[alancalverd]

The peoples with damaged mental health is now exceeding those who are dying from the virus.

Citation needed, including severity weighting of reported excess mental illnesses attributed to restrictions..
 
Death isn't the problem. Corpses are not a drain on the economy and don't infect other people. The problem is the steady rise in cases every time restrictions are relaxed. Just watch the figures over the next few weeks.

The priority vaccinatees  are obviously those most likely to suffer serious symptoms. These are the sick and elderly, i.e. the people least likely to infect anyone else.

The R rate is a direct function of human interaction. As long as there is a pool of infection, removing restrictions simply increases R, so it isn't a good indicator of when to derestrict.

[Bored chemist]

The peoples with damaged mental health is now exceeding those who are dying fromthe virus.

Is this related to living in a country where lots of people are dying needlessly?
That's certainly not good for mental health.
Do you think raising the death rate (as you advocate)  will help people's mental health?

[alancalverd]

peoples with damaged mental health is now exceeding those who are dying from the virus.

That's comforting to know.

1 in 4 people will experience a mental health problem of some kind each year in England

Yes,there's a serious problem. But that figure was from a survey in  2007. I don't think the figure has changed significantly this year.

Best figures I can find suggest a 2% increase in "suicidal thoughts" since 2019, which you need to compare with a 20% increase in death rate.

[Bored chemist]

It's difficult to assess mental health at the best of times.
A pandemic, where some people are reluctant to visit their doctor (due to understandable concerns of spread of a virus in a"waiting room" makes it a particularly hard thing to track.
There's one outcome that's pretty easy to be sure about.
Suicides are tragic, but fairly accurately counted. Here's what the BMJ has to say about them.

"a reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA11; Victoria, Australia13; England14) or a fall (Japan,9 Norway15) in the early months of the pandemic. "
from
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352
Though they also say
 Evidence from previous epidemics suggests a short term decrease in suicide can occur initially—possibly linked to a “honeymoon period” or “pulling together” phenomenon.5 Trends in certain groups may be hidden when looking at overall rates, and the National Child Mortality Database has identified a concerning signal that deaths by suicide among under 18s may have increased during the first phase of lockdown in the UK.16

So the picture isn't entirely clear (it never is) but there does not seem to be any clear increase in that indicator of ill health.

[Petrochemicals]

The peoples with damaged mental health is now exceeding those who are dying from the virus.

Citation needed, including severity weighting of reported excess mental illnesses attributed to restrictions..
 
Death isn't the problem. Corpses are not a drain on the economy and don't infect other people.

Sweeden still isn't being obedient Alan, they are doing it in different ways.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

But that's those Scandinavians for you. I think really we should invade them. Unfortunately the US is also doing just about as bad as Europe, except Germany listed statistics, and Japan, how do they do it?

If death isn't a problem perhaps we should shoot each other, either in a war or genocide, oh if only there were someone in history who we could look to for an example, where oh where? Can you think of anyone Halan, reputation for efficiency,  we could have a New emerge  rally. Maybe Rudolph will visit Scotland this Christmas and make us an offer, but santa might be goering off at himler about goballs all again?

[alancalverd]

except Germany listed statistics, and Japan, how do they do it?

Germany now seems to have lifted its quarantine restrictions and has overtaken the UK in terms of daily infections.

Japan is likewise showing a strong seasonal rise but at a tenth of European levels .

How do they do it? Well, the only available tactic to date has been quarantine and masks, and all the evidence shows that these work. Problem is that they are too bloody obvious and proven successful - there's no political or economic gain to be made from either.

[Bored chemist]

If death isn't a problem perhaps we should shoot each other,

Taken in context, Alan's remark about deaths not being the problem compared to the sick might be taken as meaning that we should shoot those severely affected- notably the elderly and infirm. (I doubt that's what he meant, but it sort of could be...).
Funny thing is, that seems to be a policy you nearly agree with.

We have painted our societies into a corner with life extending treatment, not that you should throw among others my parents onto the bonfire, but  complete servitude to one smaller area of the populace and the fixation on death is not healthy.

[alancalverd]

When the feces is hitting the  fan in a big way, you have to do some triage. In the last century it gradually dawned on the military that corpses aren't a problem: the enemy can just step over them. But serious injuries tie up enemy resources and impede progress in the short term, demoralise the reserves and civilians in the medium term, and present a longterm burden on the society you are trying to defeat. In consequence, a lot of development went into sublethal munitions that would simply remove a leg or pepper the victim with shrapnel that would take hours of exquisite surgery to remove before the wounds became infected.

Thus with COVID. 4% lethality is not a lot, particularly if it is biased towards the elderly and infirm. But 20% serious complications arising from an inevitable 100% infection will seriously damage the economy for ever, both directly (by hospitalising the middle-aged) and indirectly (by making the country a no-go area for visitors and a no-leave area for would-be traders and goods).

As of today the UK has infected 2.7% of its citizens and the USA, 3.8%, so there is some way to go, but both governments seem intent on pressing towards 10% by the end of January. My guess is that is the point at which the health sector becomes saturated and any semblance of civilised life will increase R without bound, but burying the dead gets a lot easier when you have to ban religious ceremonies and just chuck them in a pit of lime. 

[Petrochemicals]

except Germany listed statistics, and Japan, how do they do it?

Germany now seems to have lifted its quarantine restrictions and has overtaken the UK in terms of daily infections.

Japan is likewise showing a strong seasonal rise but at a tenth of European levels .

How do they do it? Well, the only available tactic to date has been quarantine and masks, and all the evidence shows that these work. Problem is that they are too bloody obvious and proven successful - there's no political or economic gain to be made from either.

Germany has now imposed restrictions again, I never did believe their figures, they are by no means an island. The UK does not show masks to work. The USA is doing just as well led by trump.

Sweden has not collapsed and China will be innoculating people until 2025.

[alancalverd]

Sweden has not collapsed

Indeed, the rock is still there, but as of today 3.2% of the Swedish population has been infected with COVID, which is worse then the UK (2.7%) and almost as bad as the USA (3.8%). Not that you have any interest in the facts, of course.

Everybody (except you) knows that masks work. Everybody knows that parachutes work. But everybody knows they only work if you wear them properly and at the right time.

[acsinuk]

We had several vaccines ready for testing months ago but governments lacked the courage to insist on testing them on from volunteers of fit elderly in care homes until now; 3 months too late.
Why hasn't the Oxford Zeneca vaccine been Emergency Use Authorised yet.  More unnecessary delay!!
Let us stop wasting time on technicalities and get on and do what is for the common good. by vaccinating quickly in level 3 areas.

[alancalverd]

Technicalities such as, for instance, stability, reproducibility, efficacy, quality control in quantity production, toxicity, dose tolerability, contraindicated concomitants,..........

Oxford were advertising for healthy volunteers back in March. I assume that you didn't put yourself forward, so what right do you have to expose others en masse to an unknown and potentially lethal risk? Not content with abandoning quarantine and exposing the entire population to a known risk, you now want to take those least likely to be infected (now that the government has given up on its germ warfare policy) and dose them with an unproven witches' brew. Whose side are you on?

[Bored chemist]

We had several vaccines ready for testing months ago but governments lacked the courage to insist on testing them on from volunteers of fit elderly in care homes until now; 3 months too late.
Why hasn't the Oxford Zeneca vaccine been Emergency Use Authorised yet.  More unnecessary delay!!
Let us stop wasting time on technicalities and get on and do what is for the common good. by vaccinating quickly in level 3 areas.

Have you noticed that, every time you make a suggestion, it turns out not to make much sense?
" insist on testing them on from volunteers of fit elderly"

[alancalverd]

Captain: "Check doors locked, brakes on, airbrakes closed, flaps 20, trim to climb,  instruments set, controls free, cowl flaps open, fuel on and full boost, oil pressures at half power, request departure, advance to full power, release brakes"

"Let us stop wasting time on technicalities and get on and do what is for the common good."

That's why they keep the cockpit door locked.

[Petrochemicals]

Indeed, the rock is still there, but as of today 3.2% of the Swedish population has been infected with COVID, which is worse then the UK (2.7%) and almost as bad as the USA (3.8%). Not that you have any interest in the facts, of course.

27000 versus 31000 per 1M people is not of significance, nor really is sweden 742 deaths per 1M populace versus the UKs 923, but that was my point there is not significant difference(EVEN THOUGH AN EXTRA 30% MORTALITY DOES GRANT FAVOUR TO SWEDENS PHILOSOPY ON MANAGEMENT). One might thing you where being frugal with the truth.

Everybody (except you) knows that masks work. Everybody knows that parachutes work. But everybody knows they only work if you wear them properly and at the right time.

Is it  correct that every body (except me) agrees that the non-failure of masks in the UK is down to the fact that the UK populace is using face masks yet this use of face masks is not the use of face masks that is under question but the manner that other face masks are worn mean Alan isn't wrong yet and that they do work in circumstances that remain undescribed by the venerable Member and are certainly not the facemask usage that is under question. Yet sweden is no better.


# lockdown 2023

[alancalverd]

27000 versus 31000 per 1M people is not of significance, nor really is sweden 742 deaths per 1M populace versus the UKs 923,

In my book 27 is less than 31, which suggests that despite a much higher population density the UK was doing better that Sweden in restricting infection.

The period between infection and death is between 4 weeks and 6 months, average probably 6 weeks, so in  a rapidly changing infection rate you need to look at  deaths "down the line". AFAIK there is no difference in treatment anywhere in the civilised world: oxygen followed by ventilation, with dexamethasone or similar anti-inflammatory and whatever treatment is required for secondary infections.

It is absolutely true that the UK government's attempt to rid the country of old people by deliberately infecting their retirement homes would have been a war crime but the overall fatality rate since then seems to have stabilised at around 4 - 5% in all civilised countries.   

[Bored chemist]

27000 versus 31000 per 1M people is not of significance,

the families and friends of 4000 people per million probably disagree.
It's about an 12% change (or 14% if you consider 27 as the baseline).
If that was my pay rise, I'd think it was significant.

[Petrochemicals]

27000 versus 31000 per 1M people is not of significance, nor really is sweden 742 deaths per 1M populace versus the UKs 923,

In my book 27 is less than 31, which suggests that despite a much higher population density the UK was doing better that Sweden in restricting infection.

The period between infection and death is between 4 weeks and 6 months, average probably 6 weeks, so in  a rapidly changing infection rate you need to look at  deaths "down the line". AFAIK there is no difference in treatment anywhere in the civilised world: oxygen followed by ventilation, with dexamethasone or similar anti-inflammatory and whatever treatment is required for secondary infections.

It is absolutely true that the UK government's attempt to rid the country of old people by deliberately infecting their retirement homes would have been a war crime but the overall fatality rate since then seems to have stabilised at around 4 - 5% in all civilised countries.   

Basically your wrong then? But not one Hitler so we are improving a little anyway.

As for population density, we've been there before, remember Canada  doing far worse than sweden in those stakes. Sweden 15 percent total more infe tions 30percent total less deathsless. Hmm mfff facts fpffffpppf.

[alancalverd]

As has been mentioned several times before, "COVID death"" is an arbitrary political decision, which accounts for the impossible reduction (in August) in total COVID deaths reported for the UK. The inescapable truth is excess deaths, but 

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

explains why even this statistic is very difficult to interpret in Sweden, which has an anomalous age distribution. You might consider looking at the stats for Belarus where the population anomaly is even more remarkable, if you have a serious interest in the subject.

There are two important numbers to consider. R is a measure of the effectiveness of preventive procedures, but varies so much from day to day that it is difficult to compare between nations. Death rate per infection is a measure of effectiveness of treatment, but again is difficult to compare because the quality and quantity of testing is so variable.   

[Petrochemicals]

As has been mentioned several times before, "COVID death"" is an arbitrary political decision, which accounts for the impossible reduction (in August) in total COVID deaths reported for the UK. The inescapable truth is excess deaths, but 

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

explains why even this statistic is very difficult to interpret in Sweden, which has an anomalous age distribution. You might consider looking at the stats for Belarus where the population anomaly is even more remarkable, if you have a serious interest in the subject.

There are two important numbers to consider. R is a measure of the effectiveness of preventive procedures, but varies so much from day to day that it is difficult to compare between nations. Death rate per infection is a measure of effectiveness of treatment, but again is difficult to compare because the quality and quantity of testing is so variable.   

Basically your wrong then.

Face asks do not work. If we are on about the face mask wearing antics of the British public.

Everybody (except you) knows that