[Bored chemist]

President Trump has taken a couple of new vaccines

too late.
And, since he took two there's no way to know which (if either) worked.

We live in a state of fear, with leaders who just cruise along trying to please health and safety officials their own bank balances  but not thinking about the common good of the rest and younger population.

[alancalverd]

President Trump has taken a couple of new vaccines and if he is allowed to why aren't we?

because they obviously don't work. You can, however, volunteer for a clinical trial if you feel lucky.

We live in a state of fear, with leaders who just cruise along trying to please health and safety officials but not thinking about the common good of the rest and younger population.

Sadly, politicians (not "leaders", please - we are talking about puppets with no leadership qualities) are trying to please the idiots who might vote for them, and their fellow shareholders and prospective employers, by ignoring the qualified and experienced officials charged with protecting the common good. 

Your fear is entirely justified. A dangerous virus is on the loose, encouraged to spread by an incompetent government. 

[Bored chemist]

Here's an interesting stat for you.
What do these countries/ territories have in common?
Comoros
Sao Tome and Principe
Djibouti
San Marino
Saint Pierre Miquelon
Liechtenstein
Antigua and Barbuda
Barbados
Dominica
Papua New Guinea
Mongolia
British Virgin Islands
Isle of Man
Cambodia
Cayman Islands
Bermuda
Seychelles
Fiji
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Brunei
Laos
Western Sahara
Solomon Islands

They are all currently reporting fewer covid cases than the White house.

(Based on worldometer and some story I read on line)

[Petrochemicals]

This is quite interesting,

Newcastle and nothumbria uni's have around 2000 cases between them in about a week.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-more-than-1-000-students-at-newcastle-university-have-tested-positive-over-the-past-week-12099193

[acsinuk]

According to the Metro there are 1,003 cases at Newcastle university of the 28,000 students and 6,000 staff. Let us wait for the 2 weeks quarantine to finish and then re-assess the situation.
Looking at the Diamond Princess ship example to predict the result; out of the 34,000 we should have 20% catch the virus like 6,800 people who  become infected and about 100 should die.   If that does not happen then we have already reached a percentage herd immunity.  I.E if only 10 die then we are 90% herd immune.

[Bored chemist]

According to the Metro there are 1,003 cases at Newcastle university of the 28,000 students and 6,000 staff. Let us wait for the 2 weeks quarantine to finish and then re-assess the situation.
Looking at the Diamond Princess ship example to predict the result; out of the 34,000 we should have 20% catch the virus like 6,800 people who  become infected and about 100 should die.   If that does not happen then we have already reached a percentage herd immunity.  I.E if only 10 die then we are 90% herd immune.

Ever been on a cruise ship?
Ever been in a university hall of residence?
Ever noticed that, roughly speaking, one lot are the grandparents of the other?
Ever pondered  how that might make a difference to your assessment of immunity to a disease noted for disproportionately affecting the elderly?

Ever, in general, stopped to think before you post?

[alancalverd]

Absence of death is not evidence of immunity. Unlike colds and common winter flu, the disease is long-term disabling for many of those it does not kill. There is no evidence of even short-term immunity to COVID.

Cruise ships provide a good example of what should be done: central, professionally controlled food and housekeeping, with small family groups isolatable in comfortable, selfcontained, airconditioned rooms. Pretty much like an isolation hospital, yet still resulting in 20% infection rates. Not many student residences come up to that standard.

[acsinuk]

On 9th October I wrote this "   According to the Metro there are 1,003 cases at Newcastle university of the 28,000 students and 6,000 staff. Let us wait for the 2 weeks quarantine to finish and then re-assess the situation.
Looking at the Diamond Princess ship example to predict the result; out of the 34,000 we should have 20% catch the virus like 6,800 people who  become infected and about 100 should die.   If that does not happen then we have already reached a percentage herd immunity.  I.E if only 10 die then we are 90% herd immune."
So we have reached a high level of herd immunity and all lockdowns in these previously high R areas should be relaxed immediately.

[evan_au]

One US university did some computer modeling to discover the expected rates of infection.
- When they resumed classes, infection rates soared far above the predictions.

It turned out that students did not behave as predicted in the computer model - they didn't like masks and they didn't stop partying.
- Maybe the computer guys should have consulted the psychology department?

[acsinuk]

Thanks Evan
But my point is that Covirus 19 is not the killer we are being told that is it?
If 90% of the students test positive and none die then I consider that they are at least 99% herd immune.  Testing really is a total waste of time and money. 
The only place testing would be acceptable would be at airports and docks where 100% temperature test; as standard procedure be made.   Anyone having a temperature is marched to an onsite mobile lab so the result is known immediately.  If they are OK let them proceed.  If they are Covid19 positive them free ambulance them to their 14 day isolation home/hotel and inform the police to check on them.

[Bored chemist]

Testing really is a total waste of time and money. 

Unless, you want to gain information like

If 90% of the students test positive and none die then I consider that they are at least 99% herd immune.

Though, actually, that's not what herd immunity is about.

But my point is that Covirus 19 is not the killer we are being told that is it?

We are being told it has killed tens of thousands in the UK.
It has killed tens of thousands in the UK
It is the killer we are being told that it is.


Next time you are going to post something, please just have a look through it and ask yourself "What contradictions are BC going to point out here?"
Then either sort them out, or don't post it.
That will save us both time.

[alancalverd]

Looking at the Diamond Princess ship example to predict the result; out of the 34,000 we should have 20% catch the virus like 6,800 people who  become infected and about 100 should die.   If that does not happen then we have already reached a percentage herd immunity. 

No. A cruise ship is a perfect environment for effective lockdown since all the passengers can be confined to individual or family cabins with separate ventilation systems and the crew have complete control of feeding, cleaning, etc. Even more to the point, in international waters the captain has absolute authority over everyone and everything through an unquestioned hierarchy of trained and proven competent officers.

Despite this, 20% of the passengers and 15% of the crew were infected and 14 passengers died.

The questions everyone should answer before advocating a loosening of quarantine are

(a) which member of your immediate family would you like to be hospitalised?

(b) which member of your extended family (uncles, aunts, nephews, nieces and in-laws)  would you like to die?

If not yours, why mine?   

[alancalverd]

But my point is that Covirus 19 is not the killer we are being told that is it?

The numbers haven't changed much. Around 20% of positives end up in hospital and around 20% of those, die. There has been some thinning out in the UK thanks to the early government intervention of infecting the most vulnerable in care homes, and there is some evidence that aggressive therapy can achieve recovery without full mechanical ventilation, but whilst you might regard 4% fatalities of other people's relatives as acceptable, few people welcome the temporary incapacity and longterm disability associated with an entirely preventable disease.       

[alancalverd]

The only place testing would be acceptable would be at airports and docks where 100% temperature test; as standard procedure be made. 

The unique problem with COVID is the infectivity of asymptomatic carriers. Having a COVID-related fever means that you have probably been spreading the bug for at least 5 days. Not having a fever means that you may have been spreading the bug for less than 5 days.

[Bored chemist]

Anyone having a temperature is marched to...

I presume that's the tautological sense of "having a temperature"- anyone with a temperature above absolute zero.

If you mean the colloquial sense of having a fever then...
How hot does that mean?
Normal temperature is 35.3-37.7°C  *
So, where do you put the "cut off"? If you choose the middle of the range then you will pointlessly delay roughly half the passengers, but also let half the infected passengers through.
SIs that actually helpful?

What's the point of testing the people who have an elevated temperature- because they have a cold or toothache or, have been running to catch a plane (or their onward connection)?

Why don't you want to test the people who have covid but, for one reason or another (maybe aspirin), don't have an elevated temperature?

If you actually have an

onsite mobile lab so the result is known immediately.

why not test everyone?
Sure, ithe delay will piss them off, but that's the way it goes; we are trying to quench a pandemic..
Incidentally, if the lab is on site, it doesn't need to be mobile. Hardly matters, it will be a box with a "Staff wanted" sign on it.

*
https://www.bmj.com/content/359/bmj.j5468

[alancalverd]

There are two ways of achieving herd immunity

1. Vaccinate at least 80% of the herd with a proven effective vaccine and prevent potential carriers entering the herd.

2. Kill all those who would die from the disease, before they reproduce.

1. We don't have a proven effective vaccine for COVID19, and whilst 80% seems to work OK for childhood diseases, we don't know whether it is a large enough fraction to effectively contain COVID, and we don't have established immigration controls to prevent asymptomatic carriers from the third world (particularly the USA) entering the country.

2. All we know about the humans most vulnerable to COVID is that most of them have already reproduced.

[Petrochemicals]

Sweden is looking interesting, even though there are cases the mortality rate is persistently low. It may be a change in how they report deaths but if not they have worked a minor miracle considering that deaths have not been in double figures since mid July and the UK and other countries still have a higher overall mortality rate

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

[alancalverd]

Sweden is interesting for many reasons, not the least being a very low population density outside of Stockholm (where the figures are consistent with outer London) - about 10% of the UK population, occupying twice the area of the UK. Also a history of public trust in and compliance with a competent government.

At its peak, the weekly excess death rate in Sweden matched that of the UK but the peak was shorter and the second wave seems not to have hit just yet - oddly, the  present overall death rate is below the 5-year average!

Worldometers is not a reliable source for comparisons  as it quotes "COVID deaths", the statistics of which are not much better than a guess. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

[Petrochemicals]

Sweden is interesting for many reasons, not the least being a very low population density outside of Stockholm (where the figures are consistent with outer London) - about 10% of the UK population, occupying twice the area of the UK. Also a history of public trust in and compliance with a competent government.

At its peak, the weekly excess death rate in Sweden matched that of the UK but the peak was shorter and the second wave seems not to have hit just yet - oddly, the  present overall death rate is below the 5-year average!

Worldometers is not a reliable source for comparisons  as it quotes "COVID deaths", the statistics of which are not much better than a guess. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

No world ometers uses the government data, that is clear misrepresentation. Plus the 2nd wave has hit, just not deaths, incase you where not aware of that.

[evan_au]

in international waters the captain has absolute authority over everyone and everything through an unquestioned hierarchy of trained and proven competent officers.

I believe it was the Japanese port authorities who forced the Diamond Princess into quarantine. That is when social distancing was enforced. Before that, the crew of the ship were purely focused on everyone having the time of their life, without a worry in the world.

Apparently, on the Ruby Princess (which docked in Sydney with COVID passengers onboard):
- The medical officer strongly suspected that passengers had COVID-19 (she arranged for the ship to be met by ambulances with full PPE, for 2 ill passengers; she knew they didn't have influenza, as she could test for flu onboard)
- But the other passengers report that there was no warning to them about risks of disease or social distancing
- So the remaining passengers disembarked with no medical checks or warnings; a number were later diagnosed with COVID-19, after having spread out in a radius >1,000km from Sydney.

As someone who has enjoyed a number of cruises, I have received a flood of emails advertising cruises when obviously none would be sailing anytime soon.
- But recently, I saw one with quite a different tone, actually talking about precautions they would be taking to minimize the chance of an outbreak
- For example, a move away from buffet dining to more restaurant-style dining, and encouraging use of masks
- Personally, I would enjoy another cruise, but not until after I've been vaccinated, and a reasonable fraction of other passengers have, too
- I suspect that for the next few years, cruises will have a slightly more somber tone, with regular reminders about masks and more intrusive health precautions than just hand-washing at the restaurant.

Here is the health advice from one cruise line (other vendors are available). Unlike their usual nemesis (Norovirus), asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is a real problem for health plans like this.
See: https://www.princess.com/plan/cruise-with-confidence/cruise-health/