[alancalverd]

No world ometers uses the government data, that is clear misrepresentation.

Read the small print. They use government data for "deaths from COVID", which, as I have pointed out before, is fairly meaningless since most victims die from common diseases like pneumonia that they cannot shake off because their cardiac and respiratory systems are compromised by the reaction to COVID.

Death is fairly unequivocal, and excess deaths during an epidemic likewise, but "deaths from COVID" is not a reliable statistic.

[Edwina Lee (OP)]

Sweden is looking interesting, even though there are cases the mortality rate is persistently low. It may be a change in how they report deaths but if not they have worked a minor miracle considering that deaths have not been in double figures since mid July and the UK and other countries still have a higher overall mortality rate

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden has a sparse, well educated, caring population. So when the herd immunity strategy at the beginning began to look wrong, they changed strategy, and the population trusted and followed the guidance of authority, which is basically very simple.

Not so with many other countries. So they suffered and are about to suffer a really bad winter ahead.

[Petrochemicals]

No world ometers uses the government data, that is clear misrepresentation.

Read the small print. They use government data for "deaths from COVID", which, as I have pointed out before, is fairly meaningless since most victims die from common diseases like pneumonia that they cannot shake off because their cardiac and respiratory systems are compromised by the reaction to COVID.

Death is fairly unequivocal, and excess deaths during an epidemic likewise, but "deaths from COVID" is not a reliable statistic.

No Alan I AM arguing the point they use government data, you, if you remember where arguing the point that they make it all up.

Worldometers is not a reliable source for comparisons  as it quotes "COVID deaths", the statistics of which are not much better than a guess. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

World ometers are a guess was your stance, where as government data is a fact. That was your stance, please do not switch to mine

[Petrochemicals]

Sweden is looking interesting, even though there are cases the mortality rate is persistently low. It may be a change in how they report deaths but if not they have worked a minor miracle considering that deaths have not been in double figures since mid July and the UK and other countries still have a higher overall mortality rate

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden has a sparse, well educated, caring population. So when the herd immunity strategy at the beginning began to look wrong, they changed strategy, and the population trusted and followed the guidance of authority, which is basically very simple.

Not so with many other countries. So they suffered and are about to suffer a really bad winter ahead.

Yes but they are not recommending masks and the pubs and clubs are open along with universities and schools, yet they are doing far better, certainly better than the poster child Chech Republic.

[alancalverd]

World ometers are a guess was your stance, where as government data is a fact. That was your stance, please do not switch to mine

Please read the small print, and think.

The worldometers link you gave quotes "coronavirus cases" and "coronavirus deaths".

Nobody knows how many cases there are because nobody is doing 100% daily testing and many cases are asymptomatic so the patient does not present for testing. So for "cases" read "known diagnosed cases".

Most people who die with COVID do not die from it, but from common bacterial infectoins that they cannot fight because their cardiovascular or pulmonary system is compromised by COVID, so "COVID deaths" is a matter of opinion. Not sure what hey do in Sweden, but in the UK the official stats only list deaths within 28 days of a COVID diagnosis, whereas the actual death of COVID-infected patients tends to occur some time later, so the earlier you get diagnosed, the less likely you are to become a statistic!

Anyway the interesting figures from Sweden will appear in the next 4 - 6 weeks. With daily cases now around 1500, we can expect a few excess deaths by the end of November. And the gross figure of 5.1% fatality shows that the Swedes do not have a magic treatment.

Nor are they much better at prevention than the Brits.  Scaled up to the same population, they would have had  39,650 deaths to date, compared with the UK 45,400, and given the much smaller population density of Sweden,  you could argue that they are actually doing rather badly.

[Petrochemicals]

World ometers are a guess was your stance, where as government data is a fact. That was your stance, please do not switch to mine

Please read the small print, and think.

The worldometers link you gave quotes "coronavirus cases" and "coronavirus deaths".
.

No, as reported by governments, not made up as you suggest. Please do not knowingly misrepresent the site nor divert from the point you are contravening the facts and counterarguing your own point.

[alancalverd]

"As reported by governments" and "scientific fact" are very different things. I have not suggested any of the statistics was "made up" but you really need to read and understand the small print before reaching any conclusions about them. The details appear to be honest, and they indicate exactly what I have pointed out many times before:

Currently, the only valid measure of control of COVID is seasonally adjusted excess deaths. 

The gross fatality rate from known  COVID infection in Sweden is no different from anywhere else.

Adjusting for population density (since the only vector for COVID is other people), Sweden is doing no better than the UK  at controlling the spread of the disease.

I haven't doubted any of the figures, but simply drawn obvious conclusions from exactly what the Swedish government has told us in its own words.

[Petrochemicals]

Worldometers is not a reliable source for comparisons  as it quotes "COVID deaths", the statistics of which are not much better than a guess. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

"As reported by governments" and "scientific fact" are very different things. I have not suggested any of the statistics was "made up" but you really need to read and understand the small print before reaching any conclusions about them.

You must be taking the piss!

[alancalverd]

 No. I'm taking the reports at face value.

Government reports of "COVID deaths" depend on what politicians have deemed to be COVID deaths, multiplied by the probability that a certifying doctor will record it as such rather than his professionally diagnosed cause of death (which is usually pneumonia or cardiovascular failure exacerbated by an inflammatory response to COVID).

In the UK, for instance, the political definition is a death within 28 days of a positive COVID test, so the earlier you  test for it, the less likely you are to record it as a "COVID death" even if it was the only cause of death.  This has the advantage of proving that "early tests save lives", even if they don't!

Excess deaths is an absolutely robust statistic, and is not a happy one, anywhere.

[Petrochemicals]

No. I'm taking the reports at face value.

Government reports of "COVID deaths" depend on what politicians have deemed to be COVID deaths, multiplied by the probability that a certifying doctor will record it as such rather than his professionally diagnosed cause of death (which is usually pneumonia or cardiovascular failure exacerbated by an inflammatory response to COVID).

In the UK, for instance, the political definition is a death within 28 days of a positive COVID test, so the earlier you  test for it, the less likely you are to record it as a "COVID death" even if it was the only cause of death.  This has the advantage of proving that "early tests save lives", even if they don't!

Excess deaths is an absolutely robust statistic, and is not a happy one, anywhere.

Worldometers is not a reliable source for comparisons  as it quotes "COVID deaths", the statistics of which are not much better than a guess. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

"As reported by governments" and "scientific fact" are very different things. I have not suggested any of the statistics was "made up" but you really need to read and understand the small print before reaching any conclusions about them.

You must be taking the piss!

You are taking the piss, you post contradictory points, then you post the post above this one.

[Slickscientist]

Hi,
gov.uk for covid-19 updates in the uk or the office for national statistics website for in depth covid data.

You can also now use the test and trace app to see what tier level your area is in.

[Slickscientist]

The rules of what counts as a death and what does not are very complicated; they are not that accurate but they are the best information we have about the virus.

[alancalverd]

There's not much doubt about what counts as a death.  If Joe Bloggs can't phone the office to complain about the mistake, he's dead enough to remain on the register.

There is however very little certainty about cause of death. Even where pathologists have the time and inclination to carry out a postmortem, in the absence of obvious trauma they record an opinion, not a fact. That opinion is heavily influenced by medical fashion and in the case of COVID, by political definition.

The only credible statistic of the current pandemic is seasonally adjusted excess deaths. Indeed it is the only figure that matters. 

[alancalverd]

Excess deaths is an absolutely robust statistic, and is not a happy one, anywhere.

. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

You are taking the piss, you post contradictory points, then you post the post above this one.

I don't see any contradiction.

[Bored chemist]

you post contradictory points,

I didn't see a contradiction.
Could you point it out please?

[Petrochemicals]

Excess deaths is an absolutely robust statistic, and is not a happy one, anywhere.

. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

You are taking the piss, you post contradictory points, then you post the post above this one.

I see contradiction

Im glad you agree that you are a piss taker.

[Bored chemist]

Excess deaths is an absolutely robust statistic, and is not a happy one, anywhere.

. But all governments publish excess death stats, which are a matter of fact.

You are taking the piss, you post contradictory points, then you post the post above this one.

I see contradiction

Im glad you agree that you are a piss taker.

Alan,
What do you think he's going to be if/ when he grows up?

[Slickscientist]

Hey guys,
I am not going to read the last posts in detail but you need to calm down a bit. I know scientists love a bit of Argie-barge sometimes but this is getting a little out of hand.
STAY CALM, DON’T COMPLAIN, SAVE LIVES...
From Salik Imran(a student in secondary school).

[Slickscientist]

There are a lot of quotes there ...

[alancalverd]

Alan,
What do you think he's going to be if/ when he grows up?

Leader of the Conservative Party? President of the European Union? Unless he was born in the USA, in which case God Help America.