[acsinuk]

Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will not cause great hardships by increasing unemployment resulting in financial inflation. But do keep clean and away from crowds.

[Bored chemist]

Let God decide

That's a silly thing to say.
If there's  a God then we have no choice but to let Him decide. After all, He's all powerful- what could we do about it?.
If there's no God then clearly He can't decide.

By all means pray if you want, but don't kid yourself that it's something to discuss on a science page.

[chiralSPO]

A storm descends on a small town, and the downpour soon turns into a flood. As the waters rise, the local preacher kneels in prayer on the church porch, surrounded by water. By and by, one of the townsfolk comes up the street in a canoe.

"Better get in, Preacher. The waters are rising fast."

"No," says the preacher. "I have faith in the Lord. He will save me."

Still the waters rise. Now the preacher is up on the balcony, wringing his hands in supplication, when another guy zips up in a motorboat.

"Come on, Preacher. We need to get you out of here. The levee's gonna break any minute."

Once again, the preacher is unmoved. "I shall remain. The Lord will see me through."

After a while the levee breaks, and the flood rushes over the church until only the steeple remains above water. The preacher is up there, clinging to the cross, when a helicopter descends out of the clouds, and a state trooper calls down to him through a megaphone.

"Grab the ladder, Preacher. This is your last chance."

Once again, the preacher insists the Lord will deliver him.

And, predictably, he drowns.

A pious man, the preacher goes to heaven. After a while he gets an interview with God, and he asks the Almighty, "Lord, I had unwavering faith in you. Why didn't you deliver me from that flood?"

God shakes his head. "What did you want from me? I sent you two boats and a helicopter."

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Imagine that graph with 85 as the average, dotted line will be into the 200-300 level. Thats what we delt with a few years ago, or were we not able to deal with it ? Should we have shut down every year ?

The health care system capacity can be temporary increased just like the setup of emergency hospitals in China. When things got under control, they can be dismantled. The need to shut down depends on the severity of the case, but in the end the decision will be made based on cost and benefit analysis of the authorities. Hence electing competent government officials is an important contribution could be made by citizens.

That is a yes then.

[hamdani yusuf]

Imagine that graph with 85 as the average, dotted line will be into the 200-300 level. Thats what we delt with a few years ago, or were we not able to deal with it ? Should we have shut down every year ?

The health care system capacity can be temporary increased just like the setup of emergency hospitals in China. When things got under control, they can be dismantled. The need to shut down depends on the severity of the case, but in the end the decision will be made based on cost and benefit analysis of the authorities. Hence electing competent government officials is an important contribution could be made by citizens.

That is a yes then.

Which question did you answer?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Imagine that graph with 85 as the average, dotted line will be into the 200-300 level. Thats what we delt with a few years ago, or were we not able to deal with it ? Should we have shut down every year ?

The health care system capacity can be temporary increased just like the setup of emergency hospitals in China. When things got under control, they can be dismantled. The need to shut down depends on the severity of the case, but in the end the decision will be made based on cost and benefit analysis of the authorities. Hence electing competent government officials is an important contribution could be made by citizens.

That is a yes then.

Which question did you answer?

No, you answered the original question with building of extra hospitals etc. Should this provision be made every year for flu ?

[hamdani yusuf]

No, you answered the original question with building of extra hospitals etc. Should this provision be made every year for flu ?

It depends on the severity of the flu strain prominent in each year. But that doesn't mean that we must be panic. What do you think panic people would do?

[Bored chemist]

Panic is irrational, pretty much by definition.  So it's not the right thing to do.

Seeing that many people considered quarantine to be a bank holiday is grounds for rather severe action. 
That's not the same thing.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

It depends on the severity of the flu strain prominent in each year. But that doesn't mean that we must be panic. What do you think panic people would do?

Pretty much what they are doing already, especially in britian, low cases in the uk but the shelves in italy are far better stocked due to uk panic buying.   2 years ago the flu went through the country in a slightly less quick but just as lethal form, but for some reason its amatuer dramatics time.

[Bored chemist]

years ago the flu went through the country

Which country?

[alancalverd]

Let God decide

Almost every human endeavour, from cleaning your teeth to eradicating smallpox, is obviously made in defiance of God's Will. The few exceptions include entirely pointless activities such as flying to the moon and inventing string theory.

[acsinuk]

Our local church is praying that we will     "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that panicking politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."
To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.
But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.

[Bored chemist]

Our local church

crowds and the over 70's

Snap!

[alancalverd]

Our local church is praying that we will     "Let God decide

And what makes you think that he will listen to you? More to the point, since this is a science forum, how will you know if he does?

Time to repeat a story I've told before in this forum. I recall a speaker giving Witness (I used to sing in a church choir - unusual for a Jewish atheist but they needed a bass, and a gig is a gig). He said that his daughter was dying during the Blitz, so he prayed for one night's silence so she could die in peace. His prayer was answered and no bombs fell on the East End  the night she died - the Luftwaffe destroyed Coventry instead.

[chiralSPO]

with respect to the original question:
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/

[evan_au]

I like that graphic.

There is nothing we can do about deaths from heart disease or cancer - they will still be major killers after COVID-19 has come and gone.
- But the US is spending a $billion every day to treat people with heart disease, if you include the costs of lost productivity

However, we can do something to minimize deaths from COVID-19 - things like social distancing and rapid deployment of therapies which are backed by some evidence.
- Spending $trillions over 6 months does not seem like such a high cost compared to what is being spent on heart disease over a far longer timescale.

I expect that COVID-19 deaths will overtake heart disease deaths - especially in the coming winter.
- But COVID-19 deaths will decline once herd immunity and/or vaccination is achieved
- And then heart disease and cancer will again lead the league tables.
- Ironically (and sadly), COVID-19 will reduce the number of patients with heart disease and cancer.

See: https://www.cdcfoundation.org/pr/2015/heart-disease-and-stroke-cost-america-nearly-1-billion-day-medical-costs-lost-productivity

[evan_au]

One observation on the Naked Reflections podcast was that COVID-19 is exposing the rich western countries to a small taste of conditions faced every day by people in most of the world:
- People suddenly die of disease, and no treatment is available
- People have no jobs
- People are unable to travel or have holidays
- People are short of food

Perhaps it might evoke a bit of international empathy between the "haves" and the "have-nots"?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/podcasts/naked-reflections/sickness-and-health

[hamdani yusuf]

There is nothing we can do about deaths from heart disease or cancer - they will still be major killers after COVID-19 has come and gone.

Not necesarily. There are certainly something we can do about them.
https://www.wired.com/story/meet-jim-allison-the-texan-who-just-won-a-nobel-cancer-breakthrough/
Adapted from the book THE BREAKTHROUGH: Immunotherapy and the Race to Cure Cancer. Copyright (c) 2018 by Charles Graeber.

[hamdani yusuf]

Thankfully Covid-19 has finished.

https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2020/03/29/scamvangelist-declares-covid-19-finished-after-commanding-god-to-destroy-it/

[acsinuk]

Well nearly finished as we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :- 
The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM
NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly.
Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else,