[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Same 5 week pattern in the uk as everywhere else, meaning infection is not exausted,  the extra testing and carehomes are now becoming prominant in the figures. Two weeks for peak cases. The double peak in the UK and Italy for mortality is different though, households infecting themselves and the ''R' number.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Going by the 2 week rule of cases to mortalities, the rate is at about 1%, 1000 cases 2 weeks ago, 10 fatalities today, this looks pretty steady. That means about 65,000 deaths. It also means that at the height of our corona we where at 100,000 cases per day.

[alancalverd]

The only conclusion you can draw from "the numbers" is that they are pretty meaningless.

Since 80% of infections do not require any medical intervention, testing protocols vary from country to country, and tests are of dubious validity, we have no idea how many people are infected. The cause of death is not usually COVID but another respiratory infection exacerbatied by COVID, or an excessive inflammatory response to COVID, so even if a postmortem gives a positive COVID test (and why would anyone bother with a postmortem if the corpse is over 60 and probably infected?) the cvause of death may not be reported as COVID.

The only reliable statistic is excess deaths compared with the 5-year average for a given period, and that figure itself will now be distorted because the most vulnerable (aged 70 - 90) have already died - it will take another 20 years to repopulate the at-risk cohort.

The "2 week" figure  refers to the incubation period from infection to symptoms. From the appearance of disabling symptoms to death is another 4 to 6 weeks, with around 20% mortality among those admitted to hospital. 

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The only conclusion you can draw from "the numbers" is that they are pretty meaningless.

Since 80% of infections do not require any medical intervention, testing protocols vary from country to country, and tests are of dubious validity, we have no idea how many people are infected. The cause of death is not usually COVID but another respiratory infection exacerbatied by COVID, or an excessive inflammatory response to COVID, so even if a postmortem gives a positive COVID test (and why would anyone bother with a postmortem if the corpse is over 60 and probably infected?) the cvause of death may not be reported as COVID.

The only reliable statistic is excess deaths compared with the 5-year average for a given period, and that figure itself will now be distorted because the most vulnerable (aged 70 - 90) have already died - it will take another 20 years to repopulate the at-risk cohort.

The "2 week" figure  refers to the incubation period from infection to symptoms. From the appearance of disabling symptoms to death is another 4 to 6 weeks, with around 20% mortality among those admitted to hospital. 

Nope the 2 week figure is peak cases to peak  deaths as seen in countries around the globe, a 2 week lag.
 

As for the under reporting, that was more likely with limited tests and clinincal diagnosis, plus lack of testing under reporting true case numbers due to very limited accesability early on.

Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?

https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall

[alancalverd]

Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?

https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall

Precisely my point. You take a highly infectious disease with significant associated mortality and disastrous morbidity, and interpret the statistics as a Good Thing. Next step is to abolish all social restrictions and infect a new cohort.

If we could persuade more teenagers to get drunk and throw themselves under buses, the teenage mortality figures would eventually decline.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?

https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall

Precisely my point. You take a highly infectious disease with significant associated mortality and disastrous morbidity, and interpret the statistics as a Good Thing. Next step is to abolish all social restrictions and infect a new cohort.

If we could persuade more teenagers to get drunk and throw themselves under buses, the teenage mortality figures would eventually decline.

yep with the deaths of 10 million young fit healthy people. This corona is declining, with resonable factual interpolation that most of the country has now had it. I could be wrong, this could be the summer lull or effects of shielding, but you have to reccon that heard immunity is now in effect to some degree. ONS estimations of 2 to 3 thousand a day. Putting infection at the height at something like a quarter of a million people.

interpret

look whos interpreting now

[alancalverd]

The daily maximum is of little consequence - if it has any statistical value, it merely reflects changes in human behavior and the frequency of testing.

If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The daily maximum is of little consequence - if it has any statistical value, it merely reflects changes in human behavior and the frequency of testing.

If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.

The two paragraphs are contradictory, one deriles the daily mamximum, whilst the other relies on it.

[alancalverd]

I have not quoted the daily maximum, merely the reported total infections to date and the last reported daily value. Whatever the errors, they will be the same in both figures since one is merely the sum of the other, over the year to date.

If you have more reliable figures which authoritatively support your assertion that

most of the country has now had it

, we'd all be the wiser for seeing them.

It is fairly obvious that the reported number of infected people is an underestimate as many will have taken to their beds or even carried on as usual without seeking a test. It is also certain that the number of COVID-related deaths is an understimate for reasons I have stated elsewhere. 

The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.

Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.

What really annoys me is that, if it were not for COVID, I would now be on holiday in Greenland - one of the few countries to have no reported cases in the last 14 days!

[Bored chemist]

This corona is declining, with resonable factual interpolation that most of the country has now had it. I could be wrong,

You are wrong.
New cases are rising (albeit slowly)since a low point of about 300 per day in early July.
https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+deaths+uk&oq=corona+deaths+uk&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.4374j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

.

Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.

Yet the miracle of trump bolsonaro continues 14 percent of cases, but come 2 weeks it is not going to be 14 percent of victims.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.

I think their are other circumstances,  for example the ethnic mix ? Alot of warm climate mimmigrants, plus low winter mortality due to milder climates.

[Bored chemist]

.

Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.

Yet the miracle of trump bolsonaro continues 14 percent of cases, but come 2 weeks it is not going to be 14 percent of victims.

Nobdy suggested that it might be.

[Bored chemist]

The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.

I think their are other circumstances,  for example the ethnic mix ? Alot of warm climate mimmigrants, plus low winter mortality due to milder climates.

So, lots of things that Trump and Bolsonaro are not in charge of....

[alancalverd]

UK now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.061% of the population - an impressive start for a nation burdened with free healthcare, but years of bad management and political inbreeding have overcome that hurdle.

USA now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.057% of the population

Trump started late and with a much more dispersed population than Johnson, but is already ahead of Balsonaro at 0.056%. He is rapidly catching up and should overtake Johnson in a week or two, particularly if he appeals to the third umpire for an "excess deaths" count and continues to sack anyone who knows or cares about anything.

There's a pretty wide gap between this premier league and the also-rans. My prediction by the end of the year is Gold for Trump, Silver for Balsonaro, but Johnson may already have exhausted his reserves of the poor and elderly and is likely to lose the pacemaker spot and quite possibly face relegation as the professional dictators and incompetents from the Minor Countries play themselves in - this is a world knockout contest, after all. 

Hopes for Bronze for Italy seem to have faded - simply having an aged population and an amateur government is no longer enough to compete with professional cynicism and total contempt for science. Hot tip among the peloton is Iran (if they continue to play the theocracy game) with early leader Spain already losing ground.

Cynical? Moi?

[evan_au]

heard immunity is now in effect to some degree

I heard that, from the observed R₀ of COVID-19, about 60-70% of people would need to be immune for the pandemic to die out. This is the condition to achieve herd immunity.

If only 30% of the population is immune in a particular country, the virus will still experience exponential-like growth*.

We know that many cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic.

But for 60-70% of the population to be immune today, the rate of asymptomatic cases would need to increase from current estimates (some as high as 80%) to something over 99% asymptomatic.

It has proven difficult to get COVID-19 under control
- But if the asymptomatic rate was 99% or higher, it would be impossible. Contact tracing would be ineffective because there are too many asymptomatic links between symptomatic people
- A big discrepancy between 80% asymptomatic and 99% asymptomatic would have been very visible in the contact tracing and mathematical modeling
- I am inclined to think that the main difficulty with getting COVID-19 under control is that (unlike SARS), you are infectious for a day or two before symptoms appear, and people continue their daily lives for a day or two after symptoms appear before they go to get tested.

We also know that in countries like Brazil and USA there is an inadequate  public health system, so people are less likely to come forward for testing or treatment.
- An authority figure like the President saying "COVID-19 is not a problem" might persuade some of the population that its not a problem
- But I think that inadequate health care is more likely the reason for the "miracle" of Brazil and USA

In the end, the death toll is harder to hide.

*Actually, more like a logistic curve, which is exponential in its early stages.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

if it were not for COVID, I would now be on holiday in Greenland

During a visit to Denmark last year, our guide mentioned that the US President had planned a visit to Denmark to meet with the royal family of Denmark.

Later it came out that Donald Trump wanted to take over Greenland, which Denmark said would not happen. The presidential visit was promptly cancelled.

If things had gone differently, you may have been witnessing the Trump miracle first-hand...

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

UK now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.061% of the population - an impressive start for a nation burdened with free healthcare, but years of bad management and political inbreeding have overcome that hurdle.

USA now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.057% of the population

Trump started late and with a much more dispersed population than Johnson, but is already ahead of Balsonaro at 0.056%. He is rapidly catching up and should overtake Johnson in a week or two, particularly if he appeals to the third umpire for an "excess deaths" count and continues to sack anyone who knows or cares about anything.

The daily maximum is of little consequence - if it has any statistical value, it merely reflects changes in human behavior and the frequency of testing.

If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.

The trouble is alan your arguments are contradictory and erratic, the usa has around 250,000 exess mortality but has registered 6 million cases, i think you are trying to say trump is doing rather well, that must be how it sounds through gritted teeth. The US has a greater proportion of positives, running at about 2 percent statistically, surely if you factor in asymptomatic numbers you are looking at at least 6 percent, more likely at least 10 percent statistically speaking on the  concrete figures we have, this could easily be alot more. Unless Dr fauchi is fabricating positive cases to make it seem a perilous situation.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If we are similar yet ahead of the usa, at least 3.5 million cases on the factual evidence, but almost certainly more by a substantial factor

[alancalverd]

Trump is doing extremely well for a democratically elected idiot. Of course his performance pales in comparison with Stalin's wild success using the Lysenko strategy, but those glory days are past and any contribution to reducing the population under the modern rules of misgovernment is welcome. 

As I keep saying, "positives" is not a valid international comparator: you need to look at excess deaths. This year the UK is ahead at 0.081% but  USA, 0.075% with a late start and handicapped by a much lower population density, is clearly doing a thorough job of killing people by negligence and misinformation, which surely is the whole point of the competition? I think we can confidently expect a big surge in the autumn with Trump emerging as world leader.

[alancalverd]

I heard that, from the observed R0 of COVID-19, about 60-70% of people would need to be immune for the pandemic to die out. This is the condition to achieve herd immunity.

Only if the virus plays fair. Reinfection has already been reported in Hong Kong, with a subtle mutation that may become COVID-20. 

[Bored chemist]

In the slightly longer run we can hope for a vaccine.
That will increase the disparity between the USA and the rest of the world, because most places don't actually teach people that facts are unimportant or wrong. Obviously, you need to do that if you are a hard Right government who wants to get re-elected since the facts don't support your policies.
That's going to lead to a lot of Americans who refuse to be vaccinated,

It isn't clear how Boris will fair on that score.