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  5. Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
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Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?

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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #60 on: 04/09/2020 15:15:46 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34


The similarity between last week's  Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident.  A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.

There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.





[/quote]
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 04:31:38
am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?
You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?

That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alan
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #61 on: 04/09/2020 17:04:44 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 15:15:46
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34


The similarity between last week's  Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident.  A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.

There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.





Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 04:31:38
am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?
You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?

That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alan
[/quote]
Oh! I see what the problem is now.

You don't understand the difference between "There's some similarity, but there are differences of course" and
"the same thing all over again".
Not sure we can fix that.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #62 on: 04/09/2020 17:05:23 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 15:15:46
terrorist
That escalated quickly.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #63 on: 04/09/2020 17:14:22 »
Interestingly, the word is not defined in UK statute law, so I guess he can use it any way he likes.

IIRC a paid-up member of the Labour Party was prosecuted under the Terrorism Act (significantly, no longer the Prevention of Terrorism Act) for calling Jack Straw a liar during the party conference, so my pointing out that Donald Trump is a dangerous, halfwitted shadow of his political hero, certainly falls within that precedent.   
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #64 on: 04/09/2020 22:43:39 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 15:15:46
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34


The similarity between last week's  Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident.  A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.

There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.





Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 04:31:38
am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?
You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?

That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alan
[/quote]
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 17:14:22
Interestingly, the word is not defined in UK statute law, so I guess he can use it any way he likes.

IIRC a paid-up member of the Labour Party was prosecuted under the Terrorism Act (significantly, no longer the Prevention of Terrorism Act) for calling Jack Straw a liar during the party conference, so my pointing out that Donald Trump is a dangerous, halfwitted shadow of his political hero, certainly falls within that precedent.   
And worse than hitler ?
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #65 on: 04/09/2020 23:21:01 »
It would be difficult to name a democratically elected president worse than Hitler, or a prime minister more effective than Churchill, but plenty of modern politicians study their methods, along with Machiavelli.

It took Hitler 12 years to turn his country into bankrupt smoking rubble, so it's too early to judge Trump, but given Four More Years I'm sure he will make his mark in history. He certainly enjoys the public rallies and seems to have found a good set designer and speechwriter, but so far he's been a weak substitute for the real thing.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #66 on: 05/09/2020 01:34:21 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 22:43:39
And worse than hitler ?
Again your failure to understand that proper nouns in English get capital  letters makes it clear that you (rather than Alan) wrote that.

If you think Alan said that Trump is worse than Hitler, please quote the post where he said it.
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #67 on: 05/09/2020 02:20:06 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 23:21:01
It would be difficult to name a democratically elected president worse than Hitler, or a prime minister more effective than Churchill, but plenty of modern politicians study their methods, along with Machiavelli.

It took Hitler 12 years to turn his country into bankrupt smoking rubble, so it's too early to judge Trump, but given Four More Years I'm sure he will make his mark in history. He certainly enjoys the public rallies and seems to have found a good set designer and speechwriter, but so far he's been a weak substitute for the real thing.
But like hitler ?
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #68 on: 05/09/2020 10:46:10 »
Time will tell whether his aspirations will be realised. His methods are indistinguishable, but a lot depends on the stupidity of the US electorate and whether he has bribed the electoral college sufficiently this time. Unlike G W Bush, he can't rely on his brother counting the votes.

Hitler may not deserve a capital letter in English orthography, but one should at least respect the German convention. We are not barbarians, even if our cousins behave that way.
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #69 on: 05/09/2020 10:56:54 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 05/09/2020 02:20:06
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 23:21:01
It would be difficult to name a democratically elected president worse than Hitler,
...
But like hitler ?
Well, that's the bit where he makes it clear that Hitler's worse.
Did you think you had a point?
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #70 on: 05/09/2020 17:07:46 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 05/09/2020 10:46:10
Time will tell whether his aspirations will be realised. His methods are indistinguishable, but a lot depends on the stupidity of the US electorate and whether he has bribed the electoral college sufficiently this time. Unlike G W Bush, he can't rely on his brother counting the votes.

Hitler may not deserve a capital letter in English orthography, but one should at least respect the German convention. We are not barbarians, even if our cousins behave that way.
Yep, like hitler,
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #71 on: 05/09/2020 18:02:01 »
Really? Hitler was not elected by an electoral college but by popular vote. He did not need his brother to count the votes. German democracy was a lot less corrupt than the last American presidential election, and the next one is already being fought between the White House and the Post Office to decide whose votes will be counted.

 Who said  "If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed."? Returning to the subject of this thread, who told his tribe that drinking disinfectant would save them from a Chinese biological warfare plot?
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #72 on: 21/01/2021 05:53:24 »
With the cases peaking in the week after new-year here in the UK, it is a break of the 2 week peak post lockdown. It occoured too soon afterward the new year lockdown on the 4th to be related. This is either the London lockdown or the Christmas day peak, but given that the peak is in line with the increase of prior days, there is no anomalous peak jutting from the curve, it has to be as a concequences of the London lockdown on the 19th.

There is a nice peak 14 days after New year, maybe a general nationwide increace or the Christmas or new year frivolities.

The national lockdown on the 4th should have peaked around the 20th so it may get worse yet.
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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #73 on: 06/07/2021 19:19:42 »

* Screenshot_20210706_191547.jpg (208.24 kB . 1613x1015 - viewed 2115 times)
It's topped out in Brazil. I understand this is not the product of vaccines or social controls either. At the moment the mortality rate is at about 0.3%.

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #74 on: 08/07/2021 23:00:24 »
Sweden has faded almost completely.


* Screenshot_20210708_225248_com.android.chrome~2.jpg (138.05 kB . 1669x880 - viewed 2157 times)

Again not due to social control measures I believe, nor the vaccines if the rate in Britain is anything to go by. The mortality rate is lower at leastpartially because of vaccines.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is there a way to tell how widespread coronavirus is from the numbers?
« Reply #75 on: 09/07/2021 11:15:01 »
In the words of investment fund managers, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

COVID statistics are always out of date. If it takes 5 days to develop symptoms and another couple of days to report them, each data point is at least a week behind the actual infection, and it can take up to six months to die from it.

A low recent mortality rate can indicate several things. In an extended war the first soldiers to fight will be experienced professionals and the last ditch will be held by whoever can be bullied into holding a gun, so the fatality rate is likely to increase as the war reaches its conclusion. Possibly the inverse with an epidemic, particularly if your government sacrifices the elderly early on in the hope of preserving their portfolio values.  Or you might have improved treatment to delay death beyond your arbitrary cutoff date. Or indeed have vaccinated enough people to prevent a few deaths. But unless you impose a strict quarantine and border controls, you won't alter the R rate or prevent new sources arriving.   
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