[alancalverd (OP)]

However you measure it, the world is in a global economic recession, with everybody doing less of everything for the next few months. The environmental effect will be like 9/11 but on a far bigger scale. So here's an opportunity to explore the overall impact of decreasing economic activity on the entire ecosystem including human happiness, and possibly to radically review the underlying expansionist assumptions of politics and economics.

One immediate realisation has been that children are an economic burden, not an asset.

It was noticeable that cloud cover altered dramatically over the USA in the aftermath of 9/11 - the grounding of almost all flights worldwide will surely have an effect on weather, and if it is beneficial, perhaps could lead to a change in behaviour: if we can survive with less frequent travel, why not  spend longer at your destination (longer holidays, relaxed business ….) and halve the number of flights required?

Any predictions? 

[Colin2B]

It was noticeable that cloud cover altered dramatically over the USA in the aftermath of 9/11 - the grounding of almost all flights worldwide will surely have an effect on weather,

I seem to remember a comment at the time that the lack of contrails over US led to a rise in temp. I’ll see if I can find a ref

[chiralSPO]

One immediate realisation has been that children are an economic burden, not an asset.

I thought that was already common knowledge.

The first 15 years or so are a sunk cost (closer to 25 these days in the US...) But those with children in their 30s and up might see a reversal in those economics.

[evan_au]

It was noticeable that cloud cover altered dramatically over the USA in the aftermath of 9/11 - the grounding of almost all flights worldwide will surely have an effect on weather

Some recent research showed that by altering the altitude of planes by a few hundred meters, the extent of contrail generation could be greatly reduced.

During the day, contrails are fairly neutral in the weather - they reflect visible sunlight back into space before it hits the ground, and they reflect infra red from the ground back down again.

But at night, contrails continue to reflect infra-red back down to the ground, but there is no sunlight to reflect away, so they have a warming influence.

So you want to generate contrails during the day, but ensure that they are short-lived enough to dissipate before sunset...

[alancalverd (OP)]

A lot depends on the water content of the air at altitude. If the air contains supercooled water vapor the contrails can nucleate continuous cloud that would not form otherwise.

But there's a lot more (or rather a lot less) going on at the moment. Less surface travel, in particular, and a general decrease in nonessential industry, will significantly decrease anthropogenic CO2 emissions worldwide. The definitive experiment is being done at last!

On the sociological side, this is an opportunity to bring the academic year in line with the calendar year. Rather than panic about school closures, let's begin by moving school examinations to October and college entrance to January. The whole point of the long summer holiday was to free child labor for harvest, which is why in my youth the school holiday began earlier in the southwest but had a deferred week or fortnight in Scotland for the potato harvest. Something of an anachronism nowadays.

[Petrochemicals]

One immediate realisation has been that children are an economic burden, not an asset.

I thought that was already common knowledge.

The first 15 years or so are a sunk cost (closer to 25 these days in the US...) But those with children in their 30s and up might see a reversal in those economics.

Its called an investment for old age, multiply many times and you have many children to look after you. Keep multiplying and you shall be proud and rich in your old age with honour and respect..

And the earth will die.

[alancalverd (OP)]

you have many children to look after you.

But they don't, in western society. Almost nobody contributes to the economy before the age of 20. Your pension is paid by the working population, either from taxation or from profits on invested pension funds, and it is that population in the 20 - 60 age group that actually delivers  care services.  If we had fewer children we'd save resources spent on maternity pay, education, child health, social services and even policing, so there would be more for the elderly!

The problem, at least as perceived by economists and politicians, is that a reducing population means a shrinking economy. But the unasked question is "is that really a Bad Thing?" Well, now is the time to ask it, because it's shrinking anyway. 

[Petrochemicals]

you have many children to look after you.

But they don't, in western society. Almost nobody contributes to the economy before the age of 20. Your pension is paid by the working population, either from taxation or from profits on invested pension funds, and it is that population in the 20 - 60 age group that actually delivers  care services.  If we had fewer children we'd save resources spent on maternity pay, education, child health, social services and even policing, so there would be more for the elderly!

The problem, at least as perceived by economists and politicians, is that a reducing population means a shrinking economy. But the unasked question is "is that really a Bad Thing?" Well, now is the time to ask it, because it's shrinking anyway. 

Well that is a good idea, we could always have migration from the soviet block come over in our old age to wipe our arses ! But damn the 40 plus age group has just voted to leave europe............Mmmmm, lazy kids not contributing?....... Brexit all becomes clear !

[evan_au]

let's begin by moving school examinations to October and college entrance to January

We almost have that in Australia, today.
School year starts at end January, and universities at end-February.
School exams are October-November.

We have our summer school vacation mid-December to end-January (something that the UK is highly unlikely to adopt!)

[alancalverd (OP)]

Well that is a good idea, we could always have migration from the soviet block come over in our old age to wipe our arses ! But damn the 40 plus age group has just voted to leave europe............Mmmmm, lazy kids not contributing?....... Brexit all becomes clear !

My point remains, and it's nothing to do with laziness. In my younger days, nurse training began at 15 or 16, with practical ward experience. Nowadays you need a degree to wipe an arse, so the youngest are 21. Not sure that Brexit will change that, but it will permit the recruitment of staff whose first language is English. 

Whilst I'm on my high horse, it's worth pointing out that not only nursing is affected. In the 1950s the army trained radiographers in 6 weeks. The NHS increased it to 3 months in the 1960s. The equipment  is now far more reliable and easier to operate (army training included maintenance and repair!)  and the hours previously spent in chemical darkrooms have been eliminated by digital imaging, so the basic course is now a 3 year degree!

[Petrochemicals]

Well that is a good idea, we could always have migration from the soviet block come over in our old age to wipe our arses ! But damn the 40 plus age group has just voted to leave europe............Mmmmm, lazy kids not contributing?....... Brexit all becomes clear !

My point remains, and it's nothing to do with laziness. In my younger days, nurse training began at 15 or 16, with practical ward experience. Nowadays you need a degree to wipe an arse, so the youngest are 21. Not sure that Brexit will change that, but it will permit the recruitment of staff whose first language is English. 

Whilst I'm on my high horse, it's worth pointing out that not only nursing is affected. In the 1950s the army trained radiographers in 6 weeks. The NHS increased it to 3 months in the 1960s. The equipment  is now far more reliable and easier to operate (army training included maintenance and repair!)  and the hours previously spent in chemical darkrooms have been eliminated by digital imaging, so the basic course is now a 3 year degree!

I must say alan that is vastly incorrect. The vast majority arse wiping is done by people with no formal qualifications in carehomes across the land, for minimum wage and no contract, day in day out, who contributed nothing to the economy in there youth. The point was the old are punishing the young  by voting brexit, thus  making them wipe the arses.

In a more logical point, if kids do children contribute neither do old folks, may as well bolt gun them as soon as they reach a certain age,

[alancalverd (OP)]

Old folks have paid taxes and made investments, and have therefore earned their reward. 

I am unaware of your supposed army of 5-year-old arsewipers. This isn't Dickensian Britain, nor even Maoist China. However if they really do close the schools and scrap exams, perhaps we will return to those heady Victorian times, with kids up chimneys and down the re-opened coalmines, in which case I will retract my argument.

I share your concern about low pay and insecurity in the care sector. Problem is that with the accession of former soviet bloc countries to the EU, it was possible to recruit very cheap labor: the UK minimum wage is actually higher than the average family income in Romania and I was able to recruit qualified healthcare professionals for less than the cost of a UK student. Brexit should, in the medium term, result in a significant increase in the lowest wages as there is no right of free movement for anyone and the minimum salary for a prospective immigrant is way above minimum wage.

Since every child costs £12,500 per year and produces nothing, if we had fewer children we could pay care workers more.

[Bored chemist]

One immediate realisation has been that children are an economic burden, not an asset.

That depends on your timescale.

Nowadays you need a degree to wipe an arse,

You have equated nursing with arse wiping.
Is that due to ignorance or was it a lie?

Not sure that Brexit will change that, but it will permit the recruitment of staff whose first language is English. 

It may have escaped your notice, but most of the staff in the NHS already had English as their first language,

Brexit happened; you "won". you can stop telling those silly stories now.

In the 1950s the army trained radiographers in 6 weeks.

In the 1950s shoe salesmen were working as radiographers.*
Then we realised it was a monumentally f***ing stupid thing to do.

Also, in the 50s radiographers didn't have to learn about NMR or a host of other techniques.

It's as if you set out to post something to make yourself look stupid.


* yes, really
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoe-fitting_fluoroscope

[Bored chemist]

I am unaware of your supposed army of 5-year-old arsewipers.

That's because it's a strawman you made up.

[alancalverd (OP)]

Also, in the 50s radiographers didn't have to learn about NMR or a host of other techniques.

Every technique beyond radiography and fluoroscopy now requires a postgraduate qualification.

[jeffreyH]

What about the elephant in the room? In the US they are currently proposing to give everyone UBI. No one is saying how are they going to pay for that. They just have to do it or the pitch forks will be out.
Governments PRINT the money. If they wanted they could give everyone a million pounds TOMORROW! We invented a system that hides the slavery in something we call society. If we don't pay a mortgage or rent we get kicked out onto the streets and admonished.
Why are we still discussing this BS.

[jeffreyH]

Oh and BTW they only started taking this pandemic seriously when people like Tom Hanks or political figures started getting sick. Now they have to quarantine the peasants so that it doesn't affect polite society. That means that they have to shut them up in their houses with enough money to keep them happy until NORMALITY can be resumed.
Have a think about that for a few quiet minutes.

[alancalverd (OP)]

Why are we still discussing this BS.

Because freedom, democracy and greatness depend on everybody having a gun (except in NRA meetings) and nobody having free health care (except the President). Ask any Republican.

[Bored chemist]

Also, in the 50s radiographers didn't have to learn about NMR or a host of other techniques.

Every technique beyond radiography and fluoroscopy now requires a postgraduate qualification.

Yes, they do. Because they are quite complicated.

So?

[alancalverd (OP)]

Drifting way off topic, but my concern was that plane radiography and fluoroscopy are now a lot less complicated than 60 years ago - the equipment is vastly safer, more reliable, and does most of the thinking for you, and human anatomy really hasn't changed much in my lifetime. I was involved in a WHO project to develop a machine and handbook that allowed anyone vaguely numerate (not literate - one book for the whole world) to take 95% of all textbook x-rays with no training whatsoever - and it worked. But it now requires good science A levels and a 3 year degree to do the same thing.

Your profound insight and explanation will be very welcome.