[alancalverd]

Meanwhile, my chef son has realised that the world is changing. Pubs and restaurants all closing, but there's no shortage of food, just more demand for fresh stuff to eat at home, so he's left the hotel and is working for a supermarket instead, hoping to develop the home cooking market into something more lasting.

Any other signs of medium-term societal change?   

[Bored chemist]

Drifting way off topic, but my concern was that plane radiography and fluoroscopy are now a lot less complicated than 60 years ago

It's not clear what your topic was in the first place but... whatever.

Yes, new technology (where it is available- which excludes most of the world but... ) will make it easier to do the easy stuff.
It's probably more or less fair to say that my dental xrays are pretty much the same as dental xrays always were.
Yes, guess you could train a bright 10 year old to do that.

But, here's the thing you seem to deliberately miss.
Things have moved on.
People expect more than a simple shadowgram.

And because there's more to do, it takes more to learn how to do it.

Why is that such a difficult thing to understand?
Do you think the trainees spend their time reading the newspapers or something?
Or do you accept that, maybe, there's simply more to know about radiology than there was in 1950?

[alancalverd]

People expect more than a simple shadowgram.

But that's 95% of what they get.

It's probably more or less fair to say that my dental xrays are pretty much the same as dental xrays always were. Yes, guess you could train a bright 10 year old to do that.

In fact dental radiography is one of the more difficult aspects to get right - the picture book approach isn't entirely adequate. The old NHS Dental Estimates Board rejected over 50% of submitted plane x-rays as clinically useless and therefore not eligible for payment - and those were the good ones!

There is indeed a lot more to radiology than there used to be, which is why it's a further specialised branch of medicine, not radiography.

Yes, new technology (where it is available- which excludes most of the world but... ) will make it easier to do the easy stuff.

Interestingly, the WHO Basic X-ray Unit project ended up with some of the most sophisticated hardware because it is inherently more reliable and easier to maintain and use than the "simple" stuff.  The problem was laid out at an early conference by a radiologist who said there were more x-ray engineers in Bristol than in the whole of East Africa, so could we please make something that didn't need engineers.

[evan_au]

If we don't pay a mortgage or rent we get kicked out onto the streets and admonished.
Why are we still discussing this BS.

It looks like the old economy is going to be in the doldrums for maybe a year (depending on how seasonal this COVID-19 turns out to be).
- Some people's jobs will disappear, as will food on their table, and the roof over their heads
- Other people's jobs (mostly knowledge workers and critical infrastructure) will continue with working from home, and they will expect to be paid, and will expect to be able to buy food and pay rent
- But who pays the people with jobs, when many people without jobs aren't buying stuff or paying their bills?

It's almost like we need the old Jewish idea of the "Year of Jubilee", where all debts are forgiven. Then we reset the accounts, and next year, we start again with a blank slate...

But in the meantime, we all need to be fed, which will require us to continue doing our jobs as long as possible, even if its not clear how long we will be paid.
- To be self-disciplined, and stay isolated when we have any symptoms (even if we think it might just be hay-fever; you really can't tell the difference, at first!)
- To be helpful to our neighbours, friends and family when they are sick and can't go out to buy food
- Continue spending money (especially those with a job), even though it's not clear how much longer the money will last.
- Find innovative and helpful ways to help people without physical contact, like offering traditional services over the internet* 

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(biblical)#Origin_and_purpose

[evan_au]

Time for a new economics?

In Australia, the government has so far refused to let schools move to online education - they mandate that government funding is dependent on teachers having face-to-face lessons with students.
- This also provides a route for infection between students and families.
- The education department is stuck in "old school" technology, and will soon need to move into the 21st century.

In the meantime, I see that in the UK, schools will be closed from today (until further notice)...
- Are they planning to move to online education?

[Bored chemist]

In the meantime, I see that in the UK, schools will be closed from today (until further notice)...
- Are they planning to move to online education?

Define "planning".
It's going to sort of happen because there's a big demand from parents.

[alancalverd]

If it works, this could be revolutionary for the teaching profession. The Open University delivers an absolutely standard syllabus in dozens of subjects at very low cost, though admittedly to a strongly motivated audience. Why not extend this initially to the A level cohort, and guarantee that exam results are based on pupil ability and aptitude rather than the quality of teaching?

A general shrinkage of economic activity could lead to a reduction in workforce, with an increase in stay-home parenting which, coupled with universal high quality teaching at primary and secondary level, could produce the best-educated population since the 1960s.

I just came across a neat resilience trick yesterday. My daughter's company has rigidly segregated the workers into two shifts that never meet face to face: red shift is in the office on even dates, blue shift on odd dates; work from home or make site visits if you are not in the office. If anyone gets infected, only half the company is quarantined and the other half can split, and so forth. If the worst comes to the worst, they have at least delayed the inevitable whilst maintaining some central office facility to the bitter end.

[Petrochemicals]

What about the elephant in the room? In the US they are currently proposing to give everyone UBI. No one is saying how are they going to pay for that. They just have to do it or the pitch forks will be out.
Governments PRINT the money. If they wanted they could give everyone a million pounds TOMORROW! We invented a system that hides the slavery in something we call society. If we don't pay a mortgage or rent we get kicked out onto the streets and admonished.
Why are we still discussing this BS.

They are giving a weekly hand out in one country in scandinavia, so far no change, but sociologicaly it early days. I agree massively  with the social point of kicking people out homeless and the general tone of your point. I felt i should say that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/08/finland-free-cash-experiment-fails-to-boost-employment

Sorry jeff its not open to new entrants

[Bored chemist]

I just came across a neat resilience trick yesterday. My daughter's company has rigidly segregated the workers into two shifts that never meet face to face: red shift is in the office on even dates, blue shift on odd dates

Great, but you need damned good cleaners.

[evan_au]

My daughter's company has rigidly segregated the workers into two shifts that never meet face to face: red shift is in the office on even dates, blue shift on odd dates

Some banks have split their call center: half working from the regular call center, half from their emergency call center.
- This solves the cleaning problem mention mentioned by bored chemist
- Since virus can remain viable on surfaces for more than a day
- The problem will be further reduced if everyone uses the same workstation every day
- And workstations are spaced a meter or more apart
- But the risk will be far lower again if call center workers can work from home

The difficult thing with splitting the shifts across different sites is doing the initial allocation:
- I can imagine an instruction like "Everyone who is going to get the virus go to site A, and everyone who is not going to get the virus go to site B"

In reality, almost everyone will eventually get the virus (or maybe a vaccine, if it arrives in time).
- What we need is a test or criterion by which the recovered people can safely go back to work, without risk of infecting those who haven't been infected yet.
- That will mean a rule like "Don't return to work until X weeks after symptoms cease"
- or an antibody test?

[Petrochemicals]

My daughter's company has rigidly segregated the workers into two shifts that never meet face to face: red shift is in the office on even dates, blue shift on odd dates

Some banks have split their call center: half working from the regular call center, half from their emergency call center.
- This solves the cleaning problem mention mentioned by bored chemist
- Since virus can remain viable on surfaces for more than a day
- The problem will be further reduced if everyone uses the same workstation every day
- And workstations are spaced a meter or more apart
- But the risk will be far lower again if call center workers can work from home

The difficult thing with splitting the shifts across different sites is doing the initial allocation:
- I can imagine an instruction like "Everyone who is going to get the virus go to site A, and everyone who is not going to get the virus go to site B"

In reality, almost everyone will eventually get the virus (or maybe a vaccine, if it arrives in time).
- What we need is a test or criterion by which the recovered people can safely go back to work, without risk of infecting those who haven't been infected yet.
- That will mean a rule like "Don't return to work until X weeks after symptoms cease"
- or an antibody test?

They have adopted a similar practice at a doctors surgery in london, a hot floor, and a cold floor, one dealing with coughs cold etc and the one with arthritis etc. Doctors being doctors however accept that all of the doctors on the corona floor will get corona, being replaced with a new batch. If they split call centres, there will be 2 sites with corona ! They would have been better having a replacement crew, sending half the workforce home, that would slow the spread !

[evan_au]

decreasing economic activity on the entire ecosystem including human happiness, and possibly to radically review the underlying expansionist assumptions of politics and economics.

It's true that humans are not happy if they feel they are getting less of something, and only happy if they are getting more.
- That means "less than they used to get": That is problematic when a lot of the economy must shut down to prevent an even bigger economic and social disaster (high death rate, critical industries shut down because all the workers are sick at the same time)
- And "less than someone else": That is problematic when knowledge workers and people in critical industries will continue to get paid, while all the waiters, barmaids, event organisers and musicians have no work.

The large handouts announced by governments in a number of countries will give:
- the newly unemployed more than they would have received previously, so they are not too upset
- the employed will receive what they previously received, so they are not too upset
- This is effectively "printing more money" (even though cash is seen by some as an infection risk...)
- When you increase the money supply, while simultaneously reducing the amount of goods and services produced, this produces rampant inflation
- Let's say that production output is halved over winter, and the money supply is doubled. Effectively, we can expect 200% inflation over the year.
- What the government has done is to effectively:
       + reduce the wages of those in work (whose wages probably won't keep up with inflation),
       + while reducing the wages of those out of work
       + without letting the income of the unemployed fall to zero, which would produce starvation, desperation, theft and riots: ie the total breakdown of law & order
      + Shuffle the income between the "haves" and "have nots" in such a way that both groups think they haven't lost any money
      + Even though the real availability of goods and services is reduced
- The list of goods and services that remain available are: food/water, electricity/fuel, medical/hospital and TV/Internet.
-  Everything else is considered "non-essential", so you have to live off what you already have (or which others will share with you)
- As happened in China, new and innovative ways of providing services over the internet will appear, which will consume less resources than digging up stuff to sell.
- The level of air pollution would be improved in cities.

So, I expect that some new economics will appear for a while
- while retaining the basic human mantra of "I want more; I want more than everyone else; and I am really annoyed if I get less of anything.".
- Some sociologists have done experiments, and found that people are quite irrational about this
- People are twice as angry about losing something
- As they were happy about getting that same thing in the first place!

The Old Book had a word for this: to "covet" is human, but it doesn't necessarily bring out the best in us...

[Blimey]

I suggested we convert to a single world currency based on toilet paper. I don't think anyone took it on though.

[alancalverd]

Many a true word is spoken in jest. A currency based on essentials rather than speculation about the future of luxuries, might just evolve. And our concept of essential is changing. A local cleaner has been offered double her usual hourly rate  and has invested in hazmat kit. Delivery drivers are still working crazy shifts but can see that the demand for their services is beginning to exceed supply, with the usual inevitable consequence.

I've written to my MP suggesting that the simplest form of financial help for the selfemployed would be to refund a proportion of last year's income tax. This will reward those who honestly declared their profits, and not those with offshore holding companies and other avoidance wheezes.

The real elephant in the UK economy is the cost of housing, which accounts for around 30%  of GNP. If there is any mechanism by which COVID19 can reduce house prices, this country could become a great place to live and work. 

[Bored chemist]

If there is any mechanism by which COVID19 can reduce house prices, t

Think about it...

[RD]

If there is any mechanism by which COVID19 can reduce house prices, t

Think about it...

If there is "increased demand for" the "death management system" ...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-bill-what-it-will-do/what-the-coronavirus-bill-will-do
Funerals will become more expensive & house prices will drop.

[alancalverd]

Funerals should get cheaper. No preparation of the corpse, no visit to the funeral parlor, no cars full of sniffling relatives, no crowded service, no wake in the pub. Just the registrar and the crematorium operators (no gravediggers!).   

[evan_au]

I suggested we convert to a single world currency based on toilet paper.

My daughter was talking to Yanice, recently turned 4 years old; Yanice was describing what it is like to be sick: Germs are yucky. And all the people are eating toilet paper. They are being so silly!

e pluribus unum:Out of many, one

I heard of a US actor who picked up a respiratory virus.

He went to get tested for COVID-19, only to be hit with a bill for almost $US10,000 for the test kit.
- That actor probably has health insurance, so he would get most of it back. If not, he can probably afford it.
- But the bulk of the US population does not have health insurance (or it's tied to their workplace, which might soon get shut down).
- And the bulk of the US population can't afford hospital care
- So the bulk of the US population can't afford to be tested for COVID-19, even if they met the criteria
- That will lead to a tsunami of undetected community spread

In the home of free enterprise, there seems to be no understanding that when it comes to a pandemic, out of the neglect of the many comes a massive blight on the whole country.

It will be interesting to compare the health outcomes in the USA ("every man for himself") to Canada (which has a public health system).
- For a pandemic virus, it is every man to every other man (and woman & child...)

Time for a new economics?

The major change we need in our economy is to properly value "externalities":
- Externalities in economics are the things that we get for "free", but really cost someone something, just not the person who benefits.

In this case,the costs of selling endangered species (habitat destruction) is not considered by those profiteering from the sale
- They may even see impending extinction as a benefit: if there are fewer pangolins (or rhinos) in the wild, there won't be as many on sale in the the markets, and you can sell them for an inflated price!
- Until they go totally extinct - and people discover that pangolin scales and rhino horns are made of the same stuff as human hair and fingernail clippings (keratin).

But the real cost of these illegal wildlife markets will be borne by everyone - world economic output reduced by perhaps 25% over the winter months, premature deaths of many grandparents.

Now, if only we could cost in externalities in a more general way...
- We could start with polluting industries (as was done with lead in petrol)
- And apply it to a carbon tax (the fossil fuel industry currently don't get charged for this externality; and they have hired the merchants of doubt away from the tobacco industry to delay this impact as long as possible)

[alancalverd]

Just the registrar and the crematorium operators (no gravediggers!).   

And two hours later, our revered government has clamped down on all travel and public gatherings except funerals - possibly the only group activity that cannot have any value whatever.   

[evan_au]

clamped down on all travel and public gatherings except funerals

Since most of the deaths will be amongst the elderly, most of their friends, and many of their close family will also be elderly.
- Just the sort of people you don't want in a crowd around a body that was recently producing copious quantities of virus...
- Aged care homes are terrified of virus getting into their premises - they can't afford to let someone go out and come back inside...

Seems to be an argument for live-streaming funerals...
- Getting help with the technology will be important for many elderly people!