[neilep (OP)]

It has been mentioned that there could be a resurgence of COVID-19 numbers in the winter !!  Why ? What does 'winter' have to do with an increase of COVID-19 numbers ?

[set fair]

No need to shout.

In winter windows are closed and there are more people indoors. There are more seasonal colds about. Most people will have insufficient vitamin D levels.

[alancalverd]

Cyclic stupidity - the essence of Tom & Jerry cartoons: "hey, the puddytat has gone - time to play" but we al know the puddytat is hiding round the corner with a club/gun/anvil/stick of dynamite....

A little governmental encouragement to get children back to school, then make merry and support retail/hospitality/entertainment businesses as the nights get darker, and another batch of human sacrifices will turn up in the hospital waiting room. It's economics, not biochemistry.

[Bored chemist]

Cyclic stupidity - the essence of Tom & Jerry cartoons: "hey, the puddytat has gone - time to play" but we al know the puddytat is hiding round the corner with a club/gun/anvil/stick of dynamite....

A little governmental encouragement to get children back to school, then make merry and support retail/hospitality/entertainment businesses as the nights get darker, and another batch of human sacrifices will turn up in the hospital waiting room. It's economics, not biochemistry.

And what did Winter have to do with it for every cold and flu season between 1920 and 2019 when politics wasn't really paying attention?

Anyway, viruses generally survive better of it's cool, damp and dark- which sounds like Winter to me.

[alancalverd]

Crowded pubs when the gardens closed, crowded shops as people paid their seasonal religious dues to the Retail Gods, snotty kids and sweaty parents crammed into school and church halls for nativity plays, crowded football terraces replacing spacious cricket grounds, office windows closed, distant family visits to overheated and unventilated granny houses, and a fresh intake of schoolchildren with no acquired immunity to each other's diseases.  Perfect conditions for direct transmission of live virus.

However since the country pretty well shuts down for 2 weeks over Christmas, it would behove  HM Government to do something sensible for a change, and impose a statutory, properly policed quarantine. If they gave everyone a few months' notice (like now) and clear instructions (with statutory exemptions for those who operate the Prime Minister, of course) , It Would All Be Over if not by Christmas, at least by mid January, with minimal inconvenience  to anyone and hardly any damage to the Holy Economy.

[neilep (OP)]

No need to shout.

In winter windows are closed and there are more people indoors. There are more seasonal colds about. Most people will have insufficient vitamin D levels.

shhhssshhhhh !!.. i will gently tip toe through the tulips from now on. *whispers* thank you for your answer !!

[neilep (OP)]

Cyclic stupidity - the essence of Tom & Jerry cartoons: "hey, the puddytat has gone - time to play" but we al know the puddytat is hiding round the corner with a club/gun/anvil/stick of dynamite....

A little governmental encouragement to get children back to school, then make merry and support retail/hospitality/entertainment businesses as the nights get darker, and another batch of human sacrifices will turn up in the hospital waiting room. It's economics, not biochemistry.

Thanks Al, so it's a behavioural issue rather than a time of year thing except that the time of year dictates the behaviour.

[neilep (OP)]

Cyclic stupidity - the essence of Tom & Jerry cartoons: "hey, the puddytat has gone - time to play" but we al know the puddytat is hiding round the corner with a club/gun/anvil/stick of dynamite....

A little governmental encouragement to get children back to school, then make merry and support retail/hospitality/entertainment businesses as the nights get darker, and another batch of human sacrifices will turn up in the hospital waiting room. It's economics, not biochemistry.

And what did Winter have to do with it for every cold and flu season between 1920 and 2019 when politics wasn't really paying attention?

Anyway, viruses generally survive better of it's cool, damp and dark- which sounds like Winter to me.

ahh thanks BC, so there def could be a climate relation too ? thanks.

[alancalverd]

Just attended an American Society of Photobiology  webinar on germicides. It turns out that the highest COVID infection rates in the USA are in the hottest states (eg Arizona, where population density is fairly low, compared with Massachusetts with a higher pop dens but lower summer temperature ), almost certainly due to recirculating airconditioning, and the ratio of airborne to surface infectivity seems to be around 20:1 for coronaviruses in general.

So hot states and countries can expect to see a summer peak, exactly the opposite of UK expectation, and a good reason not to take your summer hols  in Spain!

[Bored chemist]

Just attended an American Society of Photobiology  webinar on germicides. It turns out that the highest COVID infection rates in the USA are in the hottest states (eg Arizona, where population density is fairly low, compared with Massachusetts with a higher pop dens but lower summer temperature ), almost certainly due to recirculating airconditioning, and the ratio of airborne to surface infectivity seems to be around 20:1 for coronaviruses in general.

So hot states and countries can expect to see a summer peak, exactly the opposite of UK expectation, and a good reason not to take your summer hols  in Spain!

Did they look at correlation with politics?

[Petrochemicals]

Winter air has a far higher humidity index meaning all the virus cells and aerosols evapourative rates are far lower, ie cell stays nice and jucy lucy live rather than being sahara dry and dead.

[Bored chemist]

Winter air has a far higher humidity index meaning all the virus cells and aerosols evapourative rates are far lower, ie cell stays nice and jucy lucy live rather than being sahara dry and dead.

I have a feeling that someone already said that.

[alancalverd]

Just attended an American Society of Photobiology  webinar on germicides. It turns out that the highest COVID infection rates in the USA are in the hottest states (eg Arizona, where population density is fairly low, compared with Massachusetts with a higher pop dens but lower summer temperature ), almost certainly due to recirculating airconditioning, and the ratio of airborne to surface infectivity seems to be around 20:1 for coronaviruses in general.

So hot states and countries can expect to see a summer peak, exactly the opposite of UK expectation, and a good reason not to take your summer hols  in Spain!

Did they look at correlation with politics?

No obvious correlation if you spread the net a bit wider.  This week's hotspot, Catalonia, has always been well to the left of even the most radical American states.

Even within the USA it's interesting that Arizona, overall politically neutral (seems to be the retirement destination of choice for Massachusetts academics) has more cases per capita, and more aircon chill days, than Texas and Florida, whilst neighboring Colorado, equally neutral but colder, doesn't.

[Bored chemist]

Even within the USA it's interesting that Arizona, overall politically neutral (seems to be the retirement destination of choice for Massachusetts academics) has more cases per capita, and more aircon chill days, than Texas and Florida, whilst neighboring Colorado, equally neutral but colder, doesn't.

Interesting. I don't know US geography at all.
Is Colorado also full of pensioners?

[alancalverd]

Almost everyone I know is a pensioner, including those who live in Arizona and Colorado. It's a good enough sample for a priest, politician, philosopher, journalist or economist, including those who are Guided by the Science.

But here's an interesting point. My Mormon colleagues and clients in Utah have always fulfilled their commitment to maintain a month's food supply, so maybe they were preparing all along to survive a pandemic quarantine whilst their countrymen infect and shoot each other.