[alancalverd]

If the UK had a variety of energy sources then it's unlikely that they would all fail at the same time.

The winged pig flies again! 

Yes, all we need is a whole load more of really big mountains, a tidal generator that works, less cloud, more wind, and constant rain.

Right now, we have about 7 GW of solar, 2 GW of wind, and 55 GW of undesirable nuclear and gas producing electricity. There is no significant storage capacity and the total fuel consumption is about  3 times the electricity load.

Your suggestions, backed with cash, are welcome.

[alancalverd]

I learn something every day! Relativity is a straw man because nobody said otherwise. 

[wolfekeeper]

Electric cars are large grid batteries on wheels. They're pretty much all the grid storage the UK needs; so no, they're the opposite of green wash.

[alancalverd]

Problem is that most people will want to charge them when there is no solar power available. This is the tenth successive day with no significant wind (and surface wind generally decreases at night too!). Nuclear power does not respond economically  to varying demand. So if I had an electric car, even if it had been made by magic instead of by burning fossil fuel, I'd need to call on the gas-powered grid to recharge it. Except that there isn't enough actual or planned generating capacity of any sort to keep 35,000,000 cars on the road, even if you don't worry about the CO2 emission from the gas stations and the fact that most of it comes from an unreliable country. It's bad enough having the price and availability of road fuel determined by Salman al Saud - would you prefer Vladimir Putin?

To recap on the old story: A traveller in Dublin asked a man the quickest way to Cork. He said "If I wanted to go to Cork, sir, I wouldn't start from Dublin."  For the foreseeable future of road transport, we are in Dublin.

https://gridwatch.org.uk/

[Bored chemist]

Problem is that most people will want to charge them when there is no solar power available.

I'd want to charge mine while it's in the car park at work, plugged in via their meter.

Incidentally, the pandemic has done a fine job of demonstrating that most of us don't need to commute, which makes a big hole in the energy demand.

[alancalverd]

Far from it, at least as far as electricity is concerned. Have a look at Gridwatch. There has been a small decrease in industrial use of electricity but that will pick up when "non essential" businesses re-open.

There was a brief dip in road fuel prices a year ago when demand slumped but the peak electricity demand has remained around 40 GW, against a "secure" limit of 45 GW, above which the system requires sun and wind to meet demand.

There is an amusing and very sharp-edged 3.45pm dip in electricity use which picks up again an hour later. I'm struggling to find an explanation: the famous "coronation teatime" surge was due to people switching on kettles and flushing toilets, so it isn't a tea-break phenomenon. Maybe folk switching off their home computers and cookers, and setting out on the school run? 

I think the upside of non-commuting is here to stay, but travelling over the last few weeks has been a pleasure - except at school-run time!

You make a good point about work car parks. In addition to 35,000,000 kerbside charging points we will need around 20,000,000 in works car parks,so people can get home. 

[Bored chemist]

Have a look at Gridwatch.

Yeah... 'cos that's going to tell me all about car use.

or, I could look at the reduction in energy use due to people not commuting during lockdown.
https://www.gocompare.com/motoring/reports-statistics/fuel-savings/

https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-lockdowns-depress-fuel-demand-worldwide

[alancalverd]

Gridwatch won't tell you about car use, but it will tell you what is available for electric cars. Sadly, not a lot.

Untangling the gocompare figures it seems that lockdown may have reduced annual car fuel consumption by about 10%. Helpful, but still a long way from Cork! The surprising figure is

On average, Brits spend 58 minutes a day commuting for work by car, covering 3.4 miles each way.

Slightly quicker than walking, about right for a forced march or a jog, and it seems that a bike would be 2-3 times faster than a car!.

[Bored chemist]

The surprising figure is

You might be surprised; I'm not.

So, here's another question for you, do you think it would be easier to get the developing world to have fewer children, or to persuade Westerners to get on bikes?

Reducing energy use is a whole lot better than trying to find easy sources for it.

[wolfekeeper]

Problem is that most people will want to charge them when there is no solar power available.

Right. But what they do want to do is charge them when the electricity is CHEAP. That's when there's an excess of electricity, when there's excess solar or wind. And further, they're often willing to sell some electrical power when electricity is EXPENSIVE (such as the early evening when solar is dropping off.)

This is the tenth successive day with no significant wind (and surface wind generally decreases at night too!).

Yes, we're getting into summer. Solar is doing really well. This is not a coincidence.

Nuclear power does not respond economically  to varying demand. So if I had an electric car, even if it had been made by magic instead of by burning fossil fuel, I'd need to call on the gas-powered grid to recharge it.

Not gas-powered, just the grid.

Except that there isn't enough actual or planned generating capacity of any sort to keep 35,000,000 cars on the road,

It's not difficult, you just build 2.5kW (~12 square metres) of solar panel per car. Most people's roofs can handle that easily. During the winter it will underperform, but wind power overperforms. So: 🤷‍♂️

even if you don't worry about the CO2 emission from the gas stations and the fact that most of it comes from an unreliable country. It's bad enough having the price and availability of road fuel determined by Salman al Saud - would you prefer Vladimir Putin?

You're looking at this the wrong way. Natural gas usage is going down from here on out, not up.

[hamdani yusuf]

What is Tesla's autobidder—and how does it use AI to make millions?

According to an Eletrek article, Tesla's Autobidder software, using their AI-based Opticaster, is now managing 1.2GWh of electricity globally. That's an amazing figure! But what is Autobidder? how does Autobidder work? How does it use artificial intelligence/machine learning? What is Opticaster and how does it relate to Autobidder? How does it make electric companies money? How does it make Tesla a great deal of money? Can we humble consumers get in on this and make money using our own Tesla powerwalls?

Here is what batteries can do to the grid.

[hamdani yusuf]

The 2021 Tesla Battery Update Is Here

[alancalverd]

Reducing energy use is a whole lot better than trying to find easy sources for it.

Agreed. Let's begin with electricity. We can ignore electric cars for the moment as there aren't many. What in your life and environment would you like to switch off, and persuade aspiring consumers that they don't want? 

[alancalverd]

But what they do want to do is charge them when the electricity is CHEAP. That's when there's an excess of electricity, when there's excess solar or wind.

That rather compromises the utility of the vehicle.

Yes, we're getting into summer. Solar is doing really well. This is not a coincidence.

current installed capacity is about 10 GW, yielding an annual average of  about 1 GW.

Not gas-powered, just the grid.

Right now, at maximum solar intensity, gas is providing 52% of the grid power. At night, that increases to around 70%, with nuclear at 15 - 20%. Assuming no new nuclear power, the grid will have to be principally gas-powered for the foreseeable future if we are to have electric cars as standard.

It's not difficult, you just build 2.5kW (~12 square metres) of solar panel per car. Most people's roofs can handle that easily.

Thus adding £6000 to the cost of your car, assuming you live in a house with a south-facing roof. If you live in a block of flats, you have a problem.  A 2.5 kW peak solar panel in the UK will deliver an average of 250W over the year - just enough to keep the lights on.

You're looking at this the wrong way. Natural gas usage is going down from here on out, not up.

Delighted to hear it. What reliable source are you installing to replace it?

[wolfekeeper]

You're still not getting it. If the wind drops entirely for a couple of weeks a year-all we have to do is turn on the CCGT plant we already have to make up the shortfall. This is called a 'backup generator' set. And we already have it, and it's going to be mostly paid off.

Two weeks a year is 4% probably more but it's not a big thing and potentially we could make methane from biomass.

Solar installations are growing at about 20-40% per annum, compound, and are still plummeting in price. Installing it on roofs works, but installing it on brown field sites works even better. Most people understand exponentials better having experience the coronavirus growth patterns. Solar is growing exponentially too. Last time I drew the graph, yearly global solar production was on track to equal the entire world generation by about 2030 give or take 5 years or so. Adding electric cars helps with that, because they can suck down excess power and release it in the evenings obviating the 'duck curve' and keep the power going even when there's no wind or solar without having to start up the CCGTs.

[alancalverd]

All that would be true if we had enough spare generating capacity and sufficient grid infrastructure to distribute it. Cars currently consume as much power as the entire present capacity  - about 45 GW.

So "all we have to do" is

double  the UK electricity generating capacity
double the grid capacity
install 50,000,000 new charging points
build 30,000,000 new cars and
scrap 30,000,000 roadworthy old cars 

without burning any more gas.

[Bored chemist]

Cars currently consume as much power as the entire present capacity  - about 45 GW.

When you say "currently" do you mean they used to use roughly twice as much as the grid before the pandemic roughly halved consumption, or do you mean they actually no use about half of the grid capacity?

scrap 30,000,000 roadworthy old cars 

What else would we do with them in the end?

[wolfekeeper]

All that would be true if we had enough spare generating capacity and sufficient grid infrastructure to distribute it. Cars currently consume as much power as the entire present capacity  - about 45 GW.

Nope. If we had 35 million electric cars, that would be an average power of 7 GW:

~5 kWh/car/day times 35 million cars = 175 GWh/day. Averaged over a 24 hour period, ~7GW

Meanwhile average power demand is about 30GW. Nothing like double.

I mean, yes, sure, if your point is how disastrously inefficient and horrifically polluting current fossil cars are, you've certainly proved your point!

[alancalverd]

If we had 35 million electric cars, that would be an average power of 7 GW:

 I'm considering replacing the vehicles we have, and the use we make of them, like for like. 50 miles per gallon at 50 miles per hour is about 60 kW input. Average car use is, say, 1 hour/day so power consumption is 60,000/24 x 35,000,000= 87.5 GW. Now the internal combustion engine is about 45% efficient at converting fuel to useful energy,  and an electric motor say 90%, so we need ~ 44GW of electricity, just as I said earlier.

As regards pollution, until we find a magic electricity tree, we are going to have to meet the huge extra demand by burning gas. Thermal efficiency of a  gas power station is pretty much the same as an i.c. engine, with maybe 5% transmission loss and 5% loss at the charger, so you actually burn more fossil fuel to run an electric car.

 

[wolfekeeper]

Except that cars don't usually go 50 miles an hour for an hour a day. They average about 30 miles per day at much lower average speeds. Also electric cars have superior aerodynamics. So you're WAY overestimating the real world power that cars use.