[hamdani yusuf]

Ah, projections.

In the words of Sam Goldwyn, prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

But not impossible. Some futurists have made some pretty much accurate predictions in the past. 

Banning the sale of IC vehicles  will undoubtedly increase the sale of EVs in those countries where it is politically feasible and desirable, regardless of whether it makes sense.  The potential market for mains sockets in India is huge, though there doesn't seem to be any wire behind most of the walls.

Price drop due to improvement of battery manufacturing would be enough to motivate people to shift to BEVs. Their range and performance have already surpassed ICE.
India has ambitious target for renewable energy. The sockets don't have to be connected to wires behind walls. They can use battery packages connected to solar roofs. With adequate capacity, you can still charge your car during the night.

[alancalverd]

I hope we don't have to extract fuel from the ground anymore, which would end up in the atmosphere.

Only until it is absorbed by plants. after all, it originated in the atmosphere umpteen zillion years ago!

[Bored chemist]

The economics of road fuel are still in favor of getting it out of the ground.

As long as you don't have to pay the full costs.

[wolfekeeper]

You have 9 years from now to install 50,000,000 kerbside charging stations

Roughly two per car...
Presumably that's chosen to make it look more difficult.

No. The adverts all promote home charging, so that's 30,000,000 for a start. Not sure where Wolfekeeper lives, but very few residences in London or other major cities have private driveways, and nearly all seem to have cars parked outside.

There's these AMAZING INVENTIONS that ALREADY have ELECTRICAL POWER ON THE STREETS called 'LAMP POSTS':

https://char.gy/

All you do is plug your car in once every week or two overnight, and walk away. Come back: FULLY CHARGED.

They're not expensive. They're a socket and a computer controlled switch.

[alancalverd]

The economics of road fuel are still in favor of getting it out of the ground.

As long as you don't have to pay the full costs.

AFAIK it isn't subsidised. In fact, it is heavily taxed. And don't bleat on about the environmental cost because so far nobody has explained how the UK is going to generate enough electricity to run 30,000,000 cars without burning fossil fuel. Especially as we are now told that gas boilers will be banned from 2025 and everyone will be using magic heat pumps driven by fairy electricity. Though in fairness, "They" are also advocating hydrogen gas boilers, because they haven't read the threads in this forum where you have explained that it is too dangerous and leaks out of steel pipes.

[alancalverd]

India has ambitious target for renewable energy. The sockets don't have to be connected to wires behind walls. They can use battery packages connected to solar roofs. With adequate capacity, you can still charge your car during the night.

So you need two batteries and a solar panel to power one car.  Scrap the  entirely useable tuk-tuk and buy a brand new electric car (there aren't any old ones) plus a second battery and a solar panel (never mind the fossil fuel expended to build these things - they are modern and desirable), and save the planet. All we need to do is end rural poverty, which has been going on for far too log anyway and is really, really unfashionable.

[wolfekeeper]

You don't need a second battery, the cars are statistically grid batteries. They're not plugged in all the time, but they're plugged in enough of the time that doesn't matter. You just need solar panels with inverters, cars and grids.

[Bored chemist]

AFAIK it isn't subsidised.

It is subsidised- if you forgive the cliche- by the people getting flooded in Bangladesh who are not charging you for the cost of rebuilding their homes.

Surely you know this sort of thing.

[Bored chemist]

They" are also advocating hydrogen gas boilers, because they haven't read the threads in this forum where you have explained that it is too dangerous and leaks out of steel pipes.

Actually, they do know about
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_embrittlement

But what concerns them more is diffusion through plastic.
And then there's the work being done to see how it permeates through a house if your pilot light fails or whatever.

[hamdani yusuf]

I hope we don't have to extract fuel from the ground anymore, which would end up in the atmosphere.

Only until it is absorbed by plants. after all, it originated in the atmosphere umpteen zillion years ago!

Plants can't absorb all exhaust gases. Some of them will end up in the ocean, some others will end up in our lungs.

[alancalverd]

You don't need a second battery, the cars are statistically grid batteries. They're not plugged in all the time, but they're plugged in enough of the time that doesn't matter. You just need solar panels with inverters, cars and grids.

So I install my solar panel at home to charge the car. Problem is that the sun doesn't shine at night, and I'm supposed to be at work during the day, so I can't use my car to go to work. 

[wolfekeeper]

So plug it in when you get to work. This isn't rocket science, it's a 13 amp power extension, only about one electric car in ten needs to plug in on any given day. Virtually all car parks already have lighting and power anyway already.

[alancalverd]

This is beginning to make sense. Cover the car park with solar panels. Assume about 10 sq m per car, this will give you around 1 MWh per year, 2.7 kWh per day in the UK. That will almost cover a 5 mile journey each way at 300 Wh per mile - current good performance for a small Tesla.

Except that you will be lucky to get 1 kWh during the working day in winter, when the car will actually be consuming rather more power than average.

[wolfekeeper]

I mean, you can put solar panels on car parks. But you don't have to. Anywhere that connects to the grid is fine. During the winter there's more wind power and less solar power. So use that instead.🤷‍♂️

Don't forget, cars that are plugged in long term in car parks and lamp posts aren't rapid charging. A million cars charging at 3kW is only 3 GW. The grid can easily take that.

[alancalverd]

 

A million cars charging at 3kW is only 3 GW. The grid can easily take that.

But the plan is to replace 30,000,000  cars and, as of this week, 20,000,000 gas boilers, with fairydust.

Now here I am with money to invest in lamp post charging sockets. Assuming that all lamp posts are convertible, I will need to spend about £400 for a robust waterproof 13A socket, a 15A isolating contactor, a self-resetting overload trip, an earth leakage current trip, a suitable card reader and an energy meter, then add a telephone line (BT won't install any cables on the same pillar as a mains cable, but let's ignore the wiring regulations for a moment) and pay line rental, wayleaves, and installation labour costs. Say £1000 per socket if I'm installing a thousand or more. The meter must be changed or calibrated every 10 years (bloody regulations!)

As you say, only 1 car in 10 needs recharging, so I have to spend £10,000 in order to supply 3 kW, assuming that the lamp supply (normally 100W or less) can be uprated. 

How long will it take for me to get my money back?  If I borrow £1,000,000  at 5%, will I ever make a profit? 

[Bored chemist]

but the plan is to replace 30,000,000  cars

So, that's 90 GW.
It's currently cold + wet in much of the UK
 Renewables are delivering about 14 GW
"Others" are giving about 6.5 GW
So we need to roughly quadruple the non-fossil fuel power
Wind power is growing about 30 or 40% per year
So that's about 5 or 6 years.

Looks like a reasonable plan to me.
It's not trivial, but it's not impossible.

20,000,000 gas boilers, with fairydust.

You didn't spell hydrogen correctly.


Essentially Alan's view seems to be that a bike with only a front wheel will not work, and a bike with only a back wheel will not work.
So there is no point making back wheels or front wheels;  bikes are impossible.

[alancalverd]

My view is that there is no likelihood of the UK producing and distributing enough secure electricity from renewable sources to replace all the cars and domestic gas boilers.

You have previously discounted hydrogen, but even accepting your miraculous conversion, we still need the capital plant and capturable wind to make and distribute the gas.

There is little point in promoting back wheels and prohibiting the sale of roller skates if nobody makes front wheels, frames, saddles and drive chains.

[Bored chemist]

My view is that there is no likelihood of the UK producing and distributing enough secure electricity from renewable sources to replace all the cars and domestic gas boilers.

I'm fairly sure we don't produce enough fossil fuel to do it either.
We have not got close  since the North Seal oil more or less ran out.

So we will be importing energy as usual.
If we are prepared to pay a premium then we can import renewables.


As for

nobody makes front wheels, frames, saddles and drive chains.

Production is already ramping up.

[wolfekeeper]

but the plan is to replace 30,000,000  cars

So, that's 90 GW.

No f'n it isn't!

Cars drive ~30 miles a day on average. An electric car uses about 150-300 kWh/mile. Call it 250. So that's under 10 kWh per day. There's 24 hours in a day, so that's an average of just over 300 watts per car. 30 million cars, average of 9 GW. We could do that TODAY without redoing our grid. Add some solar panels, and we're there. Don't forget these cars are going to arrive slowly over a decade or more-plenty of time to add renewable capacity.

[Bored chemist]

I did the arithmetic here
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=81292.msg637211;topicseen#msg637211

 " the average power is about 58 GW"
That's the average power delivered by diesel and petrol in the UK- almost all of it is used in vehicles.

Even allowing for the poor efficiency of ICE, dropping power to 9GW would require a sacrifice in something- probability spurious acceleration and the ability to massively exceed the speed limit.

But it does indicate that 90GW for much more efficient electric vehicles is a silly number.

I apologise for thinking that Alan might have got it right. I should know better.