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Numerical perspective

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Offline casualty (OP)

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Numerical perspective
« on: 13/07/2021 05:07:03 »
According to a Johns Hopkins University professor of "surgery and health policy & management", the medical industry kills 250 thousand Americans / year (685 / day). Source: "Medical Errors Are No. 3 Cause Of U.S Deaths, Researchers Say", NPR article, 2016-May-03. That figure is lower that Covid-19 at its worst, but by no more than an order of magnitude.

Politicians aren't alarmed by those numbers. They don't call it emergency. They don't spend trillions to control it.

The media isn't alarmed by those numbers. There's no round the clock coverage of the 685 killed by the medical industry daily.

Society is acting inconsistently, to the medical industry's advantage.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #1 on: 13/07/2021 09:28:43 »
"The medical industry" doesn't attack random civilians in the street for no reason. COVID does.

Medical mistakes only occur when (a) the patient is sick and (b) you are trying to heal him. So you need to normalise your fatal error rate by the number of patients undergoing active interventional treatment on any day (about 5,000,000 in the USA) and add some correction factor for those on longterm medication (probably another 20,000,000) and those who would have died from other causes even if you hadn't made a mistake (about 12,000). At its peak, and despite the best available interventions, COVID was killing 3 - 5,000 per day, most of whom would not have died from anything else on that day had they not been infected.

In the absence of preventive measures and treatment, COVID will kill around 10 - 20% of the population and severely disable about the same number. 

So numerically the US response was entirely sensible if a bit late. Much like 1917 and 1941.
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Offline hamdani yusuf

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #2 on: 13/07/2021 09:31:17 »
A get this from Google search.
Quote
Top 10 Causes of Death in America
These are the conditions and catalysts that killed the most Americans in 2020.

By Gary Emerling
|
April 20, 2021, at 10:12 a.m.
U.S. News & World Report
Top 10 Causes of Death in America

More
Leading Causes of Death in the U.S.

Heart Disease
Cancer
COVID-19
Accidents/Unintentional Injuries
Cerebrovascular Diseases
Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases
Alzheimer's Disease
Diabetes
Influenza and Pneumonia
Kidney Disease
https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/slideshows/top-10-causes-of-death-in-america?slide=12

Fortunately the first two cases are not highly infectious.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #3 on: 13/07/2021 09:40:32 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 05:07:03
That figure is lower .... but by no more than an order of magnitude.

We await the next statistical analysis, along the lines of: "Amateur pilots only have about 8 times more crashes per mile than professionals, so why bother with advanced training? It doesn't lower the incident rate by more than an order of magnitude."
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Offline hamdani yusuf

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #4 on: 13/07/2021 09:47:42 »
Maybe you can learn something from China, how to handle this case.



* US.PNG (40.89 kB, 683x695 - viewed 3665 times.)

* china.PNG (31.68 kB, 687x682 - viewed 3617 times.)
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Offline casualty (OP)

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #5 on: 13/07/2021 18:27:39 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 13/07/2021 09:31:17
A get this from Google search.
Quote
Top 10 Causes of Death in America....
When you follow the cites from the link you post, Google got that list from  U.S. News & World Report, who got it from JAMA, and JAMA is citing National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) there.

But in the original post, the whole post, this whole thread, I cite JHU, complaining about how NVSS is rigged to omit counting people killed by the medical industry. I cited an NPR article. If you look at the NPR article, it's about those NVSS stats you cite -- the NPR article is all about how those stats you post are misleading. JHU professor asked the CDC to stop being so deceitful, but the CDC has refused. It's all in the NPR article.
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Offline casualty (OP)

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #6 on: 13/07/2021 18:36:10 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 13/07/2021 09:28:43
Medical mistakes only occur when (a) the patient is sick and (b) you are trying to heal him.
(c) you exclude elective treatments and experimental vaccines?
(d) the medical industry manufacturing the Oxycontin-addiction epidemic for profit was not really the medical industry trying to "heal" patients; it was the industry doing something else
(e) You imply that, for example, experimental vaccines not approved by the FDA are safe, but not even the FDA is willing to call Covid vaccine safe, because it's experimental. People who take it are guinea pigs in human experimentation, not taking a drug deemed "safe" by FDA.
« Last Edit: 13/07/2021 19:00:55 by casualty »
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #7 on: 13/07/2021 18:43:49 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 05:07:03
According to a Johns Hopkins University professor of "surgery and health policy & management",
If you gave us a name, rather than an appeal to authority, we might be able look at the report and make up our own minds.

Anyway, here's the original article.
https://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i2139.full
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #8 on: 13/07/2021 18:48:27 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 18:36:10
People who take it are guinea pigs in human experimentation, not taking a drug deemed "safe" by FDA.
This idea of being "safe" is a bit silly.
If you are alive, you can die.
So the only way to be safe is to already be dead.

Once you realise that "safe" is a relative, rather than abstract  idea, it's clear that all the vaccine has to be is "probabaly less dangerous than not having it- and risking getting the virus".

On that score , it's safe.

It is interesting that things like human- or system- error aren't recorded on death certificates, but it's not because of some mystical or malign influence.

It's simple. Doctors wrote medical stuff (rather than fault tree analysis stuff) on death certificates because they were not trained to do risk analysis.
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Offline casualty (OP)

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #9 on: 13/07/2021 19:35:18 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 13/07/2021 18:43:49
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 05:07:03
According to a Johns Hopkins University professor of "surgery and health policy & management",
If you gave us a name, rather than an appeal to authority, we might be able look at the report and make up our own minds.

Anyway, here's the original article.
https://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i2139.full
First thing I did was post a link to a letter signed by the JHU professor. When the spam-filter prohibited the link, you call that "appeal to authority" fallacy. Anyway.
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Offline casualty (OP)

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #10 on: 13/07/2021 19:53:42 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 13/07/2021 18:48:27
Once you realise that "safe" is a relative, rather than abstract  idea, it's clear that all the vaccine has to be is "probabaly less dangerous than not having it- and risking getting the virus".

On that score , it's safe.

It is interesting that things like human- or system- error aren't recorded on death certificates, but it's not because of some mystical or malign influence.
I wasn't contemplating any mysticism in this thread. I have a science degree with Phi Beta Kappa honors from Stanford, which I obtained excelling in science not mysticism.

The medical industry pays a ton to CNN for advertising. CNN then continuously airs medical-industry marketing / advertising / public-relations press-releases disguised as news stories about Covid-19, while ignoring the 685 Americans / day killed by the medical industry. This bias isn't for the sake of science or public health.

How many killed by pollution from the vaccine's manufacture? The FDA discounts those casualties, like it discounts climate change from the vaccine's manufacture, transportation, and administration. How many killed by economic hardship as a result of trillions being taken from the public by the government and transferred to the medical industry?
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #11 on: 13/07/2021 20:01:27 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 19:53:42
I have a science degree with Phi Beta Kappa honors from Stanford
One of the new universities, I see.
That's another failed attempt at argument from authority.

Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 19:53:42
How many killed by pollution from the vaccine's manufacture?
Have you ruled out zero as the answer to that?
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #12 on: 13/07/2021 20:56:17 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 18:36:10
Quote from: alancalverd on 13/07/2021 09:28:43
Medical mistakes only occur when (a) the patient is sick and (b) you are trying to heal him.
(c) you exclude elective treatments and experimental vaccines?
(d) the medical industry manufacturing the Oxycontin-addiction epidemic for profit was not really the medical industry trying to "heal" patients; it was the industry doing something else
(e) You imply that, for example, experimental vaccines not approved by the FDA are safe, but not even the FDA is willing to call Covid vaccine safe, because it's experimental. People who take it are guinea pigs in human experimentation, not taking a drug deemed "safe" by FDA.
I have no idea what you included in your 685 fatal medical mistakes per day, nor how those figures were compiled. Nevertheless

"Elective" treatment means treatment that has been scheduled,i.e non-emergency treatment of actual pathology. You may have confused this with "vanity" treatment, where there is nothing medically wrong with the customer.

I sit on a medical research ethics committee that regularly reviews proposals for novel treatments including experimental vaccines. If you don't experiment, you won't develop anything. So are you advocating stasis? Volunteers for experimental procedures must be fully briefed on the risks, and a large part of our job is to ascertain that risks are clearly and accurately set out, and that only those  fully capable of understanding the risks are allowed to consent to the trial. I  wouldn't class an adverse reaction to an experimental technique as a mistake, though mistakes do occassionally occur in the trial procedures and any that lead to adverse events are strenuously investigated.

Oxycontin was manufactured as a potent analgesic, and is extremely effective.  It is potentially addictive, but if you want to name a really effective, addictive killer, try  handguns (which have no other function), religion, or alcohol. 

I didn't mention the word "safe" or imply it, nor is it the case that anything approved by the FDA is safe, especially if misused. Medicine is all about a balance of risk.

A military surgeon of my acquaintance recounted his experience of the Second World War thus: "When war broke out, they gave me a pistol. No idea why - I killed more people with my scalpel." 

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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #13 on: 13/07/2021 21:09:44 »
It is something that is widely studied.

https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/a-Jan-21/Life-years

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7345973/
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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #14 on: 14/07/2021 01:35:36 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 13/07/2021 20:01:27
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 19:53:42
I have a science degree with Phi Beta Kappa honors from Stanford
One of the new universities, I see.
That's another failed attempt at argument from authority.
That was my first actual appeal to authority. It was a direct response to the suggestion I was contemplating mysticism, ad hom straw man. It's a fallacy, but good enough to ward off M.D.'s who pretend their degrees matter.

Quote
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 19:53:42
How many killed by pollution from the vaccine's manufacture?
Have you ruled out zero as the answer to that?
"The U.S. health care system contributes significantly to country-wide air and water pollution, and hence, to pollution-related health damages. U.S. health care activities were responsible for 9% to 10% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2013.... We projected that annual [greenhouse-gas] emissions associated with health care in the United States would cause [annually] 123,000 to 381,000 disability-adjusted life-years in future health damages... [Furthermore, non-GHG] health care-associated emissions... contribute to acid rain (12% of the national total), photochemical smog (10%), and respiratory disease (9%). Public health damages from exposure to non-GHG emissions were subsequently estimated at 405,000 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) annually...." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5922190/
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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #15 on: 14/07/2021 01:38:33 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 13/07/2021 20:56:17
I have no idea what you included in your 685 fatal medical mistakes per day, nor how those figures were compiled.
The source is cited in the original post. NPR article, unless Google is not showing you that. NPR links to letter signed by JHU professor. What more can I do to disclose the methodology?

Edited to add: Looks like I can post it now:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2822345-Hopkins-CDC-letter.html
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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #16 on: 14/07/2021 01:51:28 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 13/07/2021 20:56:17

are you advocating stasis?
I thought the CDC could stop misleading the public with deceptive stats covering up for the medical industry. Media could stop disguising medical-industry commercials as news stories. That wouldn't require stasis.

Quote
if you want to name a really effective, addictive killer, try  handguns (which have no other function)
But for each American killed by gun homicide, 23 are killed by the medical industry. My mother, killed by the medical industry, not a gun; me, dying from medical-industry mistreatment, not from a gun. I don't feel better about it because doctors supposedly have some other purpose. I see their ostensible other purpose being used to downplay the cost of my death.

Who outside the medical industry wants the CDC to continue misleading the public with deceptive stats?
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #17 on: 14/07/2021 10:47:24 »
If teh only stats that are collected are deceptive, how do you know the real numbers?
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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #18 on: 14/07/2021 16:31:47 »
Quote from: casualty on 14/07/2021 01:51:28
me, dying from medical-industry mistreatment
What are you being treated for? If you know the treatment is wrong, why are you continuing with it?
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Re: Numerical perspective
« Reply #19 on: 14/07/2021 16:55:25 »
Quote from: casualty on 13/07/2021 05:07:03
According to a Johns Hopkins University professor of "surgery and health policy & management", the medical industry kills 250 thousand Americans / year (685 / day). Source: "Medical Errors Are No. 3 Cause Of U.S Deaths, Researchers Say", NPR article, 2016-May-03. That figure is lower that Covid-19 at its worst, but by no more than an order of magnitude.
Have you a source for that?

Medical errors and medical failures are 2 different things. So is the difference between such things as turning off life support, pain relief being more than the patient can tolerate, allergic reactionsor a patient passing away on the operating table and such things as administering incorrect drugs, neglect of care once under medical treatment or contaminated blood.

If there where 250,000 us citizens passing annually from actual legal neglegence with the compensation culture that abounds in the USA that would be a very very big expense at 10 million bucks a pop. The sheer threat of being sued may be a factor in the hesitancy to act in good faith, which again does not constitute a negligence death, no one can ban man's biological frailty nor litigate away his mortal nature.
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