[Petrochemicals (OP)]

 Brazils cases and mortality rate totals are ebbing now, lower than the uk. They have less people vaccinated, many with inactivated virus type inoculations, yet it seems to be over, is it?

[evan_au]

The Presidential strategy in Brazil was that everyone should keep doing everything normally, despite COVID.
- But policies have not been uniform across Brazil - Rio de Janeiro had long periods of lockdown (only recently overtaken by Melbourne Australia as the city with the most lockdowns).
- So there are still likely to be pockets of susceptible people.
- I don't think anyone is carefully tracking infections in the jungle...

Apparently, in 2020, there was a town in Brazil where about 75% had been infected (showed COVID antibodies). But when Delta arrived, many became ill again. So a different variant can bypass immunity.

Brazil obtained supplies of the Chinese vaccine; efficacy was reportedly less than Astra-Zeneca, but even this would still help with immunity.. Presumably, the delta-specific antibody levels are even higher now, so they should be approaching herd immunity, and we should see a decline in Delta infections.

[alancalverd]

With more than 600,000 deaths reported to date, it is possible that the virus has exhausted the most fragile targets but the number of new cases is beginning to rise, so we may see at least a low level endemic developing. As Evan says, the statistics only reflect the urbanised population so the true picture could be a disaster, or nothing at all, in the jungle. And of course the population is getting older by the day, whilst the virus is mutating by the minute. It ain't over 'til it's over.

The good news is that the Brazilian Senate report makes a firm case for prosecuting the president, and hopefully sets a precedent for parliamentary and judicial action elsewhere.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Brazil monitored manaus very well, that is the largest city in the jungle, but much of the jungle has very few inhabitants, Manaus is the largest city in the entire amazon but has only a population of 2 million people.

I cannot see any evidence of a rise in infections, it may mean that they are not bothering to test and the vaccine is keeping the mortality numbers down.

600,000 is a mortality rate of about 0.3%, but this does not define how many are excess deaths over the normal. It may be possible to get a better picture of mortality rate from excess deaths.

[Bored chemist]

"Is it all over in Brazil?"
No.

[alancalverd]

600,000 is a mortality rate of about 0.3%,

No, 3%. Same as pretty well everywhere else.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

600,000 is a mortality rate of about 0.3%,

No, 3%. Same as pretty well everywhere else.

A 1% would be a population of 60 million, Britain is bigger than the uk.

[set fair]

There are only two hopes that the virus has finished with Brazil - no hope and Bob Hope. Corona viruses like rhino viruses and flu have a life history which includes coming back to reinfect previously infected hosts.

If you make the optimistic guess that on average a person will be infeacted once every thousand days, then you can gei the average number of daily new infections by knocking three zeros off a country's population. In the UK that would be 68,000 new infections per day in the long term.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

There are only two hopes that the virus has finished with Brazil - no hope and Bob Hope. Corona viruses like rhino viruses and flu have a life history which includes coming back to reinfect previously infected hosts.

If you make the optimistic guess that on average a person will be infeacted once every thousand days, then you can gei the average number of daily new infections by knocking three zeros off a country's population. In the UK that would be 68,000 new infections per day in the long term.

That is not what we have been told according to the herd immunity model, but then again the herd immunity does not seem to have come to fruition, it does not seem to work like the measles vaccine as the population of Britain has been largely vaccinated for over 6 months and still corona spreads, 99 percent of all people who are perishing with corona are not vaccinated so vaccination does not protect others.

This Corona has only been around for 2 years so only 666 days so far, so no reemergence.

[alancalverd]

Britain is bigger than the uk.

So The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is smaller than Great Britain? Probably explains why every tax penny spent bribing Northern Ireland politicians disappears without trace.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Britain is bigger than the uk.

So The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is smaller than Great Britain? Probably explains why every tax penny spent bribing Northern Ireland politicians disappears without trace.

Probably meant Brazil, that is where the 600,000 figure is from.

[set fair]

There are only two hopes that the virus has finished with Brazil - no hope and Bob Hope. Corona viruses like rhino viruses and flu have a life history which includes coming back to reinfect previously infected hosts.

If you make the optimistic guess that on average a person will be infeacted once every thousand days, then you can gei the average number of daily new infections by knocking three zeros off a country's population. In the UK that would be 68,000 new infections per day in the long term.

That is not what we have been told according to the herd immunity model, but then again the herd immunity does not seem to have come to fruition, it does not seem to work like the measles vaccine as the population of Britain has been largely vaccinated for over 6 months and still corona spreads, 99 percent of all people who are perishing with corona are not vaccinated so vaccination does not protect others.

This Corona has only been around for 2 years so only 666 days so far, so no reemergence.

You're right herd immunity looks like a dead duck. I said back in december that with 70% vaccination, the virus would spread as readily in 2021 as it did in 2020. https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=81316.msg623379#msg623379 We know that the other four human corona viruses aren't stopped by infection induced immunity so it was folly to think vacccination induced immunity would succed where "natural" immunity failed.

[Bored chemist]

it was folly to think vacccination induced immunity would succed where "natural" immunity failed.

That depends on what you consider to be success.
A much lower death rate, slower spread and "flattening the curve" are real benefits.
The vaccine is already a succes.

[set fair]

it was folly to think vacccination induced immunity would succed where "natural" immunity failed.

That depends on what you consider to be success.
A much lower death rate, slower spread and "flattening the curve" are real benefits.
The vaccine is already a succes.

Yes vaccines keep a lot of prople out of the morgue but in the post from which you quote I was addressing success in creating herd immunity.

[Bored chemist]

Herd immunity that has "failed" may be the difference between covid 19 and the common colds that are due to coronaviruses.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

There are only two hopes that the virus has finished with Brazil - no hope and Bob Hope. Corona viruses like rhino viruses and flu have a life history which includes coming back to reinfect previously infected hosts.

If you make the optimistic guess that on average a person will be infeacted once every thousand days, then you can gei the average number of daily new infections by knocking three zeros off a country's population. In the UK that would be 68,000 new infections per day in the long term.

That is not what we have been told according to the herd immunity model, but then again the herd immunity does not seem to have come to fruition, it does not seem to work like the measles vaccine as the population of Britain has been largely vaccinated for over 6 months and still corona spreads, 99 percent of all people who are perishing with corona are not vaccinated so vaccination does not protect others.

This Corona has only been around for 2 years so only 666 days so far, so no reemergence.

You're right herd immunity looks like a dead duck. I said back in december that with 70% vaccination, the virus would spread as readily in 2021 as it did in 2020. https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=81316.msg623379#msg623379 We know that the other four human corona viruses aren't stopped by infection induced immunity so it was folly to think vacccination induced immunity would succed where "natural" immunity failed.

It does not look that way in Brazil for one country, it does look like herd immunity has been almost achieved.

[alancalverd]

Improbable. You need to distinguish between herd immunity, where the next generation does not express symptoms after infection, and saturation of the reporting system, which is apparent from the shape of the cumulative cases curve and tells you nothing about the immunity of the population if the sampling is inefficient.

If you look at the cases reported per day in Brazil you can see a few enormous peaks of up to 150,000 on a single day, standing out from an average of 35,000. This suggests something very sporadic and therefore unreliable in the reporting system.

Worth comparing the largely unknown quantity of Brazil, with  about 3.5% of the population reported as infected to date, with the well-characterised statistics of the UK (easy communication, free health service, relatively little official corruption....) showing 17% infected to date. If the stats are credible and herd immunity is possible, the UK will obviously get there first.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Improbable. You need to distinguish between herd immunity, where the next generation does not express symptoms after infection, and saturation of the reporting system, which is apparent from the shape of the cumulative cases curve and tells you nothing about the immunity of the population if the sampling is inefficient.

If you look at the cases reported per day in Brazil you can see a few enormous peaks of up to 150,000 on a single day, standing out from an average of 35,000. This suggests something very sporadic and therefore unreliable in the reporting system.

Worth comparing the largely unknown quantity of Brazil, with  about 3.5% of the population reported as infected to date, with the well-characterised statistics of the UK (easy communication, free health service, relatively little official corruption....) showing 17% infected to date. If the stats are credible and herd immunity is possible, the UK will obviously get there first.

Politically Alan, the medics are ready to attribute anything negative to bolsonaro.  All of these lockdowns could end up exasserbating the situation by prolonging the duration of the critical period and giving corona more time to infect the vulnerable.

[alancalverd]

It will always infect the vulnerable. In fact it will infect anyone who isn't vaccinated (and a few who are), but only kills the most vulnerable. It just takes longer to infect a rural population.

[Bored chemist]

Politically Alan, the medics are ready to attribute anything negative to bolsonaro. 

They can do it scientifically too.