[Bored chemist]

it does look like herd immunity has been almost achieved.

It is far too early to tell.
Come back in 3 years.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

It will always infect the vulnerable. In fact it will infect anyone who isn't vaccinated (and a few who are), but only kills the most vulnerable. It just takes longer to infect a rural population.

I would not call Austria rural, plus it seems to be spreading amongst the vaccinated.

I begin to wonder whether the astra zenica is better than the Pfizer in longevity of protection.

[evan_au]

herd immunity looks like a dead duck

If natural immunity is lifetime, there is a good chance that a vaccine will also give lifetime immunity, eg measles.
If natural immunity is almost non-existent, a vaccine will be a real struggle, eg HIV/AIDS.
One could conclude that if natural immunity lasts a only few years, the vaccine might only last a few years, too, eg influenza or coronaviruses (COVID is a member of this family).

In the shorter term, a form of herd immunity might be achievable with high vaccination rates. The following is a back-of-the-envelope calculation:
- Delta strain is thought to have an R₀ around 6-8 (let's call it 7)
- That means, in the absence of other measures (like masks, or social distancing), one infected person will infect about 7 others, on average.
- The infection will die down if each infected person comes in contact with less than 1 susceptible person.
- If the vaccine were 100% effective, that means you would need a vaccination rate of > 6/7 or >86%
- We know that the current vaccines only give about 50% protection against Delta, after 6 months.
- That means you need a vaccination rate of >13/14, or >93%
- Some countries are approaching this level of vaccination, like parts of Australia
- Infection by the virus itself also provides immunity, so you need a (vaccination+infection) rate of >13/14, or >93%
- Wearing masks and social distancing also reduce transmission significantly
- So there are signs that Delta could be contained for now, in some countries
- Other variants are a lottery!
 
There are differences in the type of immunity produced by vaccination & natural infection:
- The vaccines just target part of the spike protein, while natural infection will generate antibodies to many parts of the virus
- The vaccine-induced antibodies tend to neutralize the virus so it can't infect cells; not all natural infections produce neutralizing antibodies
- If the spike protein mutates, the vaccines may lose much of their effectiveness, while natural infection will still have antibodies that recognize other, non-mutated parts of the virus, so it is a broader immunity.

Apparently, being vaccinated halves your chances of catching COVID (a breakthrough infection), and if you are infected, halves your chance of getting Long COVID. So that's a bonus for risk of disability!
See: https://theconversation.com/long-covid-double-vaccination-halves-risk-of-developing-long-lasting-symptoms-165270

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The UK has overtaken Brazil in mortality rate, Norway Finland and Denmark are  catching up to sweden, even saintly New Zealand has a mortality rate around half that of Brazil.

[alancalverd]

Huge difference in the"population pyramid". Brazil has a bulge around age 30 - 50 compared with UK an Scandinavia which have a larger proportion of older folk. And we have no idea of the true figure for the rural population of Brazil.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Huge difference in the"population pyramid". Brazil has a bulge around age 30 - 50 compared with UK an Scandinavia which have a larger proportion of older folk. And we have no idea of the true figure for the rural population of Brazil.

Of course, adjust the evidence to fit your opinion, it makes perfect sense! They many now be under reporting to buoy up De Silva, which would mean they over reported to sink Bolsonaro, but I think it's a bit much to call Brazil is a crap country compared to the UK or usa Alan. Brazil also has more native people who have proven to be more susceptible.

Fact is Brazil was ahead, is now behind, Norway not excelling, new Zealand half as bad as the UK.

[Bored chemist]

Of course, adjust the evidence to fit your opinion

Tell me, How did Alan adjust Brazil's demographics?

I think it's a bit much to call Brazil is a crap country

You are the only one to have used that adjective...

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

herd immunity looks like a dead duck

If natural immunity is lifetime, there is a good chance that a vaccine will also give lifetime immunity, eg measles.
If natural immunity is almost non-existent, a vaccine will be a real struggle, eg HIV/AIDS.

I would think that it is more to do with virus mutation characteristics, influenza is known to mutate to evade the immune system. As we have been told the usual path is to mutate to less lethal forms. Natural immunity to small pox was low, so too tuberculosis, yet highly effective vaccines do imbue herd immunity.

In the shorter term, a form of herd immunity might be achievable with high vaccination rates.

But it was not as the vaccines where no where near effective enough and also had many severe side effects, people ending up in hospital etc. The polio vaccine took decades to develop.

[paul cotter]

The vaccines have a low rate of side effects. Any medical intervention carries some risk. The covid vaccines were produced rapidly as technology had advanced since the time of the polio vaccine.

[alancalverd]

Herd immunity doesn't imply a change in the genetics or physiology of members of the herd, so "imbue" isn't really the right word. What happens is that you immunise enough members that the virus has very little chance of spreading, so a few members die, a few develop natural immunity and recover, and the rest never develop any symptoms or receive a viable dose of the virus at all.

It's statistics, not genetics, which is why sensible folk worry when childhood immunisation rates decline before the critical point at which the virus loses the game.

Stalin said "one death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic". This was never more true than in the antiscience of COVID reporting. There are indeed a few egregious sideffects leading to disability or death, but the problem with a mass vaccination program is that whilst every such case makes headlines, we never know how many lives have been saved. The only measure of success is a declining excess mortality after the introduction of the program, but if you start early and vaccinate everyone, which is the ethical thing to do, the initial excess mortality will be too low to measure the difference!

Chris Whitty said at the beginning of the UK vaccination and quarantine campaign "If, in a year's time, people ask what all the fuss was about, we will have got it right." Or maybe wasted millions of pounds - we'll never know!

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Herd immunity doesn't imply a change in the genetics or physiology of members of the herd,

It would not be expected to alter the herds study of the physicality of biological entities, given it is an interlectual foray into an unknown realm. It does however alter the physiological make up of the herd due to it imbuing protection through creating an antibody reaction within the hosts to stop infectious existences, thusly stopping the microorganism infection permiating through the herd to the most vulnerable members who perhaps cannot be vaccinated against said virus.

The corona jabs did not do the above, they did not. They failed at herd immunity creation. It is questionable whether the children, who have only just started out in life, benifitted from the vaccination programme. It certainly didn't stop them catching corona and passing it on a la Measles.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/physiology

Herd immunity may be something created of the genetics of the future such as the AIDS, we could all be gene edited.

Physiological, phy-si-o-lo-gi-cal.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The vaccines have a low rate of side effects. Any medical intervention carries some risk. The covid vaccines were produced rapidly as technology had advanced since the time of the polio vaccine.

Yes but the children still became infectious with corona and spread it, some died from the vaccine, arguably more than would have died without the vaccine. This did not stop the virus spreading.

https://fullfact.org/health/covid-vaccine-deaths-children/

The virus programme stinks to high heaven of hush ups, it was a failure in preventing the spread, it just has to be touted as a sucess to justify arresting the entire country for 2 years. There was an excellent way to bestow herd immunity on the super spreader community, that was called let them catch the virus.

As for vaccines, they have the effect of creating a weaker populace by ratio. The more you save the more vunerable your population becomes, the pandemic of corona situation will recurr more often as people gain ever more medical intervention.

[Bored chemist]

The corona jabs did not do the above, they did not.

How do you know?

The thing about "herd immunity" is that there are two overlapping versions.
The old (medieval) one is where  you ignore the virus and let it kill those who are susceptible.
After that, the herd of survivors are immune.
That's the version which, at least some, Tories wanted.
It results in essentially the highest possible death toll.
And it's what PC wanted.

There was an excellent way to bestow herd immunity on the super spreader community, that was called let them catch the virus.

The second version is where you somehow "make" the herd immune- typically by vaccination, though you could do it by dosing them with anti-infective drugs.
If it was bubonic plague, you could create herd immunity by giving everyone Streptomycin . (this is usually a very bad idea- but it's workable locally in some cases- dosing everyone who was present when someone opened an envelope full of anthrax spores or whatever).

The thing is that the two types of herd immunity will overlap unless you can get the vaccinations done before the disease arrives (we sort of seek to do this with flu every year).

If there's and outbreak, after a while, the herd will have a much lower susceptibility to infection.
Some of that will be due to vaccination and some to "natural" infection.

And with a virus like covid which can be asymptomatic, it's impossible to tell which contributed more.

So PC is making a claim that he can't possibly back up.

That's more or less the reason for the footnote about me in all his posts.

[paul cotter]

Petro, I suspect you have become an anti-vax conspiracist. Do you suggest that we cease all medical interventions and hence improve our genetic standing? That's fine in theory until you are the patient requiring said intervention.

[alancalverd]

They failed at herd immunity creation.

Simply because initially the virus spread (thanks to government action and inaction) faster than anyone could develop, test and manufacture a vaccine. Once the WHO had established it as a world target it took 70 years to eradicate smallpox with a well-characterised vaccine. And there were indeed side effects. Similarly polio, which had been around for centuries.

The only question worth asking is what would have happened without quarantine and vaccination? Fortunately we know the answer from  Matt Hancock's unethical experiment.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Petro, I suspect you have become an anti-vax conspiracist. Do you suggest that we cease all medical interventions and hence improve our genetic standing? That's fine in theory until you are the patient requiring said intervention.

There is nothing to suggest that in anything I have typed, it is rather defamatory. Do you suggest we should give up on being vigilant on polio vaccines or take up homeopathy?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

They failed at herd immunity creation.

Simply because initially the virus spread

Because the vaccination programme implementation imbued immunity? Or was it the virus continued to spread.

To the untrained eye it could look like scientists and politicians tried to appear capable, came up with a vain plan, harped on about their glorious success and then swept any quantification of performance under the carpet, sodded it as a bad job, left everyone to cop it and moved on saying nothing of the performance.

Herd immunity. New Zealand, bastion of corona awareness, reliant on vaccine development is at about half the level of corona mortality than that of Sweden, vilified Scandinavian sluggards. Remember pre vaccine new Zealand had been successful at isolation and quarantine. It looks like NZ gave their corona policy up as a bad job too, a shame that their Ernstwhile ex Pm is not there to answer for it.

Brazil now better than the UK.

[paul cotter]

Petro, if you feel my comment was defamatory, then I apologise, but I thought that was the direction you were headed in. All of this argument is after the event and no one knew at the time how bad the situation could get. Remember that there is only one exact science and that is hindsight.

[Bored chemist]

There is nothing to suggest that in anything I have typed,

Well...

99 percent of all people who are perishing with corona are not vaccinated so vaccination does not protect others.

That's a non seq.

in Brazil for one country, it does look like herd immunity has been almost achieved.

the vaccines where no where near effective enough and also had many severe side effects, people ending up in hospital etc

And things like "

the medics are ready to attribute anything negative to bolsonaro

under reporting to buoy up De Silva, which would mean they over reported to sink Bolsonaro

Look like conspiracy stories to me.

So, yes, you did type stuff that makes you look like an antivax conspiracist.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Petro, if you feel my comment was defamatory, then I apologise, but I thought that was the direction you were headed in. All of this argument is after the event and no one knew at the time how bad the situation could get. Remember that there is only one exact science and that is hindsight.

That is rather indistinct considering you where suggesting taking any vaccine at any time, I said nothing to suggest conspiracy, if government skimming over uncomfortable facts were conspiracies HS2 would be the arch villain. I did ask whether you would espouse homeopathy?