[Bored chemist]

Gosh; My apologies to BC and you all as you correctly guessed I thought I was replying to the Environmental forum question of link between population expansion and global warming.  So sorry.
Anyhow, I agree with all the above comments but recommend charities major objective be family planning free aids, rather than food, health and medical care; particularly as with modern mechanisation a farmer with a tractor no longer needs a large family but as a responsible parent should ensure that his kids find a job to assist the community and a home to inherit in the future.

I deduce that you have never been starving through no fault of your own.

[alancalverd]

just to make the maths easy, we can consider the case where the birth rate drops to zero.

It makes the maths easy, but you are now answering a completely different question.  You could also ask what would happen if every female had 3 surviving children?

It's surely better to start with an objective and work out how to achieve it. My objective is to reach a UK population that is sustainable at the present standard of living or better, for as long as the sun shines. 

If you project the one-child policy for 100 years, you end up with a sustainable population with 5 times the per capita resources than at the beginning, and an improved quality of life for all (except bankers and builders) throughout that century.
 
Reverting to  2.1 children at any time will produce a stable state where everyone is better off than at present.

The good news is that the UK is currently running at about 1.6, so there is some hope that subsequent generations won't starve or freeze.

[Bored chemist]

If you project the one-child policy for 100 years,

What about a 1.1  child policy or 0.8?
(On average... obviously)

[Petrochemicals]

Reverting to  2.1 children at any time will produce a stable state where everyone is better off than at present.

Is that an admission Alan? (Providing you are not envisioning getting rid of pensions or pensioners)

[alancalverd]

It's a statement of obvious fact. Both you and BC need to understand the difference between a journey and a destination.

There is no need to "get rid" of pensioners - nature takes care of that. The trick is just to not make babies that you can't feed.

If the climate-resilient route to a prosperous and indefinitely sustainable society consists of doing nothing and spending nothing, why not try it?

[alancalverd]

What about a 1.1  child policy or 0.8?

Slight problem of enforcing or even encouraging women to bear fractional children. My plan is to
remove all child benefits
give every woman ?500 every 6 months if she isn't pregnant
except for the first pregnancy that results in a child who survives to, say, age 16.
The UK government has already moved oin the right direction.

[set fair]

The problem was the NHS and government panicked and totally over reacted to the declaration from World Health Organisations [WHO]  advice that a pandemic was about to hit the world.

 only 11 in 4500 people on the Diamond Cruise Ship died due to the covid

.
To blame is WHO for not having advised everyone that this was just a new flu virus and quell the media hype that was  exaggerating the pandemic out of all proportion and panicking politicians into pointless lockdowns and economic turmoil.

The WHO did not initiate panic. In fact by its existing definition it would have had to declare a global pandemic almost a month before it did. It delayed by redefining a global pandemic. It was still playing down Covid when the first lockdowns were instigated.

According to Wikipeodia 2% of those infected on Diamond cruise ship died. 2% of the Uk population is around 1.5 million people.Those who died on the ship were all, I think elderly, so obviously that doesn't translate to 1.5 million expected deaths in the UK but at the time there was sensible concern that under fives would would also be vulnerable.

The WHO don't come out of this well but I think the appalling modelling was probably more responsible for over reaction. Without lockdown the first wave would have peaked higher but probably not much higher. Hospitals would have been refusing admission (I am told the plan would have been an age bar, the oldest being the unlucky ones), Oxygen treatment would have been rationed and intensive care beds unavailable.

That said the claim that we could achieve herd immunity and the denial that were many people being re-infected in the alpha wave were bigger mistakes. The alpha variant evolved to evade immunity (the mutations were even predicted ahead of time as immune evasive). Immune evasion is only an evolutionary advantage when the virus is re-infecting previously infected individuals, but all sources were saying re-infection was rare at the time, ie the second half of 2020.

[Bored chemist]

Slight problem of enforcing or even encouraging women to bear fractional children.

I'm sorry you didn't understand what I said.

(On average... obviously)

Women do, currently have fractional children on average.

Now, please answer the question.

[Bored chemist]

Both you and BC need to understand the difference between a journey and a destination.

I pointed out the destination.

What happens over the period from 20 years to 59 years and 364 days later?
The WF drops to zero near zero.
And that one day's worth of people (due to retire "tomorrow") have to support the entire retired population. They will be paying several thousand percent tax to do it.

And the next day, the elderly have to look after themselves.

[Petrochemicals]

According to Wikipeodia 2% of those infected on Diamond cruise ship died. 2% of the Uk population is around 1.5 million people.

90 percent of people on the ship where over 50.

That said the claim that we could achieve herd immunity and the denial that were many people being re-infected in the alpha wave were bigger mistakes.

Yes, the vaccines did absolutley bugger all for herd immunity, not sure what effect prior infection had, but my mom has had corona twice since recieving a "vaccine".

[Bored chemist]

Yes, the vaccines did absolutley bugger all for herd immunity,

It's important to remember what "herd immunity" means.
It means letting the virus run riot; what's left of the herd will be immune.

If you are susceptible that's just hard luck. If you are lucky you might get a place in hospital and if not, you get a half day appointment with the undertaker.

The point of the vaccine was to reduce mortality and infectivity.
Which of those do you think is a bad thing?

We all accept that it wasn't perfect- things generally aren't.

 

[paul cotter]

Hi BC, I think you have an error: i'm sure you meant to say "the vaccine reduced mortality and infectivity".

[alancalverd]

90 percent of people on the ship where over 50.

As are about 30% of the UK population, so expect at least 500,000 excess deaths if you do nothing. Pretty much what happened, proportionally,  in the early stages.

[alancalverd]

Yes, the vaccines did absolutley bugger all for herd immunity,

Because vaccination is preventive - exactly the opposite of primary herd immunity. Secondary population resilience occurs when you have vaccinated enough people that the R value falls below 1. 

[Petrochemicals]

Yes, the vaccines did absolutley bugger all for herd immunity,

Because vaccination is preventive

Which corona vaccination was preventative for infection?

[alancalverd]

All of them. None 100% - vaccination doesn't work like that -  and some better than others, but any was better than none.

Quarantine is the only guaranteed way of preventing a transmissible disease becoming a pandemic, but humans are more stupid than a virus.

[Petrochemicals]

Which corona vaccination was preventative for infection?

All of them. None 100%

Preventative does usually mean to stop, the measles vaccine does this with enough coverage . Would you say it did 50 percent immunisation, if so with a rate of 90 percent inoculation a virus like corona it was still possible?

[alancalverd]

BS, my friend. We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Accidents, and one for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals. A fair bit of the police force and of the fire brigade is devoted to prevention, and whatever is left of the school nurse service  teaches preventive medicine, but sh1t still happens. As, alas, does measles.

The only 100% effective vaccination program to date was against smallpox, but it took 70 years and very stringent worldwide quarantine laws to achieve that result.

[set fair]

90 percent of people on the ship where over 50.

As are about 30% of the UK population, so expect at least 500,000 excess deaths if you do nothing. Pretty much what happened, proportionally,  in the early stages.

 

[set fair]

Yes, the vaccines did absolutley bugger all for herd immunity,

Because vaccination is preventive - exactly the opposite of primary herd immunity. Secondary population resilience occurs when you have vaccinated enough people that the R value falls below 1.

I don't think so. Vaccines to other diseases can achieve herd immunity. Corona viruses (and flu for that matter) has a life cycle which involves mutating and re-infecting hosts which is the reason why vaccines cannot induce herd immunity.