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Agreed, but first you need the data points, and until 1979 we had almost none outside the civilised and industrialised 2% of the earth's surface.
There is no such thing as a reversible process. That IS the entropy law.Again, it takes energy to get a process to go in reverse. You can't just collect smoke, ashes and heat back together to make a log you can burn a second time without expending some energy.
Yes there is- it's a process in which energy isn't lost or dissipated as heat.So, for example the reaction between a positron and an electron gives rise to a pair of gamma rays.And the reverse process - called pair production also happens.Where do you think energy is lost?It simply isn't.So the reaction is reversible.And you don't understand the concept of entropy so you are sticking to some simplification which, I guess, you read in a book."Again, it takes energy to get a process to go in reverse."Only if energy was lost, or degraded to heat and in the positron electron annihilation it wasn't.You can't just collect smoke, ashes and heat back together to make a log you can burn a second time without expending some energy. "Nobody said you could, so why do you waste everyone's time saying things like that?You chose to illustrate entropy with one of the small number of reactions where there is no entropy change.That was spectacularly dumb. And you are compounding it by refusing to accept that you are wrong (about this as well as lots of other things).
The only thing spectacularly dumb is you acting like you know what you are talking about when you are ignorant.From Wikipedia: "In order for pair production to occur, the incoming energy of the interaction MUST BE ABOVE A THRESHOLD in order to create the pair – AT LEAST the total rest mass energy of the two particles."
You do indeed need that much energy.And that much energy is exactly equal to the energy of the two photons that are destroyed in the reverse reaction.That's why it balances exactly and that's why the entropy change is exactly zero.And, if you knew what you were talking about,- rather than parroting stuff from WIKI, you would have known that.
Quote from: Bored chemist on 09/04/2016 17:06:46You do indeed need that much energy.And that much energy is exactly equal to the energy of the two photons that are destroyed in the reverse reaction.That's why it balances exactly and that's why the entropy change is exactly zero.And, if you knew what you were talking about,- rather than parroting stuff from WIKI, you would have known that.On the contrary, if you knew what you were talking about, you wouldn't be locked in battle with an artist in a public forum, grabbing at straws to make your point. You would be hanging out with real scientists and making factual statements.No, the entropy change is not zero when it takes a bazillion gigawatts to create a single pair of particles in a particle accelerator that took years to build. To suggest otherwise is scientifically ignorant buffoonery, and completely disregards the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics.
Okay, fine. Disregard the Vostok ice cores and just look at this data, all collected since 1979:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.fig3.pnghttp://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-Tropics%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gifhttps://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/seaice-anomaly-antarctic.png?w=720&h=585http://www.barrettbellamyclimate.com/userimages/Fig8.jpghttps://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/figure-1.pnghttp://appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Part2_GlobalTempMeasure_files/image046.jpghttps://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/01-ncdc-since-1979.png
Nobody would deny that there is a correlation (though I am surprised at how weak it is, according to your sources). Correlation is not proof of causation. So far, every predictive model based on the assumption of CO2 causation has turned out to be wrong, and this is the point at which Scientific Method suggests that the hypothesis is wrong. Either that or the modellers are really incompetent, and I'm sure you wouldn't agree with that.
There are two major questions in climate modeling - can they accurately reproduce the past (hindcasting) and can they successfully predict the future? To answer the first question, here is a summary of the IPCC model results of surface temperature from the 1800s - both with and without man-made forcings. All the models are unable to predict recent warming without taking rising CO2 levels into account. Nobody has created a general circulation model that can explain climate's behavior over the past century without CO2 warming.
When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it provided an opportunity to test how successfully models could predict the climate response to the sulfate aerosols injected into the atmosphere. The models accurately forecasted the subsequent global cooling of about 0.5°C soon after the eruption. Furthermore, the radiative, water vapor and dynamical feedbacks included in the models were also quantitatively verified (Hansen 2007).
El Niño /ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.
ENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven-year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. Evidence is also strong for El Niño events during the early Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago.[26]El Niño may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures.[27] A recent study suggests a strong El-Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution.[28] The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century.[29] The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.[30]
Many ENSO linkages exist in the high southern latitudes around Antarctica.[81] Specifically, El Niño conditions result in high pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat fluxes in these sectors, as well as the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. The exact opposite heating and atmospheric pressure anomalies occur during La Niña.[82] This pattern of variability is known as the Antarctic dipole mode, although the Antarctic response to ENSO forcing is not ubiquitous.[82]El Niño's effects on Europe appear to be strongest in winter. Recent evidence indicates that El Niño causes a colder, drier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, wetter winter in Southern Europe.[83] The El Niño winter of 2009/10 was extremely cold in Northern Europe but El Niño is not the only factor at play in European winter weather and the weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.[84]
If you look at current climate change, much of this can be attributed to the El Nino. QuoteEl Niño /ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the International Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.This El Nino affect was first discovered in 1795, centuries before manmade global warming. I think there confusion being created where these two affects; El Nino affects being blended with the new climate change branding for global warming. El Nino has been around since before the industrial revolution, yet its current climate affects are being treated, by layman activists, like it is due to CO2. QuoteENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven-year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. Evidence is also strong for El Niño events during the early Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago.[26]El Niño may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures.[27] A recent study suggests a strong El-Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution.[28] The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century.[29] The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.[30]QuoteMany ENSO linkages exist in the high southern latitudes around Antarctica.[81] Specifically, El Niño conditions result in high pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced sea ice and increased poleward heat fluxes in these sectors, as well as the Ross Sea. The Weddell Sea, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. The exact opposite heating and atmospheric pressure anomalies occur during La Niña.[82] This pattern of variability is known as the Antarctic dipole mode, although the Antarctic response to ENSO forcing is not ubiquitous.[82]El Niño's effects on Europe appear to be strongest in winter. Recent evidence indicates that El Niño causes a colder, drier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, wetter winter in Southern Europe.[83] The El Niño winter of 2009/10 was extremely cold in Northern Europe but El Niño is not the only factor at play in European winter weather and the weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.[84]What causes the cyclic oscillation between El Nino and La Nina is an upwelling of cold ocean water below the warm water; thermocline. This is shown below. How does CO2 cause cold water to upwell? The new branding of climate change equals CO2, appears to cause many people to assume anything dramatic in weather and climate means climate change = CO2. But El Nino does the same thing even before there was the CO2 scare.
I don't believe the weather models are using liquid state physics. CO2 in air and CO2 in water use two different sets of physics; gas and liquid state physics.
"No, the entropy change is not zero when it takes a bazillion gigawatts to create a single pair of particles"It doesn't take a "bazzillion gigawatts" for two reasons.the first is that what it takes is energy and what you have there is in units of power.It's as if you are trying to weigh something in feet and inches.But the important thins is that the energy you need to make the electron and positron is exactly the energy of the two gamma rays you get from the annihilation.So, if you have just done the annihilation, do don't need a collider- because the energy is already there.You seem not to have noticed that the collider and so on did not appear in your diagram.That diagram shows a reversible reaction whether you understand it or not.It has an entropy change of exactly zero whether you like it or not, and all you are doing by arguing is making yourself look foolish.
Quote from: puppypower on 10/04/2016 12:11:00I don't believe the weather models are using liquid state physics. CO2 in air and CO2 in water use two different sets of physics; gas and liquid state physics. That belief would be wrong. Also, irrelevant as weather models and climate models are different things.
Quote from: Bored chemist on 09/04/2016 18:02:34"No, the entropy change is not zero when it takes a bazillion gigawatts to create a single pair of particles"It doesn't take a "bazzillion gigawatts" for two reasons.the first is that what it takes is energy and what you have there is in units of power.It's as if you are trying to weigh something in feet and inches.But the important thins is that the energy you need to make the electron and positron is exactly the energy of the two gamma rays you get from the annihilation.So, if you have just done the annihilation, do don't need a collider- because the energy is already there.You seem not to have noticed that the collider and so on did not appear in your diagram.That diagram shows a reversible reaction whether you understand it or not.It has an entropy change of exactly zero whether you like it or not, and all you are doing by arguing is making yourself look foolish.YOU DON'T GET TO SWEEP ALL THAT EXTRA ENERGY UNDER THE RUG.There's a lot of wasted energy that goes into a particle collision, A LOT. Denying that makes YOU look foolish. It doesn't matter what units you use for that energy, which is just another silly argument. Anyone who knows anything about physics knows it takes a lot of energy to get even a single particle with mass up to near light speed.I understand the process is reversible, as I've pointed out a bazillion times, but you still don't seem to understand that in order to make it go the other way requires massive energy input, much more than you get back when the particles decay. That's the very essence of the Entropy law, and if there were more scientists here, they would be pointing that out instead of me.Nothing I have stated in this post is incorrect. Now, you and jeffreyHemorrhoid go ahead and tell me I'm incorrect.
The energy released when an apple falls off a table is about a Joule.The energy needed to accelerate an electron to half the speed of light is about 10^-14 JoulesSo you could bring several million million particles to nearly the speed of light with the energy released by dropping an apple.Do you still stand by this laughable claim?" Anyone who knows anything about physics knows it takes a lot of energy to get even a single particle with mass up to near light speed."Do you understand that the reaction you cited produces nothing but energy- in the form of two gamma rays- and that is enough energy (exactly) to recreate an electron and a positron.It also does actually matter if you use the wrong units because you don't understand that you are measuring the wrong thing. But that's beside the point.
Craig,here are some of the things you have got wrong in this thread.I have numbered them 1 to 127 for easier reference.Quote from: Tim the Plumber on 19/03/2016 12:19:511 "No, the amount of heat produced directly by human activity is utterly tiny in comparison with the heat budget of nature. "