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  4. Universal Utopia? What's The Universal Terminal Goal?
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Universal Utopia? What's The Universal Terminal Goal?

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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #160 on: 02/10/2020 09:13:13 »
I've also posted somewhere else my thoughts about consciousness which plays as the core issue in this thread as well.
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 02/10/2020 09:03:29
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 02/09/2020 05:58:20
I have described consciousness in this thread as well as my other threads discussing about universal terminal goal.
Since they haven't seem enough, here is a simplified description by stating absolute minimum requirements for a system to be called conscious.
- It has internal structures which represent states of itself and its environment.
- That internal structures can change according to the change of the environment.
In my previous posts I've also mentioned another requirement for consciousness which is relevant to morality, which is having internal/subjective preferences. It would follow that conscious systems have the capacity to build two virtual maps internally, which are described in is and ought problem, or known as Hume's guillotine.
Another criteria for a conscious system is the capacity to manipulate its environment, which is represented in "is map" in its memory system to get closer to its "ought map", which is affected by its internal/subjective preferences.

The role of moral rules with reward and punishment are then to modify internal/subjective preferences of conscious systems to make them aligned with the goal of larger systems they are being part of (e.g. their family, tribe, company, nation). Primitive forms of those manipulation are done by inflicting pain and pleasure which can be directly felt. The next forms are done by causing fear and giving hope, which can only work for conscious systems with capability of understanding cause and effect, so they can predict/anticipate future condition when some information about the present is given.

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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #161 on: 08/10/2020 09:20:49 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 02/09/2020 07:46:08
Preserving resource seems to be the least controversial, most agreeable and easiest to evaluate, especially when comparing actions with the same result. Perhaps we can call it a universal instrumental goal. In philosophy, we get Occam's razor while in industry we get lean manufacturing from the same principle.

Through out history, innovations tend to reduce cost to achieve particular goals. Steam engines, tractors, automatic electronic switchboards all reduce labor costs in manufacturing, agriculture, and telecommunication sectors. Robotaxi will soon make taxi drivers obsolete. Self driving trucks will soon make truck drivers obsolete. AI can already outperform investment managers. OpenAI's GPT-3 can already write codes is different programming languages. No job is really secure from threat of AI. But then again, jobs are just instrumental goal.

Quote
Some quotes from Elon Musk in the presentation:
"If the schedule is long it's wrong, if it's tight its right."

"The best part is no part."

"The best process is no process."
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21109554

If the trend continuous, we will get rid of most non-essential burdens. Any system that refuse to follow suit will be outcompeted by those who do. No phone company can survive by retaining human switchboard operators.
Some instrumental goals might by suitable for particular time and conditions. At another time and place, other instrumental goals might be better. Only a universal terminal goal can never change.
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #162 on: 12/10/2020 15:20:08 »
Even in Indonesia, which is not usually assosiated with high technology adoption, has already started to replace human positions with AI.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/11/28/indonesia-to-replace-ministerial-aides-with-ai.html
Quote
  President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has said the government will replace some civil service positions with artificial intelligence, instructing ministers to remove two ranks of public servants.

“I have ordered ministers to replace echelon III and IV officials with AI [because] our bureaucracy will be faster with AI, but it would depend on the omnibus law,” the president said in Jakarta on Thursday, adding that doing so would cut red tape. 
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #163 on: 13/10/2020 06:51:59 »
Consciousness and individuality which are central in this topic are included in Problem of Universals.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_universals
Quote
The problem of universals is an ancient question from metaphysics which has inspired a range of philosophical topics and disputes. Should the properties an object has in common with other objects, such as colour and shape, be considered to exist beyond those objects? And if a property exists separately from objects, what is the nature of that existence?[1]

The problem of universals relates to various inquiries closely related to metaphysics, logic, and epistemology, as far back as Plato and Aristotle, in efforts to define the mental connections a human makes when they understand a property such as shape or colour to be the same in nonidentical objects.[2]

Universals are qualities or relations found in two or more entities.[3] As an example, if all cup holders are circular in some way, circularity may be considered a universal property of cup holders.[4] Further, if two daughters can be considered female offspring of Frank, the qualities of being female, offspring, and of Frank, are universal properties of the two daughters. Many properties can be universal:- being human, red, male or female, liquid or solid, big or small, etc.[5]

Philosophers agree that human beings can talk and think about universals, but disagree on whether universals exist in reality beyond mere thought and speech.
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #164 on: 21/10/2020 23:03:28 »
Here is a universal algorithm to achieve a goal.
1. Set up the criteria to determine if the goal is achieved.
2. Check relevant parameters of current condition.
3. Compare those parameters with criteria of goal achievement.
4. If the criteria aren't met, then something must change, and loop back to step 2.
5. Otherwise, stop.

If the effort involves intermediate or instrumental goals, then modifying them is part of step 4. Terminal goals never change.

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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #165 on: 22/10/2020 05:04:03 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 21/10/2020 23:03:28
Here is a universal algorithm to achieve a goal.
1. Set up the criteria to determine if the goal is achieved.
2. Check relevant parameters of current condition.
3. Compare those parameters with criteria of goal achievement.
4. If the criteria aren't met, then something must change, and loop back to step 2.
5. Otherwise, stop.

If the effort involves intermediate or instrumental goals, then modifying them is part of step 4. Terminal goals never change.


Let's try to use the algorithm for the case of universal terminal goal.
1. Bring down existential threats of conscious system to 0.
2. List down known existential threats, either natural or otherwise artificial. E.g. super volcano, asteroid impact, gamma ray burst, the sun goes red giant, nuclear war, AGI goes berserk.
3. Check if those threats are manageable/avoidable. With current technology, many threats are still out of control.
4. Plan and do changes to control residual risks. Update the list of existential threats, back to step 2.
One of foremost efforts in step 4 is reducing dependency of civilization on a single planet.
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-future-space-plans-2019-5
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/blue-moon-beyond-jeff-bezos-plans-take-civilization-space-starting-lunar-colony/
Quote
It’s our choice: a finite world with limited resources, or an infinite universe with unlimited potential. Those were the options presented by Jeff Bezos this week he laid out his plan to colonize the Moon as a first step toward a future with as many as a trillion people in space.
Other notable efforts are merging human intelligence with artificial intelligence through direct brain connection, and perhaps future genome modifications to make civilization more suitable to live in space or other planets.
« Last Edit: 22/10/2020 05:15:04 by hamdani yusuf »
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #166 on: 01/11/2020 10:24:09 »
The changes can be classified into two basic types: random and directed changes, which can be divided further into positive and negative changes. In simple models of optimization, we use gradient descent to find local minima or gradient ascent for local maxima.
But to find global minimum/maximum (extrema), an algorithm needs the ability to get free from being stuck at local extrema. It means the necessity to violate the rules of gradient descend/ascend, at least temporarily to find a higher local maximum or lower local minimum.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2020 22:20:32 by hamdani yusuf »
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #167 on: 01/11/2020 22:22:50 »
In the case of universal utopia, where the goal is to reduce the risk of existential threat down to zero, we will focus more on finding minima of the risk function and make progress using gradient descent.
A method to prevent being stuck in a local minima is using a low pass filter to smooth out the reward/utility function prior to applying gradient descent. It helps overcoming local barriers, but requires some sort of memory storage to keep the filtered contour. It's essentially building a simplified model of reality, just like virtual universe that I discuss in another thread.
« Last Edit: 17/11/2020 22:15:45 by hamdani yusuf »
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #168 on: 02/11/2020 22:04:11 »
Descartes has pointed out that the only self evident information a conscious agent can get is its own existence. Any other information requires corroborating evidences to support it. So in the end, the reliability of an information will be measured/valued by its ability to help preserving conscious agents.
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #169 on: 04/11/2020 02:13:54 »
In information theory, one bit of information reduces uncertainty by half. Like in binary numbers, not every bit has the same significance. Information about universal terminal goal are among the highest significant bits. They will have big impacts to the course of advancement of conscious systems.
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #170 on: 04/11/2020 15:22:47 »
The most important part of universal utopia is connected to the mind and not to outer reality. For example, when two people meet and fall in love, their little world becomes closer to utopia. Their perceptions of the outer world change, over night, without the outer world doing anything.

This affect has to do with the filters of consciousness changing. To the lover, the beloved is the most beautiful person, even if they are not so. There is no need to change the outer world with plastic surgery if the inner world has changed. Utopian places like heaven are based on the love filter for perception.

When the brain creates memory, emotional tags are added to the sensory content, when it is written to the cerebral matter. Our memory has both content and emotional valance tags. For example, when we "feel" hungry at lunch, memories of food will appear in the imagination. Alternately, if we see a food item we like on the menu, the feeling of hunger will often appear, since these two were connected, during memory writing processes. This schema is useful to the animal, since they can react to the feelings created by the situation; memory induction, without having to think in terms of only sensory data. This speeds up their reaction time.

Although sensory data, from our five senses, has infinite variation and combinations, there are only a limited number of feeling tags used by the brain. Ss such, the feeling tags tend to be recycled and used on many memories with emotional similarity. For example, all the food we like, has the same l basic "like", tag.

The advantage of this is the memory is stored in holographic layers, throughout the brain,  based on the tagging valance. When one falls in love, for example, love; which is a  limbic system induction, helps consciousness focus on that one memory layer. This layer then defines how we will perceive reality; rose colored glasses. By being distributed over the brain, we still have full control over the brain's full resources.

Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different  memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.

Does anyone remember the Russian collusion delusion scam? That scam caused many brains to be induced into memory  layers populated and driven by hate and fear. This layer or the dark colored glasses is why associations between Hitler, Nuclear war and Trump all seem attached. These memories were all tagged the same way by natural and induced means. This made utopia more difficult for most, but seemed to benefit some. 

The left is more about feeling, so the negative layer induction was reacted to like an animal, with feeling first, often without thinking; quick assessment. This was all by design. Thinking allows one to not reinforce the activated neural chemically induced layer, so it can fade or be changed. Even the rational become irrational when the layers are switched on. Leaning how this works is important to universal utopia.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #171 on: 04/11/2020 18:25:41 »
Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
The advantage of this is the memory is stored in holographic layers
Not really.
Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
Does anyone remember the Russian collusion delusion scam?
No
I remember that the evidence showed collusion with Russia.
If memory serves, 5 people were found guilty as a result of the investigation.

Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
This layer or the dark colored glasses is why associations between Hitler, Nuclear war and Trump all seem attached.
No
The link between Trump and Hitler is simple; racism.
There are, of course, other parallels- like voter intimidation.

Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
The left is more about feeling,
No, it's not.
Most scientists, for example, are Left wing.
The Right is full of nutters who believe things like homeopathy- because "it feels right".
It's the left who have a grasp of logic.
The Right just lie a lot.
Hint; they didn't build a wall and Mexico didn't pay for it.


Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
This was all by design.
Whose?


Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
Even the rational become irrational when the layers are switched on
Is that why you think that a 30% drop in the economy is the best it has done, or do you have some other reason to be irrational?
Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
Leaning how this works is important to universal utopia.
You have much to learn. The first thing you need to learn is that listening to fox news makes you less well informed.
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #172 on: 06/11/2020 14:03:44 »
Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different  memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.
Is it the terminal goal of politics? Why achieving that goal is preferred over not achieving it?

If it's just an instrumental goal, what is its terminal goal? Are there alternatives of instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goal?
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #173 on: 17/11/2020 22:12:36 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 06/11/2020 14:03:44
Quote from: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different  memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.
Is it the terminal goal of politics? Why achieving that goal is preferred over not achieving it?

If it's just an instrumental goal, what is its terminal goal? Are there alternatives of instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goal?
For now I'll assume that your silence means that you have realized that what you wrote was just a statistical fluke based on your personal experience, not the fundamental truth. Feel free to refute my assumption.
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #174 on: 23/11/2020 22:22:58 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 01/11/2020 22:22:50
In the case of universal utopia, where the goal is to reduce the risk of existential threat down to zero, we will focus more on finding minima of the risk function and make progress using gradient descent.
A method to prevent being stuck in a local minima is using a low pass filter to smooth out the reward/utility function prior to applying gradient descent. It helps overcoming local barriers, but requires some sort of memory storage to keep the filtered contour. It's essentially building a simplified model of reality, just like virtual universe that I discuss in another thread.
Becoming modern humans is one of the changes done by our ancestors to enable us identify terminal goals. That is preceded by subsequent genetic changes shaped by evolutionary process, such as merging of chromosome #2, becoming primates, mammals, chordates, multicellular organisms, eukaryotes, respectively in reverse order.
There were also behavioral changes such as establishing effective communication and cooperation, using tools,  being bipedal, coming out of water, reproduce sexually, and so on.
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #175 on: 24/11/2020 10:23:32 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 01/11/2020 10:24:09
The changes can be classified into two basic types: random and directed changes, which can be divided further into positive and negative changes. In simple models of optimization, we use gradient descent to find local minima or gradient ascent for local maxima.
But to find global minimum/maximum (extrema), an algorithm needs the ability to get free from being stuck at local extrema. It means the necessity to violate the rules of gradient descend/ascend, at least temporarily to find a higher local maximum or lower local minimum.

Random changes can be seen as high risk-high gain strategy, while directed changes can be seen as a more conservative and safer option. But if at some moment we are stuck at a local minimum and any small steps in every direction give out worst result than current situation, the random changes can be a better alternative solution.


Here is the example in genetic changes.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03061-x
How evolution builds genes from scratch
Quote
In the depths of winter, water temperatures in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean can sink below zero. That’s cold enough to freeze many fish, but the conditions don’t trouble the cod. A protein in its blood and tissues binds to tiny ice crystals and stops them from growing.

Where codfish got this talent was a puzzle that evolutionary biologist Helle Tessand Baalsrud wanted to solve. She and her team at the University of Oslo searched the genomes of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and several of its closest relatives, thinking they would track down the cousins of the antifreeze gene. None showed up. Baalsrud, who at the time was a new parent, worried that her lack of sleep was causing her to miss something obvious.

But then she stumbled on studies suggesting that genes do not always evolve from existing ones, as biologists long supposed. Instead, some are fashioned from desolate stretches of the genome that do not code for any functional molecules. When she looked back at the fish genomes, she saw hints this might be the case: the antifreeze protein — essential to the cod’s survival — had seemingly been built from scratch1. By that point, another researcher had reached a similar conclusion.

Quote
Although de novo genes remain enigmatic, their existence makes one thing clear: evolution can readily make something from nothing. “One of the beauties of working with de novo genes,” says Casola, “is that it shows how dynamic genomes are.”
« Last Edit: 25/11/2020 09:40:35 by hamdani yusuf »
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Offline hamdani yusuf (OP)

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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #176 on: 28/11/2020 23:56:47 »
For simple organisms, life depends much on their environmental conditions, which are out of their control. Each individual has high risk of death as time passes by.
To overcome the risk, they need to reproduce at high rate, so some of their copies might be lucky enough and survive. But that strategy needs a lot of resources, thus not an efficient strategy.
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #177 on: 30/11/2020 09:05:36 »
In another thread, I've mentioned that creating backup is just one of many strategies to preserve information. In the case of living organisms, it's the genetic code.
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 16/11/2018 23:48:22
Finally we get to the last question: how. There are some basic strategies to preserve information which I borrow from IT business:
Choosing robust media.
Creating multilayer protection.
Creating backups.
Create diversity to avoid common mode failures.

Organisms must allocate finite resources to those strategies optimally in order to maximize their chance of survival in ever changing environment. It brings in trade off situation which needs to be solved through trial and error, unless they have the proper information. This is where the need for building a virtual universe comes in. The virtualization makes the process of trial and error much more efficient and much faster.
It starts with very simple sensing capabilities of their environment, such as light, temperature, or certain types of chemicals, so they can react to avoid danger or to eat food. Generally, the more complex the situation to handle, the deeper the layer of neural network is required. There are also some minimum number of nodes in each layer to be useful. It creates further problem for tuning the hyperparameters. In the end, the optimum results are decided by evolutionary process through natural selection.
« Last Edit: 02/12/2020 04:36:25 by hamdani yusuf »
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #178 on: 02/12/2020 01:21:04 »
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
« Last Edit: 02/12/2020 04:30:14 by hamdani yusuf »
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Re: Universal Utopia?
« Reply #179 on: 02/12/2020 12:21:02 »
Quote from: hamdani yusuf on 02/12/2020 01:21:04
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
If humanity can achieve level 2 civilization in Kardashev scale, it's very likely we will find alien lifeform. If they are less intelligent than us, someone will ask why don't we just kill them all to gain access to their resources? On the other hand, if they turn out to be more intelligent than us, some of them will ask the same question about us.
The risk from clash of civilization can be prevented by considering some reasonings from both sides as follow:
- Embracing diversity is one of proven methods to mitigate destruction of information, closing the weakness of identical backups which are prone to common mode failures.
- The other civilizations can potentially offer new knowledge and experience which can be useful to handle unexpected problems in the future.
- If both civilizations have similar level of intelligence, there is a risk of mutual total destruction. It would get us closer to the worst case scenario, which we must avoid at all cost.
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