[alancalverd]

Consider also the potential for the future, like wireless charging in Tesla's Cyber cab. You can't use it with gasoline or hydrogen.

You don't need to since it only takes a couple of minutes to fill up from a 40 - 100 MW pump.

[paul cotter]

A couple of days ago in the southern counties of Ireland where the weather had been particularly severe there were reports of commuters stuck in their cars for up to four hours. I think this will have changed minds on the practicality of electric cars as keeping the heating on will see one's range anxiety grow with each passing minute.

[alancalverd]

Imagine someone in early 20th century complained about the inadequacy of gas stations with his new car, so he wanted to go back with horse cart.

The first practical passenger cars were electric but it quickly transpired that buying a gallon of gasoline (then a waste product of the oil industry) from a pharmacy was a lot quicker and easier than charging a battery from the nonexistent mains supply. And the same applies today.

The huge societal advantages of ICE vehicles (and airplanes, for that matter) is their minimal infrastructure requirements compared with electric cars (or trains).

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The huge societal advantages of ICE vehicles (and airplanes, for that matter) is their minimal infrastructure requirements compared with electric cars (or trains).

Let's see what the market will decide. In free market economy, people vote with their money.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Where do they park?

In the street. Or hadn't you noticed?

That's where lamp post charging stations can help.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The first practical passenger cars were electric but it quickly transpired that buying a gallon of gasoline (then a waste product of the oil industry) from a pharmacy was a lot quicker and easier than charging a battery from the nonexistent mains supply. And the same applies today.

Mains supply is much more abundant nowadays. And the number keeps growing.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Consider also the potential for the future, like wireless charging in Tesla's Cyber cab. You can't use it with gasoline or hydrogen.

You don't need to since it only takes a couple of minutes to fill up from a 40 - 100 MW pump.

You didn't count the cost of exploration, refinery, distribution and safety precautions of the gasoline.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Toyota calls for emissions delay - "customers will have to pay $20,000 more!"

[alancalverd]

You didn't count the cost of exploration, refinery, distribution and safety precautions of the gasoline.

Of course I count the cost - I'm paying for it! Fuel suppliers are not public charities. And I'm even paying a tax levy to subsidise electric cars!

[alancalverd]

Let's see what the market will decide. In free market economy, people vote with their money.

There is no free market, at least in the UK. Home-charged BEVs are subsidised by everyone else, as are the builders of wind and solar farms. And HM Government want to ban the sale of new ICE cars, though the deadline recedes each year.

Interesting day in Britain today. Average temperature below zero, no wind, sun barely above the horizon. 10% of UK electricity production was from renewables. Note that electricity only accounts for about 30% of total UK energy consumption, so practically everything that moves or stays warm was powered by fossil fuel. I drove about 300 miles to work and back, and didn't see a single electric car on the road!

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

I drove about 300 miles to work and back, and didn't see a single electric car on the road!

Cost of renewable energy is getting cheaper, while fossil fuel is getting more expensive. Subsidies only accelerate the progress and make the transition happens sooner, and minimize side effects of combustion engines to people's health and the environment.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Interesting day in Britain today. Average temperature below zero, no wind, sun barely above the horizon. 10% of UK electricity production was from renewables. Note that electricity only accounts for about 30% of total UK energy consumption, so practically everything that moves or stays warm was powered by fossil fuel. I drove about 300 miles to work and back, and didn't see a single electric car on the road!

Have you compared the situation with Norway?

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

testing standards like Real Driving Emissions (RDE) and Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Two different sets of rules. VW met the US current test standard at the time of test.

But the cars didn't meet the standard when they were driven on the road.

For those who haven't understood the situation, basically there are two settings of a diesel engine performance. It can be optimized for fuel efficiency by operating at higher temperature and pressure in its combustion chamber. But it will produce more NOx, which is a pollutant. The opposite side is to minimize pollution, by reducing the temperature and pressure in combustion chamber, so nitrogen from the air doesn't react with oxygen.
The buyers mainly concerned about economic aspects of operating it, and less concerned about pollution. On the other hand, the regulatory bodies mainly concerned about pollution, which can have severe costs for the society as a whole.
What VW did is to use the default setting to optimize fuel efficiency while ignoring pollution limits. It only switch to cleaner setting when the software installed detects that it's being tested in a lab.
In other words, it aligned with the goal of the buyers most of the time, while only aligned with the goal of regulators in lab testing situation. This is clearly a case of alignment faking.

Ther were several options for VW before making that decision.
1. Comply with regulations by reducing temperature and pressure. It will make the engine has less efficient in fuel consumption, and less competitive in the market, compared to other types of engine. They will lose some market share.
2. Ignore the regulations altogether. They won't be allowed to sell the cars in some highly regulated regions, but they might still be able to sell elsewhere. In this case they will also lose some market share.
3. Use engineering solutions to reduce pollutants while keeping fuel efficiency, e.g. by adding catalysts. It turned out to be an available option, although it's quite expensive, and the additional cost would have to be charged to the buyers. Their products will be less competitive in initial cost, and they'll lose some market share to the competing alternatives.
4. Decided that manufacturing and selling their products was no longer a sustainable business model. They can then use their resources to develop some other business models.

[alancalverd]

Have you compared the situation with Norway?

No comparison is relevant. Norway has 5 million people and 45 GW installed hydroelectric capacity to power almost everything. The UK is mostly flat and contains 70,000,000 people in about the same area.

[paul cotter]

If you decrease the efficiency of a diesel engine with the criterion of reduced nox then the downside is increased co2 and particulates in the exhaust and increased fuel consumption, for a given amount of work. I don't know which is worse, nox or these sooty nanoparticulates which seem to be implicated in a lot of health problems. You just can't win

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

If you decrease the efficiency of a diesel engine with the criterion of reduced nox then the downside is increased co2 and particulates in the exhaust and increased fuel consumption, for a given amount of work. I don't know which is worse, nox or these sooty nanoparticulates which seem to be implicated in a lot of health problems. You just can't win

I think the particulate is increased by higher operating temperature and pressure. Although increase in fuel efficiency somewhat compensated it.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

They can then use their resources to develop some other business models.

This has been done by Nokia and Ericsson in cell phone manufacturing business. They could have saved some money if they could predict the outcome sooner. That's where having an accurate model of the market as part of the universe can help in making decisions.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Have you compared the situation with Norway?

No comparison is relevant. Norway has 5 million people and 45 GW installed hydroelectric capacity to power almost everything. The UK is mostly flat and contains 70,000,000 people in about the same area.

Our decisions in the past contributes to the hardships that we have to face now. Likewise, our decisions today will contribute to the hardships that we will have to face in the future.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

safety, charging duration and lifetime are improving. They will drive ICE vehicles economically uncompetitive.

You need to increase the charge rate and the grid maximum current capacity by a factor of 1000 to make battery cars a sensible replacement for ICE. Double the figures for trucks.

Hydrogen already does the job better.

It seems we chose the different sources of news regarding economics of energy.

EV Curve Futurist reveals date that internal combusion will DIE in China

[alancalverd]

Our decisions in the past contributes to the hardships that we have to face now. Likewise, our decisions today will contribute to the hardships that we will have to face in the future.

I don't think the decision to make Norway mountainous was a human one. However I agree that the decision to overpopulate the UK was.