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  1. Naked Science Forum
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  4. COVID-19
  5. How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
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How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?

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Offline chris

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #20 on: 24/02/2020 22:13:44 »
Current estimate of the mortality rate is 0.4% vs 0.1% for the flu; current reproduction rate is 2-3 vs 1.5 for the flu. So twice as spreadable and twice as lethal.
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Offline evan_au

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #21 on: 25/02/2020 09:27:22 »
Apparently the recent intensive monitoring of people in quarantine showed that some people who are asymptomatic are shedding just as many virus particles as people who have symptoms.

That increases the chance that it could spread unobserved - asymptomatic people will not be detected by temperature checks at the airport.
Read the transcript, or listen (10 minutes):
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus-pandemic-status-edges-closer/11994674
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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #22 on: 25/02/2020 13:40:32 »
Quote from: chris on 24/02/2020 22:13:44
Current estimate of the mortality rate is 0.4% vs 0.1% for the flu; current reproduction rate is 2-3 vs 1.5 for the flu. So twice as spreadable and twice as lethal.
For a doctor that is a very tardy statement.  What sort of flu, swine, spanish or 2018 variety that was quite viralent also.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #23 on: 25/02/2020 19:19:39 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 25/02/2020 13:40:32
For a doctor that is a very tardy statement. 
Seemed pretty timely to me.

Quote from: Petrochemicals on 25/02/2020 13:40:32
What sort of flu, swine, spanish or 2018 variety that was quite viralent also.
Presumably the flu that just gets referred to as "the flu" rather than, "Spanish flu" or "Swine flu".
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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #24 on: 27/02/2020 19:41:58 »
A new victim profile aired on the TV is that this virus is almost exclusively killing older men (60+) who have compromised respiratory systems, not the young, not the middle aged, not the female. Thought is that bad lifestyles, air pollution and industrial disease are main vunerabilities.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #25 on: 27/02/2020 20:08:29 »
Most diseases have a higher death toll in older people, but that's still going to be a problem if it takes hold.
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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #26 on: 27/02/2020 21:30:53 »
I gather Pence is in charge of the response to the virus.
So I guess we will find out plenty about the mortality rate etc.
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Offline costarican

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #27 on: 01/03/2020 19:17:46 »
The latest numbers: The novel coronavirus has killed more than 2,900 people worldwide, the vast majority in mainland China.
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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #28 on: 01/03/2020 19:18:39 »
Today the first US death was reported
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Offline evan_au

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #29 on: 10/03/2020 08:49:47 »
A new daily podcast about the latest on the coronavirus, from ABC radio (Australia): Coronacast, around 10 minutes per episode.
- One of the hosts qualified as a medical doctor

I see that there is another podcast that picked the same name at the same time; the ABC one has an orange background.
See: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/
or search for it on your podcast app...
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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: How dangerous is the Wuhan City 2019-nCoV coronavirus?
« Reply #30 on: 17/06/2020 11:03:38 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 26/01/2020 09:26:16
Quote from: evan_au on 25/01/2020 22:06:10
Quote from: chris, on RNZ
(paraphrased)...the cytokine storm in the 1918 flu pandemic that killed many young, healthy adults...
Presumably, if there were a modern viral outbreak that caused a similar "cytokine storm", today we would be able to damp down the overactive immune response with a dose of steroids (or other immune suppressants)?
- Would this suppress the severe immune response, long enough for a reduced immune response to start attacking the virus (instead of the host)?

Steroids are relatively cheap, fairly well available and fairly stable in pill form.
- Would it make sense to have a national emergency stock of steroids, in case another similar pandemic occurs?
- Otherwise, the police could just raid the local gym!
That does not seem wise to me, corona virus and a handicapped immune system seem to equal seriousness, just like flu.
I stand corrected

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/dexamethasone-coronavirus-drug-trial-oxford-steroid-treatment-covid-19-a9568641.html
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