[acsinuk]

So what will happen next in  UK. We have to get back to work to save the economy. But to protect the people that must travel to work the government has advised the wearing of masks and maintain social distancing.  But we know that rush hour trains are always crowded so employers should stagger working hours or better still introduce shift work. Early shift 7am to 2pm [no lunch break] and 1pm to 8pm [ no lunch break].  For employees that adopt this timetable and produce off-peak travelling expense receipts a reduction in income tax can be claimable.  This should half the rush hour traffic on trains if implemented by city stores, shops.

[Expectant_Philosopher]

This topic is for tracking and understanding the COVID-19 corona virus statistics.
Here are the best statistics sources I have found:-
[1] https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports
[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/                           (daily updated global statistics: WHO based)
[3] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus                                    (stresses on statistical interpretation: US based)
[4] http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/                                         (lag time for each country graphs: WHO based)
[5] http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/news/TrackingtheEpidemic.htm     (statistics of every day in China: [overloading])

Have you tried: coronavirus.1point3acres.com

It is written by Chinese-Americans and their stats are based on published news articles.

[acsinuk]

The stats show UK as over the peak by a very long way.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/    Even with Leicester still locked down we have survived the worst.  In some countries probably deaths in care homes and of the over 70's are recorded as naturally of old age as any slight infection would have been fatal anyway.
We need to be positive about the future and push our economy forward for the common good of everyone particularly our children.  Next winter a new flu virus will be discovered and there is obviously no cure for it available.  So government should  advise the NHS that we understand they don't have a vaccine but they should just do their best to contain it and not panic.

[Edwina Lee (OP)]

The stats show UK as over the peak by a very long way.  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/    Even with Leicester still locked down we have survived the worst.  In some countries probably deaths in care homes and of the over 70's are recorded as naturally of old age as any slight infection would have been fatal anyway.
We need to be positive about the future and push our economy forward for the common good of everyone particularly our children.  Next winter a new flu virus will be discovered and there is obviously no cure for it available.  So government should  advise the NHS that we understand they don't have a vaccine but they should just do their best to contain it and not panic.

You still do not understand how serious covid-19 infection is. A serious infection can happen to young healthy people and the  rate of transmission is rapid without the use of face masks in dangerous situations. Therefore, with the lack of credible leadership in the US & UK, they still haven't managed a safe gradual re-opening.  The US leadership is just hopeless!

[alancalverd]

The stats show UK as over the peak

Correction: over a peak. There is nothing in the aetiology of COVID infection to prevent it all blowing up again or just hanging around for ever.

I saw no panic in the NHS, only on the faces of ignorant, incompetent and arrogant politicians who have no idea what to do when President Cummings is too busy appointing fascists to the Cabinet Office to wave his magic willy.

Apropos the original question, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales  carries all the data you need. Best to ignore the "COVID" lines which are simply best guesses, but as the tables are Excel files you can subtract the 5-year average from each weekly total to get the weekly excess deaths. This shows around 50,000 deaths this year to date that are almost certainly attributable to government inaction and deliberate human sacrifices  to The Economy. There will be more, as currently being demonstrated in Texas and Florida.

As with all other sacrifices to mythical gods, it was a complete waste of lives, time and money.

[acsinuk]

All covid19 restrictions should now be lifted, as we are definitely over the peak and must not live our lives in fear.  The government should advise everyone to use their common sense and avoid close contact with strangers and wear a mask if they feel uncomfortable.   When the next flu virus hits us we must not allow Health and Safety experts to panic our government, just maintain a stiff upper lip  and say to NHS staff; God will decide who lives and who dies, just  do your best, and thank you all so very much.

[alancalverd]

There is no god. There is a highly infective virus with 5 - 6% fatality and only one vector in the UK - homo "sapiens".

The NHS surely has better things to do than to watch the inevitable deaths and treat the longterm morbidities of those avoidably infected by others.

The time to lift internal restrictions is when we have no new infections for 2 weeks and effective quarantine for incomers. Viruses do not surrender - they have to be eliminated.

Strong positive action prevented Ebola from becoming endemic in the UK. COVID is a bit more subtle in its approach but can be eliminated if taken seriously.

[acsinuk]

The stats show that in UK only 1 in 10,000 healthy people of under retirement age will die of Covid 19  see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  for details. 
Governments should do what is for the common good and not be panicked by H&S expert predictions of Dooms Day for the NHS or indeed fear of the second coming.

[Bored chemist]

The stats show that in UK only 1 in 10,000 healthy people of under retirement age will die of Covid 19  see

That would be the correct statistic to use for decision making if everybody in the UK was healthy and  below retirement age. (Though nearly 10,000 dead people would still be an issue).

However there are lots of sick and retired people in the UK and, odd as you may find it, the government has to look after their interests too.
Or are you advocating a "Logan's run" scenario?

[Bored chemist]

All covid19 restrictions should now be lifted, as we are definitely over the FIRST peak

Fixed it for you.

[alancalverd]

Fortunately this has nothing to do with "H&S experts" but very simple science. The vector for COVID is other people. There is no evidence of immunity from first infection. There is demonstrable 20% morbidity requiring hospitalisation, and around 5% excess mortality has been found where there is comprehensive postmortem testing.

So if everyone mingles with everyone else, we will end up with 5% fewer people, massively overloaded hospitals (NHS acute planning and funding is for about 1 - 2%, not 10 - 20%, of the population to be in hospital at any time) and a workforce 30% depleted by ongoing symptoms (principally the sequelae of cerebral hypoxia, and limited lung capacity) following "recovery".

Never mind the damage done to the lives and hopes of those of us who have worked for our long and healthy retirement, or our families and friends. Humans are of no consequence to government*. But the longterm damage to the Holy Economy and Blessed Bank Profits will be cataclysmic, and you really don't want to upset Mr Cummings by letting that happen, do you?   

COVID, like Ebola, is entirely preventable and eradicable in the UK, but it would require positive government action based on science, not politics or short-term economics, to achieve this.

Meanwhile my shares in diagnostic and treatment technologies are rocketing, so please sit next to strangers and breathe deeply. Next week, I'm looking at designs for a continuous-flow crematorium.

 
*"One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic."  Josef Stalin.

[acsinuk]

Russia has a vaccine and we have vaccines which all need to be tested and verified as effective and not causing side effect  problems.    This pandemic is an emergency particularly for the over 80's, right..
 Now if you are over 80 and get a positive covid19 response or have been near to an infected person; then insist on being given one of the experimental vaccines immediately, as this will :-   
 1] give you an extra chance of surviving and
2] build up a guinea pig database which could result in early release of the vaccine without going through thousands of  volunteers.

[Bored chemist]

Russia has a vaccine and we have vaccines which all need to be tested and verified as effective and not causing side effect  problems.    This pandemic is an emergency particularly for the over 80's, right..
 Now if you are over 80 and get a positive covid19 response or have been near to an infected person; then insist on being given one of the experimental vaccines immediately, as this will :-   
 1] give you an extra chance of surviving and
2] build up a guinea pig database which could result in early release of the vaccine without going through thousands of  volunteers.

You may be startled to discover that policies on vaccine testing have been in place for decades and are unlikely to be changed on the advice of someone whose grasp of the situation is so poor that they say things like this.

All covid19 restrictions should now be lifted, as we are definitely over the peak

The parachute has slowed down my fall to just a few m/s, so I should now take it off.

[alancalverd]

It could be argued that the pandemic is more of a problem for younger people. Aged 80+, your healthy life expectancy is on a knife edge and most of us will be generally less mobile, vigorous and productive than we were at 40. COVID loads the dice a bit, but is avoidable unless you are already terminally dependent on others.

Those who contract COVID in their middle years, however, tend to suffer a sudden and sharp decline in quality of life, life expectancy, productivity and career prospects. And the longterm damage can be significant.

Aged 75, semi retired and able to work from home, I've found the last 6 months relaxing and profitable. Slightly annoyed to have the holiday of a lifetime cancelled, but for the last 25 years every holiday was the holiday of a lifetime, so no great loss, and if I pop my clogs tomorrow I won't have many complaints.

Compare this with a kid who has just spent 6 months studying in chaos at home and then had his entire career wrecked by an incompetent A level grading system. Or a worker who has been furloughed for the last umpteen months and is now unemployed and unemployable. Or a businessman with debts to pay and no workers to man his depreciating machinery. You don't even need to get COVID to suffer from it for the rest of your life.   

The worldwide pandemic may never be over, but the UK epidemic could have been avoided by swift action. It still could be, though I gather that Imperial College now think the number of carriers has been underestimated by a possible factor of 10.

Suppose a trial vaccine produces a severe but temporary inflammatory response. If we give it to 80-year-olds it will probably kill half of them, and several of the others will die from other causes in the next 6 months, so it won't be licensed: dangerous and not proven effective. But if you had given it to teenagers you would have found 100% survival and conferred lifetime immunity on the next generation! That's why we always start "preventive" trials with healthy 20 - 40 year-old males. That's quite different form "curative" trials where you start with a small but diverse group for acute toxicity and dose tolerance, and include actual patients  as early as possible.

[acsinuk]

Thanks Alan,  I am also over 75 and at risk but would certainly like to help youngsters and the economy normalise.
If an over 80 were to be informed tomorrow that they have been SATNAVed as being near to a virus carrier and asked to self isolate then they should demand the option to guinea pig a vaccine of their choice and sign a written guarantee not to sue anyone if complications arise or even death.  If that request for a vaccine were refused and they died;  then they should instruct their will executor to sue whoever refused to supply the vaccine.  The Russians have probably pirated the best one.

[Bored chemist]

Thanks Alan,  I am also over 75 and at risk but would certainly like to help youngsters and the economy normalise.
If an over 80 were to be informed tomorrow that they have been SATNAVed as being near to a virus carrier and asked to self isolate then they should demand the option to guinea pig a vaccine of their choice and sign a written guarantee not to sue anyone if complications arise or even death.  If that request for a vaccine were refused and they died;  then they should instruct their will executor to sue whoever refused to supply the vaccine.  The Russians have probably pirated the best one.

YOu seem to have missed an important aspect of (most) vaccines.
Your plan needs a time machine.
When the system realises that you have been in contact with a person with the virus, it needs to go back in time a week or two so that you can get the vaccination  early enough that you have established immunity when you come into contact.

Without the time-travel bit, you probably aren't helping them much.
Of course, if you can do the time travel, you... oh never mind- there are plenty of sci fi stories about paradoxes.

[alancalverd]

And of course if you have been infected, you will either die or, more probably, survive with permanent damage to your body, brain, career, or all of the above, but better immunity than any vaccine can offer you.

The important and utterly damning statistics are about the lasting physical, mental and economic damage to the survivors and the yet-to-be-infected, all of which could have been prevented by swift and positive government action.

[Edwina Lee (OP)]

I noticed through www.worldometers.info that in the USA, the daily infection cases, & daily death cases have been vastly revised down for the last few days.  hmmmmm

[Bored chemist]

I noticed through www.worldometers.info that in the USA, the daily infection cases, & daily death cases have been vastly revised down for the last few days.  hmmmmm

The UK govt recently did the same- with no justification.
They decided that anyone who took longer than 28 days to die didn't die of covid.

[Petrochemicals]

Do you know of any hospitalisation figures, given that there are places going into lockdown because of increaced positive tests, this is whilst testing is increaced and the government are urging anyone with a cough to get tested, i wonder whether ithis lockdown is an over reaction.

Also do you have any figures of flu jab recipients and hospitalisations?