[Petrochemicals]

Sweden is twice the size of the UK, with one sixth of the population, and, oddly, whilst the tourist or business visitor won't notice the difference, has far less of a "native" hospitality industry: years of very steep alcohol taxes and BVAT on restaurant food,  and a history of extreme poverty until the 1940s, have produced a very different social tradition among people who seem in other respects to be very like Brits. So with one twelfth of the population density and no great urge (particularly among adults and the elderly) to cram into sweaty pubs and curry houses at every opportunity, most exhaled viruses died of boredom before reaching a new host. 

I suspect there was also less governmental encouragement to infect retirement homes, and a century of dreadful, numbing, conformist socialism meant that hospitals were well equipped with fresh and effective PPE. 

Income tax is among the highest in the world. You get what you pay for. 

Yet the usa has pulled a similar trick ? Cases down again, non of the exponential rise in deaths ! A century of anti socialist policies too. India is also doing well considering its population is twice the size of europes yet landmass smaller and pakistan has moved on.

[Bored chemist]

Yet the usa has pulled a similar trick ?

"similar"?
The highest death toll in the world.
Highest case rate in the developed world.

[alancalverd]

Excess deaths UK this year to date: about 1 per 1000 population - clear leaders in the western league, thanks to the brilliant professional management of the not-short-sighted President Cummings and Mr Punch.

Excess deaths USA to date: about 0.62 per 1000. Not bad, considering the ridiculously low US population density and, as in 1916 and 1942, they started late. I'm sure the USA will, as usual, catch up and surpass anything Europe can manage. Sacking the head of CDC was a good start, but Der Fuhrer needs more people to attend his Rallies.

Anyway, way better than backward, socialist Sweden that has only managed to kill 0.33 extra per thousand this year, despite having twice the population density of the USA. Rank amateurs.

[Petrochemicals]

Excess deaths USA to date: about 0.62 per 1000. Not bad, considering the ridiculously low US population density and, as in 1916 and 1942, they started late. I'm sure the USA will, as usual, catch up and surpass anything Europe can manage. Sacking the head of CDC was a good start, but Der Fuhrer needs more people to attend his Rallies.

Anyway, way better than backward, socialist Sweden that has only managed to kill 0.33 extra per thousand this year, despite having twice the population density of the USA. Rank amateurs.

This still ranks better than the 0.78 per 1000 the uk suffered in the 201718 flu season.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final

[evan_au]

Sweden does not have a herd immunity strategy

“And you’ll develop — you’ll develop herd — like a herd mentality,”

See: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/09/16/problem-with-trumps-herd-mentality-line-isnt-verbal-flub-its-mass-death/

[alancalverd]

This still ranks better than the 0.78 per 1000 the uk suffered in the 201718 flu season.

Only one third of which were due to respiratory disease. The rest were simply the expected consequence of austerity - the smack of firm government.

The really interesting spikes in the graph are a genuine millennium bug in 1999 - 2000 and week 30 (end of July) 2009 with a huge number of reported cases but very few deaths:
 

23 July – The Government launches the National Pandemic Flu Service across England, a website and phoneline allowing people who think they have the pandemic H1N1/09 virus to bypass the NHS to obtain antiviral drugs. The website crashes within hours of its launch due to the overwhelming demand.

Yes, it's deja vu all over again, according to Matt Hancock, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and other puppets.

But despite its handicaps of low population density, very little intercity commuting, and a sort-of-elected president, the US misgovernment is making a sterling effort to catch up with British idiocy.

You have misused "better than". The game is to kill as many people as possible by doing nothing that might be construed as actual government.  If you can bankrupt the Treasury and cause mass unemployment at the same time, you get extra points.

[Petrochemicals]

This still ranks better than the 0.78 per 1000 the uk suffered in the 201718 flu season.

Only one third of which were due to respiratory disease. The rest were simply the expected consequence of austerity - the smack of firm government.
 

I see you are crying havoc and letting slip the dogs of war in an effort  to attain credible deniability over the facts again. They where "Exess deaths" as yourself likes to brandish as a standard.

[alancalverd]

No, I'm simply quoting from the paper you cited. Always read the small print. Or in this case the bullets listed as "main points". 

Also note that their definition of excess winter deaths (admittedly buried in Paragraph 3 Things you need to know....") is Dec-Mar deaths minus the average of preceding Aug-Nov and the following Apr-Jly. This is quite different from (and much more spectacular than)  the current calculation of excess deaths being deaths Jan-Sept minus the average of Jan-Sept for the previous 5 years.   

Medical statistics are a minefield, and even a simple flag like "excess deaths" can lead you into a swamp!

[Petrochemicals]

Excess deaths USA to date: about 0.62 per 1000. Not bad, considering the ridiculously low US population density and, as in 1916 and 1942, they started late. I'm sure the USA will, as usual, catch up and surpass anything Europe can manage. Sacking the head of CDC was a good start, but Der Fuhrer needs more people to attend his Rallies.

Excess deaths USA to date: about 0.62 per 1000. Not bad, considering the ridiculously low US population density and, as in 1916 and 1942, they started late. I'm sure the USA will, as usual, catch up and surpass anything Europe can manage. Sacking the head of CDC was a good start, but Der Fuhrer needs more people to attend his Rallies.

Anyway, way better than backward, socialist Sweden that has only managed to kill 0.33 extra per thousand this year, despite having twice the population density of the USA. Rank amateurs.

This still ranks better than the 0.78 per 1000 the uk suffered in the 201718 flu season.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final

No, I'm simply quoting from the paper you cited. Always read the small print. Or in this case the bullets listed as "main points". 

Also note that their definition of excess winter deaths (admittedly buried in Paragraph 3 Things you need to know....") is Dec-Mar deaths minus the average of preceding Aug-Nov and the following Apr-Jly. This is quite different from (and much more spectacular than)  the current calculation of excess deaths being deaths Jan-Sept minus the average of Jan-Sept for the previous 5 years.   

Medical statistics are a minefield, and even a simple flag like "excess deaths" can lead you into a swamp!

Yes you are contradicting yourself, as when necessity dictates you to hide your face from the facts, for whatever reason drives you. Quite a clear and distinct deviation from ration logic and reason. Fin.

[acsinuk]

The problem is that we need to attain herd immunity as quickly as possible.   We need to be bold and positive about the future but accept that more people will get sick until a vaccine is available. 
Think ahead, what will happen if the virus mutates and we have Covid20 to content with??  Obviously the same experts will instantly panic again, with predictions of doom to the ministry of health!!
But surely the government will not be hood winked again by announcing damaging draconian lock-downs that totally wreck our lives and the economy. 
No, No;  just let the virus do its worst and if the new Nightingale ICU's ever get filled up; then is the time the government will need to intervene by possibly instructing NHS to only accept none retired patients.  To protect the young should be their first priority which is for the common good of our country for sure. . 

[Bored chemist]

Obviously the same experts will instantly panic again,

The experts didn't panic; they left that to politicians.
The politicians, in response, started to talk about herd immunity.

ut surely the government will not be hood winked again

How did you come to the conclusion that trying to stop people dying is "hoodwinking" the government?

draconian lock-downs that totally wreck our lives and the economy. 

Most people's lives, though gravely disrupted are not "wrecked".

And even those who really feel their lives are "wrecked" probably mainly think it's better than "ended".

[alancalverd]

We need to ...... accept that more people will get sick until a vaccine is available.

Why, when the disease is entirely preventable (don't expose yourself to it) and eradicable (isolate everyone who has been exposed, until they recover)?

We have no herd immunity to bubonic plague, ebola, smallpox, typhoid, or a thousand other nasties. But very few cases. The only problem with COVID is the asymptomatic and infective incubation period, whch requires a bit more caution but can be entirely resolved with a proper national quarantine.   

And for what it's worth, many of those who get symptoms but don't actually die seem to have their lives pretty thoroughly damaged if not wrecked by persistent symptoms. 

To protect the young should be their first priority which is for the common good of our country for sure.

Except that (a) the young seem relatively unharmed by COVID (b) the old have spent their lives paying for health care, so surely have the moral right to receive it (c) we can make useless babies in 9 months, but it takes more than 70 years to acquire a lifetime's wisdom and experience (d) "our country" is a patch of land that is indifferent to the fate of its inhabitants- it is "our people" that we should concern ourselves about.  Sadly, we have a government that puts "the economy" above all else.

And even if "the economy" is worth saving, it is driven by the old, not the young!

[Bored chemist]

Sadly, we have a government that puts "the economy" above all else.

Just for the record, they have screwed that up too.
It may be a trick to hide some of the economic damage from Brexit, or it might be the same lack of competence that drove Brexit in the first place.

[acsinuk]

There was a news item last night that indicated that Cambridge university were experimenting with a magnetic resonance imaging scanner which could identify which cells were being invaded or restricted by any new vaccine thus accelerating the testing process without using human guinea pigs. Seems like a real improvement on the cumbersome human testing with placebo's to me.

[alancalverd]

Interestingly, that 's how MRI began - as an in vitro examination of cancer cells.

[acsinuk]

My point is, we must prove a vaccine fast or thousands more people will die every day we wait..   
But, do not use young people as guinea pigs to prove the vaccine; use over 80's to test all new drugs on a voluntary basis.
Lots of retired medical people would only be too pleased to be able to help prove a vaccine works quickly for their grandchildren's sakes.
What is the point of you living for ever if your descendants die first??

[Bored chemist]

There are two problems and we don't know which one we need to solve.

We get 10,000 students and vaccinate half of them. In the vaccinated group, none dies from covid.
In the unvaccinated group none dies from covid- because , this disease seldom kills people in that age group.

We get 10,000 octogenarians and vaccinate half of  them.
Some die from various things, some die from covid.
If we are lucky, fewer of the vaccinated ones die from covid.
If we are very lucky, fewer of the vaccinated ones die in total.

Great; we have a vaccine that  we can then use more generally.

However, the only evidence that we have, does not actually support its use in any group other than octogenarians.

[alancalverd]

All drug tests must be "on a voluntary basis".

Problem is that simply vaccinating a bunch of elderly folk who are unlikely to contract a disease (because they don't roister around in crowds or use public transport in the rush hour) won't prove effectiveness, and if they are already past their sell-by date, it won't demonstrate longterm or even medium term safety.

Intentional "challenge" tests are just permissible but since the elderly are already known to  be at highest risk from COVID, you'd have a problem getting ethical approval for such a cohort. If you can identify a healthy cohort that is unlikely to die or suffer serious complications from a COVID infection, you might consider infecting them with known active virus to determine the effectiveness of your vaccine. This pretty much limits you to the usual suspects: 18 - 40 year-olds are known to develop symptoms, rarely die from them, and can give informed consent, so you could usefully track their viral load to determine effectiveness.

Against this, the real world incidence of COVID infection is significant and any vaccine will have to be produced and distributed in vast quantities at negligible cost (the economy having already been destroyed by politics and incompetence), so you may as well go straight for a large-scale epidemiological trial against placebo once you have established safety.

[alancalverd]

What is the point of you living for ever if your descendants die first??

It happens. My mother-in-law has buried two daughters, but has no intention of dying in the foreseeable future.

[acsinuk]

President Trump has taken a couple of new vaccines and if he is allowed to why aren't we?
We live in a state of fear, with leaders who just cruise along trying to please health and safety officials but not thinking about the common good of the rest and younger population.