[Bored chemist]

But level 3 lockdowns should only be considered if 90% of the Nightingale ward beds are occupied. Level 1 should be introduced when 25% of Nightingales are used and level 2 at 50% in my opinion. 

The point is lockdown is a failure, a totally failed protocol that is not working. 

It is physiologically damaging to us and economic suicide

Funny thing is... that's also the description of a plague.

[alancalverd]

As I remember I won

.... when I pointed out that 1.7% of the Swedish population was infected. I think we have the next Republican presidential candidate.

Incidentally the numbers have risen in the last 10 days such that the UK now has 2.2% infected, Sweden 2.1%.  Full marks for catching up so quickly, despite having a far lower population density.

[Petrochemicals]

Because their infection curves are ahead of the less-densely-populated countries. From the point of view of the virus there will be a correlation between population density and per capita infection,  and a lag of up to 8 weeks between infection and death. If all these variables are taken into account, the difference between countries can only be ascribed to the preventive measures taken and enforced.


My interpretation is that all these countries score fairly equally in terms of governmental incompetence apart from the USA  .

But America with its president is doing not as badly as many others(worse than Sweden I accept)?

As I remember I won

.... when I pointed out that 1.7% of the Swedish population was infected. I think we have the next Republican presidential candidate.

Incidentally the numbers have risen in the last 10 days such that the UK now has 2.2% infected, Sweden 2.1%.  Full marks for catching up so quickly, despite having a far lower population density.

Again coming back to the original point, why is Russia and france with a low population density doing so badly, yet Germany doing so well
?

[Bored chemist]

Taking the original comment, why is sweeden so much better than uk

It's much harder to spell, for a start.

As I remember I won and you said sorry to being a big girly man  and I granted you a magnanimous parden?

I somehow think I'd remember that.
Can you provide a link?

[alancalverd]

German statistics are intriguing. "Confirmed new cases" shows a consistent weekly cycle, peaking at the weekend, for the entire year, which makes one think that something odd is happening here. Despite whatever it is,  they have already reached 1.2% infection, and the envelope trend is pretty much the same shape as elsewhere in Europe. They are certainly being very strict about testing and quarantine for international air passengers.

I pointed out the myth of low population density in France back in reply # 234 above: it is 3 times the US value but only 2.2% infected compared with 3.6% in the USA. The daily stats are anomalous with a huge peak at the beginning of November, tailing off during the month when everyone else was increasing.

Russian envelope looks pretty much standard with a summer trough and smooth increase through the autumn, but with a total of only 1.5% of the population infected  you'd be hard put to say they are "doing badly". We look forward to welcoming more tourists visiting the world famous Salisbury Cathedral with its 123 meter spire. If you can believe anything that comes out of Russia, that is.

Fact is you can either do it properly (as in Australasia and the Far East) or choose to do nothing (some US states), with absolutely predictable results. Or you can faff about with partial measures and destroy everything over a longer period. 
 

[Petrochemicals]

I pointed out the myth of low population density in France back in reply # 234 above: it is 3 times the US value but only 2.2% infected compared with 3.6% in the USA. The daily stats are anomalous with a huge peak at the beginning of November, tailing off during the month when everyone else was increasing.

France 40000 cases a day, USA 150000 cases a day but population 4.66. times larger. Trump isn't doing too bad. As I pointed out in sweeden and the USA there are large swathes of the country with little population and transience, alaska itself accounts for  a large percentage of the landmass.

As said, we have been here before, I cited Canada as low population density but high corona, you admitted the error and said I was benevolent. France and the USA are not pushed for land. But then again maybe its trumps super evil sandwiching Canada between the contiguous states and alaska? The majority of the population in the US live in an area meaning they are pretty much like France in their transience. The uk however has a far more concentrated population around the major centres.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7052/united-states-population-density

The entire North American continent is more likened to europe, yet Europe has far more cases?

[Bored chemist]

"Confirmed new cases" shows a consistent weekly cycle, peaking at the weekend, for the entire year, which makes one think that something odd is happening here.

Cases are counted by people. Not all those people work at weekends.
So a pattern that varies over the week  isn't odd.
A peak at the weekend is.

[Bored chemist]

Trump isn't doing too bad.

How bad is "too bad"?

The USA has the highest rate of cases per million of any developed country apart from Belgium.
The USA has the largest number of cases in the world.
It is beating China and India in spite of their relative poverty and much higher populations.

By what objective measure is Trump doing well?

[alancalverd]

Once again I have to remind you of the difference in timebases and the variability of daily statistics. Because the first significant outbreak occurred at different times in different countries, you need to look at graphs that start on Day 0 being the first day that exceeded 100 cases. This means that the US data is always several days behind any European statistics. However let's look at what Worldometer has to say about the raw data for recent days.

The French curve reached a really anomalous daily peak of almost 87,000 cases on 7 November but was down to 12,450 on Friday 27th on a decreasing curve, when the USA registered 194,300. Divide by 4.66 and you end up with 3.7 times the French daily per capita total, on a steadily increasing curve with no anomalies.

Yes, Trump is doing brilliantly. He has established a firm base of disease with no short-term anomalies and is doing everything possible to encourage a total collapse of the public health system he has been steadily demolishing over the last 4 years. This is the man who boasted that he had organised the most secure and incorruptible presidential election ever, and is now complaining that it was corrupt and insecure. His concept of success is of course measured in bankruptcies, weaselling out of basic infantry training and defrauding the students of a bogus university. By Republican standards he will be judged a genius if he manages to start a futile war in the next 6 weeks, but having already killed over 250,000 Americans in less than a year with COVID he will probably make his mark in history by exceeding the 292,000  US WWII combat deaths in a quarter of the time and far less Federal expenditure.

[Bored chemist]

France 40000 cases a day, USA 150000 cases a day but population 4.66. times larger

Yes, but the real figures are different
164000 vs 12459
So roughly 3 times the per capita rate.

Did you not think someone would check?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

[Petrochemicals]

The French curve reached a really anomalous daily peak of almost 87,000 cases on 7 November but was down to 12,450 on Friday 27th on a decreasing curve, when the USA registered 194,300. Divide by 4.66 and you end up with 3.7 times the French daily per capita total, on a steadily increasing curve with no anomalies.

4.66* 50,000 (which was the peak over 7 days) is about 233,000 thus us's 200000 is beneath it, plus the US are levelling off. Spain also not as good. I will concede that the US is not quite as populated in the areas that are developed but I also hold to the point of trump not being any worse nor better. It is a response to a virus plan that the west all had and it shows. As I have said I wondered why trump did not make this point before during the election, I think perhaps he had had his fill of being the commander in Chief, and only narrowly ducked this bullet.

[Bored chemist]

The outcome depends on many factors- population density, the weather, demographics etc.
But what Trump is unquestionably responsible for is lying about the virus a lot.

The coronavirus would weaken “when we get into April, in the warmer weather—that has a very negative effect on that, and that type of a virus.”

The outbreak would be temporary: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle—it will disappear.”

If the economic shutdown continues, deaths by suicide “definitely would be in far greater numbers than the numbers that we’re talking about” for COVID-19 deaths.

"Coronavirus numbers are looking MUCH better, going down almost everywhere,” and cases are “coming way down.”

 The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away.”

The pandemic is “getting under control.”

 “99%” of COVID-19 cases are “totally harmless.”

“We now have the lowest Fatality (Mortality) Rate in the World.”

Mexico is partly to blame for COVID-19 surges in the Southwest.

Children are “virtually immune” to COVID-19.

The U.S. has “among the lowest case-fatality rates of any major country anywhere in the world.”

Trump “launched the largest national mobilization since World War II” against COVID-19, and America “developed, from scratch, the largest and most advanced testing system in the world.”

Trump celebrated a gain of 9 million jobs as “a record in the history of our country” and said that the United States had experienced “the smallest economic contraction of any major Western nation.”

America is “rounding the corner” and “rounding the final turn” of the pandemic.

The media is overblowing fears about the virus ahead of Election Day.

"What happens is, you get better” after being sick with COVID-19. “That's what happens: You get better.”

“You get better and then you’re immune.”

 A CDC study shows that “85 percent of the people wearing masks catch” the virus.

“The Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we’re doing,” Trump said.

The Obama White House’s response to the H1N1 pandemic was “a full scale disaster, with thousands dying, and nothing meaningful done to fix the testing problem, until now.”

The Trump White House “inherited” a “broken,” “bad,” and “obsolete” test for the coronavirus.

 The Obama administration left Trump “bare” and “empty” shelves of medical supplies in the national strategic stockpile.

Referring to criticism of his administration’s response, Trump tweeted: “Compare that to the Obama/Sleepy Joe disaster known as H1N1 Swine Flu. Poor marks ... didn’t have a clue!”

Trump later attacked “Joe Biden’s handling of the H1N1 Swine Flu.”

“Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. We—they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful” and “If somebody wants to be tested right now, they’ll be able to be tested.”

In an Oval Office address, Trump said that private-health-insurance companies had “agreed to waive all co-payments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments, and to prevent surprise medical billing.”

Google engineers are building a website to help Americans determine whether they need testing for the coronavirus and to direct them to their nearest testing site.

The United States has outpaced South Korea’s COVID-19 testing: “We’re going up proportionally very rapidly,” Trump said during a Fox News town hall.

America has “developed a testing capacity unmatched and unrivaled anywhere in the world, and it’s not even close.”

The United States has conducted more testing “than all other countries together!”

"Cases are going up in the U.S. because we are testing far more than any other country.”

“The Cases are up because TESTING is way up”

The United States would suspend “all travel from Europe, except the United Kingdom, for the next 30 days,” Trump announced in an Oval Office address.

" In the same address, Trump said the travel restrictions would “not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo but various other things as we get approval.”

All U.S. citizens arriving from Europe would be subject to medical screening, COVID-19 testing, and quarantine if necessary. “If an American is coming back, or anybody is coming back, we’re testing,” Trump said. “We have a tremendous testing setup where people coming in have to be tested … We’re not putting them on planes if it shows positive, but if they do come here, we’re quarantining.”

“We stopped all of Europe” with a travel ban. “We started with certain parts of Italy, and then all of Italy. Then we saw Spain. Then I said, ‘Stop Europe; let’s stop Europe. We have to stop them from coming here.’”

 “Everybody thought I was wrong” about implementing restrictions on travelers from China, and “most people felt they should not close it down—that we shouldn’t close down to China.”

The Trump administration’s travel restrictions on China were a “ban” that closed up the “entire” United States and “kept China out.”

“I’ve always known this is a real—this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic … I’ve always viewed it as very serious.”

This kind of pandemic “was something nobody thought could happen … Nobody would have ever thought a thing like this could have happened.”

Pharmaceutical companies are going “to have vaccines, I think, relatively soon.”

At a press briefing with his coronavirus task force, Trump said the FDA had approved the antimalarial drug chloroquine to treat COVID-19. “Normally the FDA would take a long time to approve something like that, and it’s—it was approved very, very quickly and it’s now approved by prescription,” he said

Trump was being “sarcastic” when he suggested in a briefing on April 23 that his medical experts should research the use of powerful light and injected disinfectants to treat COVID-19.

The coronavirus is “going to go away without a vaccine … and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”

Taking hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 is safe and effective. “I happen to be a believer in hydroxy. I used it. I had no problem. I happen to be a believer,” Trump said on one occasion. “It doesn’t hurt people,” he commented on another.

“One bad” study from the Department of Veterans Affairs that found no benefit among veterans who took hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 was run by “people that aren’t big Trump fans.” The study “was a Trump-enemy statement.”

Many frontline doctors and workers are taking hydroxychloroquine to prevent COVID-19.

 A coronavirus vaccine could be ready by Election Day.

 “We’re weeks away from a vaccine,” Trump said at the first debate.


 Trump twice said during a task-force briefing that he had invoked the Defense Production Act, a Korean War–era law that enables the federal government to order private industry to produce certain items and materials for national use. He also said the federal government was already using its authority under the law: “We have a lot of people working very hard to do ventilators and various other things.”

 Automobile companies that have volunteered to manufacture medical equipment, such as ventilators, are “making them right now.”

 Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York passed on an opportunity to purchase 16,000 ventilators at a low cost in 2015, Trump said during the Fox News town hall.

Trump also repeated a claim from the Gateway Pundit article that Cuomo’s office established “death panels” and “lotteries” as part of the state’s pandemic response.

 Trump “didn’t say” that governors do not need all the medical equipment they are requesting from the federal government. And he “didn’t say” that governors should be more appreciative of the help.

Hospitals are reporting an artificially inflated need for masks and equipment, items that might be “going out the back door,” Trump said on two separate days. He also said he was not talking about hoarding: “I think maybe it’s worse than hoarding.”

Asked about his past praise of China and its transparency, Trump said that he hadn’t “talk[ed] about China’s transparency.”

The WHO ignored “credible reports” of the coronavirus’s spread in Wuhan, the Chinese city that first reported the new virus, including those published in The Lancet medical journal in December.

Taiwanese officials had warned the WHO about human-to-human transmission of a new virus by December 31.

In mid-January, the WHO said the coronavirus could not be transmitted between humans.

The claim: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urged people to attend “parties” and a parade in San Francisco’s Chinatown to “show that this thing doesn’t exist.”

 Pelosi was “dancing in the streets of Chinatown, trying to say, ‘It’s okay to come to the United States. It’s fine. It’s wonderful. Come on in. Bring your infection with you,’” Trump said in May.

 Joe Biden wants an economic shutdown: “He wants to shut down this country, and I want to keep it open,” Trump claimed at the first presidential debate.

Biden wants to “delay the vaccine.”

Biden called Trump “xenophobic” after the president announced travel restrictions on China in January.

Protesters who gathered in a handful of states over the weekend to oppose social distancing were “doing social distancing” themselves and “were all six feet apart.”

Racial-justice protests and demonstrations fueled a surge in coronavirus cases.



You can find the citations and details here
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/trumps-lies-about-coronavirus/608647/

[Bored chemist]

Why would anyone defend the record of this liar?

[alancalverd]

You could ask 70,000,000 idiots and their electoral colleges.

[alancalverd]

the US are levelling off.

Not according to US government statistics. But why believe them when you can invent something different?

[Bored chemist]

You could ask 70,000,000 idiots and their electoral colleges.

Well, I'm asking the ones here. What odds are you giving for a reply?

[Petrochemicals]

the US are levelling off.

Not according to US government statistics. But why believe them when you can invent something different?

OK Alan you win, they are declining, but I was saying levelling off due to the fact that they probably are suffering a fluctuation as is seen, but over the 7 days they are not increasing any more. Trump done good.


Screenshot_20201129_021943.jpg (162 kB . 1606x1010 - viewed 487 times)

[evan_au]

Trump done good.

Trump has done nothing but sulk, tweet and golf since he lost the election (and claim responsibility for good things to which he contributed nothing).

[Petrochemicals]

Trump done good.

Trump has done nothing but sulk, tweet and golf since he lost the election (and claim responsibility for good things to which he contributed nothing).

Sorry Evan, I was relating it to the corona virus in the USA in comparison to the other Western countries despite the fact that they have not entered lockdown and panicked, rather than the US election  or his handicap. I will add that future mental health and serious disease deaths will also more likely to have a lower impact than Europe.

[acsinuk]

Trump was trying his best to keep the USA productive and moving.  The big lie was made by the World Health Organisation who declared that 5% of the worlds population would die of Covid 19 which caused a pandemic panic.. But look at the stats https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?ISCI=030202.
There it is only 63 million deaths in a world population of 7,830 million or less than 0.8% not even 1%.  Normal flu would be more damaging than that.  Forget about lockdowns and issue the vaccine immediately please.