[Bored chemist]

So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly.

Roughly 40 years of research has yet to come up with an HIV vaccine.

[alancalverd]

There's a significant difference between rapid decisive action and panic. Indeed they are polar opposites. An immediate lockdown of all nonessential interaction would have prevented COVID spreading much beyond the initial dozen or so cases in the UK. And it wouldn't have been all that damaging: the economy picks up pretty well after Christmas and New Year when primary and secondary industries effectively close down for 5 - 10 days.

So the trick for future epidemics (and there will be more - nature is indifferent to the fate of humanity)  is to determine in advance what activities and industries are essential and how those workers will be segregated into nonoverlapping shifts and squads (the lights don't go out at Christmas), then how a short, sharp lockdown will be policed and essential supplies rationed and distributed. We have had blackout (once) and petrol rationing (a few times) imposed  in my lifetime, immediately and at the stroke of a pen. Taxes change overnight and everyone adapts. I've participated in plans, preparations and exercises  for a 7 day transition to nuclear war, with a reasonable chance that they would have succeeded in keeping the immediate survivors alive. You get a lot more warning of an epidemic, and if you impose early lockdown and quarantine, it can be contained and eliminated. But it takes long-term commitment and planning, which is anathema to modern government.   

This thread began 6 weeks ago with 85 deaths per day. Had we had sensible plans and decisive action, that could have been the peak, but faffing and fumbling about has led to daily totals of hundreds of deaths and thousands of severe infections, massive economic impact, disruption of health and social services, and a probable death toll exceeding 40,000 this year plus maybe a million rendered unemployable. All completely unnecessary, as demonstrated in Korea.

6p - proper planning prevents piss-poor performance!

[acsinuk]

If there is a pandemic then the world population will reduce  but   https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/   look at the evidence.   We must await a vaccine and wear masks if we are nearer than 2 metres but not wreck our economies.  We need to avoid rush hour by working a shift system 7am to 2pm and 1pm till 8pm for shops,stores, warehouses and factories.  This will leave school children and city bureaucrats only to travel between 7.30am and 9am in mornings.

[Bored chemist]

If there is a pandemic then the world population will reduce 

No.
It's likely that it will just slow the increase.

[Bored chemist]

6p - proper planning prevents piss-poor performance!

Not voting for the man who hides in a fridge may also help

[Bored chemist]

I've participated in plans, preparations and exercises  for a 7 day transition to nuclear war,

And there are exercises in how to deal with a pandemic.
We knew how to do it.
But we had a government that refused to do what was needed.
They refused to stockpile things we would (****ing obviously) need like gowns, gloves and masks
As you say

But it takes long-term commitment and planning, which is anathema to modern government.   

[alancalverd]

I'm worried by the current sideshow of journalists grumbling about the relabelling of PPE that was outside its use-by date.

Dates on passive PPE are required by EU directives and corporate legal arsecovering, not necessarily science. It's the same with Volvic mineral water: the advertising blurb says it is 2000 years old, but the use-by label gives a shelf life of about 2 years. It's more to do with turnover than safety, and I'm sure if you scrapped a million gloves, the same journalists would complain about landfill and wasted money.

That said, it's still a bit odd that there was no proper backup store and stock rotation. Given the enormous number of people involved in drawing up a single purchase contract in the NHS (it has just taken one health authority 3 months to write an "emergency" contract for my services, and I didn't even ask for one: I said "if you are in a hurry, I'll do the work and send you a petty cash invoice". Thank goodness A&E doesn't work like that) I'm sure they could push new stuff in the front of the store and take the old stuff out at the back, like any other business, then all you need to do to build up emergency stocks is to buy more than you need in the good times. It's not as if they are doing anything radically different in hospitals, apart from wearing more HEPA masks than usual, so "epidemic stock" should be passing through the regular warehouses anyway. I smell a committee decision.

Full marks to the Indian cricket team. They are going to take 14 days quarantine on arrival in Australia then play the series as arranged. There being almost no other live sport on TV, they will make a load of money and everyone will be happy. I gather that world championship darts matches are in progress, with players and officials watching each other at home on webcam.

[acsinuk]

The news reporting is sensational but not balanced.  Only about one person in 10,000 under the age of 55 years according to statistics is going to die.  So London has 10 million people so 1000 young people are going to die which in the last 100 days is 10 per day.so why do the media only report on these deaths and not on the 100 that NHS treated and survived.
It would be wonderful to see just how thankful these families were with receiving their love one back and well again.  So BBC balance your reporting and show 100 happy families stories to every unfortunate one please, and stop fuelling the panic...

[alancalverd]

Age shall not weary them. UK life expectancy in 2019 was about 80 (male) to 84 (female).

Average weekly deaths in April 2019 were about 10,000. In April 2020 the average was just under 20,000. This clearly suggests that something is very wrong.   

Celebrating recovery is all very well, but prevention is in every respect better than cure. And having been in touch with a previously hospitalised survivor, I can report that celebrating  hospital discharge is, to say the least, premature.

Panic achieves nothing. Complacency is just as dangerous. If we err on the side of caution and anxiety we can save a lot of time, money, aggravation, disruption, chronic illness and death.

The good news is that you now have Prime Ministerial approval to decide whether you are eyesight-fit to drive after a serious illness, by driving your family 60 miles on public roads. This will save NHS GPs, opticians, and DVLA  administrators a lot of work, without adding greatly to the work of ambulance crews, A&E staff and undertakers, who will hardly notice another 10,000 calls a week. I have written to  the Minister for Transport (who agrees with the PM) asking when the privilege will be extended to pilots. There's nothing quite like an aerobatic display or a sector to Tenerife for checking your fitness to fly. 

[Bored chemist]

The news reporting is sensational but not balanced.  Only about one person in 10,000 under the age of 55 years according to statistics is going to die.  So London has 10 million people so 1000 young people are going to die which in the last 100 days is 10 per day.so why do the media only report on these deaths and not on the 100 that NHS treated and survived.
It would be wonderful to see just how thankful these families were with receiving their love one back and well again.  So BBC balance your reporting and show 100 happy families stories to every unfortunate one please, and stop fuelling the panic...

Given that we now have the world's highest death rate, it might be an idea to increase the population's  overall degree of caution, rather than to decrease it.

I can only assume that Cummngs has a copy of the Russian report and is threatening to release it if he is sacked.

[evan_au]

I see that Brazil (population 209 million) is having about 1000 COVID-19 deaths per day.

Converting the units to align with the thread title: that is almost 300 per day per 60 million people (and they haven't reached peak infection rates yet).
But that's no reason to panic: O Presidente says "Go to work as usual!".

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/27/americas/coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-timeline-intl/index.html

[acsinuk]

On average it takes a 100 days fpr the pandemic to develop into a big problem and then 100 days to decline.  So Brazil president has reacted and says as Norway and other countries we will not panic but everyone be careful and avoid near contact.  At present Brazil is losing 300 people per day which will increase to 600 per day probably for 150 days so total loss of life is 90,000;  higher than anywhere else in the world; but overall with a population of 300 million is only 3 in 10,000 of who 90% are already retired and many in retirement homes needing assistance as they already have one foot in the grave. 
Just watch the stats on world.   https://www.worldometers.info/   Is this pandemic apocalyptic?  No,so why panic.??

[Bored chemist]

On average it takes a 100 days fpr the pandemic to develop into a big problem and then 100 days to decline. 

How do you know?
It's not 200 days since it was first reported.
it's also not clear that anyone has seen the back end of it. (Maybe NZ if they simply lock all the doors)

[alancalverd]

Stalin said "One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic." Apparently acsin shares his philosophy.

An efficient hospital runs at 85 - 90% occupancy. Likewise a sensible funeral and burial corporation. Anything that increases hospitalisation and death rates by more than 10% for a couple of weeks is a "big problem".

As a 75 year old who has contributed a fortune in taxes, and a professional lifetime, to the provision of acute health services, I've earned the right to choose the time and cause of my death, and it won't be now or respiratory pneumonia. However as the vector for COVID is other people, I don't have much choice in the matter unless government intervenes and restricts their behaviour.

No need for panic. Indeed the only signs of panic are in the responses of inept politicians in the face of reasonable questions. Clear policies and effective decisions are always welcome. Pretending it doesn't matter or will just go away, is bollocks.

[acsinuk]

Alan, You are correct; a vaccine could still be a year away.  We elders must self isolate but the rest of working age must be allowed to return to work, so they can feed their children and those children must return to school to learn how to be useful contributers to the nation and the economy.  The hospitals all have vacant ICU beds, just in case you fall ill;    so why wait any longer??

[Bored chemist]

those children must return to school to learn how to be useful contributers to the nation and the economy.

What are the primary school kids going to learn  before the Summer holidays?
Is it really worth driving a coach and horses through the social distancing idea, just to get a small fraction of adults back to work (for as long  as it takes for them to become ill and have to leave work again)?

so why wait any longer??

Because it will kill people.

[alancalverd]

so why wait any longer??

Because R is a function of human behaviour, not an inherent property of the virus. The critical statistic is RN, the product of the average number of people infected by each carrier multiplied by the number of active carriers. Right now, we have very little clue of the value of N, and herding kids together in a school will increase R and thus N. The only control we have of N is continuing separation to minimise R.

A good number of schoolchildren will go on to study politics philosophy and economics, English literature, or media studies. 25% of all present schoolkids will never be gainfully employed. In what way do they become "useful contributors"? Practically all vocational training has been deleted from the national curriculum, and you can't make much of a living by reciting a list of kings and queens.

[Bored chemist]

you can't make much of a living by reciting a list of kings and queens.

Yes you can. They call it "teaching history".
(Also, you got your Ps muddled.)
http://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses-listing/philosophy-politics-and-economics

[alancalverd]

You call that a living?

And how typical of philosophers to pretend that everything else is a subset of philosophy. No wonder Parliament is full of arrogant unemployables.

[acsinuk]

Lets be positive and normalise as we now have Nightingale hospitals to save the NHS panicking, but surely this pandemic can teach us something valuable.  Like, can we beat the crush-hour??
1. A lot of jobs can be done from home on the internet with only occasional visits to the central offices saving time and fuel.
2. Cycling,scooting or walking to work is healthier than using public transport but we do need to route the cycle-ways away from all main roads by creating new cycle tracks possibly beside railway lines which flyover or underpass main roads and all stations.
3. Introduce a shift system of working for shops, stores, warehouses and factories 7 till 2 and 1 till 8 with no lunch breaks thus spreading the rush-hour out into 6 small peaks instead of the 2 huge peaks at present..