[Jolly2]

I think actually your gonna have to explain how a virus can know anything.

No, you have missed my point.
That's your problem, not mine.
You are saying that there's a difference between the 1st and 2nd waves.
If the virus can't count, how does it know to be extra virulent the second time?

A more deadly secound wave without a mutation does not need to be more virulent, it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count not the virus being more dangerous a secound time. Although through mutation that can happen.

Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw

So, pointing out that he can't even get the easy bits right isn't "nit picking" because it's not a tiny flaw, it's a huge hole in his credibility.
 (do you remember, that's what we were on about at the time?0

Except that's not a fact but rather your uncharitable interpretation, which I hold as nit picking.

Don't know anything about Birger Sørensen

My point is that I know exactly one thing about him.
He gets the easy stuff wrong.

As above. You Believe. Maybe he can come and defend himself.

maybe that's how it started

It's how peer review still goes on, at least when I have done it.
What was your experience - were you ever asked to be a peer?

No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.

[Bored chemist]

Except that's not a fact but rather your uncharitable interpretation, which I hold as nit picking.

So, you don't realise that you are misusing the phrase?

Why?

And as people love to point out with spainish flu as an example, but also with concern for a second wave of the current Covid19 pandemic, the first wave was no where nead as deadly as the secound.

OK, in one case there are two factors, a mutation of the virus (probably) and  sick soldiers from world war one coming home to homes and hospitals.
Perhaps you didn't realise that we aren't currently in the middle of a major international war.
It's not at all clear that the second wave this time is "real" it's just what happens when people get bored of lockdown.
The flu is just as deadly, but the people aren't bothering to avoid it.
It's stupid but that's humanity for you.

So, you still need an actual explanation of why the disease wasn't killing people in March.
Perhaps you didn't realise that, without a credible explanation for that, your idea is dead in the water.

No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.

It's hardly surprising, given how many other things you don't realise.

[Bored chemist]

it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count

Got any evidence for that?

[Jolly2]

Except that's not a fact but rather your uncharitable interpretation, which I hold as nit picking.

So, you don't realise that you are misusing the phrase?

Why?

Oh please enlighten me.

And as people love to point out with spainish flu as an example, but also with concern for a second wave of the current Covid19 pandemic, the first wave was no where nead as deadly as the secound.

OK, in one case there are two factors, a mutation of the virus (probably) and  sick soldiers from world war one coming home to homes and hospitals.
Perhaps you didn't realise that we aren't currently in the middle of a major international war.

No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.

It's not at all clear that the second wave this time is "real"

And who suggested it was? Speculation remember.

But glad that you see if there was a second wave it would be a thing.

it's just what happens when people get bored of lockdown

The flu is just as deadly, but the people aren't bothering to avoid it.
It's stupid but that's humanity for you.

So, you still need an actual explanation of why the disease wasn't killing people in March.

No I dont. If the peer review of the study, finally gets you to except that covid 19 was in Spain in March 2019. Well you'll have just deal with it.

Perhaps you didn't realise that, without a credible explanation for that, your idea is dead in the water.

What idea? Not my idea it's part if a Spanish study.

You're the one demanding answers to why there are no people dying of covid then. But they didn't even start recording deaths as covid until 2020. So there could simply be  a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else. Because as far as science was concerned covid19 didnt exist in March of 2019. Wasn't officially discovered for another 8 months.

Obviously after the peer review was excepted, I wonder how much time was used on that? If there is no peer review of those first sighting maybe we should all join David icke and denounce covid as a lie...

[author=Jolly2 link=topic=78973.msg607890#msg607890 date=1594060049]No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.

It's hardly surprising, given how many other things you don't realise.

You need to better...


 

it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count

Got any evidence for that?

That's got to be a joke. You honestly dont know what a hypersensitivity immune response is?

[Bored chemist]

Oh please enlighten me.

Because that's not what the phrase means.

But they didn't even start recording deaths as covid until 2020. So there could simply be  a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else.

And again...
That's not a sensible idea.

On the other hand, if it was true, we would know about it; as Set Fair points out.
 
Quote from: set fair on 05/07/2020 18:04:37
Even at at a doubling of just once a week there would be a billion cases in 7 months.

It wouldn't have mattered what label they put on a billion dead people in 7 months.
They would have noticed.

No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.

I said major


"As of July 27, 2018, there have been 2,372 U.S. military deaths in the War in Afghanistan."
From
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan

And who suggested it was?

You.
Specifically you said it was the reason for something (the low death toll)
Things have to be real to be an explanation.

You honestly dont know what a hypersensitivity immune response is?

Yes, I do.

Now answer my actual point, not the straw man
Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.

[Jolly2]

Oh please enlighten me.

Because that's not what the phrase means.

Well that's my definition and you qualify. Its publically stated you'll just have to take it.

But they didn't even start recording deaths as covid until 2020. So there could simply be  a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else.

And again...
That's not a sensible idea.

Whom suggest it was? Merely a possibility. A speculative possibility.

On the other hand, if it was true, we would know about it; as Set Fair points out.
 
Quote from: set fair on 05/07/2020 18:04:37
Even at at a doubling of just once a week there would be a billion cases in 7 months.

It wouldn't have mattered what label they put on a billion dead people in 7 months.
They would have noticed.

For a virus you claim is as deadly as the flu- your words. I really have a laugh at this point, which is rediculas.

No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.

I said major


"As of July 27, 2018, there have been 2,372 U.S. military deaths in the War in Afghanistan."
From
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan

Lets argue about the semantics of 'Major'. It is now the longest war in American History.

And who suggested it was?

You.
Specifically you said it was the reason for something (the low death toll)
Things have to be real to be an explanation.

I did no such thing. I speculated, it could be one of a few different explanations for why there were no covid19 deaths seen in March 2019 while the virus could have been present and not identified.
 
You're the one demanding a death count. There are plenty of reasons as to why covid19 could have been present but not killed people. Ranging from weaker strains to mutations, to a lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths. We can only speculate currently as to why if the virus was present in March 2019 there wasn't an increase in death count... maybe there was I havent seen the data.

You honestly dont know what a hypersensitivity immune response is?

Yes, I do.

Now answer my actual point, not the straw man
Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.

What straw man?
I'll send you a video so you can learn what you already claim you know? Seems redundant waste of time.

[alancalverd]

It wouldn't have mattered what label they put on a billion dead people in 7 months.
They would have noticed.

Somewhat wary of plunging into this argument, but there's a considerable difference between cases and deaths.

On current statistics worldwide, COVID seems to kill about 6% of those it infects. There are however two problems:

1. The infection can be very mild and not reported or diagnosed as COVID

2. Actual cause of death is usually respiratory insufficiency due to the body's response to COVID, so may not be reported as COVID unless there has been a credible positive test and the political will to admit it

So an additional billion cases would be weird but possibly not obviously significant over a period of 7 months - just a bad seasonal flu.  But the doubling of weekly death rates would be noted in countries that have strict recording procedures.  Indeed the bodies were piling up in the UK and particularly Italy, and will do so in the uncivilised parts of the  Americas. 

The low fatality rate, slow progression to death, and broad spectrum of mild symptoms, account for the success of this virus in cooperative host species like dumb humans.

[Bored chemist]

Well that's my definition and you qualify. Its publically stated you'll just have to take it.

For a start, this is your definition.

Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw you can, in ordered to rubbish a position or the person making it, while ignoring the actual point of the arguement or position taken.

No, I don't need to take your new "definition". I can still point out that only a fool redefines words in order to try to look like they were right.

Whom suggest it was? Merely a possibility

You did.
I quoted you.
You were putting forward "So there could simply be  a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else." as a reason why covid might have gone unnoticed for months.
And, you have tried telling the same fairy story twice.
So, no, it isn't a "possibility", is it?

So, since  that one is impossible, if you want to be taken seriously, you need another explanation.

Lets argue about the semantics of 'Major'. It is now the longest war in American History.

It's not a matter of semantics, it's a matter of vast movements of injured people carrying the virus which caused (in large part) the 2nd  wave of Spanish flu.
No current war is doing that.

That's a real difference which the grown-ups will understand.
Why are you trying to pretend that it isn't?

I did no such thing. I speculated, it could be one of a few different explanations for why there were no covid19 deaths seen in March 2019 while the virus could have been present and not identified.

It's the only explanation you have put forward, and it doesn't work.

You're the one demanding a death count

No
I'm the one pointing out that you wouldn't need one.
If covid had run through unabated by quarantine measures then...

It didn't matter if the called it "covid" or not; people would have noticed the queue at the crematorium.

There are plenty of reasons as to why covid19 could have been present but not killed people.

No there are not.

Ranging from weaker strains to mutations, to a lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths.

OK
" weaker strains to mutations"
Those are the same thing.
And I thought I already explained why that idea doesn't work.
It's implausible that the virus underwent the same mutation in China as in Spain and at the same time.
But the virus now in china is the same as the one that's now in Spain.

Then there's the other issue- if it stopped being essentially benign, and started being lethal, is it the same virus?

"lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths"
You keep restating that tosh.
Why?
You don't need a doctor to see a doubling of the death rate in a country, do you?
So, if covid had hit Spain "early" there would have been a massive death toll. Too big to ignore.

We can only speculate currently as to why if the virus was present in March 2019 there wasn't an increase in death count... maybe there was I havent seen the data.

No, we do not.
We can speculate something sensible instead.
We can speculate that there's a glitch in testing.

What straw man?

The one I explained earlier, remember?

Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.

You need to provide evidence for the claim you made.

it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count

Show evidence that, in the case of covid infected patients, it's a hypersensitivity reaction, - specifically one cause by previous exposure- that kills them.
(If it's not caused by previous exposure, it's nothing to do with a 2nd wave)

I'm still wondering, by the way, why do you bother with this childish trolling?

[Bored chemist]

So an additional billion cases would be weird but possibly not obviously significant over a period of 7 months

On current statistics worldwide, COVID seems to kill about 6% of those it infects.

With a doubling period of a month (which is "generous") half those cases would happen in the last month.

6% of a billion is 60 million deaths.
I think that the health care system in Spain is  sophisticated enough to recognise that something is amiss if about 150% of their population died in 1 month.

Obviously, not all the deaths would be in Spain, but the figures indicate that practically everybody in the country would be exposed, say 1 in 10 is infected (as a guess) , that's 10% of the population.
Of those 6% die.
So 0.3% of the population dies in the "last" month.
That's equivalent to, very roughly, a life span of 333 months.
And the actual life span in Spain must be something like three score years and ten.
That's 840 months.
So the death rate rises by something like 2.5 fold for a month.

Seriously, people would notice the queues at the morgue.
And, of course, with no border controls- because nobody has spotted the disease yet- it would be the same in the surrounding countries.

I think people would have noticed if covid (as we know it) had been in Spain in March last year.

On the other hand, about 15% of "common colds" are caused by coronaviruses.
We probably don't know a much as we should about them.
Maybe one of them looks enough like covid to have tricked the testing.

Pity they closed down the common cold research centre just when molecular biology reached the point where the research could have been useful.

[evan_au]

If it was intended to be a political or military weapon, it was released a month late...
- The international military games were held in Wuhan 18-27 October, 2019.
- With contestants from the military of over 100 countries
- About 2-4 weeks before the genetics suggest human "patient zero" occurred.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games

[alancalverd]

Obviously, not all the deaths would be in Spain, but the figures indicate that practically everybody in the country would be exposed, say 1 in 10 is infected (as a guess) , that's 10% of the population.

Not sure about Spain, but the initial R factor (actual new infections per carrier) in the UK was about 3 - 4. With no control on movement you can expect something closer to 80% infection within the first few months.

We know the UK weekly death rate doubled in March-April despite some feeble attempts at quarantine. However it is difficult to predict the long-term effect on life expectancy because most of the deaths were of people at the older end of the distribution, and half of them were deliberately infected by discharging infectious hospital patients to care homes. 

[Bored chemist]

ou can expect something closer to 80% infection within the first few months

It's hard to say.
You can certainly expect essentially 100% exposure, but not everyone exposed becomes infected (and not all infections are symptomatic, and not all symptomatic cases are diagnosed, and not all diagnosed cases are fatal).

I deliberately picked a low figure to avoid being accused of inflating it.

Fundamentally, the problem with the claim that "covid might not be noticed" is that it was noticed- in China, apparently rather quickly (albeit that the State  tried to deny it).

[alancalverd]

And now our beloved Boris's acolytes are pretending that asymptomatic infectivity wasn't known about in April. A barefaced lie since the first confirmed asymptomatic carrier in the UK was identified at the beginning of January, even if nobody in government had been following the news from Wuhan. 

Anyway, back to the original question: can COVID be used as a weapon? Surprisingly, it is very selective, and mainly infects Republicans and  others who believe they are immune because the President says so. Unique. A truly Darwinian weapon that increases the average intelligence of the species.

[alancalverd]

not everyone exposed becomes infected (and not all infections are symptomatic, and not all symptomatic cases are diagnosed, and not all diagnosed cases are fatal)

The apparent lack of symptoms in many cases means that the safest assumption is 100% infectivity above some fairly low threshold of exposure. The history of asymptomatic carriers shows that not all infections are diagnosed, and there is a large number of "probables" who recover without formal medical attention. Of those who are diagnosed in the UK, we know that around 20 - 25%  require lifesaving intervention, of whom about 20% die despite the full panoply of life support and ventilation. Worldwide the death rate is somewhat higher as not everyone has access to pressurised oxygen, never mind  ventilation. 

The fact remains that the only reliable statistic is excess weekly deaths. The expected number of deaths is around 10,000 per week in the UK. It rose to over 20,000 in April 2020.

[Bored chemist]

The expected number of deaths is around 10,000 per week in the UK. It rose to over 20,000 in April 2020.

Yes, and that was with at least some intervention. Most people were staying home.

Whereas Jolly is trying to say that the same virus was present in Spain, for months, without any intervention, but didn't produce an increase in the death rate.

So far, he hasn't been able to explain how the virus knew to act differently.

[alancalverd]

Hell of a difference between a virus being present in a country (the only known smallpox virus in Europe is in Birmingham University) and the number of people infected by it (none since the lab accident in 1978). 

A lot  of people mistakenly think that R is a property of the virus: it's actually a measure of human behavior. You can be dosed up to the eyeballs with Ebola but if you don't sneeze over anyone or make a blood donation your R value is 0. Or you could have a mild dose of the common cold and kiss everyone on the bus, giving you an R value of 50. The number of people infected in any given area depends on the R value of the carriers, which is high in dense populations like London and German meat processing plant (despite the fact that these are supposed to operate at clinical levels of asepsis!) and very low in the Spanish desert.

[Bored chemist]

The number of people infected in any given area depends on the R value of the carriers, which is high in dense populations like London and

I was in Barcelona a few years ago. It was roughly as crowded as London full of ****ing tourists (like me :-)  ).

If the population density was high enough (and the infected density high enough) that they found the virus in the sewers (just think about the dilution involved there) it's hard to see why nobody noticed.

[Jolly2]

Well that's my definition and you qualify. Its publically stated you'll just have to take it.

For a start, this is your definition.

Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw you can, in ordered to rubbish a position or the person making it, while ignoring the actual point of the arguement or position taken.

No, I don't need to take your new "definition". I can still point out that only a fool redefines words in order to try to look like they were right.

Whom suggest it was? Merely a possibility

You did.
I quoted you.
You were putting forward "So there could simply be  a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else." as a reason why covid might have gone unnoticed for months.
And, you have tried telling the same fairy story twice.
So, no, it isn't a "possibility", is it?

So, since  that one is impossible,

Sorry you'll have to justify your claim.  According to you it's impossible that a doctor could mis-diagnosed a death from Covid19?


Impossible! Justify the statement.

if you want to be taken seriously, you need another explanation.

Lets argue about the semantics of 'Major'. It is now the longest war in American History.

It's not a matter of semantics, it's a matter of vast movements of injured people carrying the virus which caused (in large part) the 2nd  wave of Spanish flu.
No current war is doing that.

That's a real difference which the grown-ups will understand.

I did no such thing. I speculated, it could be one of a few different explanations for why there were no covid19 deaths seen in March 2019 while the virus could have been present and not identified.

It's the only explanation you have put forward, and it doesn't work.

You're the one demanding a death count

No
I'm the one pointing out that you wouldn't need one.
If covid had run through unabated by quarantine measures then...

It didn't matter if the called it "covid" or not; people would have noticed the queue at the crematorium.

Ok justify your assumptions.

There are plenty of reasons as to why covid19 could have been present but not killed people.

No there are not.

Ranging from weaker strains to mutations, to a lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths.

OK
" weaker strains to mutations"
Those are the same thing.
And I thought I already explained why that idea doesn't work.
It's implausible that the virus underwent the same mutation in China as in Spain and at the same time

Whoever suggested there was a mutation at the same time in Spain and China? Noone did you assert that now .
So that's cute you make up a scenario of simulatious mutation to then debunk it as implausible when noone ever suggest it.

Sure your not a troll?

But the virus now in china is the same as the one that's now in Spain.

But they are not the same there are atleast 5 different strains. And the virus in China and Spain are different strains. As an RNA virus pieces of RNA are added with each new infection actually. So again,

You'll have to explain yourself.

 

Then there's the other issue- if it stopped being essentially benign, and started being lethal, is it the same virus?

"lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths"
You keep restating that tosh.
Why?
You don't need a doctor to see a doubling of the death rate in a country, do you?
So, if covid had hit Spain "early" there would have been a massive death toll. Too big to ignore.

We can only speculate currently as to why if the virus was present in March 2019 there wasn't an increase in death count... maybe there was I havent seen the data.

No, we do not.
We can speculate something sensible instead.
We can speculate that there's a glitch in testing.

What straw man?

The one I explained earlier, remember?

Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.

You need to provide evidence for the claim you made.

it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count

Show evidence that, in the case of covid infected patients, it's a hypersensitivity reaction, - specifically one cause by previous exposure- that kills them.
(If it's not caused by previous exposure, it's nothing to do with a 2nd wave)

I'm still wondering, by the way, why do you bother with this childish trolling?

Honestly I think the troll is you.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7113449/
Covid19 and hypersensitivity

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1521661620304526

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

Secondary infections ...
https://advances.massgeneral.org/research-and-innovation/article.aspx?id=1193

And you'll love this researchers link deadliness of 1918 Spanish flu linked to hypersensitivity ... enjoy
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/09/060927201707.htm

[Jolly2]

Do they still use germ warfare to fight wars these days?

I am asking because these outbreaks started after NK started saying they were sending the united states a Christmas present?

      So Naturally, I am curious as to weather such viruses are used like they used to be?

      Nk has been known to use them in the past? My mind is racing, having a lot of time to think while in isolation?

I am sure, I am not the only person who has seen the time coincidences, between the verbal sparring back and forth, between the countries, and threats on both sides. And then the outbreaks starting.

To return to the actually topic. Seems clearer each day that Covid19 has probably escaped from a laboratory. 

Weather it was engineered as a part of gain-of-function research or activily created as a bio weapon by some malthusians. Whether realeased intentionally or by accident; We are left to ponder, but from a laboratory it most likely came.

[Bored chemist]

According to you it's impossible that a doctor could mis-diagnosed a death from Covid19?

I never said that.

Ok justify your assumptions.

Covid kills people .
I really don't think I need to justify that but, if you insist, check worldometer or something.
.

Whoever suggested there was a mutation at the same time in Spain and China?

You, implicitly.
You don't seem to understand that.

But they are not the same there are atleast 5 different strains. And the virus in China and Spain are different strains.

The cool thing about molecular biology is that it tells you the evolution of those strains, and roughly when the different strains appeared.
So, all you need to do is show the proof of your original claim.

Honestly I think the troll is you.

I had a look through those pages, and I think you sent me on a wild goose chase as part of your trolling.

I couldn't see anything there that said that hypersensitivity reactions were a cause of a second wave.
They just make a bad disease worse.
Which, in turn, makes your idea that this deadly , contagious  virus was in Barcelona, but didn't kill people like it "usually" does even less likely.

If there's anything in those pages which actually explains that a second wave was more lethal because of hypersensitivity effects, could you point it out please?
Or are you going to accept that you made that bit up ?

but from a laboratory it most likely came.

So far, you have put forward zero evidence for that.