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Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 17:36:36I think actually your gonna have to explain how a virus can know anything.No, you have missed my point.That's your problem, not mine.You are saying that there's a difference between the 1st and 2nd waves.If the virus can't count, how does it know to be extra virulent the second time?
I think actually your gonna have to explain how a virus can know anything.
Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 17:36:36Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw So, pointing out that he can't even get the easy bits right isn't "nit picking" because it's not a tiny flaw, it's a huge hole in his credibility. (do you remember, that's what we were on about at the time?0
Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw
Quote from: set fair on 05/07/2020 18:13:25Don't know anything about Birger Sørensen My point is that I know exactly one thing about him.He gets the easy stuff wrong.
Don't know anything about Birger Sørensen
Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 17:36:36maybe that's how it startedIt's how peer review still goes on, at least when I have done it.What was your experience - were you ever asked to be a peer?
maybe that's how it started
Except that's not a fact but rather your uncharitable interpretation, which I hold as nit picking.
And as people love to point out with spainish flu as an example, but also with concern for a second wave of the current Covid19 pandemic, the first wave was no where nead as deadly as the secound.
No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.
it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count
Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 19:27:29Except that's not a fact but rather your uncharitable interpretation, which I hold as nit picking.So, you don't realise that you are misusing the phrase?Why?
Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 17:07:37And as people love to point out with spainish flu as an example, but also with concern for a second wave of the current Covid19 pandemic, the first wave was no where nead as deadly as the secound.OK, in one case there are two factors, a mutation of the virus (probably) and sick soldiers from world war one coming home to homes and hospitals.Perhaps you didn't realise that we aren't currently in the middle of a major international war.
It's not at all clear that the second wave this time is "real"
it's just what happens when people get bored of lockdownThe flu is just as deadly, but the people aren't bothering to avoid it.It's stupid but that's humanity for you.So, you still need an actual explanation of why the disease wasn't killing people in March.
Perhaps you didn't realise that, without a credible explanation for that, your idea is dead in the water.
Quote from: Bored chemist on 06/07/2020 19:48:03 [author=Jolly2 link=topic=78973.msg607890#msg607890 date=1594060049]No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.It's hardly surprising, given how many other things you don't realise.
[author=Jolly2 link=topic=78973.msg607890#msg607890 date=1594060049]No. I wasnt aware peer review was done in a scientist spare time.
Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 19:27:29it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death countGot any evidence for that?
Oh please enlighten me.
But they didn't even start recording deaths as covid until 2020. So there could simply be a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else.
On the other hand, if it was true, we would know about it; as Set Fair points out. Quote from: set fair on 05/07/2020 18:04:37Even at at a doubling of just once a week there would be a billion cases in 7 months.
No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.
And who suggested it was?
You honestly dont know what a hypersensitivity immune response is?
Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53Oh please enlighten me.Because that's not what the phrase means.
Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53But they didn't even start recording deaths as covid until 2020. So there could simply be a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else. And again...That's not a sensible idea.
Quote from: Bored chemist on 05/07/2020 19:47:48On the other hand, if it was true, we would know about it; as Set Fair points out. Quote from: set fair on 05/07/2020 18:04:37Even at at a doubling of just once a week there would be a billion cases in 7 months.It wouldn't have mattered what label they put on a billion dead people in 7 months.They would have noticed.
Quote from: Bored chemist on 08/07/2020 00:01:02Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.I said major"As of July 27, 2018, there have been 2,372 U.S. military deaths in the War in Afghanistan."Fromhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan
Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53No we are in the middle of a few Afganistan being the longest.I said major"As of July 27, 2018, there have been 2,372 U.S. military deaths in the War in Afghanistan."Fromhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan
Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53And who suggested it was?You.Specifically you said it was the reason for something (the low death toll) Things have to be real to be an explanation.
Quote from: Jolly2 on 07/07/2020 22:14:53You honestly dont know what a hypersensitivity immune response is?Yes, I do.Now answer my actual point, not the straw manShow some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.
It wouldn't have mattered what label they put on a billion dead people in 7 months.They would have noticed.
Well that's my definition and you qualify. Its publically stated you'll just have to take it.
Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw you can, in ordered to rubbish a position or the person making it, while ignoring the actual point of the arguement or position taken.
Whom suggest it was? Merely a possibility
Lets argue about the semantics of 'Major'. It is now the longest war in American History.
I did no such thing. I speculated, it could be one of a few different explanations for why there were no covid19 deaths seen in March 2019 while the virus could have been present and not identified.
You're the one demanding a death count
It didn't matter if the called it "covid" or not; people would have noticed the queue at the crematorium.
There are plenty of reasons as to why covid19 could have been present but not killed people.
Ranging from weaker strains to mutations, to a lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths.
We can only speculate currently as to why if the virus was present in March 2019 there wasn't an increase in death count... maybe there was I havent seen the data.
What straw man?
Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.
So an additional billion cases would be weird but possibly not obviously significant over a period of 7 months
On current statistics worldwide, COVID seems to kill about 6% of those it infects.
Obviously, not all the deaths would be in Spain, but the figures indicate that practically everybody in the country would be exposed, say 1 in 10 is infected (as a guess) , that's 10% of the population.
ou can expect something closer to 80% infection within the first few months
not everyone exposed becomes infected (and not all infections are symptomatic, and not all symptomatic cases are diagnosed, and not all diagnosed cases are fatal)
The expected number of deaths is around 10,000 per week in the UK. It rose to over 20,000 in April 2020.
The number of people infected in any given area depends on the R value of the carriers, which is high in dense populations like London and
Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29Well that's my definition and you qualify. Its publically stated you'll just have to take it.For a start, this is your definition.Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 17:36:36Essentially it's looking for any tiny flaw you can, in ordered to rubbish a position or the person making it, while ignoring the actual point of the arguement or position taken.No, I don't need to take your new "definition". I can still point out that only a fool redefines words in order to try to look like they were right.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29Whom suggest it was? Merely a possibilityYou did.I quoted you.You were putting forward "So there could simply be a case of mis labeling covid19 deaths as something else." as a reason why covid might have gone unnoticed for months.And, you have tried telling the same fairy story twice.So, no, it isn't a "possibility", is it?So, since that one is impossible,
if you want to be taken seriously, you need another explanation.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29Lets argue about the semantics of 'Major'. It is now the longest war in American History.It's not a matter of semantics, it's a matter of vast movements of injured people carrying the virus which caused (in large part) the 2nd wave of Spanish flu.No current war is doing that.That's a real difference which the grown-ups will understand.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29I did no such thing. I speculated, it could be one of a few different explanations for why there were no covid19 deaths seen in March 2019 while the virus could have been present and not identified.It's the only explanation you have put forward, and it doesn't work.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29You're the one demanding a death countNoI'm the one pointing out that you wouldn't need one.If covid had run through unabated by quarantine measures then...Quote from: Bored chemist on 05/07/2020 15:47:56It didn't matter if the called it "covid" or not; people would have noticed the queue at the crematorium.
Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29There are plenty of reasons as to why covid19 could have been present but not killed people. No there are not.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29Ranging from weaker strains to mutations, to a lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths.OK" weaker strains to mutations"Those are the same thing.And I thought I already explained why that idea doesn't work.It's implausible that the virus underwent the same mutation in China as in Spain and at the same time
But the virus now in china is the same as the one that's now in Spain.
Then there's the other issue- if it stopped being essentially benign, and started being lethal, is it the same virus?"lack of awareness by doctors recording the deaths"You keep restating that tosh.Why?You don't need a doctor to see a doubling of the death rate in a country, do you?So, if covid had hit Spain "early" there would have been a massive death toll. Too big to ignore.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29We can only speculate currently as to why if the virus was present in March 2019 there wasn't an increase in death count... maybe there was I havent seen the data.No, we do not.We can speculate something sensible instead.We can speculate that there's a glitch in testing.Quote from: Jolly2 on 08/07/2020 01:56:29What straw man?The one I explained earlier, remember?Quote from: Bored chemist on 08/07/2020 00:01:02Show some evidence for what you claimed that a hypersensitivity immune response does.You need to provide evidence for the claim you made.Quote from: Jolly2 on 06/07/2020 19:27:29it's hypersensitivity reactions that often cause the problems and increased death count Show evidence that, in the case of covid infected patients, it's a hypersensitivity reaction, - specifically one cause by previous exposure- that kills them.(If it's not caused by previous exposure, it's nothing to do with a 2nd wave)I'm still wondering, by the way, why do you bother with this childish trolling?
Do they still use germ warfare to fight wars these days? I am asking because these outbreaks started after NK started saying they were sending the united states a Christmas present? So Naturally, I am curious as to weather such viruses are used like they used to be? Nk has been known to use them in the past? My mind is racing, having a lot of time to think while in isolation? I am sure, I am not the only person who has seen the time coincidences, between the verbal sparring back and forth, between the countries, and threats on both sides. And then the outbreaks starting.
According to you it's impossible that a doctor could mis-diagnosed a death from Covid19?
Ok justify your assumptions.
Whoever suggested there was a mutation at the same time in Spain and China?
But they are not the same there are atleast 5 different strains. And the virus in China and Spain are different strains.
Honestly I think the troll is you.
but from a laboratory it most likely came.