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  1. Naked Science Forum
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  4. Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
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Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?

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Offline diverjohn (OP)

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Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« on: 04/06/2020 08:35:02 »
In my effort to better understand the current pandemic I read the Wikipedia article on the 1918 flu pandemic and was surprised to see the number of deaths at between 17 and 50 million, possibly as high as 100 million.
Why such uncertainty? I can accept a number such as 25 +/- 5 million but a number between 17 and 50 seems strange. I understand many countries kept reported numbers low to prevent panic, and many deaths were incorrectly diagnosed.
Any thoughts or explanations?
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Offline evan_au

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #1 on: 04/06/2020 10:32:28 »
I think the main reason was World War 1.

Everyone agrees that WW1 was a terrible bloodbath, with shelling, trench fighting, mud, malnutrition and poison gas.
- The Menin Gate lists the names of 54,000 soldiers from the British Empire whose bodies were never found

In a battlefield, there is no close analysis of cause of death
- Due to wartime censorship, deaths in the battlefield and on the home front were all suppressed, making it hard to get accurate statistics
- Recent estimates have suggested that the influenza pandemic killed more people than all the bullets, bombs and poison gas.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menin_Gate
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #2 on: 04/06/2020 11:17:43 »
A lot of the people who died did so in countries where recording  detailed cause of death isn't a high priority.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #3 on: 04/06/2020 16:19:43 »
Unless the victim's head is clearly separated from the body, "cause of death" is a clinical opinion influenced by all sorts of things, whereas "death" is a fairly certain fact. Influenza produces some fairly characteristic symptoms but the cause of death of a flu patient may be recorded as cardiac or respiratory failure, or secondary disease such as pneumonia.

The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.   
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #4 on: 04/06/2020 19:07:13 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/06/2020 16:19:43
The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.   
Yeah.
Great idea.
Blame the tail end of the war's deaths on flu.

It's a great idea, but, what about the people who are dying because they are too scared to go to hospital- because they don't want to catch covid?

What about the effect of poverty and stress induced by layoffs?


Quote from: alancalverd on 04/06/2020 16:19:43
The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.   
Or you could do what our beloved govt has totally failed to do, and test people.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #5 on: 04/06/2020 19:22:00 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 04/06/2020 19:07:13
Or you could do what our beloved govt has totally failed to do, and test people.
That can't be done retrospectively to evaluate Spanish Flu, nor is it of much statistical value right now where the weekly death rate has been exceptionally high since February and may well decrease to near normal before we have anything approaching representative or even credible testing. 

And even if your corpse tests positive for COVID, the obvious cause of death may well be "hit by bus". Remember that those most susceptible tend to have "other health conditions". It's a good example of where the fine detail is much less revealing than the coarse statistics.
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Offline Foregly

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Re: Why are estimates of deaths from the 1918 flu pandemic so wide?
« Reply #6 on: 26/06/2020 13:09:36 »
The any pandemic is liable  of more death in world and currently Corona pandemic is speeding around the world. Many people and economic are affected from this. So it should be alert of all with getting safety and care.   
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