[nudephil (OP)]

Here's a question sent in by John:

Are the "better" COVID death rates in Australia and NZ simply down to the fact that they are in their summer period and the virus is sensitive to UV light, especially UVC which is most intense in high summer? As they move into their winter period will they have a spike in death rates?

Any thoughts on how big a role UV plays?

[Bored chemist]

There are many factors. Notably this
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/10/prof-neil-ferguson-uk-would-have-halved-coronavirus-death-toll/

Are the "better" COVID death rates in Australia and NZ simply down to the fact that they are in their summer period

It is currently Winter in the antipodes.

[set fair]

And of course UV makes vitamin D, there is nowhere near enough in our diet.

[Bored chemist]

And of course UV makes vitamin D, there is nowhere near enough in our diet.

So, you are saying that, since it's Winter in NZ and so  the UV levels are low, so the Vit D levels are also low, and they just shook off the virus,  low Vitamin D protects against Covid?

Or are you getting to grips with correlation not being causation?

[alancalverd]

The death rates are probably no different from anyone else's: about 4% of those infected. But the infection rates were controlled from the outset by proper lockdown and quarantine - politics - and probably by not transferring infectious patients from hospitals into nursing homes with no capability of isolating patients or protecting staff - politics.

Fact is that the UK government consistently underfunded and mismanaged the care system beforehand, made no preparation for any kind of epidemic, then, when the balloon went up, did everything wrong and continues to do so, for reasons known only to whoever is actually in charge.

[evan_au]

It is currently Winter in the antipodes.

The outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere in February-March occurred in the coldest winter months, when people are most likely to be huddled indoors.

Officially, winter in Australia begins on 1st June, with the coldest month being August. So winter has only just started (and is fairly mild compared to winter in many parts of Europe). With little snow in Australia, warmth returns rapidly in September.

Because Australia and New Zealand are islands, people arriving have their passports checked, so they can be identified later (most of the COVID-19 cases in Australia originated on a single cruise ship). There is greater vehicle flow within Europe and North America.

I do expect that while Europe is coming into warmer weather, restrictions may be reduced, with another wave as colder weather sets in around November-December.
I am guessing that restrictions in the southern hemisphere will need to be tightened by August.

the virus is sensitive to UV light

It's true that genetic material is damaged by UV.
- I've heard claims that some wavelengths of UV-C can disable the virus without harming humans - but I want to see evidence of safety; in general, higher-energy photons do more damage to organic molecules.

But it probably has a lot to do with human behavior, too:
- In cold weather, we tend to huddle indoors with the windows shut, so we are locked inside with an accumulating viral load
- In warmer weather, we tend to open the windows and go outside more
- Even within Italy, Milan is fairly close to the alps. But the severity of COVID cases to date has been less severe towards the warmer parts of southern Italy (their turn will come, but let's hope they are better prepared than Milan)

[Bored chemist]

I'm now waiting for all the people who said that it was somehow related to 5G- of which NZ has plenty- to admit that they were conned.

[set fair]

And of course UV makes vitamin D, there is nowhere near enough in our diet.

So, you are saying that, since it's Winter in NZ and so  the UV levels are low, so the Vit D levels are also low, and they just shook off the virus,  low Vitamin D protects against Covid?

Or are you getting to grips with correlation not being causation?

This may be a bit difficult for you to inderstand Bored Chemist. Vitamin D levels depend on how much vitamin d a person has rather than how much they're gtting and vitamin D is stored in the body, so maximum leves are reached at the end of summer and slowly decrease over the winter.

[Bored chemist]

This may be a bit difficult for you to inderstand Bored Chemist.

Well, next time, correct the typos.

[Petrochemicals]

The death rates are probably no different from anyone else's: about 4% of those infected. But the infection rates were controlled from the outset by proper lockdown and quarantine - politics - and probably by not transferring infectious patients from hospitals into nursing homes with no capability of isolating patients or protecting staff - politics.

Fact is that the UK government consistently underfunded and mismanaged the care system beforehand, made no preparation for any kind of epidemic, then, when the balloon went up, did everything wrong and continues to do so, for reasons known only to whoever is actually in charge.

Rates of infected ? They are known to decreace over summer

[alancalverd]

Rates of infected ? They are known to decreace over summer

In the northern hemisphere. And exactly the opposite in the southern. All we know is that the export of COVID from Wuhan really began in earnest at the end of the northern winter.

[Bored chemist]

Can I just check on something...
Brazil is equatorial- very sunny all year.
So it should have low rates of covid.
Is that right?

[alancalverd]

Brazil has an idiot president. 'Nuff said.

[Bored chemist]

Brazil has an idiot president. 'Nuff said.

So has the USA.
It's as if there's a theme here.

[set fair]

Vitamin D in Brazil's population
Sufficient.......27%
Insufficient....45%
Deficient.......28%
according to this meta-study https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29420062/

Sorry I'm probaby going to keep banging on about it, like I did with masks, until it's recognised for the major comorbidity it is.

[Bored chemist]

Are you going to show that it's not a proxy for poverty/ being well fed?
Or are you not bothering with science?

[set fair]

Are you going to show that it's not a proxy for poverty/ being well fed?
Or are you not bothering with science?

It has little to do with diet, practically nobody, rich nor poor gets even a quarter of vitamin D from their diet. Not quite true - some countries do a half decent job adding it to food, many more make a feeble go at this.

[alancalverd]

Damned if I know how homo sapiens has survived this long. Or even manged to evolve in the first place. Thank goodness for supplement salesmen - the new messiahs.

[Bored chemist]

It has little to do with diet, practically nobody, rich nor poor gets even a quarter of vitamin D from their diet. Not quite true - some countries do a half decent job adding it to food, many more make a feeble go at this.

Did you not understand my point, or did you ignore it?

Vitamin D status is so strongly correlated with other factors that it is difficult to say if it is causal.

Do you have any evidence that the observed relationship between vitamin D and covid survival is causal?

[Bored chemist]

Damned if I know how homo sapiens has survived this long.

Most of the things we do that keep the species alive are not governed by the "sapient" bits of the brain.