[pensador (OP)]

In view of the recent, covid-19 mutation in minks transmitted to humans, and some pets catching Covid-19 from their owners. Minks are not rodents and are cut and paste “Mustelids belong to the large order Carnivora, which means they are actually more closely related to other members of Carnivora, like dogs, cats and bears, than to rats and mice.” Other members in the weasel family include polecats, badgers, minks, martens, black-footed ferrets, wolverines and otters"

How did the mink get covid? Human to mink transmission or some other route?

I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks. I have not checked this little factoid, but see know reason why I might have been misinformed.

Rats live in sewers, could rats contract a mutation of covid-19. They have in the past been responsible for transmitting plagues, and are everywhere. Rats do not obey social distancing rules made by politicians, if they contracted the disease or a mutation, could they overcome human social distancing  rules?

[evan_au]

How did the mink get covid? Human to mink transmission or some other route?

It was first noticed in mink farms - I have heard of outbreaks in Spain and the Netherlands in July-20, and now in Denmark (November-20). There have been major culling operations in both countries.

Mink farms have very concentrated populations of mink in small cages, so it only takes one to get sick for all of them to get sick.
- the most likely route of infection is from humans to mink.
- Humans travel from farm to farm, spreading coronavirus
- But when a virus gets into a new host (eg mink), it is likely that mutated virus will grow better in their new host

There have been cases reported where the mink have then transmitted this mutated version back to humans
-The big questions are whether this new mutation:
       1. will affect humans more severely than the original human virus strains
       2. will evade the human immunity conferred by infection by the human strains
       3. will evade the human immunity conferred by the vaccines now being tested
See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/spain-to-cull-nearly-100000-mink-in-coronavirus-outbreak
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-05/denmark-cull-mink-population-over-coronavirus-spread-mutation/12851638

I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks.

Yes, this has proven to be a useful tool in many countries.

Rats live in sewers, could rats contract a mutation of covid-19.

This is possible.

Fortunately, unlike several previous rat-borne plagues, humans are now well aware of rats as a disease vector, and use cats and rat-traps to keep them out of our houses (at least, in Western countries).
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

[pensador (OP)]

This is possible.

Fortunately, unlike several previous rat-borne plagues, humans are now well aware of rats as a disease vector, and use cats and rat-traps to keep them out of our houses (at least, in Western countries).

Pet Cats have caught it from humans. It is likely then that if they are good ratters, they will get it and give to their owners. Gardeners and people who get their hands dirty might easily be in contact with rat dirt that rats have coughed and spluttered over.

This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat, I understand which is a flying rodent, it appears to jump species and mutate quickly. 

The world will have to change, life expectancy is going to reduce back to 1950's levels. 3 score and 10

Any opinions on what should be done in the future, politically and socially???
The economy will not work if we are in lock down all the time. How will people have relationships.
Should the human race bite the bullet and let the disease spread, in a controlled fashion??

[alancalverd]

This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat, I understand which is a flying rodent, it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.

Not a rodent, but a separate order again, with thousands of species, and probably closer to "flying mink" than to rats.

Should the human race bite the bullet and let the disease spread, in a controlled fashion??

Controlled how,  to infect whom? Remember it is 20% disabling and 5% fatal, so if you allow it to spread, your immediate family and all their descendants will suffer from an entirely preventable disease. Even if that suits you,  I don't want mine to.

[Bored chemist]

This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat,..., it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.

The Chinese have been eating bats for  centuries.
What definition of "quickly" are you using?

[pensador (OP)]

Controlled how,  to infect whom? Remember it is 20% disabling and 5% fatal, so if you allow it to spread, your immediate family and all their descendants will suffer from an entirely preventable disease. Even if that suits you,  I don't want mine to.

I wasnt suggesting how to control it. But since you ask, I understand it is mainly the weak, and elderley that have problems with covid. What would be wrong, with letting the younger and fitter people get the disease, and get over it. They could go to covid camps, where you get infected with your mates and mostly recover. Once recovered they would then have some immunity to the disease, and would be less likely to spread it the weak.

In India according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ they have less than 1% mortality rate, america is up above the 4% mortality level along with some other wealthy countries. Where do you get your data, does it just apply to a particular group of people?

This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat,..., it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.

The Chinese have been eating bats for  centuries.
What definition of "quickly" are you using?

As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs. Ref timescale I was using from bats to chinese to italians to the rest of the world and now mink and back to humans. Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years. Time scale therefore less than a year by these standards is quick. Not centuries eons or nano seconds

[Bored chemist]

As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs.

You say that like they are the only ones.
Eating stuff is quite widespread behaviour among humans.

Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years.

Well, I remember SARS, MERS, HIV and covid, so I must be about 200 years old.

More importantly, you are missing the fact that Chinese people (and, obviously, other people too, but we can leave your xenophobia to the side for now) have been eating bats- presumably bats with coronaviruses for centuries before one evolved into a form that significantly affects people.

So the period the virus  has had for mutating is centuries.

[Bored chemist]

What would be wrong, with letting the younger and fitter people get the disease,

What would be wrong with that is that it's based on an unreal understanding of the disease.
It's true that most young people shrug off the infection  without significant harm.
But it's also true that most of the over 70s  do the same.

Every now and then I Heard this absurdly simplistic cry
"We should shield the vulnerable and let the disease rip through the rest of us".
Well, that's a fine idea.
Except we have no way to know who the vulnerable actually are.
We can say "it's about 5% of those over 70"
And we can say thing like "it's about 0.1% of those between 15 and 45 " or whatever
But we don't know which  f***ing 0.1% it is, so we can't shield them.

[alancalverd]

The death rate is about 5% overall. The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to  "the economy".

"Letting the disease rip through the young"  is fine as long as they never come in contact with the old (whom they will infect) , or get old themselves (because unlike mumps and measles, there is no demonstrated longterm immunity).

[pensador (OP)]

As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs.

You say that like they are the only ones.
Eating stuff is quite widespread behaviour among humans.

Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years.

Well, I remember SARS, MERS, HIV and covid, so I must be about 200 years old.

More importantly, you are missing the fact that Chinese people (and, obviously, other people too, but we can leave your xenophobia to the side for now) have been eating bats- presumably bats with coronaviruses for centuries before one evolved into a form that significantly affects people.

So the period the virus  has had for mutating is centuries.

I tend to eat anything on a menu that I dont recognize or have not eaten before. If Dog or Cat had been a delicacy where I have been I am sure i would have tried it. I nearly had a rat once being passed of as a big hamster Coy. The americans on the next table said it was a bit bony   Hamsters dont have tails 30cm long, otherwise they do look like big rats when skinned.

HIV only affects a minority of the population, but interestingly there is still no vaccine for it, and people do not become resistant to it. Likewise there is no vaccine yet for covid, although trials are being conducted.

In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.

Xenophobia ! not me dude. I like foreigners and foreign food. Perhaps its the politicians who have xenophobia about foreigners with covid or other people on this forum

Speaking of which 

[pensador (OP)]

The death rate is about 5% overall. The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to  "the economy".

"Letting the disease rip through the young"  is fine as long as they never come in contact with the old (whom they will infect) , or get old themselves (because unlike mumps and measles, there is no demonstrated longterm immunity).

Where are you getting your figures from Alan ? If the death rate was this high their would be a lot more dead people in the world attributed to covid.

Why does all of society have to be locked down when the majority of society is not vulnerable. There is no long term demonstrated documented level or reinfection. Measles you can get shingles years later. The longterm effects of covid or any vaccine tested might also take years to manifest.

People in the 40 to 60 age group, occupy what positions that could not be better occupied by a ambitious younger more energetic people. If it was people in the 30 to 40 age group being affected would the politicians in charge lock down the economy.

Edit Just locking down the vulnerable, and promoting the 30 to 40 age group into managerial positions in companies to make them less vulnerable to the long term effects of covid might make the economy break out of the imminent recession caused by the lockdown

Again where do you get your figures? Above 45 from what I have read this risk levels start going up, especially if you are not fit or have underlying health issues.

[alancalverd]

In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.

The imposition of effective quarantine will eventually clear any geographical area of a virus. The required period for COVID seems to be not more than 40 days if cases are handled properly. Then you deploy an entry test or vaccination certificate for  anyone entering the area, and gradually amalgamate and expand safe areas.

Because the perimeter/area ratio is an inverse function of radius, the job gets easier as the safe area grows - you can appoint  immigration control personnel as a multiple of r²  but the boundary you need to patrol only increases with r.

[Bored chemist]

Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?

I don't know about Alan but I got
"Deaths: 1,271,382
Recovered: 36,147,663"
from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And that gives about 3.5% which is close enough to 5% for me not to worry too much- given all the uncertainties involved.

Where are you getting your data?

[alancalverd]

Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?

GOV.UK
UK confirmed cases to date: 1,213,363
UK confirmed deaths to date 49,238

You can do the maths yourself, but remember whilst "cases" are up to date, "deaths" officially occur up to 28 days after diagnosis. Since "cases"  was increasing fairly steeply until last week, we can expect more "deaths" per "case" over the next few weeks.

[Bored chemist]

Measles you can get shingles years later.

Wrong and wrong.
Shingles is caused by the chickenpox virus, not the measles one.
And you don't "get it later"; you get it because it never went away.
It's a result of the virus "hiding" in the cells of the nervous system and staging a breakout when the immune system is struggling.

I presume the rest of your claims are equally poorly researched- i.e. wrong.

The longterm effects of covid or any vaccine tested might also take years to manifest.

True.
For all we know, anyone who gets covid drops dead on teh anniversary of being infected.
But that's unlikely.

It's possible that both the vaccine and the virus have long term effects.
But a moment's thought makes it clear that a vaccine (with few components- mainly the "bit of the virus that triggers an immune response" ) will cause no more problems than the virus which contains many components  also including " thebit of the virus that triggers an immune response".

And the vaccine isn't going to infect others and kill them.
So it's pretty silly to lump the two together like that.

Why did you do it?

[alancalverd]

Mark 6:4

[pensador (OP)]

Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?

I don't know about Alan but I got
"Deaths: 1,271,382
Recovered: 36,147,663"
from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And that gives about 3.5% which is close enough to 5% for me not to worry too much- given all the uncertainties involved.

Where are you getting your data?

Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.

[Bored chemist]

Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.

Worldometer says about 3.5% Alan said "about 5%" and backed it up with data that said about 3.4%

So everyone agrees- except you...
 
Is that because you don't bother to establish facts?

[alancalverd]

Pensador: Not my figures, but yesterday's statement from the UK  government statistical service. The worldometer figure is culled from countries with different reporting criteria and in different phases of the disease, but as BC points out, its average is pretty close to the reported UK death rate.

The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.

BC: 49,238/1,213,363 = 4.1% on my calculator. But give it a couple of weeks for the recent spike to claim its victims.

[pensador (OP)]

Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.

Worldometer says about 3.5% Alan said "about 5%" and backed it up with data that said about 3.4%

So everyone agrees- except you...
 
Is that because you don't bother to establish facts?

Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong, different age groups are affected differently. I seem to be the only one who read the link from worldometer ref the effects of covid on different age groups.

I think my question was answered on the second post. The rest is just straw man arguments talking crap.