[Bored chemist]

BTW, a bit late but, re.

Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,

Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.

[pensador (OP)]

Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly. My concern was that the raw figures of deaths per infection didn't make sense, but having seen the recent graphs, I can see why they are currently anomalous.

You might also get a secondary anomaly: any visitor who thinks he might be infected would be inclined to return home whilst asymptomatic and thus spread the disease and possibly die on the mainland.

The Azores is semi autonomous and self governing region. The political leaders here closed the islands down before the mainland when they saw how serious this bug was. Only essential travel was allowed up until May. When the islands were reopened.
 
The testing tracking and tracing in the azores was further enhanced during the first outbreak by preventing travel between the islands and individual council areas. In the final stages on Sao Miguel the army even closed of an entire town to prevent people going out and spreading the disease for a week or so.

The UK is not a small island, and I dont see the british government regardless of party locking the country down in a way that would eradicate the virus, like it was done in the Azores. Additional cases were detected in the Azores today, so I guess they will go into full lock down again, and stop travel.

The death figures in the Azores are low but we only have low infection levels and it is not currently in any old folks home as far as I am aware. I noted today that the shops are now restricting the number of people inside again, due to the recent increases in covid-19 on a few of the islands. A new lock down might be imminent prior to the mid winter solstice festivals.  The cases on one island have increased 800% in just 3 weeks. They now have eight people infected on Sao Jorge, which is about 0.1% of the population.

[pensador (OP)]

BTW, a bit late but, re.

Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,

Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.

Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%

[Bored chemist]

What do you think the word "about" means?

[evan_au]

I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks.

There was a report on sewage testing for COVID-19 in the Coronacast podcast today (12 minutes).
- Sewage testing appears to be very effective at detecting COVID-19 infections, even in non-symptomatic & pre-symptomatic cases
- It is estimated that it is sensitive enough to detect 1 infected individual in a population of 100,000 to 1,000,000.
- It has been applied to whole cities, individual university dormitories, prisons, cruise ships and airplane flights

Listen: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/everything-youve-wanted-to-know-about-sewage-testing/12878138

[alancalverd]

The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.

I'm no great fan of worldometer because it is uncritical of the validity of its inputs, but where the figures are believable the central estimate when the infection rate stabilises, seems to be in the region of 5% fatality. Which, as I said elsewhere, correlates with the early "gold standard" data from Wuhan. During periods of rapid growth, as now, the apparent fatality rate decreases because new infections are counted before those already infected have died.   

You can expect  the figure to reduce in any area with a stable infection rate where more than 10% of the population has been infected, since proportionally more of the elderly and comorbid will have died in the growth phase of the epidemic. The world leader at present seems to  be the USA with just under 3% of the population diagnosed positive to date, so any national figure below 4% fatality within 40 days of infection, is dubious.

[alancalverd]

BTW, a bit late but, re.

Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,

Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.

Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%

The Indian figure is currently reported as 1.4%. This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that  South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID. I haven't found reliable excess mortality statistics for India. Given the tiny number of infections in the Azores, the apparent fatality rate could swing from zero to 20% in a day, so not a useful indicator of the properties of the disease.

[Bored chemist]

This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that  South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID.

The indication is that people of South Asian ancestry living in the UK are more susceptible.
That doesn't necessarily tell you about how they would fare elsewhere in the world.
However a figure of 1.4% is very odd.
It could reflect a matter of record-keeping or possibly political "massaging" of the figures.
I'd not like to have to rule out simple demographics as an issue.
On the whole, there's a lot of people in India living in poverty, and that tends to mean, on average, a young population.
This disease tends not to kill the young, so maybe it tends not to kill Indians.

[alancalverd]

"South Asian ancestry" in most cases only goes back one or two generations in the UK. The concern here is that South Asians are strongly represented in the professions and as business owners - decidedly "middle class" - yet apparently more susceptible to fatal COVID infection than their caucasian colleagues and counterparts. If this were a cultural or economic phenomenon, one would expect a correspondingly high or higher fatality rate in India, and if genetic,  a rate at or above the UK average.

The population pyramids can be compared, with 12% of the UK  and 6% of the Indian population over 70, so if COVID only killed the over-70's and all else was equal, you would expect to see 2 - 2.5% fatality in India.

The reported 1.4% is almost certainly unreliable.   

[pensador (OP)]

BTW, a bit late but, re.

Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,

Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.

Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%

The Indian figure is currently reported as 1.4%. This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that  South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID. I haven't found reliable excess mortality statistics for India. Given the tiny number of infections in the Azores, the apparent fatality rate could swing from zero to 20% in a day, so not a useful indicator of the properties of the disease.

If the figures dont fit preconceptions perhaps the assumptions are wrong. India has a less obese population, and less elderley, than the USA, Italy or the UK. Why would India not report the correct figures. Only one person I know of with the disease has died. He did not die from the disease but complications afterwards, ie blood clot and heart attack. Some other friends report breathlessness, but being smokers I am not surprised. Everyone else I am aware of who has had the disease are OK now.

The Azores could be regarded as a micro model of how the disease can be controlled, and eradicated without a vaccine. Many of the Carribean islands are now becoming clear of covid also. They also locked down and stopped travel.

Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?

The worldometer site does give all its sources, if you dig into each link. It does not show any major country with a 5% death rate.

[Bored chemist]

Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?

What do you think the word "about" means?

[pensador (OP)]

Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?

What do you think the word "about" means?

Do I assume you are making the 5% figure up. On closed cases there is about a 3% mortality rate, across the planet. This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[alancalverd]

You need a whole bag of salt to read Worldometer. As I said, India shows around 1.4% fatalities but it is difficult to believe that their true recovery rates are significantly higher than the USA.

You also have a problem that when infection rates are rising exponentially (as now, almost everywhere) , the apparent fatality rate (deaths per 100 cases) decreases because there is a lag of about a month between infection and death.

The current issue of The Actuary (a believable professional source) puts the UK excess deaths (the only credible parameter, as discussed elsewhere) to date at 62,100, 4.6% of the known infections. As the daily new case rate has doubled in the last month, I would be very surprised if the fatality rate turns out to be much less than 6% by Christmas.

[alancalverd]

This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased

Many thanks. Some years ago I had to fill in an insurance claim that included a space for "Signature of Deceased". I have now identified the author. 

[Bored chemist]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?

You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?

[pensador (OP)]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?

You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?

Only an idiot would expect an answer

[pensador (OP)]

This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased

Many thanks. Some years ago I had to fill in an insurance claim that included a space for "Signature of Deceased". I have now identified the author.

sh1t did I write that  I must be going native and forgetting how to speak english

[Bored chemist]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide  to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?

You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?

Only an idiot would expect an answer

Do you  mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site  without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.

[evan_au]

This week's Naked Genetics podcast addressed this question.
Listen (5 minutes) or read the transcript:
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/mink-coronavirus-whats-danger

[pensador (OP)]

Do you  mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site  without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.

Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer