[Glenballs]

No.

Western governments will continue to negotiate with the virus in the hope of being re-elected because they have allowed you to go on holiday and infect warmer nations, or kill your grandmother at Christmas.

Politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. Very few politicians are capable of making the right choice, and idiots will always vote for the unacceptable because it is palatable.

i thought that no was very blunt, next year surely has to be better for everyone.i do think next year life will return to normal, no face masks or social distancing.

[alancalverd]

It all depends on what people do at Christmas and New Year.

If everyone stays at home for a couple of weeks, the incidence of new cases will decrease to the point that vaccination and continued vigilance may reduce the risk to an acceptable level.   

But the sheer idiocy shown by behavior in shops and Christmas markets, plus the embarrassing "leadership" from politicians putting schmaltz before public safety, means that we can expect an overwhelming surge in cases in January and inevitable disaster thereafter.

The virus does not recognise the special importance of Boris, Jesus or Hogmanay, but is happy to take advantage of human contact.

[Bored chemist]

next year surely has to be better for everyone.

"Next year" starts in about 2 weeks.
Given the partying over Xmas, it's not going to start well. There will probably be the biggest ever recorded spike in transmission.

After that it will probably settle down.
But it's going to be months before we are anything like "back to normal".

[Glenballs]

next year surely has to be better for everyone.

"Next year" starts in about 2 weeks.
Given the partying over Xmas, it's not going to start well. There will probably be the biggest ever recorded spike in transmission.

After that it will probably settle down.
But it's going to be months before we are anything like "back to normal".

Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancing

[Kryptid]

Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancing

It'll take time for the vaccine to get to everyone, and then more time after that for the vaccine to take full effect. Then there are people who will refuse to be vaccinated at all.

[alancalverd]

boris said spring life will be normal again

....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.

[Glenballs]

boris said spring life will be normal again

....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.

so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?

[Kryptid]

so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?

It's more like he's saying that we should take what BoJo says with a grain of salt. Feel free to be hopeful, just prepare yourself for disappointment in the case the pandemic isn't over as soon as you'd hope.

[Glenballs]

so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?

It's more like he's saying that we should take what BoJo says with a grain of salt. Feel free to be hopeful, just prepare yourself for disappointment in the case the pandemic isn't over as soon as you'd hope.

The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it

[alancalverd]

The hospitals are crammed with optimists.

The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.

Choose your sources with care.

[Glenballs]

The hospitals are crammed with optimists.

The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.

Choose your sources with care.

So are you saying there lieing as that's giving people false hope, we know the Oxford vaccine is waiting to be approved within days, surely once that is out and people are getting vaccinated by the millions a day, restrictions will be lifted and life will finally resume normally

[alancalverd]

It is entirely possible to vaccinate the UK population within 2 weeks. It is also possible to organise a pissup in a brewery. But not under this government.

[Glenballs]

It is entirely possible to vaccinate the UK population within 2 weeks. It is also possible to organise a pissup in a brewery. But not under this government.

So should I just see what happens then

[Colin2B]

boris said spring life will be normal again

....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.

so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?

I think we should be positive, but realistic.
The vaccination programme is a major undertaking and although it has started NHS vaccinations in England began on 8th December and in the 13 days to Sunday the 20th December 521,594 people received a first NHS vaccination. The 2nd will be 21 days after first and 7 days after that 90% of those vaccinated will have full immunity. So, people being vaccinated now won’t be immune until end of January.
It all depends how quickly the system can ramp up and it is a major exercise in training, distribution, admin etc so we’ll probably have a better idea of a realistic roll out by end of Jan.
Remember, this is a government that said a Brexit deal would be easypeasy!

[Glenballs]

boris said spring life will be normal again

....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.

so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?

I think we should be positive, but realistic.
The vaccination programme is a major undertaking and although it has started NHS vaccinations in England began on 8th December and in the 13 days to Sunday the 20th December 521,594 people received a first NHS vaccination. The 2nd will be 21 days after first and 7 days after that 90% of those vaccinated will have full immunity. So, people being vaccinated now won’t be immune until end of January.
It all depends how quickly the system can ramp up and it is a major exercise in training, distribution, admin etc so we’ll probably have a better idea of a realistic roll out by end of Jan.
Remember, this is a government that said a Brexit deal would be easypeasy!

All the papers are full of it saying the Oxford vaccine is out Monday and were 15 million jabs from freedom rishi sunak has said its true so what more evidence do you need

[Colin2B]

rishi sunak has said its true so what more evidence do you need

I want to see what the actual performance is by mid January, then it might be possible to make a reasonable forecast of your question. We will certainly see easing of restrictions progressively, but you have come onto a science site asking for a scientific forecast rather than a political one. At the moment we are saying there isn’t enough evidence to be certain.
Remember, you don’t just need to vaccinate the highly vulnerable. As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.

[evan_au]

the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days

Which Oxford vaccine?
1. The one where they give you two full doses (but in Phase 3 trials, it's only around 60% effective)?
2. Or the one where they give you a half dose, followed by a full dose? (...which is claimed to be 90% effective, but hasn't had a big enough Phase 3 trial to prove it.)
3. Or the one where the Oxford vaccine is paired with the Russian Sputnik vaccine? (The trials are just beginning, and won't have Phase 3 results for months...)

We have at least 3 trials underway, none of which shows better performance than the RNA vaccines at this point in time.

I have no doubt that the more temperature-stable Oxford vaccine will be necessary in countries without reliable electricity or transport infrastructure.
- On what evidence do you base your opinion that the Oxford vaccine will be better than the RNA vaccines in Western countries like the UK?

[alancalverd]

what more evidence do you need

Evidence.

[charles1948]

what more evidence do you need

Evidence.

Mightn't it be best to wait a bit, until evidence of mass-vaccination results becomes available.

[Petrochemicals]

As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.

Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
Screenshot_20201227_173034.jpg (60.99 kB . 570x962 - viewed 5551 times)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020

The hospitals are crammed with optimists.

The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.

Choose your sources with care.

Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?

The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it

15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February.  But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.