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  5. When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
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When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?

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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #40 on: 27/12/2020 19:27:14 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
Quote from: Colin2B on 27/12/2020 08:50:44
As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
* Screenshot_20201227_173034.jpg (60.99 kB . 570x962 - viewed 5551 times)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020
Quote from: alancalverd on 26/12/2020 22:41:18
The hospitals are crammed with optimists.

The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.

Choose your sources with care.
Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?
Quote from: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 22:35:25
The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it
15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February.  But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.

So are you saying it won't happen then

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Offline charles1948

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #41 on: 27/12/2020 22:41:46 »
I like wearing my face-mask.  It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits.  Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it.  These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!

So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #42 on: 27/12/2020 22:46:56 »
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 22:41:46
I like wearing my face-mask.  It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits.  Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it.  These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!

So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!

What exactly is that supposed to mean
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #43 on: 27/12/2020 22:50:36 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
Note "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #44 on: 27/12/2020 23:01:08 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 27/12/2020 22:50:36
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
Note "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.

So what are you saying I don't understand, I'm in a tier 4  area do you think we will move out of this tier as soon as a couple of weeks when the Oxford vaccine has rolled out to all the most vulnerable people
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Offline charles1948

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #45 on: 27/12/2020 23:46:27 »
Quote from: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 22:46:56
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 22:41:46
I like wearing my face-mask.  It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits.  Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it.  These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!

So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!

What exactly is that supposed to mean

Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously.  We are all in it together. 

Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually.  Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.

Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!

The thing is - don't panic!
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #46 on: 27/12/2020 23:54:43 »
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
Quote from: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 22:46:56
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 22:41:46
I like wearing my face-mask.  It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits.  Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it.  These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!

So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!

What exactly is that supposed to mean

Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously.  We are all in it together. 

Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually.  Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.

Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!

The thing is - don't panic!
[/quote

All I basically want to know is once this Oxford vaccine is approved tomorrow or Tuesday and then they ramp up vaccinating people to the millions a day or week etc at the end of Jan early Feb. The government and all the papers have said there will be no lockdowns or restrictions. I know they all don't always speak the truth but for that news to be posted everywhere it must be true surel, they want to tell people this misery is all finally over which will be soon right. No more masks and social distancing we can shake hands, hug and get close to people exactly like life should be
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Offline Kryptid

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #47 on: 27/12/2020 23:56:19 »
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually

Why?

Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.

It's very relevant. We need to slow down the pandemic so that medical personnel are not overwhelmed.
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #48 on: 28/12/2020 00:07:42 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 27/12/2020 23:56:19
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually

Why?

Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.

It's very relevant. We need to slow down the pandemic so that medical personnel are not overwhelmed.

We all want our lives back to live normally
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #49 on: 28/12/2020 00:26:13 »
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
Quote from: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 22:46:56
Quote from: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 22:41:46
I like wearing my face-mask.  It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits.  Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it.  These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!

So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!

What exactly is that supposed to mean

Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously.  We are all in it together. 

Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually.  Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.

Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!

The thing is - don't panic!

Do you honestly think we will be out of these restrictions by end of Jan early Feb, or I suppose your gunna say depends how quickly they vaccinate people by what I've heard it's going to be millions a day / week which ain't going to take long
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Offline Glenballs

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #50 on: 28/12/2020 00:28:25 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
Quote from: Colin2B on 27/12/2020 08:50:44
As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
* Screenshot_20201227_173034.jpg (60.99 kB . 570x962 - viewed 5551 times)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020
Quote from: alancalverd on 26/12/2020 22:41:18
The hospitals are crammed with optimists.

The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.

Choose your sources with care.
Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?
Quote from: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 22:35:25
The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it
15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February.  But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.

I thought the Oxford vaccine is only 1 shot I've heard as the data is the best formula possible and that would make it so much quicker to get it into people's arms and away they go next one in
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Offline charles1948

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #51 on: 28/12/2020 01:21:04 »
Do you find it difficult to reply to a particular post, because all the other posts get in the way?
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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #52 on: 28/12/2020 01:43:25 »
Quote from: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:28:25

I thought the Oxford vaccine is only 1 shot I've heard as the data is the best formula possible and that would make it so much quicker to get it into people's arms and away they go next one in
Nope moderna  andJohnson and Johnson are the one shot, the clear leaders.
Quote from: alancalverd on 27/12/2020 22:50:36
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
Note "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.
By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!
Quote from: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 19:27:14
So are you saying it won't happen then
By mid February I am saying they will still not have protected the populace. 500k into 30m is not far in 2 weeks. I doubt they will have protected them by July.
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Offline charles1948

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #53 on: 28/12/2020 02:21:27 »
One good thing has come out of all this - we now know that vaccines can developed much faster than previously thought.
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Offline Kryptid

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #54 on: 28/12/2020 03:14:23 »
Quote from: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:07:42
We all want our lives back to live normally

That didn't address my post.

Quote from: charles1948 on 28/12/2020 01:21:04
Do you find it difficult to reply to a particular post, because all the other posts get in the way?

The quote function is how to get around that problem.
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Offline Colin2B

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #55 on: 28/12/2020 08:14:22 »
Quote from: evan_au on 27/12/2020 09:13:01
Quote from: Glenballs
the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days
Which Oxford vaccine?

2. Or the one where they give you a half dose, followed by a full dose? (...which is claimed to be 90% effective, but hasn't had a big enough Phase 3 trial to prove it.)
New statements from oxford team appear to show they are going for option 2.
The government has ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine, with around 40 million expected to be available by the end of March. Assume phased rollout with final doses administered end April we should have 18m people protected by Oxford vaccine. Not sure what the details of other vaccines are, but unless the expected delivery of Oxford has changed there is a mismatch of publicity. See also:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/nhs-leaders-raise-concerns-pace-covid-vaccine-rollout
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #56 on: 28/12/2020 13:14:55 »
Quote from: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:07:42
We all want our lives back to live normally
I want to win the lottery, but it doesn't mean that I will.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #57 on: 28/12/2020 23:54:50 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 28/12/2020 01:43:25
By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!
I can't translate this into Earth-language but it seems to suggest incomprehension of terrestrial mathematics.

There are about 1.5 million over-85s in the UK, despite the government's best efforts to kill them. So 140 per 100,000 gives maybe 2100 positive COVID admissions of over-85's in WE6/12. There are 17 million in the 45 - 64 age group so 10 per 100,000 gives you 1700 admissions in that cohort for the same week. It is true that the elderly are more likely to die, but that represents a saving to the economy. It's the chronically sick people of working age who are a burden, paying no tax but filling acute NHS beds and collecting all sorts of benefits.

The ONS graph is bizarre because the cohort sampling intervals are all different and the "normalisation" factor "per 100,000" is pretty meaningless in view of the steep decline in numbers in each real cohort from the age of 65 onward - https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age. ONS seems to have chosen the numbers to make a pretty picture that doesn't actually tell you anything. 
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Offline Petrochemicals

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #58 on: 29/12/2020 00:45:44 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 28/12/2020 23:54:50
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 28/12/2020 01:43:25
By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!
I can't translate this into Earth-language but it seems to suggest incomprehension of terrestrial mathematics.
On the graph, there are about 30 times more admissions for over 50s. For them to be a minority yadyyadyyada?
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Offline evan_au

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Re: When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
« Reply #59 on: 29/12/2020 08:10:09 »
Quote
Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!
Maybe not "wiped out", but ebola and the 1918 Flu pandemic managed to kill about 30% of patients.
- That is still enough to decimate an economy and badly damage the society's morale.
- Smallpox was even worse in native populations with no immunity
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