[alancalverd]

When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drink

In time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.

Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.

[Glenballs]

When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drink

In time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.

Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.

Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closed

[alancalverd]

The vulnerable and prioritised people are (since the government stopped moving infectious patients into unprotected nursing  homes) no longer those most likely to become infected. Old folk like me have adapted to isolation and my front-line friends all have the relevant PPE and safe working practices. It's people in pubs, clubs and crowds who are most likely to infect one another.

Meanwhile the worldbeating vaccine program seems to be going in the same direction as the worldbeating track and trace program, with volunteers having to undergo Equality and Diversity and Fire Safety training before being allowed to stick a needle into your arm. I've just done the statutory E&D course which turned out to be 100% irrelevant to the job that required it. But it does mean that the person who saves your life won't irreparably compromise your psychological wellbeing by calling you "mate" or "love" as he/she/they does so*


* late edit - just reviewed my course notes. Nor will they assume that you are righthanded or even that you possess a left arm.  And they will warn you if the vaccine contains pig- or cow-derived products or was invented by an atheist.

[evan_au]

...why the virus... becomes virulent after 10 pm.

It's because as the evening goes on, the voices become louder, and any social distancing evaporates...

Even discounting this effect:
- If people stay for 6 hours instead of 1 hour, their exposure is 6 times higher (assuming the number of people is capped)
- If people stay for 6 hours instead of 1 hour, their exposure is 36 times higher (assuming the number of people is not capped)

I visited an art gallery today. After signing in, a sign at the door read "Please limit your visit to 30 minutes"  - admittedly, it was a pretty small art gallery, and numbers were capped, according to another sign at the door...

[Colin2B]

Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closed

Where do you get end Jan from?
The estimates are 22m on the priority list (ONS and Head of NHS)
Although there is a commitment to 2m vaccinations a week that level of vaccine availability won’t be until 2nd week in Jan.

Today Boris was reported from the Andrew Marr show:
“Mr Johnson said the government was "entirely reconciled to doing what it takes to get the virus down," and warned of a "tough period ahead".
He said increasing vaccination would provide a way out of restrictions and that he hoped "tens of millions" would be vaccinated in the next three months.”

That lines up with Sir Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, saying 22 million people should be vaccinated by the spring (late April), that is everyone aged 50 and over and all vulnerable people in the UK. Even limiting vaccine to 1st dose will take at least 10 weeks (@ 2m/week) = end March.
Age 50 is an important target as it is likely to be the median for hospital admissions and clearly some protection, even the limited single dose, should reduce the load on the health service, which is the main objective of this rollout.

The decision to lift restrictions will be a political one based on a reduction of R below 1, reduction in hospital admissions, and reduction in death rate.

[Petrochemicals]

When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drink

In time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.

Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.

Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closed

Scratch that. Tier 5 for us all from Wednesday midnight plus,

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18973486.sage-expert-warns-covid-vaccinations-unlikely-bring-herd-immunity-summer/

[alancalverd]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

[Glenballs]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

[Colin2B]

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

That’s not what he said.
Any relaxing of restrictions will, as we have said before, be a political decision. We hope any decision will take full account of the scientific advice, but past performance does not indicate that will necessarily happen.

[alancalverd]

Norman Schwarzkopf

was considered an exceptional leader by many biographers and was noted for his abilities as a military diplomat and in dealing with the press.

Before the invasion of Kuwait he was asked what to say in a press release, and when to release it. He said "When it's over, tell them who won".

Pity he isn't around anymore.

[Petrochemicals]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.

[Glenballs]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.

Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen

[Kryptid]

will this happen

I know you want answers, but all we can tell you is that we don't know yet. A lot can change between now and then.

[Glenballs]

will this happen

I know you want answers, but all we can tell you is that we don't know yet. A lot can change between now and then.

They have already done 1.3 million so they are well on the way, what could possibly go that wrong to stop them getting there, its going to happen

[Petrochemicals]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.

Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen

The statement will read something like

"we have vaccinated 7.5 million most vunerable peopl. They will receive their 2nd dose by May. Another 7. 5 million semi vunerable will receive their first dose by june. Now time for lockdown 4.

[Glenballs]

Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.

So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted

You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.

Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen

The statement will read something like

"we have vaccinated 7.5 million most vunerable peopl. They will receive their 2nd dose by May. Another 7. 5 million semi vunerable will receive their first dose by june. Now time for lockdown 4.

how do you know that, i 100% guarantee that they will hit this with days to spare

[alancalverd]

Simply vaccinating the most vulnerable will not justify lifting restrictions or significantly affect the infection rate. The most vulnerable are those least likely to infect others because they are already sequestered.

With about 1,300,000 known active carriers (and still rising) in the community, we can reasonably expect to see perhaps 4% of the population infected by the end of February. The next tranche of vaccinees will be in the over 60 group, who again are not significant sources of infection since they are less likely to travel or work even when restrictions are lifted. If you think about it, there are now 1,000,000 more new pensioners in the UK than there were when the epidemic began,  and
2,000,000 vaccine doses will be "wasted" each year because us old buggers die anyway!  So you need to deliver 4,000,000  doses in the first year to achieve very little economic impact, whilst the working population is being decimated by acute and chronic illness.

Current order is for up to 40,000,000 doses to be delivered by the end of March. If this target is reached, I will be able to go back to work in reasonable safety but I can't insist that any of my contractors (who are all under 60) should get back on the road. The question is whether I will have any contractors available  before August who are neither infected nor likely to become ill.   

[Ophiolite]

Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancing

I have lost count of the number of times you have asked the same basic question and the number of times you haven't liked the answers, so you've come back and asked again, hoping for a different answer. Here's the news: you can't get the answer you want.

Some probabilities: the virus will be with us indefinitely; the virus will periodically mutate significantly, requiring modified vaccines; the efficiacy of the vaccine (duration and effectiveness) may well be less than we hope for; local, even regional, lockdowns will be necessary to control outbreaks.
Because of this mask wearing and social distancing, albeit it on a slightly laxer scale, will become the new normal. Get used to it.

[Petrochemicals]

how do you know that, i 100% guarantee that they will hit this with days to spare

They themselves elves are admitting it will not be 2 shots each, offering only 50% protection. Its all down hill from there.

[vhfpmr]

Any organised government would have had an army of vaccinators recruited in the last 9 months, and poised on the starting blocks, syringe in hand on the day the vaccine arrived. Instead of that, our cabinet of world-beating imbeciles wait until the vaccine is standing on the shelf looking for an arm before they start recruiting. The latest this morning was that our network of pharmacists have said that they can administer 1,000,000 doses a week, but HMG have said no. You just couldn't make it up.

This will be an interesting graph to follow over the next few weeks:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&country=GBR~DEU~ITA~CHN~ISR~USA&region=World