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  4. What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
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What are the best answers for Corona statistics?

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #60 on: 02/01/2021 14:46:23 »
Nobody knows what the true figures for COVID deaths are in any country since "COVID death" is determined by local politics, not international science. The best estimate of attributable harm is the number of excess deaths since "week zero", which you define as the first week when, say, 100 attributed deaths were recorded, because COVID arrived in different countries at different times. You then have to add a phase factor to account for the fact that infection rates vary differently in different countries and it takes anything from 2 to 20 weeks to die from COVID-related disease. Finally, if you want to compare the effectiveness of public health measures, you need to factor in the population density, which is the primary determinant of infection rate of you do nothing.

The massive surge in infections caused by Thanksgiving idiocy in the USA is just beginning to reflect in the death stats, and as there is no treatment for COVID, we can reasonably assume that the lethality rate will be pretty much the same in all countries.
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #61 on: 02/01/2021 14:57:50 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 02/01/2021 14:46:23
Nobody knows what the true figures for COVID deaths are in any country since "COVID death" is determined by local politics, not international science. The best estimate of attributable harm is the number of excess deaths since "week zero", which you define as the first week when, say, 100 attributed deaths were recorded, because COVID arrived in different countries at different times. You then have to add a phase factor to account for the fact that infection rates vary differently in different countries and it takes anything from 2 to 20 weeks to die from COVID-related disease. Finally, if you want to compare the effectiveness of public health measures, you need to factor in the population density, which is the primary determinant of infection rate of you do nothing.

The massive surge in infections caused by Thanksgiving idiocy in the USA is just beginning to reflect in the death stats, and as there is no treatment for COVID, we can reasonably assume that the lethality rate will be pretty much the same in all countries.
Well, I can see your point about it being thanksgiving, but the uk will have the same with Christmas. I sort of agree that Trumps handling of the pandemic was dented by thanks giving, but personally it's pretty clear that as hospitals fill the pandemic is worse, this just happens to coincide with school attendance. Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk even with thanks giving accounted for.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #62 on: 02/01/2021 15:51:47 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 14:57:50
I sort of agree that Trumps handling of the pandemic was dented by thanks giving,
In what way?

Trump's handling of the crisis has been pretty uniformly bad.
So has Boris'.
The countries have pretty much the same deaths per million US 1074 vs UK 1096.
The USA has a lot more cases per million but, as Alan pointed out, that figure isn't reliable. (It might be worth noting that the UK has done more testing per million)

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #63 on: 02/01/2021 17:59:45 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 14:57:50
Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk
You keep saying that, but have failed to provide your definition of "better" as used on your planet, or any evidence that numerate speakers of idiomatic English would consider "better".
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Offline acsinuk

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #64 on: 02/01/2021 19:22:29 »
The covid crisis is effecting our childrens education but are keeping the schools open for health workers anyway.  So no problem for the government to advise people that primary and even some secondary education can be obtained at their childs normal school on a voluntary basis.  It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #65 on: 02/01/2021 19:28:36 »
Quote from: acsinuk on 02/01/2021 19:22:29
It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.

Are you assuming that all parents are epidemiologists, virologists and educational psychologists?
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Offline Kryptid

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #66 on: 02/01/2021 20:47:16 »
Quote from: acsinuk on 02/01/2021 19:22:29
It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.

Unfortunately, some parents are anti-vaxxers.
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #67 on: 02/01/2021 22:23:27 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 02/01/2021 17:59:45
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 14:57:50
Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk
You keep saying that, but have failed to provide your definition of "better" as used on your planet, or any evidence that numerate speakers of idiomatic English would consider "better".
Lower mortality rate, rational identification, more freedom, functioning economy.  Maybe you do not consider these better on your planet, but it may be planet hitler !
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #68 on: 02/01/2021 23:37:35 »
There being no treatment for what is pretty much the same disease affecting pretty much the same demographic, (a) what is your definition of "mortality rate" and (b) which source of data are you using to calculate it?
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #69 on: 03/01/2021 10:59:51 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
rational identification,
Would you like to explain what you think that means?

Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
more freedom,
In the country where you can be arrested for owning lab glassware.?
What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?

Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
functioning economy.
The function of the economy is to improve the lives of the people...
Neither the US nor the UK can really claim to be doing that.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #70 on: 03/01/2021 23:32:16 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 03/01/2021 10:59:51
What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?
1. Anyone can get to be president. GWBush and Delirium Trump have demonstrated that no actual ability is required.

2. The president can pardon any Republican, no matter how heinous or unconstitutional his crime.

That is total feedom. 
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #71 on: 04/01/2021 16:48:20 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 02/01/2021 23:37:35
There being no treatment for what is pretty much the same disease affecting pretty much the same demographic, (a) what is your definition of "mortality rate" and (b) which source of data are you using to calculate it?
Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
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Offline acsinuk

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #72 on: 04/01/2021 17:27:19 »
What will we do if the NHS runs out of beds? Well, treat the young healthy patients first whilst accelerating the vaccination program in that area as a priority.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #73 on: 04/01/2021 18:05:49 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/01/2021 16:48:20
Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
I.e. nothing to do with science. The UK government has decreed that a COVID death is one that occurs within 28 days of a positive diagnosis. So if you live 5 or 6 weeks, you don't count.

As has been pointed out many times in this forum, the only politics-free (i.e. believable) statistic is excess deaths, and that is only meaningful several months after a peak in infections.
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Offline alancalverd

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #74 on: 04/01/2021 18:08:28 »
Quote from: acsinuk on 04/01/2021 17:27:19
What will we do if the NHS runs out of beds?
let people die at home.

Quote
Well, treat the young healthy patients first whilst accelerating the vaccination program in that area as a priority.
There is no treatment. You can't be healthy and a patient. You can at best administer oxygen to people in distress.
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #75 on: 04/01/2021 18:40:56 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 04/01/2021 18:05:49
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/01/2021 16:48:20
Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
I.e. nothing to do with science. The UK government has decreed that a COVID death is one that occurs within 28 days of a positive diagnosis. So if you live 5 or 6 weeks, you don't count.
So Britain is significantly worse? I suppose you're right Alan, it just puts it into perspective how well Trump is doing.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #76 on: 04/01/2021 20:01:39 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 04/01/2021 18:40:56
puts it into perspective how well Trump is doing.
Yes... sort of.
Trump and Boris are doing about as "well" as eachother, which is to say they are both making a pig's ear of it.

BTw.. you seem to have missed these.

Quote from: Bored chemist on 03/01/2021 10:59:51
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
rational identification,
Would you like to explain what you think that means?

Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
more freedom,
In the country where you can be arrested for owning lab glassware.?
What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?

Quote from: Petrochemicals on 02/01/2021 22:23:27
functioning economy.
The function of the economy is to improve the lives of the people...
Neither the US nor the UK can really claim to be doing that.
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Offline evan_au

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #77 on: 04/01/2021 20:43:39 »
Quote from: OP
What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
I think the question is backwards.

Corona statistics are the best answers for willful ignorance and conspiracy theories.

Yesterday, Donald Trump tweeted
Quote from: Donald Trump
The number of cases and deaths of the China Virus is far exaggerated in the United States because of @CDCgov's ridiculous method of determination compared to other countries, many of whom report, purposely, very inacurately and low. "When in doubt, call it Covid." Fake News!
See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/01/03/trump-claims-covid-deaths-are-exaggerated-as-us-surpasses-350000/?sh=5a3e527137b6
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Offline evan_au

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #78 on: 04/01/2021 20:47:40 »
Incidentally, one way that excess deaths will underestimate COVID deaths is in the road toll.
- End-of year figures suggest that due to lockdowns and other travel restrictions, in 2020 Australia had its lowest road toll since about 1935...
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Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

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Re: What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
« Reply #79 on: 04/01/2021 21:13:07 »
Quote from: evan_au on 04/01/2021 20:47:40
Incidentally, one way that excess deaths will underestimate COVID deaths is in the road toll.
- End-of year figures suggest that due to lockdowns and other travel restrictions, in 2020 Australia had its lowest road toll since about 1935...
Well connected Evan, but I have to think the toll from road deaths will be dwarfed by increase suicide, cancer victims, brain hemmorage and heart attacks.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2018#:~:text=Statistics%20on%20reported%20road%20casualties,severities%2C%20a%20decrease%20of%206%25

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-leeds-55300747

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1378879/suicide-awareness-lily-arkwright-lockdown-restrictions-struggle/amp

www.thesun.co.uk/news/12933678/covid-lockdown-heart-attacks-strokes/amp/
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