[Bored chemist]

Either in a ferret Badger population, or some other critter somewhere else in China or somewhere in the world

And then one of the ferret badgers got on a plane to Wuhan, and the rest is history.

Afterall Fort Detrick is a military base, so any leak would effect the military first,

And it didn't.
An outbreak in a close community like that would have been spectacularly obvious.
It didn't happen.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Well against my better judgement.

Either in a ferret Badger population, or some other critter somewhere else in China or somewhere in the world

And then one of the ferret badgers got on a plane to Wuhan, and the rest is history.

You should write to the WHO, they might like this hypothesis of yours.

Afterall Fort Detrick is a military base, so any leak would effect the military first,

And it didn't.
An outbreak in a close community like that would have been spectacularly obvious.
It didn't happen.

Someone is forgetting that under the laboratory leak hypothesis,  what escaped the Lab wasn't Covid 19, but another Corona virus that evolved into Covid 19 after it escaped.

Anyone sick with a Corona virus that escaped wouldn't have Covid 19, as covid 19 would be a later evolution.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

There is no evidence of the Corona Virus that evolved into covid19, in the surrounding area of wuhan.

How about a post on Chinese social media at the end of December 2019, mentioning a lot of patients with a mysterious respiratory disease?
- That is pretty clear evidence that it first reached epidemic contagiousness in the big city of Wuhan.
- The WHO team found evidence of 13 RNA variants circulating in Wuhan from early RNA sequences they were able to obtain. That points to a spillover that had been circulating for a couple of months (in humans and/or animals).

I agree that this evidence does not show in which geographical region the original spillover happened
- But then you try to claim that this same evidence shows that Fort Detrick was the source!

Evan, some people have been brainwashed into thinking that the USA is the source of all evil.

"The concept of being anti American is only a concept that exists in totalitarian states" Noam Chomsky  a few minutes in.

So they think that Covid-19 must have a US origin, such as Fort Detrick.

You can't argue with such people.  They won't accept anything you say.

Charles its simply one hypothesis, and a valid one. Fort Detrick had a leak FACT,  Fort Detrick was doing gain of function research into Bat Corona virus' FACT.
Fort Detrick was Closed in mid July 2019 due to the Leaks FACT. And there was an Outbreak of a Respiratory infections in a nursing home relatively near by Two weeks before the Base was closed.

The hypothesis, states maybe a Corona virus escaped from fort Detrick and over the next 3 to 4 months evolved into covid 19. Before coming to wuhan at the wuhan military games that October 3 months later.

Another leak hypothesis cites the wuhan lab as the source.

[Bored chemist]

Someone is forgetting that under the laboratory leak hypothesis, 

No.
I'm ignoring it; just like I'm ignoring the "unicorns did it " hypothesis, and for much the same reason.
There is no reason to imagine that it is true.

Anyone sick with a Corona virus that escaped wouldn't have Covid 19

So, you finally recognise that covid19 didn't escape from a lab.
See above.

However, at some point there was a first covid19 virus- and it was probably in some non-human animal.

Then it spread to some human - plausibly in a Wuhan market.
And then it spread very rapidly through a population who had no immunity and no idea that there was an outbreak.
So it must have multiplied and spread very fast.

So, we have a pretty good idea when and where it started.
It started not long before, and not far from, the first place we noticed it.

[Bored chemist]

Fort Detrick had a leak FACT, 

So did Pirbright, but it wasn't covid.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Someone is forgetting that under the laboratory leak hypothesis, 

No.
I'm ignoring it;

Highly scientific approach.

Anyone sick with a Corona virus that escaped wouldn't have Covid 19

So, you finally recognise that covid19 didn't escape from a lab.
See above.

No mr 'not a virologist' the lab leak hypothesis looks for a corona virus that escaped and evolved into Covid19 one hypothesis.

Another laboratory leak hypothesis it that the Laboratory had developed covid19 as a hybrid chimera that either escaped or was released intentionally. 

Two different hypotheses

However, at some point there was a first covid19 virus- and it was probably in some non-human animal.

Could also have evolved in a human population somewhere.

Then it spread to some human - plausibly in a Wuhan market.
And then it spread very rapidly through a population who had no immunity and no idea that there was an outbreak.
So it must have multiplied and spread very fast.

So, we have a pretty good idea when and where it started..

No you don't,  you can at best say when the first covid 19 patient 0 was. How long it took for the original Corona Virus that became covid 19, to evolve we dont know, could have been months or even years.
We don't know the what, where, when or how, of the intermediary that first caught the Corona virus that evolved into covid19.

[Petrochemicals]

Charles its simply one hypothesis, and a valid one. Fort Detrick had a leak FACT,  Fort Detrick was doing gain of function research into Bat Corona virus' FACT.
Fort Detrick was Closed in mid July 2019 due to the Leaks FACT. And there was an Outbreak of a Respiratory infections in a nursing home relatively near by Two weeks before the Base was closed.

The hypothesis, states maybe a Corona virus escaped from fort Detrick and over the next 3 to 4 months evolved into covid 19. Before coming to wuhan at the wuhan military games that October 3 months later.

Too true, if wre looking at the spread of unspecified respiratory syndrome throughout the continental United States in 2019, the swift covert efforts of the US government and European allies to control and suppress it and then the purpousful diversion the CIA created by spreading it to China in the autumn, he suppressed death toll and the celebrity obituaries that where written off as something else.

As this is new theories, now find the evidence to support it. hybrid chimera, a Zebricorn.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Charles its simply one hypothesis, and a valid one. Fort Detrick had a leak FACT,  Fort Detrick was doing gain of function research into Bat Corona virus' FACT.
Fort Detrick was Closed in mid July 2019 due to the Leaks FACT. And there was an Outbreak of a Respiratory infections in a nursing home relatively near by Two weeks before the Base was closed.

The hypothesis, states maybe a Corona virus escaped from fort Detrick and over the next 3 to 4 months evolved into covid 19. Before coming to wuhan at the wuhan military games that October 3 months later.

Too true, if wre looking at the spread of unspecified respiratory syndrome throughout the continental United States in 2019, the swift covert efforts of the US government and European allies to control and suppress it and then the purpousful diversion the CIA created by spreading it to China in the autumn, he suppressed death toll and the celebrity obituaries that where written off as something else.

As this is new theories, now find the evidence to support it. hybrid chimera, a Zebricorn.

If that is what happened,  it was Trump that would have over seen it. I was slightly disturbed by Trump continually calling it the China virus, seemed to me to be a mud slinging exercise,  as I suggested before the same endeavour Hilary Clinton engaged in with Russia Gate. Blame others for your faults as a cover.

Could very well be the case, that covid is the Trump virus.

If it was proven I wonder if it would hamper his reelection chances for 2024? Do you think MAGA would care? I suppose some would.

[Petrochemicals]

If that is what happened,  it was Trump that would have over seen it. I was slightly disturbed by Trump continually calling it the China virus, seemed to me to be a mud slinging exercise,  as I suggested before the same endeavour Hilary Clinton engaged in with Russia Gate. Blame others for your faults as a cover.

Could very well be the case, that covid is the Trump virus.

If it was proven I wonder if it would hamper his reelection chances for 2024? Do you think MAGA would care? I suppose some would.

There is evidence to the contrary, myself for example, I did not witness any surgical mask wearing Secret service operatives in the autumn or winter of 2019. I cannot remember the hospitals being overstreched. I do not remember a spike in illness or mortality in the retired peoples of my parents friends. So calculations of R rate and source cannot come from an outbreak in the populace in the USA in 2019 in not viable.

[Bored chemist]

Highly scientific approach.

Ignoring false "information" is indeed highly scientific.

Could also have evolved in a human population somewhere.

Not without them noticing.

Why do you insist on suggesting that these people are stupid?

How long it took for the original Corona Virus that became covid 19, to evolve we dont know, could have been months or even years.

And nobody cares.
The covid 19 virus causing a pandemic is what we are looking at in this thread.
Not its evolutionary  ancestors.
And, as soon as it evolved into covid19 it would have been noticed.
So we know that covid evolved near where the first outbreak was.

No mr 'not a virologist' the lab leak hypothesis looks for a corona virus that escaped and evolved into Covid19 one hypothesis.

Another laboratory leak hypothesis it that the Laboratory had developed covid19 as a hybrid chimera that either escaped or was released intentionally. 

Two different hypotheses

The points remain Mr "Never actually worked in science" that neither hypothesis is plausible, nor do they have supporting evidence.
But one of those suggestions is irrelevant anyway.
If the virus that left the lab wasn't covid then covid evolved outside the lab, in some animal or other; and that's what the grown-ups have been saying all along.

The other hypothesis is more or less impossible because nobody would be doing that sort of work.
.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Highly scientific approach.

Ignoring false "information" is indeed highly scientific.

Could also have evolved in a human population somewhere.

Not without them noticing.

Why do you insist on suggesting that these people are stupid?

How long it took for the original Corona Virus that became covid 19, to evolve we dont know, could have been months or even years.

And nobody cares.
The covid 19 virus causing a pandemic is what we are looking at in this thread.
Not its evolutionary  ancestors.
And, as soon as it evolved into covid19 it would have been noticed.
So we know that covid evolved near where the first outbreak was.

No mr 'not a virologist' the lab leak hypothesis looks for a corona virus that escaped and evolved into Covid19 one hypothesis.

Another laboratory leak hypothesis it that the Laboratory had developed covid19 as a hybrid chimera that either escaped or was released intentionally.

Two different hypotheses

The points remain Mr "Never actually worked in science" that neither hypothesis is plausible, nor do they have supporting evidence.
But one of those suggestions is irrelevant anyway.
If the virus that left the lab wasn't covid then covid evolved outside the lab, in some animal or other; and that's what the grown-ups have been saying all along.

The other hypothesis is more or less impossible because nobody would be doing that sort of work.
.

As always you post nonsense and I'm not replying to it.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

If that is what happened,  it was Trump that would have over seen it. I was slightly disturbed by Trump continually calling it the China virus, seemed to me to be a mud slinging exercise,  as I suggested before the same endeavour Hilary Clinton engaged in with Russia Gate. Blame others for your faults as a cover.

Could very well be the case, that covid is the Trump virus.

If it was proven I wonder if it would hamper his reelection chances for 2024? Do you think MAGA would care? I suppose some would.

There is evidence to the contrary, myself for example, I did not witness any surgical mask wearing Secret service operatives in the autumn or winter of 2019.

Know many do you? If you dont how do you know?

There was the a Corona virus pandemic drill ran towards the end of 2019, that could have been organised as soon as they realised a Corona virus had escaped as a means of assessing damage control, and potential opportunities.

I cannot remember the hospitals being overstreched. I do not remember a spike in illness or mortality in the retired peoples of my parents friends.

You're forgetting that what escaped might  not have been covid19 but a different Corona virus that after a few months free evolves into covid 19, what ever that virus was, we cant without finding it know what it would have done to the people it infected.

So calculations of R rate and source cannot come from an outbreak in the populace in the USA in 2019 in not viable.

As above. You cant know the R0 for the virus either. It would be a different virus than covid.

Still whatever the ancestor of Covid was, it probably wasnt very deadly, we would have noticed critters dying from a new virus, so I would suggest the ancestor probably had a high R0 but all that caught it like the majority with covid19 had no symptoms, then a mutation occurred that made it more deadly. That would be for both laboratory escape or zoological origin.  The only hypothesis that offers a different beginning is going to be a hybrid chirmera made in a laboratory and released intentionally or by accident and only because the evolution happened in the laboratory, as a gain of function.

Covid is highly adapted to transmission in humans and that suggests a human population that it evolved in, but it's also highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,  which is suggestive of a laboratory gain of function virus more then a virus that evolved in nature.

Applying  Occam's razor, a laboratory release seems most likley. Especially when you consider that gain of function research is geared towards human infection as a means to protect people.

[Kryptid]

but it's also highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,  which is suggestive of a laboratory gain of function virus more then a virus that evolved in nature.

How?

Applying  Occam's razor, a laboratory release seems most likley.

Except the lab-release explanation requires a cover-up, so it's not exactly favored by Occam's razor.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

but it's also highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,  which is suggestive of a laboratory gain of function virus more then a virus that evolved in nature.

How?

You'll have to be clearer.

Applying  Occam's razor, a laboratory release seems most likley.

Except the lab-release explanation requires a cover-up, so it's not exactly favored by Occam's razor.

A cover up is after the fact. Not related to where the Virus came from.

[Petrochemicals]

Applying  Occam's razor, a laboratory release seems most likley. Especially when you consider that gain of function research is geared towards human infection as a means to protect people.

Sure is, them zebracorns in the US, or them horses in wuhan.

You are now telling me the evidence is inadmissible. Find some that agrees with you. We know the R rate of visible cases, plus they know roughly by now the R rate of the general populace with invisible cases thrown in.

It could have been released into the community by a Maryland lab, it could have been aliens, it could be a trick of a malignant demon, or it could be Randy Marsh and Micky Mouse on a bender in China.

They are all just as creditable in the land of possibility. Sinece is there to narrow the possibilities

[Bored chemist]

For Jolly's benefit.

How?

in this context means
In what way is it "  highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,"?

[Bored chemist]

As always you post nonsense and I'm not replying to it.

Does anyone but Jolly think I have been posting nonsense here?

[Kryptid]

In what way is it "  highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,"?

As well as, "How is that evidence that it is lab-made"?

A cover up is after the fact.

It's an essential part of the scenario you posit. Without evidence of a cover-up, another unevidenced claim is tacked on to your explanation. That hurts its plausibility.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Applying  Occam's razor, a laboratory release seems most likley. Especially when you consider that gain of function research is geared towards human infection as a means to protect people.

Sure is, them zebracorns in the US, or them horses in wuhan.

You are now telling me the evidence is inadmissible.

What evidence?
We don't have the ancestor of Covid19, we dont know in which intermediary it was in where evolved into Covid 19. We don't know where or when that happened, or how long it took to evolve.

All we have are the genetic markers in covid that give clues to its origin. It's highly adapted to human infection also good at infecting mink, and ferrets. But covid appears to be more adapted to human infection then any other animal. And that points to a human population somewhere as the intermediary or to a laboratory chimera designed to infect humans as a gain of function.

Find some that agrees with you.

I'm building a hypothesis from the information we have, not grabbing a hypothesis out of the air then looking for data to support it,  the latter is bad science. Clues from the genetics of the virus lead to certain hypotheses.

We know the R rate of visible cases, plus they know roughly by now the R rate of the general populace with invisible cases thrown in.

Of covid19 not its ancestors. The best we can do with the R0 and incubation period is work out a time frame for when patent 0 was.

It could have been released into the community by a Maryland lab, it could have been aliens, it could be a trick of a malignant demon, or it could be Randy Marsh and Micky Mouse on a bender in China.

"Could" have been many things but we are looking at likley and more probable/credible sources.

They are all just as creditable in the land of possibility. Sinece is there to narrow the possibilities

Exactly.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

In what way is it "  highly adapted to indoor transmission and not outdoor transmission,"?

As well as, "How is that evidence that it is lab-made"?

Generally because Laboratories are indoors, and if as part of gain of function research they were housing sick animals next to healthy ones, then taking any that get sick and repeating the process as a means to increase the virus' transmission as a part of that gain of function research.
It's all a process that takes place indoors, where the virus wouldn't adapt to contend with the outdoor environment. 

There is evidence that sunlight destroys covid19, showing that it must have evolved either in a nocturnal critter, or in an environment without sunlight,  a laboratory with electrical lighting also would qualify.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-sunlight-coronavirus-quickly-scientists.html

A cover up is after the fact.

It's an essential part of the scenario you posit. Without evidence of a cover-up, another unevidenced claim is tacked on to your explanation. That hurts its plausibility.

A cover up isnt involved in the development of the virus, in anyway, it's only involved in a group of people responsible trying to hide their involvement later. Important to note as Bret Weinstein has that the laboratory in Wuhan destroyed data bases, hid and didnt share their note books. The Laboratory in wuhan has engaged in a cover up of some type. What evidence they were destroying we dont know however.