[evan_au]

there should be an international agreement that biological warfare be banned

The Biological Weapons Convention came into force in 1975.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention

a bio weapons laboratory that was studying bat Corona viruses had a leak

How about bats that were suffering from bat viruses had a leak?
- It wouldn't be the first time, see SARS, MERS and Hendra
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henipavirus

[Bored chemist]

Its only on the wrong end if Wuhan is the source of the outbreak, try and keep up.

No.
It's the wrong end of the planet because Wuhan is where the virus actually showed up. The virus had to get there, and it hasn't got legs.

Which is why this research should be stopped, there should be an international agreement that biological warfare be banned,

There is, and has been for decades:

try and keep up.

All I ask for, an investigation, due to the circumstantial evidence that a bio weapons laboratory that was studying bat Corona viruses had a leak.

And then the virus went to China, to a city with bats infected with similar viruses.

You're stuck on the theory wuhan is the sourse.

It's not a "theory", it's an observation.
This is a massively infectious virus. It can't "lie low" anywhere.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

there should be an international agreement that biological warfare be banned

The Biological Weapons Convention came into force in 1975.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention

Yet atleast 15 counties all have bio weapons laboratories and are still developing biological warfare agents.
They are all therefore acting either criminally or are using loop-Holes that have to be closed.

a bio weapons laboratory that was studying bat Corona viruses had a leak

How about bats that were suffering from bat viruses had a leak?
- It wouldn't be the first time, see SARS, MERS and Hendra
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henipavirus

No one suggested it wasnt a possibility,  but when some are claiming they have seen evidence it did come from a laboratory and some virologists also claim it appears man made, that is also a possibility.

[Bored chemist]

Jolly; you really need to explain something if you want your idea to be taken seriously.
Covid is known to be a very infectious disease with a high mortality- particularly among the elderly.
If it was "released" anywhere it would  start an outbreak- we know this because outbreaks happened as a consequence of people carrying the disease to places where it was not  previously present.

So, if it was "somewhere else" before it was in Wuhan, how come that place didn't have an outbreak and an epidemic before Wuhan?

Until you can explain why the virus didn't infect people, your ideas have no credibility whatsoever.

[Bored chemist]

Yet atleast 15 counties all have bio weapons laboratories and are still developing biological warfare agents.

Do you have proof of that?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Yet atleast 15 counties all have bio weapons laboratories and are still developing biological warfare agents.

Do you have proof of that?

On my last check 15 countries had biological weapons labs,

Obviously Wuhan in China, Fort Detrick in America, Porton Down in Britian.

"It is believed that at least six countries could have an ongoing bioweapons program. These include: Iraq, Iran, Libya, China, Russia and North Korea."
https://www.wionews.com/science/what-are-biological-weapons-here-is-a-list-of-countries-that-possess-them-330033

I believe France also. 

I'll see if I can find the old article I read regarding exactly which countries are still engaged it was 15 tho

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Jolly; you really need to explain something if you want your idea to be taken seriously.
Covid is known to be a very infectious disease with a high mortality- particularly among the elderly.
If it was "released" anywhere it would  start an outbreak- we know this because outbreaks happened as a consequence of people carrying the disease to places where it was not  previously present.

So, if it was "somewhere else" before it was in Wuhan, how come that place didn't have an outbreak and an epidemic before Wuhan?

Until you can explain why the virus didn't infect people, your ideas have no credibility whatsoever.

 Again you are ignoring that 80% of people infected show mild to no symptoms. Deaths only Occur with the elderly save a very low percentage who are younger but have underlying conditions.

As stated before Covid was in China atleast 2 months before they isolated it.

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for atleast a month.

For it to have originated in America, it would only have had to spread unnoticed for 3 months, with a one month incubation that's 2 months with 80% showing mild to no symptoms and only the venerable dying, as America has millions without health care, many infected with serious symptoms would not even see a doctor,  and those that did may well have been misdiagnosed as Flu, Covid didnt exist until China identified it in the December,  and as we know red cross workers had caught covid at some time before December when they had routine blood tests.

Did they catch it 3 months earlier? We dont know. could they have?certianly if it came from fort Detrick.

Further more the R0 for covid is between 1.4 and 2.5.

Hence if patient 0 was in America it would.take a rather long time to spread amoung the population.

So person infecting another 1 or 2 people then incubation period of a minimum of 2 weeks, that's a doubling of numbers every fortnight, after 3 months you'd go from 1 person infected to 64 people in 3 months.

And we know arround 106 red cross workers had antibodies for covid in December 2019

So if patient 0 was in America in June then by September you would only have 64 people infected.

Your suggestion they'd notice mass pandemic of deaths is total nonsense.

64 in September
128 mid October
256 at the end of October
512 mid November
1024 at the end of November
2048 mid December
4096 at the end of December

We know 106 red cross workers from 9 different states has antibodies in December.

To get 106 people infected takes with the RO of covid atleast 3 months.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Jolly; you really need to explain something if you want your idea to be taken seriously.
Covid is known to be a very infectious disease with a high mortality- particularly among the elderly.
If it was "released" anywhere it would  start an outbreak- we know this because outbreaks happened as a consequence of people carrying the disease to places where it was not  previously present.

So, if it was "somewhere else" before it was in Wuhan, how come that place didn't have an outbreak and an epidemic before Wuhan?

Until you can explain why the virus didn't infect people, your ideas have no credibility whatsoever.

 Again you are ignoring that 80% of people infected show mild to no symptoms. Deaths only Occur with the elderly save a very low percentage who are younger but have underlying conditions.

As stated before Covid was in China atleast 2 months before they isolated it.

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for atleast a month.

For it to have originated in America, it would only have had to spread unnoticed for 3 months, with a one month incubation that's 2 months with 80% showing mild to no symptoms and only the venerable dying, as America has millions without health care, many infected with serious symptoms would not even see a doctor,  and those that did may well have been misdiagnosed as Flu, Covid didnt exist until China identified it in the December,  and as we know red cross workers had caught covid at some time before December when they had routine blood tests.

Did they catch it 3 months earlier? We dont know. could they have?certianly if it came from fort Detrick.

Further more the R0 for covid is between 1.4 and 2.5.

Hence if patient 0 was in America it would.take a rather long time to spread amoung the population.

So person infecting another 1 or 2 people then incubation period of a minimum of 2 weeks, that's a doubling of numbers every fortnight, after 3 months you'd go from 1 person infected to 64 people in 3 months.

And we know arround 106 red cross workers had antibodies for covid in December 2019

So if patient 0 was in America in June then by September you would only have 64 people infected.

Your suggestion they'd notice mass pandemic of deaths is total nonsense.

64 in September
128 mid October
256 at the end of October
512 mid November
1024 at the end of November
2048 mid December
4096 at the end of December

We know 106 red cross workers from 9 different states has antibodies in December.

To get 106 people infected takes with the RO of covid atleast 3 months.

Let's put this together with the samples of covid found in Spain in March.

And lets assume the old people home that had a respiratory out break, that the virus travelled naturally to the location from fort Detrick, so let's assume no one working at fort Detrick had family members at the old peoples home.

So with a transmission R0 of between 1.4 and 2.5 you expect a doubling every 2 weeks, and in the surround area from patent 0.

Takes 3 months to get to 64 people infected from the initial patient 0.

The outbreak in the old peoples home happened at the end of june.

Pushing back 3 months gives April. Pushing back 4 gives March and 5 months would be February.

So if someone did have covid in Spain in March 2019 and fort Detrick was the source for patient 0 at a minimum you would have to have February as the start.

So following that speculative line, patient 0 in February.

February, March and April at the end of which you would have 64 people infected given the RO and one of them having travelled to Spain in March.

64 people in April
128 mid may
256 at the end of may
512 mid june
1024 at the end of June(when the infection in the old peoples home happened)

2048 mid July
4096 at the end of July

8192 mid August.(but not only in America, where ever the infected people travelled its 8192 across the world)

16,384 end of August-world wide total
32,768 mid September
65,000 end of September
131,072 mid October
262.144 end of October world wide when China noticed people with respiratory infections
524,288 mid November
1,048,576 hits one million world wide total infections at the end of November.
2,097,152 mid December.
4,194,304 new year 2020 world wide infected total.

So with covid RO it would take

Arround 11 months to get to from patient 0 to get to 4 million infected world wide.

We see big numbers in China at this time, also in Iran and itialy predominantly, so that 4 million infected needs to be devided up with that in mind.

All a question of who travelled where.

Means if that happened,  Fort Detrick would have been realising material for arround 5 months unnoticed.

Looking at the death rate quote
"This table is for entire populations, and does not reflect the differences in mortality rates relative to different age groups. For example, in the United States the case fatality rate is 0.003%, 0.02%; 0.5% and 5.4% for the age groups 0–19, 20–49, 50–69, and 70 or over, respectively."

The table gives an average of about 2%.

So what is 0.003% of 4 million?

At 0.5% its 20,000 at 0.25% its 10,000 At 0.125% its 5000 at 0.0625% it's  2,500, at 0.03123% its 1,250. And 0.03% Still way over 0.003%

So with 4 million infected world wide at 0.03% death rate you get 1,250 deaths, world wide low end figure and around 40,000 high end world wide.

Let's devide it between the two. 

So a breakdown of the 4 million infected world wide would be around
20,000- Deaths
3.2 million Asymptomatic or with mild symptoms
780,000 with more severe symptoms.

In the begining of January end of December with patient 0 being in February.

Anyone know the world wide death toll for covid 19 in January 2020?

[set fair]

Try Googling R0 doubling time. I found this one https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-doubling-time-dots-and-95-CI-vertical-lines-as-a-function-of_fig5_258956572

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Try Googling R0 doubling time. I found this one https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-doubling-time-dots-and-95-CI-vertical-lines-as-a-function-of_fig5_258956572

Thanks for the link

This article https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/25/global-death-toll-coronavirus-passes-20000-12457745/

Global deaths hit 20,000 in March. That's 2 months later, pushing in my numbers, patient 0 to April 2019.

Of course the numbers go up with the elderly,  hence the virus could spread and miss them for a time, and deaths may well have been misdiagnosed at the beginning of the pandemic.

Hence that 20,000 in March is known to have died of, with the people they didnt record dying and not being listed as covid, the 20,000 number would have been sooner. Ummm 2 months sooner?

Split the difference so one month sooner,  that's 20,000 deaths in February with some misdiagnosis. And patient 0 in March. Exactly when they found samples in Spanish sewage.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Try Googling R0 doubling time. I found this one https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-doubling-time-dots-and-95-CI-vertical-lines-as-a-function-of_fig5_258956572

Thanks for the link

This article https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/25/global-death-toll-coronavirus-passes-20000-12457745/

Global deaths hit 20,000 in March. That's 2 months later, pushing in my numbers, patient 0 to April 2019.

Of course the numbers go up with the elderly,  hence the virus could spread and miss them for a time, and deaths may well have been misdiagnosed at the beginning of the pandemic.

Hence that 20,000 in March is known to have died of, with the people they didnt record dying and not being listed as covid, the 20,000 number would have been sooner. Ummm 2 months sooner?

Split the difference so one month sooner,  that's 20,000 deaths in February with some misdiagnosis. And patient 0 in March. Exactly when they found samples in Spanish sewage.

So if fort Detrick is the source of the pandemic it would mean an accidental leak in March, with someone travelling directly to Spain.

Or it's an intentional release in Spain in March.

Umm the new spainsh flu, very clever.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Try Googling R0 doubling time. I found this one https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-doubling-time-dots-and-95-CI-vertical-lines-as-a-function-of_fig5_258956572

This is a nice site from oxford university.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Still with regards to the R0 we know its between 1.4 and 2.5.

There is in incubation period of up to a month, but it's all relative to how much viral load a person receives when they first come into contact with Covid, the lower the load the longer the incubation period.

Averaging out to a doubling every two weeks should give a result that takes in both the low and high ends.

By my calculations its patient 0 to 16 million infections in 365 days, takes a year. 11 months is 4 million, the fortnightly doubling brings an explosion in the last month of the year, of an added 12 million infections.

[set fair]

At an R0 of 1.5 the doubling rate is 4 days. If the number of new cases in mid september were 1 per day then by early december there would be a million new cases per day. You need a different reason for the cases not to show. You also need to explain why Maryland wasn't an early center of disease.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

At an R0 of 1.5 the doubling rate is 4 days. If the number of new cases in mid september were 1 per day then by early december there would be a million new cases per day. You need a different reason for the cases not to show. You also need to explain why Maryland wasn't an early center of disease.

You're missing the incubation period,  which can take upto a month,  where people have covid in their body but it is only in a small viral amount, as the infection spreads in their body and becomes greater they start to become infectious/contagious. 

The incubation period is between 1 day and a month. So I set at 2 weeks.

From when a person comes into contact with the virus and when  they start to transmit the virus themselves isnt instantaneous,  and is very dependent of the viral load they recieve.

So setting a 2 week incubation gives a 2 week doubling.

Certianly some will become contagious sooner and others later, the choice of 2 weeks balances out the numbers at an average.

[Petrochemicals]

At an R0 of 1.5 the doubling rate is 4 days. If the number of new cases in mid september were 1 per day then by early december there would be a million new cases per day. You need a different reason for the cases not to show. You also need to explain why Maryland wasn't an early center of disease.

The actual period for Corona virus transmission is 4 days from contact, with the standardised non controlled reproduction rate of 3 in wuhan in 2 months starting from one you would havenewly infected number of 4.75 million, and a total case count of around 9 million, another 4 days and that rises to around the 25 million mark.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

At an R0 of 1.5 the doubling rate is 4 days. If the number of new cases in mid september were 1 per day then by early december there would be a million new cases per day. You need a different reason for the cases not to show. You also need to explain why Maryland wasn't an early center of disease.

The actual period for Corona virus transmission is 4 days from contact, with the standardised non controlled reproduction rate of 3 in wuhan in 2 months starting from one you would havenewly infected number of 4.75 million, and a total case count of around 9 million, another 4 days and that rises to around the 25 million mark.

Ok where is the data?

People can only transit once infected in the throat or mouth, someone with an infection on the eyes, will take time for the virus to present in the throat area. Same with someone who catches the virus by touching something and then rubbing their eyes.

"Currently, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Trusted Source, the incubation period for the novel coronavirus is somewhere between 2 to 14 days after exposure"
https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#incubation-period

Other studies have shown upto a month. So your claim of 4 days is misleading.

As.we see here
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986663/Incubation-period-new-coronavirus-long-24-DAYS-expert-claims.html

A 24 day incubation period.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

At an R0 of 1.5 the doubling rate is 4 days. If the number of new cases in mid september were 1 per day then by early december there would be a million new cases per day. You need a different reason for the cases not to show. You also need to explain why Maryland wasn't an early center of disease.

The actual period for Corona virus transmission is 4 days from contact, with the standardised non controlled reproduction rate of 3 in wuhan in 2 months starting from one you would havenewly infected number of 4.75 million, and a total case count of around 9 million, another 4 days and that rises to around the 25 million mark.

Ok where is the data?

People can only transit once infected in the throat or mouth, someone with an infection on the eyes, will take time for the virus to present in the throat area. Same with someone who catches the virus by touching something and then rubbing their eyes.

"Currently, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Trusted Source, the incubation period for the novel coronavirus is somewhere between 2 to 14 days after exposure"
https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#incubation-period

Other studies have shown upto a month. So your claim of 4 days is misleading.

As.we see here
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986663/Incubation-period-new-coronavirus-long-24-DAYS-expert-claims.html

A 24 day incubation period.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

27 days as listed above.

"However, a case with an incubation period of 27 days has been reported by Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22"

So that's 27 days from first contact to becoming contagious. 

No wonder 1 month lock downs achieved nothing.

To cover a month incubation period and
Dr. Abdulbaaqee explained. "Those with moderate to severe symptoms may be infectious 20 days following symptom onset."

You need a minimum of 7 weeks for lockdown to be successful.

Still lock downs wont completely stop transmission, and anyone contracting half way though can potentially become contagious after the lock down has finished.

With everyone wearing masks, viral loads people receive are lessened but with a lower viral load the incubation period is increased.

Hence with an R0 of two setting  a 2 week doubling rate is fine.

[Bored chemist]

Yet atleast 15 counties all have bio weapons laboratories and are still developing biological warfare agents.

"It is believed that at least six countries could have an ongoing bioweapons program. These include: Iraq, Iran, Libya, China, Russia and North Korea."
https://www.wionews.com/science/what-are-biological-weapons-here-is-a-list-of-countries-that-possess-them-330033

I believe France also. 

So you think 7 is he same as 15.


Why do you post this nonsense?

 Again you are ignoring that 80% of people infected show mild to no symptoms. Deaths only Occur with the elderly save a very low percentage who are younger but have underlying conditions.

I'm not ignoring that.
I'm just pointing out that ,  if there was a plague developing in Spain, they would have spotted it- even if it mainly affected the elderly: just like they noticed in China.

And you keep trying to ignore this.
But it's even stupider than that. Once the outbreak in China was well underway and the Chinese had stopped lying to the West about it, they had a disaster.

But, if the virus started somewhere else then it would have had a "head start" on the Chinese outbreak.
But that simply didn't happen.

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for at least a month.

That's just not true, either historically, or mathematically.
It did not take a month for cases in the UK to turn into outbreaks.
With an R value of about 3 and a typical time from infection to contagion of a few days you get an explosive growth within a month.
Call it 4 days and, even if you ignore delayed cases, in a month you get 3^7.5 cases.
If 3700 people all suddenly get sick, the healthcare system will notice.

The things that makes the difference is not "it might take up to a month to show up" because, in that month they will infect any people in whom it will show up faster and those people in turn will infect others.

So, by focussing on "up to a month" you are missing the "yes, but almost always faster".

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for atleast a month.

For it to have originated in America, it would only have had to spread unnoticed for 3 months,

So, based on your misunderstanding of "Slowest" vs "fastest" you think it can hide for a month, But then you say well if it can hide for a month then it can hide for 3 months.
That's absurd.
The only way a virus can hide is not to infect people and, if it did that, it would die out
In 3 months you would run out of people to infect. The numbers (3^22) say about 31 billion cases.
In reality its everyone who isn't on an isolated island.

Exactly when they found samples in Spanish sewage.

If the virus was in sewage in March then it must have been in people in March.
So why didn't it cause an outbreak?

It's just silly to say "it was in the sewers" because the testing isn't good enough to confirm that

"Currently, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Trusted Source, the incubation period for the novel coronavirus is somewhere between 2 to 14 days after exposure"
https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#incubation-period

Other studies have shown upto a month. So your claim of 4 days is misleading.

Not really.
4 days is a fair average.
Your insistence that only the "a month" is relevant is absurd.


You don't estimate the spread an epidemic based on the slowest bugs.
Just because Jack might take a month to get it, that doesn't stop John and Jill spreading it within the week (typically in about 4 days)

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Yet atleast 15 counties all have bio weapons laboratories and are still developing biological warfare agents.

"It is believed that at least six countries could have an ongoing bioweapons program. These include: Iraq, Iran, Libya, China, Russia and North Korea."
https://www.wionews.com/science/what-are-biological-weapons-here-is-a-list-of-countries-that-possess-them-330033

I believe France also.

So you think 7 is he same as 15.


Why do you post this nonsense?

No I think 7 is more then 0 as the law requires.

Why do you ignore what is actually said and keep on trolling.

Again you are ignoring that 80% of people infected show mild to no symptoms. Deaths only Occur with the elderly save a very low percentage who are younger but have underlying conditions.

I'm not ignoring that.
I'm just pointing out that ,  if there was a plague developing in Spain, they would have spotted it- even if it mainly affected the elderly: just like they noticed in China.

And you keep trying to ignore this.
But it's even stupider than that. Once the outbreak in China was well underway and the Chinese had stopped lying to the West about it, they had a disaster.

But, if the virus started somewhere else then it would have had a "head start" on the Chinese outbreak.
But that simply didn't happen.

They would spotted at 6 months when the amount of infected people reached over a 1000 maybe.

But as the virus didnt exist as far as doctors were concerned. As miss diagnosis of flu and 80% of infected being asymptomatic.
They are not for months going to see anything.

You need about 4 million people infected to get 20,000 deaths .

The time needed to infect 4 million is 11 months.

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for at least a month.

That's just not true, either historically, or mathematically.
It did not take a month for cases in the UK to turn into outbreaks.

You don't know when covid first came to the country. You only know when they started looking

With an R value of about 3 and a typical time from infection to contagion of a few days you get an explosive growth within a month.
Call it 4 days and, even if you ignore delayed cases, in a month you get 3^7.5 cases.
If 3700 people all suddenly get sick, the healthcare system will notice.

The things that makes the difference is not "it might take up to a month to show up" because, in that month they will infect any people in whom it will show up faster and those people in turn will infect others.

So, by focussing on "up to a month" you are missing the "yes, but almost always faster".

Read what Is actually written for once, I.was talking about a 2 week incubation not a month.

With upto a month for incubation,  the virus can spread unnoticed very easily for atleast a month.

For it to have originated in America, it would only have had to spread unnoticed for 3 months,

So, based on your misunderstanding of "Slowest" vs "fastest" you think it can hide for a month,

No again you are not reading properly patent 0 in month one infects at an R0 of 2, 8 people.

In America most of them wouldn't even get to see a doctor.

But then you say well if it can hide for a month then it can hide for 3 months.
That's absurd.

After 3.months it's only 64 people infected with a R0 of 2.

Mass deaths chemist clearly,  80% being asymptomatic,  12 people actually sick with more severe symptoms.

The only way a virus can hide is not to infect people and, if it did that, it would die out
In 3 months you would run out of people to infect. The numbers (3^22) say about 31 billion cases.
In reality its everyone who isn't on an isolated island.

Exactly when they found samples in Spanish sewage.

If the virus was in sewage in March then it must have been in people in March.
So why didn't it cause an outbreak?

It has where you been.

It's just silly to say "it was in the sewers" because the testing isn't good enough to confirm that

Sorry you'll have to wait for the peer review like the rest of us.

"Currently, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Trusted Source, the incubation period for the novel coronavirus is somewhere between 2 to 14 days after exposure"
https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#incubation-period

Other studies have shown upto a month. So your claim of 4 days is misleading.

Not really.
4 days is a fair average.
Your insistence that only the "a month" is relevant is absurd.

You don't estimate the spread an epidemic based on the slowest bugs.
Just because Jack might take a month to get it, that doesn't stop John and Jill spreading it within the week (typically in about 4 days)

I wasnt basing on the slowest or the fastest I was basing in between the two, a middle speed pay attraction.

[set fair]

If it escaped from Fort Detrick and was released later in Wuhan, the coronavirus would have to have been further enhanced in the mean time. Otherwise Wuhan wouldn't have overtaken the US. If you do your two week doubling in Wuhan it would have to have started there much earlier than september.