[tweener (OP)]

I've been thinking (a dangerous thing [] ) about how fast technology seems to be moving and wanted to throw out this question:

Where do you think genetic science will be in five years?  Ten?  Twenty?

Genetic science is my general term for things like gene therapy, genetic engineering, cloning, GMOs, etc.  I'd like to hear speculation from the people on this forum.  I think everyone here has a better grounding in this than I.


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John

[Donnah]

I think that in five years we will see development of the structure of genetic science (documented techniques & regulations) and cloning healthy organ cells will be researched as a possible option to replace transplants.  

In ten years we will have stem cell therapy, gm foods will be the norm, and cell cloning will be a newly released alternative to transplants.

In twenty years we will be well off as far as medicine goes; stem cell therapy will annihilate the debilitating effects of many injuries and illnesses.  Long term effects (some good, some not) of gm crops will emerge.  Cloning of pets and non-food livestock will be practiced.

[tweener (OP)]

quote:Originally posted by Donnah


In twenty years we will be well off as far as medicine goes; stem cell therapy will annihilate the debilitating effects of many injuries and illnesses.  Long term effects (some good, some not) of gm crops will emerge.  Cloning of pets and non-food livestock will be practiced.

Why just non-food livestock?  I agree with everything else you've said, but I think cattle and possibly sheep will be one of the first "targets" of commercial cloning.


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John

[bezoar]

Hopefully, gene therapy will wipe out genetic defects.  Gene mapping should continue to identify exactly which areas need correcting.  If cloning becomes feasible, and I don't think it will, great minds need never be lost.  Alzheimer's should be a disease of the past, as well as paralysis from spinal cord injury.  Stem cell therapy should put an end to that.  

One day, long after we're gone, someone in a future civilization will excavate some of our bodies and note that surgery was performed on them.  They'll probably shake their heads in disbelief and say, "They cut people open to fix that?  How primitive and barbaric."

Bezoar

[Donnah]

John, I said non-food livestock because I don't see a benefit to cloning the ones we eat.  They won't grow any faster.  I worked in a bovine embryo transfer centre, and the donor cattle were invariably purebreds used for breeding and showing.  These animals carry a much higher price tag, so cloning may be practical for propagating a specific bloodline.

[chris]

John - there is a book you might like called "The Next Fifty Years" which essentially addresses the question you have asked above.

It's not just devoted to genetics. The editorial panel approached some of the world's top scientists and asked them to predict where they saw their field going over the coming 50 years. It takes the stace of "What are the problems currently facing you, what problems have been solved and surmounted during your time as a scientist ?

It's actually been reviewed on this site - here's the link :

http://www.thenakedscientists.com/html/books/historyscience.htm - it's the second one down.

Chris

"I never forget a face, but in your case I'll make an exception"
 - Groucho Marx

[tweener (OP)]

That sounds like a very good book.  I'll try to find it and read it.

Part of the reason I asked this question is that I'm always amused at the short excerpts that are re-published in Scientific American highlighting stories from 50 and 100 years ago.  

The other, and primary, reason is that I feel I can get to know a lot about people based on their answers to strange questions like this.  There is no right or wrong answer, just a good discussion.


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John

[chris]

Scientists tend to be the most guarded about their answers to avoid losing credibility when their predictions don't pan out ! The best peole to ask are those who sit on the funding committees at research councils because those are the guys who decide what gets funded and hence what direction research goes in...

Oh, and you can get the book from Amazon - I just checked the availability - the link above actually connects to the right place on Amazon too.

Chris

"I never forget a face, but in your case I'll make an exception"
 - Groucho Marx

[tweener (OP)]

Thanks Chris.  I know a lot of scientists and know they are very guarded.  The ones high enough to sit on committees (or patient enough?) are even more guarded than normal.  

I just wanted to see if I could get a discussion going.  I guess it has kind of fizzled.


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John

[qazibasit]

what do you people think that is this genetic engineering affordable for average income ppls or will it be too expensive to afford.

[DrN]

I think its really interesting to see what was published in science fiction novels 30 -40 years ago that is actually plausible today. nothing to do with genetics - but commercial trips into space for example. if you want to know whats going to be achieved in the future i reckon this is the first place to look. it seems that scientists take their ideas from science fiction and try to make them real.

personally speaking, I think growing organs in petri dishes will be plausible in the relatively near future, I've just managed to differentiate cells into beating cardiomyocytes! a long way off I know, but fantastic to watch! and yes, we scientists are very guarded, so thats all I'm saying!!

[chris]

I completely agree. Jules Verne, one of my favourite authors of all time, was not far off the mark with "20,000 Leagues Under the Sea" - the Nautilus was even nuclear powered !

Chris

"I never forget a face, but in your case I'll make an exception"
 - Groucho Marx

[tweener (OP)]

Jules Verne also wrote a book about an atomic bomb.  I can't remember the title right now, but I'll try to find it later.  He was an amazing author - a real pioneer as the first real SCIENCE fiction author.

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John - The Eternal Pessimist.