[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Given that some of the corona viruses various strains are known as the common cold, how is corona 19 a new virus, given that viruses mutate, thats how people become suseptable to them again?

[syhprum]

I calculate that about 60.000 Chinese citizens die every day from various causes why the big fuss about about what seems to be a more sever version of the common cold that kills maybe 10 a day ? 

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

I calculate that about 60.000 Chinese citizens die every day from various causes why the big fuss about about what seems to be a more sever version of the common cold that kills maybe 10 a day ? 

Yes, more die in china from air pollution daily. But how does the virus differ in form from the corona cold viruses is what i am asking . Why the big change ?

[Bored chemist]

It's  not a mutation, but a something more like combination.

[evan_au]

There are many corona viruses, affecting humans and other creatures.

It is likely that you have had a corona virus at some time in your life - the ones circulating in the human population produce symptoms like the common cold, and we develop an immunity to it.
- We have have learned to coexist with these viruses (and individuals who did not coexist did not survive)

However, it appears that nCoV19 has jumped from bats into humans (possibly via another animal).
- Humans have no immunity to this new strain of corona virus - it has different surface proteins that our immune systems do not recognise
- Until we learn to coexist with this new virus (or develop a vaccine for it), some people will die, and the rest will develop an immunity
- What is uncertain at this time is how many will die
- What we can do is to try and isolate infected people (and their contacts) to slow the spread of the disease, and keep the number of serious patients at a low level where the hospitals can cope
- The purpose of the hospital is to (hopefully) keep the patient alive long enough for their immune system to recognise the virus, and stop the spread inside the patient (the hospital also hopes they can stop the spread outside the patient).
- I don't see my city building a new 1,000-bed hospital in 2 weeks!! (Like the Chinese did in Wuhan)
- There will be more severe problems in countries without an effective hospital system

[edulofter]

The result of the mutation will only make the virus more likely to infect humans. Every variation of it is like a technical optimization, it will be more powerful than before.

[chris]

The result of the mutation will only make the virus more likely to infect humans. Every variation of it is like a technical optimization, it will be more powerful than before.

This is not true; there are many mutations that are deleterious to the virus, but these are negatively selected and disappear.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The result of the mutation will only make the virus more likely to infect humans. Every variation of it is like a technical optimization, it will be more powerful than before.

This is not true; there are many mutations that are deleterious to the virus, but these are negatively selected and disappear.

This does happen in bacteria and antibiotics, a version of darwin, although it does not necesarrily mean that the resulting organism is anymore powerful, just possibly more difficult to kill ie it survives.

[acsinuk]

QUOTE - What is uncertain at this time is how many will die

But we do know by looking at the Diamond Princess statistics on website    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/            Look at the cruise ship Diamond Princess as a reference point. The ship has about 2500 passengers and 1000 crew.  By now  all of these passengers will probably been infected but only 700 odd have fallen ill.  We can assume the remainder had a mild dose of the virus and survived it.
So the virus will on average cause illness in 712/3500*100=20% of the population of which the stats say 11 died.  Thus the virus will kill about 3 people per 1,000 most of them elderly.   
Note panic lockdowns will not affect the numbers who die but only extend the period over which they become infected thus relieving the health service beds fitted with ventilators. But we have already peaked and the NHS survived so why continue the panic??

[Bored chemist]

Note panic lockdowns will not affect the numbers who die but only extend the period over which they become infected thus relieving the health service beds fitted with ventilators.

The point of a ventilatror is to stop the patient dying.
Are you an idiot?

But we have already peaked

Maybe.
But, even if that's true, it's only conditionally true. Stupid behaviour could easily get the number of sick people above the number that the NHS can cope with.
An example of stupid behaviour would be ending lockdown too early.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

QUOTE - What is uncertain at this time is how many will die

But we do know by looking at the Diamond Princess statistics on website    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/            Look at the cruise ship Diamond Princess as a reference point. The ship has about 2500 passengers and 1000 crew.  By now  all of these passengers will probably been infected but only 700 odd have fallen ill.  We can assume the remainder had a mild dose of the virus and survived it.
So the virus will on average cause illness in 712/3500*100=20% of the population of which the stats say 11 died.  Thus the virus will kill about 3 people per 1,000 most of them elderly.   
Note panic lockdowns will not affect the numbers who die but only extend the period over which they become infected thus relieving the health service beds fitted with ventilators. But we have already peaked and the NHS survived so why continue the panic??

Good insight ! This would do better in the "corona numbers" post.  The diamon princess also has a make up of mostly over 60s as passengers, many of them with health conditions. As over 60s are the majority of cases and underlying health conditions are also more vunerable this makes it a bit more difficult to estimate. Each age year ie 61 or 62 or 63 etc..... makes up about 1 million people in the uk, tapering down so you end up with fewer 95 year olds than 75 year olds.  If you can work through the numbers it will give a better figure.

[Bored chemist]

By now  all of these passengers will probably been infected

No.
We can not assume that.
There were fairly strict quarantine processes within the ship. It's perfectly possible that 700 people got sick because the other 2300 or so were protected by staying in their cabins. You simply don't know.
Realistically, it's somewhere between 3000 and 700, but we don't know the real number exposed.
If it's 700 then the gross mortality rate is about 11/700 i.e. 1.5%

And it's also sensible to assume that the population was healthy- sufficiently so to go on a cruise holiday.
And it's even more sensible to assume they were wealthy and that's usually a factor that reduces mortality.

It's not realistic to extrapolate from a cruise ship to the general population.

he diamon princess also has a make up of mostly over 60s as passengers,

That's pushing it.
About a third of the people are crew. That is a bunch of fit health, predominantly young adults.
And not all cruise travellers are over 60.

[acsinuk]

Have a look at the website     https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/              This age profile clearly shows that people over the age of 60 and anyone with breathing difficulties should self isolate.  However, children need to go to school and workers under the age of 60 should be encouraged to return to work using a mask, if unable to get a 2 metre separation, as even if they are the 1 in 5 that develop a temperature and have to stay at home, only less than 1 in 500 will need to go to hospital.
NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned by them.

[Bored chemist]

NOTE   The WHO advice was that the global community should take precautions to limit the effect of virus.  Lockdowns were never mentioned by them.

The lockdown is one of the more effective "precautions to limit the effect of virus. "
That's the point.

[acsinuk]

  "Let God decide who lives and who dies and pray that politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."
To keep the life of the nation ticking over we need to give priority to the use the ventilators for those most critical to the economy such as young sewage workers, health care workers etc but not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything; thus increasing unemployment resulting in financial instability and rampant inflation.
But do please keep away from crowds and the over 70's as they will be low on the list for the use of NHS ventilators if they get covid19 which is why they will most probably choose to self isolate.

[acsinuk]

Well nearly finished as we will still get little peaks as cities and care homes become infected. But governments must prioritise in doing what is for the common good and support the economy so our standard of living is maintained.  Study the government statistics as follows :- 
The Office of National Statistics issues figures for deaths in the UK.   These show that in March this year 49,723 people died.   The number that died in March 2019 was only 43,946 so we can see that some 6,000 extra people died presumably of the Covid19 virus during last month or about 200 per day.  Assuming the average stay for Covid19 patients could be around a week for people under retirement age as typified by  the PM
NHS sitrep report shows the number of available Intensive care beds in UK for February was 4,122 of which 3,359 were occupied leaving 763 spare which would be sufficient if the government issues an edit stating that people over retirement age should self isolate, as if they fall ill there is no guarantee that a ICU bed will be available as NHS have been instructed to prioritise ICU beds for young and working age patients.  So it looks like the Nightingale beds may never need to be used if a vaccine becomes available quickly.
Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.  To stop overcrowding in the rush hour only shops, businesses and factories that are prepared to adopt a 2 shift system should be allowed to open in town/city centres.  By adopting a shift system of 7am to 2pm and 1pm to  8pm we can split the travel peak into 3 parts but probably still insist on the wearing of a mask where passengers are within a metre of someone else, 

[Bored chemist]

"Let God decide who lives and who dies

Not on a science site.

pray that politicians will do what is for the common good of the nation."

Boris doesn't seem to have made a good decision yet.
Perhaps you should pray harder.

not cause great stress and hardships by closing down everything

It turns out that the hardships are due to people hoarding all the money which other people earned.

That's why they want us minions to go back to work and die.

Thus, the children and working population can return to work but maintain social distancing.

That is exactly what got us into this mess.
Essentially you are saying
"Well the parachute has reduced our rate of descent- so we can take it off now."