[Petrochemicals]

This, you consummate idiot, is not a cold/ flu virus.

Let's keep things civil.

Corona virus is not a cold virus, a novel one at that? Or where you on about pneumonia?

[alancalverd]

20 to 30 year olds who don't really mind if they get syphilis or chlamydia.

Funnily enough, most of them do. The difference is that these diseases are transmitted by (mainly voluntary) close contact in the pursuit of pleasure or business, are mostly symptomatic, and are treatable, so youngsters turn up at STD clinics with a reasonable hope of recovery and sound advice.

COVID can be received by sitting on the same bus as a complete stranger with no symptoms, and is not treatable.

[alancalverd]

Corona virus is not a cold virus, a novel one at that? Or where you on about pneumonia?

Unlikely, as pneumonia is not a viral disease.

[Petrochemicals]

Corona virus is not a cold virus, a novel one at that? Or where you on about pneumonia?

Unlikely, as pneumonia is not a viral disease.

It has been noted that bacterial pneumonia immunisation can help with corona virus

[Petrochemicals]

20 to 30 year olds who don't really mind if they get syphilis or chlamydia.

Funnily enough, most of them do. The difference is that these diseases are transmitted by (mainly voluntary) close contact in the pursuit of pleasure or business, are mostly symptomatic, and are treatable, so youngsters turn up at STD clinics with a reasonable hope of recovery and sound advice.

COVID can be received by sitting on the same bus as a complete stranger with no symptoms, and is not treatable.

Well they care less than the pursuit of biological procreation, but more than corona virus. But I can hardly see the unnamed civil servant going out of his way for them.

[Bored chemist]

Corona virus is not a cold virus

Well spotted.
You may be confused by the fact that some colds are caused by coronaviruses.
But what I said was "This virus...".
The Covid 19 virus is obviously not a cold virus, because colds are infections that annoy you but (virtually) never kill.

[evan_au]

The Covid 19 virus is obviously not a cold virus, because colds are infections that annoy you but (virtually) never kill.

I wonder whether some of the "common cold" viruses started off the same way?

When Europeans traveled to far shores, they carried a number of infections that were considered routine - mild childhood diseases.
- But when they reached a population that had no childhood exposure, they caused large numbers of deaths.
- Perhaps some susceptible genetic variants had been wiped out in European populations centuries before, but were still present in this distant population?
- Those who survived the initial onslaught appear to have developed immunity (and just had to survive a variety of other forms of disadvantage)

This is roughly where we are now, exposed to a new pathogen in the form of SARS-COV2.
- Children are infected, but symptoms seem to be mild
- Older people and people with chronic diseases are dying more often, but we have no obvious way of identifying who will get severe disease and who will get milder disease.
- Various studies into genetic pathways and susceptibility are starting to yield some results, but it's still early days...

There is still a bit of an attitude persisting in Western countries today that deaths in distant countries aren't worth worrying about...
- But deaths in my country are worrying (eg see Zika, where concern peaked as it spread northward through central America, and then dissipated, leaving some vaccine developments half-finished)
- Vaccines developed for this SARS-COV2 have benefited from recent vaccine developments.
- The Pfizer mRNA vaccine no doubt benefited from investment by the Gates foundation in RNA vaccines, looking for a way to quickly address neglected tropical diseases
- Other efforts have benefited from partial research into Zika vaccines, and an Ebola vaccine

I think that these novel zoonotic diseases may be a repeat of what the West did to populations around the world.
- But now we have the scientific expertise, enough disposable income and an incentive to do something about it.
- As it is a pandemic, the solution and vaccine(s) must be shared with the whole world, or disease breakouts will spread rapidly, with international travel operating in stop/start mode

So, as the current younger generation grows up, will it just become another mild "common cold"?
- Or will the children become more susceptible as they get older, and need ongoing vaccination programs (perhaps because susceptible genetic variants will still exist in the population?).

[alancalverd]

But I can hardly see the unnamed civil servant going out of his way for them.

As a previously unnamed civil servant, civil defence adviser and minor cog in the NHS, I can assure you that it was our job to look after everyone. Even the politicians who caused the mess in the first place.

[alancalverd]

colds are infections that annoy you but (virtually) never kill.

The secret of successful parasitism is not to kill your host before it has nurtured and dispersed your offspring. The common cold does this very well, with high infectivity and low lethality, and winter flu is learning the ropes.

COVID has taken a new tack of being infective before symptoms develop, so it is indifferent to the later fate of its victims. Whilst it was given a significant temporary boost by the UK government deliberately placing infective patients in unprotected nursing homes (officially a war crime) the real target spreaders and preferred hosts are of course the young and middle-aged, for many of whom it is indeed only a minor irritant. The dead and permanently disabled are tolerable collateral damage. 

Never underestimate the intelligence, or ignore the motive, of your enemy.

[Petrochemicals]

But I can hardly see the unnamed civil servant going out of his way for them.

As a previously unnamed civil servant, civil defence adviser and minor cog in the NHS, I can assure you that it was our job to look after everyone. Even the politicians who caused the mess in the first place.

Well its just a good job that the medical professionals understand triage. They will vaccinate the vulnerable as in flu. How long will it take to vaccinate 65 million people rather than 15, and how long the non vulnerable wait (they are not waiting at present)

[alancalverd]

Assume half the army and reserves are called up, and each squaddie vaccinates one person every 5 minutes for 8 hours a day. That's a lot slower than your average military medic, but civilians don't always cooperate.

That's a potential for 4,800,000 shots every day, so it could be done in a bit over 2 weeks.

If you can use powderject technology it can be done in a week.

If the government or PHE get involved, forget it.

[Petrochemicals]

Assume half the army and reserves are called up, and each squaddie vaccinates one person every 5 minutes for 8 hours a day. That's a lot slower than your average military medic, but civilians don't always cooperate.

That's a potential for 4,800,000 shots every day, so it could be done in a bit over 2 weeks.

If you can use powderject technology it can be done in a week.

If the government or PHE get involved, forget it.

yeah, it'll be done by, err,,,, next week

[evan_au]

Assume half the army and reserves are called up

There was an interview on this week's Naked Scientists podcast - apparently Slovakia did a mass testing of the whole country, with the help of the army.

I think I would be more trusting of your average infantry man armed with a cotton-covered swab than armed with a sharp needle...

Perhaps if you equipped them with an injector gun, that would be more in line with their training - "ready, aim, fire" - and they can hardly miss at point blank range!
- And they could probably get through patients faster than 1 every 5 minutes

The limiting bottleneck would probably be doing the paperwork
- So maybe they need to scan in your drivers license (or other identification) to remove the paperwork bottleneck
- And print out a certificate on the spot, showing:
       - An image of your license
       - the time, date and place you got vaccinated
       - which vaccine was used
       - Whether this was the first or second inoculation (where appropriate)

There is still the potential for allergic reactions.
- My pharmacist can only schedule one flu vaccination every 15 minutes, because he asks you to sit down for 10 minutes where he can watch you, to see if you faint, puff up or have trouble breathing.
- It's hard to watch 15 people at once if you have to keep 1.5 meters separation between everyone!

[alancalverd]

I think I would be more trusting of your average infantry man armed with a cotton-covered swab than armed with a sharp needle...

AFAIK basic training still includes the use of knives and bayonets, so sticking things into people is part of the job.

ID is a problem in the UK where there is no statutory requirement for it, and your name is, legally, "what your friends call you" but it doesn't really matter anyway. You can write out your own barcoded certificate while you are waiting, and have it copied and stamped when you are done - maybe with a photo?

Our happy soldier can service "voting booth" stations in turn and tell you to wait after the jab until his mate stamps your card and releases you, say 10 minutes later. Local clinics are already using transparent shields between the chairs in waiting rooms so one nurse can easily supervise a few dozen chairs.

Problem is that this needs planning, resources and commitment, three military terms that politicians do not understand.

[acsinuk]

You do not need to record the jab as it is up to each person to get him or herself vaccinated and their dependants..  SCRAP ALL PAPERWOK and get on with the job of vaccinating everyone and give each person a certificate to fill in beforehand with their name, address  postcode, phone/Email address on the certificate/form then medic/nurse will, jab, datestamp/address centre on the form which the recipient must keep in their possession until the pandemic is declared ended and masks are off.
 If police find someone without a mask in a public place; they should insist on seeing their vaccination cert immediately and if none then take them to nearest vaccination centre so they and everyone else will be safe.

[alancalverd]

My point exactly - you fill in  your form before getting the jab.

Not sure if a PAPERWOK would be much use anyway. You can boil water in a paper kettle but the poor conductivity of dry paper won't allow you to stir-fry. And sooner or later somebody would call the immunisation certificate a JABBERWOK, thus locating HM government's worldbeating program firmly in the Looking-glass Wonderland its ministers inhabit. 

[Note for US readers - it's a quotation from a text you may know better as Malice in Blunderland]

[acsinuk]

Thanks Alan, The quicker we get the vaccine the better. We can then declare herd immunity within manufacturing time even by Christmas if Zenica can manage it. 
We knew the Oxford vaccine would probably work in March, if government had authorised its use on volunteers in nursing home then, seen the results in 14 days, authorised it immediately, then the whole lockdown nonsense could have been avoided.

[alancalverd]

Not the morons in government but experts in the civil service and ethics committees, who fast-tracked every possible test, treatment and vaccine as quickly as possible. I was there.

You can't "see the results in 14 days" if you haven't got a reasonable approximation to a finished product, and it's probably a good idea to prove that it won't kill a mouse or a pig before dosing a thousand human volunteers.

The only contribution made by UK politicians was to pretend it wasn't a problem,  turn it into a political football instead of solving it, and refuse to let competent laboratories do any testing.

Now we have proof of efficacy, it is still going to take some months to produce any of the vaccines in significant quantity, and then wait for the politicians to screw up its distribution. The real fun will begin in February when today's absurd political decision to put Christmas before common sense turns into the Third Wave of fatalities. Laws should be made for wise men, for the guidance of others, not by idiots for the illusory pleasure of other idiots. Hopefully there will be enough emergency service personnel and health professionals  left in the new year to clear up the mess.   

[acsinuk]

The government has forgotten we are fighting a war and therefore we need to take instant action to vaccinate everyone immediately because we know that masks and lockdowns just do not work.  Even if a few people do die of unexpected complications it will be less than the virus is at present killing anyway and certainly in the long term it is for the common good of the nation to get moving again

[alancalverd]

Agreed. Immediate vaccination of the entire UK population is a desirable objective. So let's do a tactical logistics plan and SITREP.

What we need is a magic money tree; an oven-ready factory; unlimited supplies of raw materials; a thousand refrigerated trucks; ten thousand clinical refrigerators; instant paramedic training of all military personnel; enough car parking and disabled taxis to get everyone to our instantly constructed vaccination centers; software that works; enough police officers to control the traffic and stop the riots; and a few nurses who aren't already dead or working overtime, to supervise the field operation.

What we actually have is a bunch of idiots who think their political popularity is more important than your survival.

What we did have was a rapidly declining case rate in the last two weeks, due to the masks and lockdowns that you say don't work.

What we can expect is a peak of around 100,000 cases per day by mid-January, followed by another 40,000 deaths before Easter.