[stuartcrisp (OP)]

Is there modelling that looks at the consequences of our empty children's wards and A + Es and to a lesser extent adult non-Covid wards? What is the risk of excess morbidity/mortality because people (especially children) are staying away from A + E?

[chris]

This is Chris Whitty's "secondary deaths" which are health consequences not directly caused by Covid-19 but instead indirectly linked to it. For instance, people having a heart attack who cannot get to hospital because all the ambulances are tied up being decontaminated after ferrying Covid patients to A&E. Also, people with planned treatments judged too risky under the circumstances may find their therapy deferred and they are forced to accept less than gold-standard treatments.

Is this happening? Yes. Do we have evidence? Not yet, but I suspect it will be accruing. For instance, a cardiologist friend reported that his presentations and case load for heart failure and stroke had plummeted. But this does not mean people have suddenly stopped having heart failure, they are instead deteriorating in the community, too fearful to come to hospital. The result may be people who go beyond the point of no return and cannot be rescued back because they present too late when they eventually are seen.