[Bored chemist]

Do you  mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site  without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.

Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer

So, you are saying the sites administrators are idiots for believing you when you said that you would enter into a discussion.
That's... interesting.

Presumably you recognise that everyone apart from you realises that 3.5 is about 5, but you don't want to admit to being too foolish to have worked it out for yourself.

[alancalverd]

Average time from symptoms to death is about one month.

On 14 October there were 654,644 confirmed  COVID cases in the UK
by 30 October there were 56,313 excess deaths since March - 8.6%
by the time of writing (2330, 15 November) there were 51,934 registered COVID deaths - 7.9%

These scaremongering numbers were invented and published by irresponsible amateurs: Public Health England, UK Office for National Statistics, and WHO. Clearly these people know nothing about infectious disease and should refer to pensador, who can tell them the truth without bothering to collect any data at all.

[Kryptid]

Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer

Don't insult other members, please.

[pensador (OP)]

Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer

Don't insult other members, please.

I did not try to create a straw man argument and neither did not throw the first stone.

If you educate an idiot do you then have an educated idiot  

@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

[Bored chemist]

@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures.

Everyone else did.

The The case fatality rate  given on the page you cited shows data ranging from about 1.5 to about 14.
That could be summed up as " about 5%" and Alan did.
He's right within a factor of about 3 which is as good as you can get with a spread like that.
So, you can't find the data on the page you actually cited.

[Kryptid]

I did not try to create a straw man argument and neither did not throw the first stone.

If you educate an idiot do you then have an educated idiot  

I don't care. It's against the forum rules to insult other members. So cut it out.

[Bored chemist]

I did not try to create a straw man argument

Who did, and what was it?

[alancalverd]

@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

It's a very good reference but you have to be able to read as well as look at the pictures. CFR is "case fatality rate".

When some people are currently sick and will die of the disease, but have not died yet, the CFR will underestimate the true risk of death. With COVID-19, there are many who are currently sick and will die, but have not yet died. Or, they may die from the disease but be listed as having died from something else.

In ongoing outbreaks, people who are currently sick will eventually die from the disease. This means that they are currently counted as a case, but will eventually be counted as a death too. This means the CFR right now is an underestimate of what it will be when the disease has run its course.

With the COVID-19 outbreak, it can take between two to eight weeks for people to go from first symptoms to death, according to data from early cases (we discuss this here)

which is exactly what I have been explaining in these discussions.

However if you look at the pictures carefully you will see  what BC has pointed out.The CFR has peaked at around 14% in countries with a good health service and credible records (like Italy) and even in Sweden, often held up to be a model of best practice, the CFR peaked at 13.7% and is still at 4%.

What will interest the numerate among our readers is that the Italian peak,for instance, occurred in June, when the daily number of cases was at a minimum, and the daily case rate in Sweden  is now at its highest ever. The reason is exactly as ourworldindata says: there is a lag of 2 - 8 weeks between symptoms and death, so whenever the case rate increases, the apparent death rate decreases.

Although the populations of India and Brazil are very large, the extent of testing and the accuracy of reported cause of death do not command the same degree of confidence as Spain, Sweden and Italy, so the reported "world average" is almost certainly less accurate an indicator of lethality that the carefully documented original work of Li Wenliang.

I don't subscribe to the "idiot" charge, because an idiot can be persuaded by the clear presentation of simple facts.  The word for people who deny or ignore the truth is "priest" or "politician".  There is no greater insult in my book, so I won't use it here.   

[pensador (OP)]

@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

It's a very good reference but you have to be able to read as well as look at the pictures. CFR is "case fatality rate".

The reference does clearly point out that the younger are less vulnerable. They are not considered in the high risk group and in America at least the vaccination planning does not include the young if vaccines are limited.

The below cut and paste is from the American CDC website. The young are considered less vulnerable. 

"
ACIP is considering four groups to possibly recommend for early COVID-19 vaccination if supply is limited:

Healthcare personnel
Workers in essential and critical industries
People at high risk for severe COVID-19 illness due to underlying medical conditions
People 65 years and older
Healthcare personnel continue to be on the front line of the nation’s fight against this deadly pandemic. By providing critical care to those infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, many healthcare personnel have a high risk of being exposed to and getting sick with COVID-19. Healthcare personnel who get COVID-19 can also spread the virus to their patients seeking care for medical conditions that, in turn, increase their patients’ risk for severe COVID-19 illness. Early vaccine access is critical to ensuring the health and safety of this essential workforce of approximately 21 million people, protecting not only them but also their patients, communities, and the broader health of our country. Learn who is included under the broad term “healthcare personnel.”

Workers in essential and critical industries are considered part of America’s critical infrastructure, as defined by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agencyexternal icon. Current data show that many of these workers are at increased risk for getting COVID-19. Early vaccine access is critical not only to protect them but also to maintain the essential services they provide U.S. communities.

People with certain underlying medical conditions are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 illness, regardless of their age. Severe illness means that the person with COVID-19 may require hospitalization, intensive care, or a ventilator to help them breathe, or that they may even die. Early vaccine access is critical to ensuring the health and safety of this population that is disproportionately affected by COVID-19.

Among adults, the risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19 increases with age, with older adults at highest risk. Early vaccine access is critical to help protect this population that is disproportionately affected by COVID-19.
"

The youngest financially vulnerable workers are not even considered, in this American dream plan.

The English politicians are known for their frugality and dislike of spending money except when their mates are losing out. Has the UK even got enough vaccines to treat the health workers, let alone the statistically vulnerable, who are going to die of old age soon any way. 

School kids need their education, and if they are as you say going to a life time of complications through contracting covid-19, should they not be given a higher priority over the elderly grandparents or politicians.

Someone having a life time of complications against someone who only has a couple of years left to live.
Which group should be the priority in a country that has not got enough vaccines to go around.

In the UK I am pessimistically guessing included in the essential workers will be politicians and their mates before any of the younger generation get a look in.

[alancalverd]

Nobody has any approved commercial vaccine at this time.The only people who can be vaccinated are volunteers in clinical trials of safety and efficacy.

Youngsters may not suffer greatly but because they can be asymptomatic, they are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.

So the requirement is to vaccinate everybody (except for the fools who refuse, but it's their funeral).

Given that there may not be immediate 100% availability, it makes sense to vaccinate the most vulnerable, the most exposed, and the most essential initially, but any suggestion that groups should be permanently excluded for any nonmedical reason must be regarded as defecting to the enemy, for which the penalty is death.

Not sure about the others, but the Oxford vaccine is expected to cost about £2 per shot when it is commercialised. Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.

[Bored chemist]

Has the UK even got enough vaccines to treat the health workers

No
But you seem to have missed something- we can make more of it.

The reference does clearly point out that the younger are less vulnerable.

If you check really carefully, you will find that nobody ever disputed this.
Why do you keep banging on about it?

Just a thought...
Before they gave you a BCG  vaccination against TB they checked to see if you had already been exposed. If you had been, there was no point in vaccinating you, and there was a larger risk of adverse reaction.

Given that there was no effective PPE, and thus many or most health workers were exposed, will the politicians (and I broadly share Alan's view of them) use this as an excuse not to spend resources vaccinating them?

[pensador (OP)]

Nobody has any approved commercial vaccine at this time.The only people who can be vaccinated are volunteers in clinical trials of safety and efficacy.

Youngsters may not suffer greatly but because they can be asymptomatic, they are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.

So the requirement is to vaccinate everybody (except for the fools who refuse, but it's their funeral).

Given that there may not be immediate 100% availability, it makes sense to vaccinate the most vulnerable, the most exposed, and the most essential initially, but any suggestion that groups should be permanently excluded for any nonmedical reason must be regarded as defecting to the enemy, for which the penalty is death.

Not sure about the others, but the Oxford vaccine is expected to cost about £2 per shot when it is commercialised. Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.

Given that the young are spreaders, would it not make sense therefore to vaccinate them, to stop the little sh1ts from spreading it Just vaccinating vulnerable small sections of a community with a vaccine whose long term efficacy is not fully tested, might result in a need for re-vaccination of the vulnerable the following year. The young might never be vaccinated until they become vulnerable due to complications arising from having contracted covid.   

Moderna a US company have just agreed a deal for 5 million vaccines to the UK, at 25$ a shot. This vaccine does not need storing at -70C like the one being bought from the European company and can be stored in a normal fridge. It has a claimed 94.5 effectiveness and 100% effective against needing hospital treatment in the event you get it. It also has indications that it might have long term effectiveness. 

5 million vaccines is not enough for the UK, how many other vaccines have been ordered from else where for delivery when, does any one know? UK population currently just over(about) 68 million.

Politically without a Brexit deal, will buying anything from the EU stop, including vaccines? Most EU officials are pessimistic about a deal will be done with the UK.

[pensador (OP)]

Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.

Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe901#:~:text=US%20Banana%20Production,-US%20banana%20production&text=Hawaii%20is%20by%20far%20the,to%208%2C090%20mmt%20in%202010.

Edit  I think this link from the BBC posted 19 hours ago, explains the status on vaccines to date https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497

[alancalverd]

Politically without a Brexit deal, will buying anything from the EU stop, including vaccines? Most EU officials are pessimistic about a deal will be done with the UK.

EU manufacturers are quite happy to sell anything to anyone, usually at a lower price than inside the EU, because the rest of the world is competitive. Since the UK is the third largest customer for German cars  (after Germany and the USA) they would be mad to think otherwise. The "deal" is: no import duties on EU goods unless the EU puts a duty on UK goods, in which case the UK tariff on German cars or French food is 50% from midnight. The sound of politicians falling out of windows hasn't been heard for a long time.

If it is possible to manufacture 1 million or 5 million shots to an acceptable quality level,  it's possible to manufacture 50 or 100 million. The technology break occurs in the 1,000  to 1,000,000 scale up from laboratory to factory, after which it is a much simpler question of building another factory. Given a world market for 5,000,000,000 ASAP and at least 500,000,000 annually until the bug is eradicated, it's a safe investment.   

[alancalverd]

Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida

You don't have to grow bananas to become a banana republic. The term refers to the intellect of the president and the moral integrity of the senate.

[pensador (OP)]

Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida

You don't have to grow bananas to become a banana republic. The term refers to the intellect of the president and the moral integrity of the senate.

Do mean president trump, who is seen here having a tantrum as his minders try to make him leave the white house

Its worth a chuckle!. scary thing this guy would have won another election if it had not been for Covid-19. 

Ref conspiracy theorists many people wont take a vaccine for various conspiratorial reasons, some hovering around Bill Gates. Its not just the current President who might have mental issues.

When and if the French based Astra Zeneca vaccine is released. Portugal will receive enough doses to vaccinate at least 60% of the population. The other 40% will have to wait.

There is confusing information ref the storage temperatures required for the vaccines, I have read that Modernas and Astra Zenecas vaccine both can be stored  at around -20C I have also read that Modernas needs to be stored at -70C which is right, does anyone know? https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/from-labs-to-syringes-how-a-covid-19-vaccine-will-reach-you/articleshow/78253854.cms

Edit answered my own question https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/boost-oxford-covid-vaccine-emerges-rivals-must-deep-frozen/

-2C or -8C for astro zeneca protein based vaccine.  Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines and -70C and -25C respectively

[evan_au]

There is confusing information ref the storage temperatures required for the vaccines,

There has been more information released on this recently...
Storage stability of the Astra-Zenica mRNA vaccine went something like this:
- Store for 6 months at -70°C (eg liquid nitrogen temperatures)
- Store for 1 month at -40°C (eg Dry Ice temperatures)
- Store for 5 days at 4°C (eg normal vaccine fridge at a doctor or pharmacy)
- So it degrades over time, becoming less effective as a vaccine

I assume that it is one or the other - you can't take one of each! (ie 6 months + 1 month + 5 days)
- This is due to the fact that mRNA is more fragile than DNA or proteins
- It is packaged in a lipid (fatty) membrane, without the various support structures that hold virus RNA together
- It is subject to radiation in the environment, from the decay of radioactive elements and cosmic rays
- As a non-living object, it has no repair mechanism

There are projects underway to deliver the vaccine in a more practical way, like an insulated box with dry ice inside.
There are projects underway to extend the vaccine lifetime, like additives in the vaccine to stabilize it, or a powdered form.

Some of the more traditional types of vaccines are better suited to the traditional vaccine refrigerator (4°C).
- But even a 4°C cold-chain is hard to maintain in some parts of the world...

Some information here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-how-much-they-cost-whos-bought-them-and-how-theyre-stored.html

Youngsters ... are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.

This is certainly true of influenza.

I heard of a detailed population simulation of SARS-COV2 virus spread (from a team at Sydney University). It gave excessively high rates of spread if they assumed that children spread the virus as efficiently as adults.
When they wound back the infectivity of children, the rates of spread looked more realistic.
See: https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard

So maybe children are less infectious?
- I heard that the virus spike protein must be cleaved before it can enter cells efficiently
- And the enzymes responsible are more common in adolescents and older

[pensador (OP)]

I assume that it is one or the other - you can't take one of each! (ie 6 months + 1 month + 5 days)
- This is due to the fact that mRNA is more fragile than DNA or proteins
- It is packaged in a lipid (fatty) membrane, without the various support structures that hold virus RNA together
- It is subject to radiation in the environment, from the decay of radioactive elements and cosmic rays
- As a non-living object, it has no repair mechanism

Are you sure the Astra Zeneca vaccine is mRNA based vaccine and not a protein based vaccine?

[alancalverd]

scary thing this guy would have won another election if it had not been for Covid-19. 

The real scary thing is that COVID would not have killed more Americans in 9 months than World War I, Korea and Vietnam, if it had not been for Trump. And yet still they vote for him. 70 million bananas, each with a death wish.

[evan_au]

Are you sure the Astra Zeneca vaccine is mRNA based vaccine and not a protein based vaccine?

Since mRNA in a cell produces proteins, a mRNA vaccine is also a protein-based vaccine.
- Both the Astra-Zeneca and Moderna vaccine candidates ferry mRNA into human cells following vaccination.
- The human cells produce a protein, which appears on the surface of the cells
- This is a corona virus protein, which would only be visible there if the cell were infected with corona virus
- The immune system recognizes this protein as "foreign", and attacks it.
See, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/pfizer-pfe-astrazeneca-azn-moderna-mrna-covid-vaccines-leave-questions

Some traditional vaccines just inject the protein, and contain no mRNA
- While others inject a whole virus (perhaps in a weakened state)
- Often an adjuvant is added to the vaccine to better grab the attention of the immune system

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjuvant