[pensador (OP)]

Not my figures, but yesterday's statement from the UK  government statistical service. The worldometer figure is culled from countries with different reporting criteria and in different phases of the disease, but as BC points out, its average is pretty close to the reported UK death rate.

The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.

Global Statistics show clearly different people age groups and races are affected differently. I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live. 

In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.

The imposition of effective quarantine will eventually clear any geographical area of a virus. The required period for COVID seems to be not more than 40 days if cases are handled properly. Then you deploy an entry test or vaccination certificate for  anyone entering the area, and gradually amalgamate and expand safe areas.

Because the perimeter/area ratio is an inverse function of radius, the job gets easier as the safe area grows - you can appoint  immigration control personnel as a multiple of r²  but the boundary you need to patrol only increases with r.

Dream on. If you live on a small island maybe as in the carribean. But in a population the size of the UK or any city. People are not going to follow the guidelines for social separation, unless the disease frightens them in doors. Teenagers have more important hormone driven priorities than social separation and trying not to infect someone they dont give a crap about. This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.

[alancalverd]

If you look at the worldometer "probability of death if infected" and divide it in proportion to the population in each age group, yo get something in the region of 5 - 6% overall.

This is hardly surprising as the virus hasn't changed since it was first reported, so why would the global fatality rate be any different from the figures carefully researched in a modern university hospital in Wuhan?   

[alancalverd]

I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live. 

You seem to hail from Portugal. Interesting. Same size population as Sweden, more reported infections, but only half the number of reported deaths. Someone isn't telling the whole truth.

[Bored chemist]

But in a population the size of the UK or any city. People are not going to follow the guidelines for social separation

The city of Wuhan is bigger than most cities in the UK (or, indeed, Europe).
They did follow the rules.
It worked very well.
I'm no fan of authoritarian government, but you can't dispute the efficacy in this case.

[Bored chemist]

This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.

Many people are selfish.
That does not make it a good thing...

[pensador (OP)]

I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live.

You seem to hail from Portugal. Interesting. Same size population as Sweden, more reported infections, but only half the number of reported deaths. Someone isn't telling the whole truth.

We have a good health service in Portugal, many Portuguese nurses work in the UK, infact one of Boris Johnsons Covid nursers was Portuguese.

I actually live in the Azores and we have had very few deaths from Covid. Covid was eradicated on all the islands except Sao Miguel a couple of months back, then they allowed travel again, and hay presto covid came back. We currently have very few cases, and no deaths at all on this island. I feel for the people on mainland europe, and the other larger islands in the north atlantic. You are in the crap big time

I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures, and I dont think you have except for some Brexit phobia.

[pensador (OP)]

This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.

Many people are selfish.
That does not make it a good thing...

Its a fact of life, and needs to be built into any plan. Most teenagers are not known for their compassion, and neither are greedy business people, who want to win big business deals. 

[Bored chemist]

neither are greedy business people, who want to win big business deals. 

That's why we gave governments and laws

Most teenagers are not known for their compassion,

And, to a degree, ditto.

[alancalverd]

I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures

So what magic potion are your countrymen using to halve the lethality of the virus?

[alancalverd]

If you live on a small island maybe as in the carribean.

Or a big one like Australia. Or a middlesized one like New Zealand. Or a really densely populated trading hub like Singapore.

[pensador (OP)]

I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures

So what magic potion are your countrymen using to halve the lethality of the virus?

I dont see many fat slobs around where I live, and people dont get pissed out of their heads when they go out  socializing. Maybe the portuguese were just lucky and the disease didnt get into retirement homes as easily as it did in the UK. Perhaps the majority of the people follow the rules ref social separation. Maybe the English figures are scare mongering.

We must also take into consideration that the disease is not only spread by contact it is spread by assholes, perhaps there are more assholes in the UK

[alancalverd]

The rates of infection in the UK and Portugal to date are almost identical, at 1.8% of the population (worldometer), which is why the recorded COVID deaths seem so out of kilter with the rest of the civilised world.

I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress.

The number of biological assholes in the UK is about 68,000,000, mostly in the south and east. The number of dangerous assholes is 1, with his hand up that of the Prime Minister. Who else would have thought of infecting nursing homes as a deliberate policy? Indeed, Mr C edited one of his earlier emails in order to claim credit for it.

[Bored chemist]

The rates of infection in the UK and Portugal to date are almost identical, at 1.8% of the population (worldometer), which is why the recorded COVID deaths seem so out of kilter with the rest of the civilised world.

I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress

Well, it could be something as simple as warmer weather or lower rates of obesity.
Who knows?
It's still not a reason to advocate spreading the plague.

[pensador (OP)]

I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress.

The number of biological assholes in the UK is about 68,000,000, mostly in the south and east. The number of dangerous assholes is 1, with his hand up that of the Prime Minister. Who else would have thought of infecting nursing homes as a deliberate policy? Indeed, Mr C edited one of his earlier emails in order to claim credit for it.

Two Websites one for Portugal and one for the Azores https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/ https://covid19.azores.gov.pt/ Hit translate if you dont speak pork n cheese.

It seems patients in nursing homes without Covid were moved to nursing homes with covid, allowing the nursing homes to be used for people recovering from covid, in at least one city > Sheffield

[Bored chemist]

It seems patients in nursing homes without Covid were moved to nursing homes with covid, allowing the nursing homes to be used for people recovering from covid, in at least one city > Sheffield

Patients were sent from hospitals to care homes without testing.
Boris blamed the surge in covid cases in homes on poor nursing /care in the homes .
They pointed out that they were following government instructions.
Boris is an utter *^%%

[alancalverd]

Portugal and Azores figures may explain the apparent anomaly of 3% fatality - thanks for the reference. More than half of the cases have occurred since mid-October, so the vulnerable ones won't have died yet.

[pensador (OP)]

Portugal and Azores figures may explain the apparent anomaly of 3% fatality - thanks for the reference. More than half of the cases have occurred since mid-October, so the vulnerable ones won't have died yet.

Not quite, in the Azores we did have it all but cleared up on all the islands by May except on Sao Miguel, which only had a handful of cases left. The majority of deaths were in sao miguel due to covid getting into a nursing home there. The Azores allowed travel again in May after we were cleared. Over the subsequent months there has been the odd case, but recently the numbers have started ramping up, due to people arriving from the mainland. The people returning with covid are typically less than 40, and less vulnerble to covid, lots of students, and people working. Also the Azores is testing everyone on arrival, to the islands. The disease has returned in the last month to the central group in small numbers and was being contained, by people behaving sensibly and self isolating. However this week a asshole returned from the mainland via sao miguel, and errr! gentlemens!! club, and then attended clubs and bars on Pico and Sao Jorge so all the people known to have attended are being traced by the authorities to try and contain the virus. If it is found to have spread, via persons not known in said clubs then the islands will go into lock down again. We will find out by the end of next week. At the moment normal social distancing measures are being applied, with no other restrictions.

The spread in Lisbon and Porto on the mainland is mainly due to the population density and a perhaps higher proportion of assholes. The Al Garve and other rural areas in the mainland have largely contained the virus last time I checked. By contained those with it or have been contact with someone with it, are in quarantine.

The virus is easy to contain in the Azores islands, due to low populations, small villages and cities that would only be classified as small towns in the UK. The problems occur when assholes arriving from infected areas, move as normal through the islands without isolating themselves whilst waiting for test results. 

[alancalverd]

Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly. My concern was that the raw figures of deaths per infection didn't make sense, but having seen the recent graphs, I can see why they are currently anomalous.

You might also get a secondary anomaly: any visitor who thinks he might be infected would be inclined to return home whilst asymptomatic and thus spread the disease and possibly die on the mainland.

[Bored chemist]

Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly.

Not really.
It would tell you who had the virus, and where they were, but it won't stop the spread.
Isolation- in some way or another is the only thing we have that currently stops the spread. Masks and biocides might slow it down usefully.

[alancalverd]

True.
Test, track, trace and isolate.
Mea culpa - too busy working on a test and assuming that quarantine is obvious commonsense in the absence of a cure!