[Jolly2 (OP)]

There have been numerous reports related to cases earlier then December of 2019 when China first identified the virus.

This cambridge study suggested Covid had been in China atleast since September 2019

Yet there is also evidence that covid was in Brazil in November 2019

France in November 2019

And spain as early as March 2019

So is Spain the most likely source as it is now the earliest sighting?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Fort Detrick was closed in July 2019 because of 6 cases of mishandling biological materials. There were also leaks of agents

Considering it was closed after the leaks happened, could fort Detrick be the original source?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html

Most shockingly a residential home near fort Detrick suffered a respiratory outbreak
https://abcnews.go.com/US/respiratory-outbreak-investigated-retirement-community-54-residents-fall/story?id=64275865

 "He said the outbreak began with the first case on June 30."

This is a few weeks before fort Detrick was closed due to mis management of biological materials.

The retirement home is a 4 hour drive from the facility.

We know they closed fort Detrick in July due to.mis management of materials, we dont know how long that miss management was happening for.  Details as to what actually was released and mishandled is also sketchy as under national security the America government has refused to comment or allow a open investigation.

Another question:-
We know Donald Trump claimed to have seen evidence that covid 19 had come from a laboratory. Could it be that the evidence he saw was from fort Detrick?
But rather then accept responsibility he sort to take an opportunity to blame China?

[Bored chemist]

"Where did covid 19 originate?"
Wuhan.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

"Where did covid 19 originate?"
Wuhan.

A theory not a fact you should be more scientific.

[Bored chemist]

A theory not a fact

A bit like

covid was in Brazil in November 2019

France in November 2019

And spain as early as March 2019

We know Donald Trump claimed to have seen evidence that covid 19 had come from a laboratory. Could it be that the evidence he saw was from fort Detrick?

you should be more scientific.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

A theory not a fact

A bit like

covid was in Brazil in November 2019

France in November 2019

And spain as early as March 2019

We know Donald Trump claimed to have seen evidence that covid 19 had come from a laboratory. Could it be that the evidence he saw was from fort Detrick?

you should be more scientific.

Hardly they found samples in sewage. I'm not claiming any facts for the origin You are.

[Bored chemist]

they found samples in sewage.

How sure are you of that "fact"?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

they found samples in sewage.

How sure are you of that "fact"?

Sure enough to post it here for discussion

[Bored chemist]

they found samples in sewage.

How sure are you of that "fact"?

Sure enough to post it here for discussion

Then I guess I can do the same.

"Where did covid 19 originate?"
Wuhan.

Do you have any actual evidence that I'm wrong?
(To do that you would have to prove that it was- for example- possible for the virus to transfer from Spain to china, but not the other way round.).

I also look forward to your explanation of how the virus didn't spread much while it was in Spain, France, Brazil or wherever, but suddenly became massively infections in China.

But, those observations and deductions are merely evidence.
I don't expect you to pay them any attention.

[alancalverd]

The retirement home is a 4 hour drive from the facility.

I.e. most unlikely to have been affected by anything that may have happened at Fort Detrick. A 4 hour drive is a shopping trip in the USA. In Europe it will involve road signs in 3 or 4 entirely different languages.

[Kryptid]

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

[Jolly2 (OP)]

they found samples in sewage.

How sure are you of that "fact"?

Sure enough to post it here for discussion

Then I guess I can do the same.

"Where did covid 19 originate?"
Wuhan.

Do you have any actual evidence that I'm wrong?
(To do that you would have to prove that it was- for example- possible for the virus to transfer from Spain to china, but not the other way round.).

I also look forward to your explanation of how the virus didn't spread much while it was in Spain, France, Brazil or wherever, but suddenly became massively infections in China.

But, those observations and deductions are merely evidence.
I don't expect you to pay them any attention.

China was the first to identify it. Means it spread undetected,  as the cambridge study suggested covid had been in China for around 4 months before they found it.

[evan_au]

spain as early as March 2019...they found samples in sewage

The quality of RNA in sewage is very variable.
- We know that the fatty coat of the SARS-COV2 virus is broken down by soaps and detergents
- Most people flush soap down the sewer when they take a bath or shower
- Most people flush detergents down the sewer when they wash the dishes (and use even more destructive chemicals in the dishwasher)
- Industrial processes can also flush destructive chemicals into sewers
- So RNA is badly degraded when it is collected (within 1 week)
- And, depending on how it is stored, may continue degrading if it is stored for months afterwards.

So we have degraded RNA from stored sewage samples, which is compared to a new viral sequence (SARS-COV2).
- This comparison must exclude the 4 common coronaviruses that are responsible for something like 30% of the "common cold" infections
- And residual infections of MERS and SARS, which have 50% (MERS) or 80% (SARS) genetic similarities to SARS-COV2. These viruses were never eliminated, but since R < 1, the occasional local outbreak will occur, and then die out.
- There are other coronaviruses circulating in bats that may occasionally spill over into humans. But provided they aren't spread by human-to-human contact, these will show up as sporadic positive samples for coronavirus, without going on to create a pandemic, an epidemic, or even a local outbreak.

It is pretty clear that the pandemic form of the coronavirus spread out from Wuhan (although previous coronavirus samples suggest it may have been carried to Wuhan from bats in a warmer province of China, further south).

The very first COVID-19 case detected in Australia was a man who flew from Wuhan to visit his parents in Melbourne.
      - Fortunately, he knew of the pandemic in Wuhan (he had just come from there), self-isolated, wore a mask, and was hospitalized, all without spreading it to anyone else.
 
The very first COVID-19 case detected in Germany was a woman who flew from Wuhan to run a training course in Munich.
      - She only developed symptoms on the return flight to China, but several people on the course were infected.

Listen (43 minutes): https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rn-presents/patient-zero/12523222

[Bored chemist]

. Means it spread undetected,

You may be stunned to realise this, but Chines people notice if all the grannies and granddads are dying.
So it's essentially impossible that it spread undetected through China but somehow magically got there from Spain (or wherever) - where it was also  magically showing restraint and not killing anyone.

Your suggestion is absurd.
Why are you still clinging to it?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

. Means it spread undetected,

You may be stunned to realise this, but Chines people notice if all the grannies and granddads are dying.
So it's essentially impossible that it spread undetected through China but somehow magically got there from Spain (or wherever) - where it was also  magically showing restraint and not killing anyone.

Your suggestion is absurd.
Why are you still clinging to it?

The death rate is low for covid, the symptoms Express themselves like flu, something like 80% of people infected have mild symptoms or are A symptomatic. Deaths only occur with the elderly or people with underlying conditions.

With up to a month incubation time, inherently means the virus will spread, as it has, arround the population atleast a month undetected. With 80% presenting flu like symptoms if any at all.

So your position doesn't match the stats.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Yesterday at 20:19:01
Quote from: Jolly2 on Yesterday at 20:16:16
they found

The issue here is that we don't know how long fort Detrick was releasing materials or even what materials escaped.  How long would it take for a virus to travel a 4 hour drive? Hard to say, but considering covid spread rather rapidly across borders, of 1000s of miles in weeks, a four hour drive is a rather short distance.

We know the out break happened 2 weeks before fort Detrick was closed for miss managing materials. The out break could have been the sign that lead to fort Detricks closing,  but under national security, America isn't revealing what happened

[Jolly2 (OP)]

spain as early as March 2019...they found samples in sewage

The quality of RNA in sewage is very variable.
- We know that the fatty coat of the SARS-COV2 virus is broken down by soaps and detergents
- Most people flush soap down the sewer when they take a bath or shower
- Most people flush detergents down the sewer when they wash the dishes (and use even more destructive chemicals in the dishwasher)
- Industrial processes can also flush destructive chemicals into sewers
- So RNA is badly degraded when it is collected (within 1 week)
- And, depending on how it is stored, may continue degrading if it is stored for months afterwards.

So we have degraded RNA from stored sewage samples, which is compared to a new viral sequence (SARS-COV2).
- This comparison must exclude the 4 common coronaviruses that are responsible for something like 30% of the "common cold" infections
- And residual infections of MERS and SARS, which have 50% (MERS) or 80% (SARS) genetic similarities to SARS-COV2. These viruses were never eliminated, but since R < 1, the occasional local outbreak will occur, and then die out.
- There are other coronaviruses circulating in bats that may occasionally spill over into humans. But provided they aren't spread by human-to-human contact, these will show up as sporadic positive samples for coronavirus, without going on to create a pandemic, an epidemic, or even a local outbreak.

It is pretty clear that the pandemic form of the coronavirus spread out from Wuhan (although previous coronavirus samples suggest it may have been carried to Wuhan from bats in a warmer province of China, further south).

The very first COVID-19 case detected in Australia was a man who flew from Wuhan to visit his parents in Melbourne.
      - Fortunately, he knew of the pandemic in Wuhan (he had just come from there), self-isolated, wore a mask, and was hospitalized, all without spreading it to anyone else.
 
The very first COVID-19 case detected in Germany was a woman who flew from Wuhan to run a training course in Munich.
      - She only developed symptoms on the return flight to China, but several people on the course were infected.

Listen (43 minutes): https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/rn-presents/patient-zero/12523222

This is all speculation, if the virus is embeded in the excrement then the pooh package could very well offer a protective barrier to soaps and detergents, virus particles on the outside of a pooh may well be destroyed but those embedded inside could have been protected

[Bored chemist]

This is all speculation,

A bit like

Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
covid was in Brazil in November 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
France in November 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
And spain as early as March 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:15:55
We know Donald Trump claimed to have seen evidence that covid 19 had come from a laboratory. Could it be that the evidence he saw was from fort Detrick?

virus particles on the outside of a pooh may well be destroyed but those embedded inside could have been protected

Among the things they would have been protected from is getting into a sample vial.
So they would never have made it to a lab to be detected.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Ο

This is all speculation,

A bit like

Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
covid was in Brazil in November 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
France in November 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:12:36
And spain as early as March 2019
Quote from: Jolly2 on 05/02/2021 18:15:55
We know Donald Trump claimed to have seen evidence that covid 19 had come from a laboratory. Could it be that the evidence he saw was from fort Detrick?

virus particles on the outside of a pooh may well be destroyed but those embedded inside could have been protected

Among the things they would have been protected from is getting into a sample vial.
So they would never have made it to a lab to be detected.

Speculative also. Whole point of scientific investigation you speculate, calculate implications of the speculation and then test against experiment and evidence.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

https://theconversation.com/was-coronavirus-really-in-europe-in-march-2019-141582

I ponder what the hold up is. Shouldn't take a year to do a peer review. The hold up is in-of-itself suspicious.

Still returning to Trump he clearly claimed repeatedly that he had seen evidence covid had come from a laboratory and repeatedly sort to blame China.

Hillary Clinton before the 2016 election had a group investigate her greatest weakness when it came to challenging Trump in the election.  The report concluded that her tries to Russia and her assistance in allowing Russia to gain a position  in the company 'uranium 1' and so a substantial part of Americas uranium production would be seen as her greatest weakness if known by the general population.
So Mrs Clinton took her greatest weakness and started accusing Trump of being a Russian asset as a means of deflecting attention from herself and her own ties to country of Russia.

The reason I tell this story is because of Trumps continual allegation that China released the virus; To speak with such certianly implies a desire much like Clinton to deflect attention.

Trumps cliams he saw evidence covid came from a laboratory, I feel looking at this, if he did actually  see evidence the evidence was from fort Detrick and so as a means of deflection  he blamed China, but also as a means to wage a cold war.