[Bored chemist]

The evidence suggests it started at the same time.

Same time as a while after Fort D was shut down.
That's just dim.

But a bioweapom escaping from a laboratory that had a mishap is more likely then it escaping from one that didn't.

|Yes, so if it had surfaced in America you would have a point.
But it didn't. "ground zero" was about as far away as possible, geographically and politically.

Also, you seem not to have noticed; covid is a piss-poor weapon.
It hardly kills anyone who would be a soldier; it kills an unlucky 5% of their grandparents.
It isn't a plausible weapon, but it's a very plausible zoonotic infection with  a bat virus.


Since it isn't a bioweapon, it isn't  a bioweapon that escaped from anywhere, is it?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Also not evidence it didn't.

Just like there isn't evidence that COVID didn't begin at Area 51?

Sure, just area 51 isn't a bio weapons lab that was looking into bat Corona viruses, like fort Detrick was.

The evidence suggests it started at the same time. As that is unlikely,  and as some scientists have suggested covid came from a laboratory. Fort Detrick is a far more likely contender.

How does "it started at the same time" somehow point to "it came from a lab"?

Seems a rather bizarre occurrence that a pandemic from a virus would suddenly appear in two place 1000s of miles apart at the same time. Certainly speaks against a natural zoological occurrence, and speaks to an intentional release.

But that's not what I suggest rather a relases from fort Detrick earlier in the year and a cover up by American officials.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

The evidence suggests it started at the same time.

Same time as a while after Fort D was shut down.
That's just dim.

But a bioweapom escaping from a laboratory that had a mishap is more likely then it escaping from one that didn't.

|Yes, so if it had surfaced in America you would have a point.
But it didn't. "ground zero" was about as far away as possible, geographically and politically.

Also, you seem not to have noticed; covid is a piss-poor weapon.
It hardly kills anyone who would be a soldier; it kills an unlucky 5% of their grandparents.
It isn't a plausible weapon, but it's a very plausible zoonotic infection with  a bat virus.


Since it isn't a bioweapon, it isn't  a bioweapon that escaped from anywhere, is it?

Depends what you want the weapon to achieve. Bio weapons that kill, don't spread far.

[Kryptid]

Sure, just area 51 isn't a bio weapons lab that was looking into bat Corona viruses, like fort Detrick was.

How do you know?

Seems a rather bizarre occurrence that a pandemic from a virus would suddenly appear in two place 1000s of miles apart at the same time. Certainly speaks against a natural zoological occurrence, and speaks to an intentional release.

Hardly. All you need is both American tourists and native Chinese present at ground zero at the same time. Nothing artificial required.

But that's not what I suggest rather a relases from fort Detrick earlier in the year and a cover up by American officials.

For which you have not been able to supply evidence.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Sure, just area 51 isn't a bio weapons lab that was looking into bat Corona viruses, like fort Detrick was.

How do you know?

Well area 51 is the well known military base that deals with experimental air craft. While it's a clarified area, I've never seem any suggestion they engage in biological warfare.  They do hide aliens according to some people.

Seems a rather bizarre occurrence that a pandemic from a virus would suddenly appear in two place 1000s of miles apart at the same time. Certainly speaks against a natural zoological occurrence, and speaks to an intentional release.

Hardly. All you need is both American tourists and native Chinese present at ground zero at the same time. Nothing artificial required.

Which can go in either direction.

But that's not what I suggest rather a relases from fort Detrick earlier in the year and a cover up by American officials.

For which you have not been able to supply evidence.

Well we know fort Detrick was a bio weapons laboratory.

We know they were researching bat Corona viruses. 

We know that they had a leak of the materials they were testing.

We know that as a result of the leaks the CDC closed them.

We know 2 weeks before they closed fort Detrick a relatively close old peoples home suffered an out break of a respiratory virus.

And we know that red cross workers 106 of them had caught covid 19 atleast in November and possibly earlier.

We know the virus was not formally identified until China did so at the end of 2019.

And we know many Americans have no health care so any new virus present in the population would go unnoticed easier then it would in  a country like China.

We also know under national security the American administration isn't releasing the details of what escaped from fort Detrick. 

But clearly suspecting fort Detrick to be the sourse of covid a bat Corona virus outbreak, is a stretch.

[Kryptid]

We also know under national security the American administration isn't releasing the details of what escaped from first Detrick. 

Which means there's no evidence that COVID-19 was released from there.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

We also know under national security the American administration isn't releasing the details of what escaped from first Detrick.

Which means there's no evidence that COVID-19 was released from there.

Poor scientists, the security establishment is always going to dance round you.

The evidence is CIRCUMSTANTIAL!

[Kryptid]

The evidence is CIRCUMSTANTIAL!

I never it wasn't. It's just not particularly conclusive evidence.

[Bored chemist]

Depends what you want the weapon to achieve.

In what military scenario would covid be useful?

The evidence is CIRCUMSTANTIAL!

You spelled "imaginary" wrongly.

[charles1948]

Is there any point continuing this debate?

What's it doing anyway on a scientific website.  Why should the origin of CV-19 matter.

Shouldn't we be discussing only how to deal with it. Not where it came from.  Even if it was the Chinese.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Is there any point continuing this debate?

What's it doing anyway on a scientific website.  Why should the origin of CV-19 matter.

Shouldn't we be discussing only how to deal with it. Not where it came from.  Even if it was the Chinese.

Here we go.. scared are you?

It is very important if it's from a laboratory and can be proven, those that developed it might have answers for treatments and cures, it is often the case, they make biological warfare tools to then build defenses against them. If this came from a laboratory they may well have those defenses.

Hence it is important to discuss this, and to investigate to find out. Sure if it's from a laboratory those responsible will seek to deny it. But should it be proven they will be forced to provide their research and that may contain a cure or a better treatment.

Hence it is extremely important to have this debate and have an investigation.  .

[charles1948]

No "investigation" will show that China is to blame.  Because that would lead to either:

1. A trade war with China; or
2. A nuclear war with China.

And neither of these is acceptable.

So China will be found blameless by any investigation.

[set fair]

Also, you seem not to have noticed; covid is a piss-poor weapon.
It hardly kills anyone who would be a soldier; it kills an unlucky 5% of their grandparents.
It isn't a plausible weapon, but it's a very plausible zoonotic infection with  a bat virus.

Not a bad weapon if you wany to cause economic damage though, well if you think it is unstable
(eg you think the instability of ORF 8 means the virus will be gone by easter last year) and your side will escape much damage. It could have escaped a US lab and then have been released in Wuhan to deflect the blame. It could have escaped the Wuhan lab. It could be due to natural zoonotic spillover. The facts are compatible with several possible origins.

The main fact in favour of it being man-made is virologist claiming that it couldn't be man-made. Newly discoverd coronaviruses are routinely tested on human cell culture to evaluate their potential to infect people. Gain of function could improve binding by survival of the fittest in cell culture, then add on some helper proteins so that it can evade the immune system and reproduce more quickly. I doubt it's even difficult. So why are virologists in denial?

Just saying.

[Petrochemicals]

No "investigation" will show that China is to blame.  Because that would lead to either:

1. A trade war with China; or
2. A nuclear war with China.

And neither of these is acceptable.

So China will be found blameless by any investigation.

Plus the fact China has had 10 months to sterilise the entire country. But it is wierd that the wuhan virus lab has a history of containment failure.

[evan_au]

The retirement home is a 4 hour drive from the facility.

The nursing home is a 4 mile drive, maybe someone from fort Detrick had a family member there

So, which is it?
- Do all employees at biolabs drive at 1 mile per hour?
- More likely, residents of nursing homes push their walking frame at 1 mile per hour when visiting their grandchildren at bioweapons facilities...

How do you know that there wasn't a flu outbreak in the nursing home?
- The flu has been known to travel much faster than 1 mile per hour.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

No "investigation" will show that China is to blame.  Because that would lead to either:

1. A trade war with China; or

Trump just spent the last four years engaged in a trade war with China.

2. A nuclear war with China.

And neither of these is acceptable.

So China will be found blameless by any investigation.

The WHO already has. I still feel fort Detrick is a more likely culprit.

I understand if it was released accidentally the scientists involved would have concerns about comming forward. Yet they could be offered immunity from prosecution for doing so. if they did come forward and provide the defensive techniques they developed it would save lives and end the pandemic,  a trade immunity from prosecution for the tools to end the virus.
Ofcourse if this did escape a lab it's not the scientists covering it up but the security services.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

The retirement home is a 4 hour drive from the facility.

The nursing home is a 4 mile drive, maybe someone from fort Detrick had a family member there

So, which is it?
- Do all employees at biolabs drive at 1 mile per hour?
- More likely, residents of nursing homes push their walking frame at 1 mile per hour when visiting their grandchildren at bioweapons facilities...

How do you know that there wasn't a flu outbreak in the nursing home?

It wasn't listed as flu. It was listed as a rare unknown respiratory infection.

We don't know how long the laboratory was releasing materials. I speculate that the outbreak lead to the closure of the lab 2 weeks later.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Also, you seem not to have noticed; covid is a piss-poor weapon.
It hardly kills anyone who would be a soldier; it kills an unlucky 5% of their grandparents.
It isn't a plausible weapon, but it's a very plausible zoonotic infection with  a bat virus.

Not a bad weapon if you wany to cause economic damage though, well if you think it is unstable
(eg you think the instability of ORF 8 means the virus will be gone by easter last year) and your side will escape much damage.

Some people are arguing this. That's it's been intentionally released to destroy the economy.  I'm not prepared to go so far,  but if it was, then the Build back better agenda of Davos, would inherently be a complicit party.

It could have escaped a US lab and then have been released in Wuhan to deflect the blame. It could have escaped the Wuhan lab. It could be due to natural zoonotic spillover. The facts are compatible with several possible origins.

The main fact in favour of it being man-made is virologist claiming that it couldn't be man-made.

Some virolgists are claiming it was man made,  as the quote I often reference from the Norwegian "we have never seen a Corona virus with these properties anywhere in nature but we have in Laboratories there for the most logical explanation is that it has come from a lab."

Newly discoverd coronaviruses are routinely tested on human cell culture to evaluate their potential to infect people. Gain of function could improve binding by survival of the fittest in cell culture, then add on some helper proteins so that it can evade the immune system and reproduce more quickly. I doubt it's even difficult. So why are virologists in denial?

Just saying.

 a fair question.

[Bored chemist]

Not a bad weapon if you wany to cause economic damage though,

Largely to yourself.
That's the big problem with bioweapons.

Shouldn't we be discussing only how to deal with it. Not where it came from.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

But it is wierd that the wuhan virus lab has a history of containment failure.

Not really. "they all do"
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12615-faulty-pipe-blamed-for-uk-foot-and-mouth-outbreak/

It turns out that pathogens are better at escape than we are at containment.

I still feel fort Detrick is a more likely culprit.

You feel that even though it's a closed lab at the wrong end of the planet, when there's no valid reason to suppose that a lab was involved anyway.

Do you see why I think your view is irrational?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Not a bad weapon if you wany to cause economic damage though,

Largely to yourself.
That's the big problem with bioweapons.

But helpful if you had an agenda to completely change the way the economy functions.  I wonder if anyone has been suggesting we use this "opportunity" to totally change the way society works.

Shouldn't we be discussing only how to deal with it. Not where it came from.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

But it is wierd that the wuhan virus lab has a history of containment failure.

Not really. "they all do"
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn12615-faulty-pipe-blamed-for-uk-foot-and-mouth-outbreak/

It turns out that pathogens are better at escape than we are at containment.

Which is why this research should be stopped, there should be an international agreement that biological warfare be banned, just as they did with cluster bombs and land mines.

I still feel fort Detrick is a more likely culprit.

You feel that even though it's a closed lab at the wrong end of the planet,

Its only on the wrong end if Wuhan is the source of the outbreak, try and keep up.

when there's no valid reason to suppose that a lab was involved anyway.

Do you see why I think your view is irrational?

You're stuck on the theory wuhan is the sourse. WHO have already ruled out the wuhan lab, fort Detrick should have a WHO investigation. All I ask for, an investigation, due to the circumstantial evidence that a bio weapons laboratory that was studying bat Corona viruses had a leak.