[CliveG]

I hear ya. Don't blame ya. In the great recession the  DJIA declined 53.7% from 10/9/2007 to 3/9/2009, and I prepared to jump--out of the basement. Glad I didn't sell. Wifey wishes I had jumped. The market rebounded 4 fold. Wished I'd bought more!

In 2008/9 my late wife and I got out quickly and it happened to be the right decision because of her death. I agree that holding on would have been a been a good move UP UNTIL NOW. The problem is that the needed correction did not happen, and the market is very unbalanced and not normal. This time a massive correction will be inevitable.

I have analyzed my current wife's portfolio. They are all good stocks for which she pays a management fee and they are not "churned" for commission, and none are part of an index. So she will hold onto them even though they may be depressed for  long time.

Our current government was running out of money and trying to avoid a "junk" status rating which happened a few days ago. The virus crisis "allows" them to print money without public outcry. And if they go the same way as Zimbabwe the currency will degrade. So many countries are printing money that what should happen is global inflation where it takes more money to buy goods. But the virus is a deflationary pressure because people will not pay high property prices, or rents or even for goods. I am hoping our savings will not lose too much value.

Regrettably my psychic abilities are restricted by God to occasional important bits of information with a broad trajectory and not much detail. The information is still enough to be very useful for broad planning.

[CliveG]

China now outstrips the world in terms of number of patent.

Yes.
But the Chinese people don't get to use that tech, do they? It gets exported.

The point remains that their animal markets and healthcare system are pretty low tech and that's clearly what  I was alluding to.
So, it's your ignorance that's showing.

In the 3 years, 2011, 2012 and 2013, China poured more concrete that the US has poured in its entire history. The high speed trains were marvels of engineering with tracks that are often overhead using an incredible system of moving precast spans onto the supports. Huawei is far ahead. Alibaba is massive and uses high tech. By many measures China is far ahead of the USA. The four largest banks in the world are Chinese. I could go on. You are very out of date. China has surged in ways that would blow your mind. Chinese tourists were everywhere.

The wet market is probably not much different to wet markets (like fish) around the world. Only more exotic. You should see the wet markets in African. In the streets and no hygiene. Which is why it is so surprising the virus did not originate in Africa. Years ago a salesman who traveled globally told me that if one wanted to avoid a bad stomach from local food then he would always eat Chinese.I have always found many Asians to be quite clean. A few years ago there were some cultural problems with spitting but that disappeared about 5 to 10 years ago I think.

Be careful of judging others negatively because you perceive them to be "foreign". Xenophobia is typical of the condition of overcrowding and overpopulation as is current.

[Bored chemist]

China has surged in ways that would blow your mind.

n the 3 years, 2011, 2012 and 2013, China poured more concrete that the US has poured in its entire history.

Thanks  for illustrating my point about

where great social change is taking place

By many measures China is far ahead of the USA.

Yes, but owning and using tech isn't one of them.
https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Media/Households-with-television
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_smartphone_penetration

or healthcare
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita

[Bored chemist]

Be careful of judging others negatively because you perceive them to be "foreign".

Be careful of jumping to unsupported conclusions.

[CliveG]

A Spanish Flu survivor:

Note the use of masks. Note the use of distancing.

A Spanish Flu documentary made Oct 2018:

Note the problems with authorities who made really stupid decisions. Instead of focusing on health they ignored the spread of disease through social gatherings. Their priority was the war and production. This was the USA.

Note the lack of oxygen where people turn blue. The Blue Plague.

Note the quarantine of cities at 33:49 – did not work. San Francisco acted early with quarantine and it worked for the second wave but not the third wave because they did not anticipate it and there was no herd immunity gained from the second wave.

At 35:22 a man was shot for refusing to wear a face mask. The man ignored the first warning shot.

It asks – could this happen again? It warns about corona virus and says it is not about if but when. It says quick response makes the difference between life or death. The US response was slow. China and Singapore were quick.

Lessons ignored. Now, about God's lessons.

[CliveG]

Quote from: CliveG on Yesterday at 12:24:37

    China has surged in ways that would blow your mind.

Quote from: CliveG on Yesterday at 12:24:37

    n the 3 years, 2011, 2012 and 2013, China poured more concrete that the US has poured in its entire history.

Thanks  for illustrating my point about
Quote from: Bored chemist on 02/04/2020 11:59:05

    where great social technical and scientific change is taking place

Fixed that for you. 

[CliveG]

Be careful of judging others negatively because you perceive them to be "foreign".

Be careful of jumping to unsupported conclusions.

Sometimes there is nothing to support a decision (deriving from a conclusion) that must be taken. One prays, or uses Tarot cards. But I always assess the available facts carefully.

You, on the other hand, seem to post a response before engaging your brain to properly understand the context of what has been written. You are a master of nit-picking and cherry-picking to take sentences and words out of context. I have given you some well-meaning good advice. Think about it.

[CliveG]

My wife has been coughing a lot for the last few days. It is cold and raining. I have aches and pains. I feel a little down.

There are stories of testing and masks and quarantine working. It is possible to contain this first wave, but at what cost and for how long. I have mixed feelings. My optimistic side (I am a glass half-full person) says there is hope. My history and God's message is that the worst is yet to come. On one hand I feel I am supposed to spread God's message and on the other hand I don't want to be a doom-sayer - especially if I am wrong about it all.

Sigh. I have chosen a path and I am no quitter. I suppose God knew that in picking me. So I will re-write the second part of the book and publish it online. I guess it is a matter of "Publish and be damned."

[duffyd]

I'd wear an Apollo spacesuit if I had millions. I'd manufacture lightweight, flexible, protective armor made of graphene for drivers and passengers in vehicles. Graphene stops bullets at 600 meters per second, and is 100 times stronger than steel. Let's cut way back on automobile accident fatalities.

[duffyd]

I am supremely confident our economy is going to come back like a raging herd of angry bulls.

[alancalverd]

I'd manufacture lightweight, flexible, protective armor made of graphene for drivers and passengers in vehicles. Graphene stops bullets at 600 meters per second, and is 100 times stronger than steel. Let's cut way back on automobile accident fatalities.

If the armor is flexible it won't alter the outcome of automobile accidents. Fatalities generally arise from the internal flexibility and mushiness of  the human body coming into contact with rigid bits of the vehicle. Seatbelts and airbags reduce the  deceleration. Padding would be better than graphene, then you can add the cooling system from your space suit..

[CliveG]

I am supremely confident our economy is going to come back like a raging herd of angry bulls.

I am not. There needs to be a phased end to lock-downs for a start. Which country are you in?

There are articles about "the end of capitalization" and "the end of globalization". For all the advantages there are some key weaknesses. It is the same weakness as one finds in mono-culture.

This was brought home when a key factory making memory chips burnt down and the whole world suffered a shortage. One of Trumps assessments was that the USA should do more local manufacture. This crisis has exposed the problems with a few individuals making money from manufacture in a distant country as opposed to local manufacture. "Just in time" has no "fat" or slack. It may be efficient in good times but a nightmare in bad times.

South Africa became a manufacturing powerhouse when under sanctions. It made its our own integrated circuits and even made six nuclear bombs. In 1994 the importation of cheap goods from China boosted the economy at first and then devastated local manufacturing. My wife is now considering whether to use her machines to do some local manufacture under the new regime, if it comes. We need the slogan "Gives the locals some of your business".

Countries should always ensure that at least 10% of imports are made locally and that such factories are centers of research as well so as to be able to innovate and have the local expertise to grow quickly in case of global disruptions. Imagine the Irish potato famine being global. If a plant fungus wipes out a section of agriculture then other sectors with similar plants but some diversity should be ready to take over. In economics one learns the need to diversify a portfolio. This is a good general strategy.

Humankind KNOWS this. But greedy businessmen and politicians paid by the greedy businessmen do not want change. Instead of being proactive, they are reactive. China does not have the lobbying the USA and many Western countries have. Survival of the fittest applies to nations as well.

[CliveG]

I'd wear an Apollo spacesuit if I had millions. I'd manufacture lightweight, flexible, protective armor made of graphene for drivers and passengers in vehicles. Graphene stops bullets at 600 meters per second, and is 100 times stronger than steel. Let's cut way back on automobile accident fatalities.

And how about a suggestion for reducing global population without natural disasters - big and small?

[duffyd]

I'd manufacture lightweight, flexible, protective armor made of graphene for drivers and passengers in vehicles. Graphene stops bullets at 600 meters per second, and is 100 times stronger than steel. Let's cut way back on automobile accident fatalities.

If the armor is flexible it won't alter the outcome of automobile accidents. Fatalities generally arise from the internal flexibility and mushiness of  the human body coming into contact with rigid bits of the vehicle. Seatbelts and airbags reduce the  deceleration. Padding would be better than graphene, then you can add the cooling system from your space suit..

I'll take all the advice I can get. Saving lives is the important thing. I was thinking of graphene or a similar material formed into a braided like metal armor. It would be flexible to a point beyond which it would lock into place.I guess graphene cracks pretty easily, unfortunately. One thing's for sure. We can design and manufacture more and better protective equipment for people to use while they travel in cars.

[duffyd]

I am supremely confident our economy is going to come back like a raging herd of angry bulls.

I am not. There needs to be a phased end to lock-downs for a start. Which country are you in?

There are articles about "the end of capitalization" and "the end of globalization". For all the advantages there are some key weaknesses. It is the same weakness as one finds in mono-culture.

This was brought home when a key factory making memory chips burnt down and the whole world suffered a shortage. One of Trumps assessments was that the USA should do more local manufacture. This crisis has exposed the problems with a few individuals making money from manufacture in a distant country as opposed to local manufacture. "Just in time" has no "fat" or slack. It may be efficient in good times but a nightmare in bad times.

South Africa became a manufacturing powerhouse when under sanctions. It made its our own integrated circuits and even made six nuclear bombs. In 1994 the importation of cheap goods from China boosted the economy at first and then devastated local manufacturing. My wife is now considering whether to use her machines to do some local manufacture under the new regime, if it comes. We need the slogan "Gives the locals some of your business".

Countries should always ensure that at least 10% of imports are made locally and that such factories are centers of research as well so as to be able to innovate and have the local expertise to grow quickly in case of global disruptions. Imagine the Irish potato famine being global. If a plant fungus wipes out a section of agriculture then other sectors with similar plants but some diversity should be ready to take over. In economics one learns the need to diversify a portfolio. This is a good general strategy.

Humankind KNOWS this. But greedy businessmen and politicians paid by the greedy businessmen do not want change. Instead of being proactive, they are reactive. China does not have the lobbying the USA and many Western countries have. Survival of the fittest applies to nations as well.

Mom graduated summa cum laude Radcliffe majoring in economics and she frowned on America's symbiotic relationships with foreign countries.

Pent up demand will more than make up for this setback, imho.

[duffyd]

In 1994 the importation of cheap goods from China boosted the economy at first and then devastated local manufacturing.

That is in my next book.

[Bored chemist]

I am supremely confident our economy is going to come back like a raging herd of angry bulls.

Just about everything you have posted here indicates that you have great faith in things for which there is no actual evidence.

[Bored chemist]

Mom graduated summa cum laude Radcliffe majoring in economics and she frowned on America's symbiotic relationships with foreign countries.

My mum taught one of the Spice Girls.
But she's not the one posting here.

Boris Johnson managed a first class honours in Classics at a University that is 800 years older than Radcliffe.
And his idea of dealing with a problem is to hide in a fridge.

"Appeal to authority" is a logical fallacy at the best of times.

Quote from: CliveG on Yesterday at 12:24:37

    China has surged in ways that would blow your mind.

Quote from: CliveG on Yesterday at 12:24:37

    n the 3 years, 2011, 2012 and 2013, China poured more concrete that the US has poured in its entire history.

Thanks  for illustrating my point about
Quote from: Bored chemist on 02/04/2020 11:59:05

    where great social technical and scientific change is taking place

Fixed that for you. 

Are you trying to pretend that social change is not happening? Because that's pretty obviously a silly idea.

Now, about God's lessons.

The ones he "teaches" by randomly killing people?

And how about a suggestion for reducing global population without natural disasters - big and small?

Abolish organisations that say we should "go forth and multiply".

Note the use of distancing.

Stacked just about as close as they could be, given that you needed to be able to get a stretcher between the beds.

Countries should always ensure that at least 10% of imports are made locally

Is that a Yogi Berra quote?

[CliveG]

Quote from: CliveG on Today at 09:35:41

    Countries should always ensure that at least 10% of imports are made locally

Is that a Yogi Berra quote?

I did not understand what you were referring to until after I read this site and then re-read my post. Yogi would have understood perfectly.
Correction
   Countries should always ensure that at least 10% of goods that are typically imported are made locally

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/03/the-50-greatest-yogi-berra-quotes
One I like is:
49. If the world were perfect, it wouldn’t be.
That sums up this atheist argument about the perfection of God.

31. I don’t know (if they were men or women fans running naked across the field). They had bags over their heads.
17. The future ain’t what it used to be.
4. It’s like déjà vu all over again.
- There are some people who, if they don’t already know, you can’t tell ’em.

Yogi apparently said "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Some say if was Neils Bohr and some say it was Mark Twain.

[CliveG]

Quote from: CliveG on Today at 09:37:24

    And how about a suggestion for reducing global population without natural disasters - big and small?

Abolish organisations that say we should "go forth and multiply".

Make it illegal to promote having more babies for whatever reason. Some of the guilty ones are: The Catholic Church is the obvious one. Hassidics are the other. So are many governments like Japan.

Perhaps sterilize women after they have had one child. No good sterilizing the men. Just one man can start his own population explosion. A Swazi king comes to mind.