[alancalverd]

There is an old saying that politics is the art of the possible. Trump is dismantling 200 years of civilisation by doing what is possible. Politics, but bad politics.

A better adage is that good politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. National quarantine is unpalatable; destruction of the economy, permitting endemic disease and burdening future generations with an unpayable debt is unacceptable.

So far, only the New Zealand government seems to have imposed the unpalatable and thus averted the unacceptable. 

[Bored chemist]

So far, only the New Zealand government seems to have imposed the unpalatable and thus averted the unacceptable. 

I think that China has (at least officially) done the same.

[alancalverd]

Which  hole did you pull this from Alan,

The Swedish government statistics that you led me to. Thanks.

Excess deaths in Sweden is just over 5000 for 2020, in a population of 10,000,000: 0.05%

Excess deaths in UK is about  55,000 for 2020, in a population of 67,000,000: 0.08%

Given the much lower population density of Sweden (less than one tenth of the UK) that isn't particularly impressive..

Excess deaths in New Zealand to date: -1200, population 4,800,000: - 0.025%. Yes, NEGATIVE excess deaths compared with the 5 year average. Now that's impressive, even when you include the known 26 COVID deaths.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

There is an old saying that politics is the art of the possible. Trump is dismantling 200 years of civilisation by doing what is possible. Politics, but bad politics.

A better adage is that good politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. National quarantine is unpalatable; destruction of the economy, permitting endemic disease and burdening future generations with an unpayable debt is unacceptable.

So far, only the New Zealand government seems to have imposed the unpalatable and thus averted the unacceptable. 

Back in your rat hole again?

Which  hole did you pull this from Alan,

The Swedish government statistics that you led me to. Thanks.

Excess deaths in Sweden is just over 5000 for 2020, in a population of 10,000,000: 0.05%

Excess deaths in UK is about  55,000 for 2020, in a population of 67,000,000: 0.08%

Given the much lower population density of Sweden (less than one tenth of the UK) that isn't particularly impressive..

Excess deaths in New Zealand to date: -1200, population 4,800,000: - 0.025%. Yes, NEGATIVE excess deaths compared with the 5 year average. Now that's impressive, even when you include the known 26 COVID deaths.

Back in you're rat hole! Canadas population density far lower than both yet isn't any better, doesn't quite add upp.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age

87% of Swedes live in urban areas, which cover 1.5% of the entire land area.

[Bored chemist]

Interesting thing about population density.
It's not clear how much difference it makes.
Within a city (or even a big town) the population density is usually relatively similar regardless of where you are in the world. Once the virus is in a city it spreads through it.
So a major factor is how well one city is connected to the next.
And then there's the interesting question of sub-populations.
Students are a really good example of that.
So, before you rant at eachother any further, I trust you will incorporate those into your models.

It might look more scientific if you left the rats out of it. They don't seem to be a significant vector.

[Kryptid]

Canadas population density far lower than both yet isn't any better

To be fair, dividing Canada's population by its land area will give a misleading figure for population density because the majority of Canadians live near their southern border.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Canadas population density far lower than both yet isn't any better

To be fair, dividing Canada's population by its land area will give a misleading figure for population density because the majority of Canadians live near their southern border.

That was the point!?! It's the amount of urbanisation.

[alancalverd]

I mentioned urban interconnectivity several months ago, when comparing the rates of spread of COVID between the USA and UK. Intercity commuting is far more common in the UK, say between Manchester and Liverpool, Birmingham-Coventry-Leicester, Leeds and York, Glasgow and Edinburgh, than between similar sized conurbations in the USA.  At the time I discussed it, COVID hadn't really become fashionable throughout the USA, but with a bit of Presidential approval it has really taken off in those states and cities where Freedom overrides common sense.

Population density does vary between cities. Singapore, at 8000 persons per square kilometer is denser than London, at 5700 or Stockholm (5000) and vastly outstrips Birmingham at 1700.

With half the population of Sweden, Singapore (with a very comprehensive testing program) is now running at about 10 COVID cases per day compared with 1000 in Sweden. Adjusted for population, Sweden is moving into the premier league with the UK at 10,000.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus is very thorough but unfortunately only covers diagnosed cases and COVID-listed deaths, so it's a bit sketchy in countries with no comprehensive testing, and still dependent on the fashion for reporting COVID as cause of death. 

I remain completely baffled by the reference to rats, and despite the renowned national sense of irreverent humor,  the suggestion that the Sveriges Regeringen statistical service takes the piss out of itself seems unlikely.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

. 

I remain completely baffled by the reference to rats, and despite the renowned national sense of irreverent humor,  the suggestion that the Sveriges Regeringen statistical service takes the piss out of itself seems unlikely.

Avoiding the point and posting unrelated crap whilst feigning ignorange.

 As in above missing the point about taking the piss, Canadas obvious low population density, but high cases despite testing and social distancing. Then waffling on about Singapore or trump in a way that avoids and creates subdifuge around the point of sweden doing rather well despite no masks and lockdown as in the title of the thread despite earlier having posted much to dispute it.

To duck down a rat hole - to do/say something underhand/questionable/untrue and then to dissappear from account. To behave as a rat.

[alancalverd]

To return to the OP. They provably work, but only if you wear them properly.

If you don't understand statistics, I can't help you.

[chris]

So far as I can see it is strongly assumed, that the seriousness of the infection depends on how much of the virus you are exposed to. People with less exposure also have less sympoms or are even asymptomatic.

This cannot be the whole story because most of the Covid-19 casualties are elderly, obese men. There is no reason why exposure should be higher in these individuals specifically and not among younger, female, non-obese groups.

[alancalverd]

At low doses we are looking at the difference between a stochastic risk and a deterministic risk. These are more familiar in the context of radiation harm:

The probability of stochastic  harm depends on the dose, but the outcome depends on the victim. Small doses of ionising radiation increase the probability of expressing cancer, but once you have a viable cluster of mutated cells (viability probably depends on the physiology of the victim) the outcome depends on where it is, not the dose that induced it.  There is a latency period (growth with no clinical symptoms) and there is no inherent recovery process.

The harm from a large dose of ionising radiation is determined by a threshold, beyond which the harm is inevitable and the target cannot spontaneously recover - burn or epilation. Above threshold the harm is proportional to dose and fairly independent of the target. The response is rapid (no latency) and confined to the irradiated area, but if the area is small the inherent trauma repair process may result in containment and survival.

Viral infection generally mirrors stochastic rather than deterministic harm. One photon or one virus might strike lucky,  a whole army is more likely to succeed, and the patient outcome would be the same in either case. A mask reduces the number of inhaled or broadcast infective particles and thus the probability of acquiring or transmitting the infection, but not the consequence of doing so

[Bored chemist]

creates subdifuge

I think you just created that word.

[Bored chemist]

Then waffling on about Singapore

Pointing out that, by most sensible measures, Singapore is doing very well in this crisis, is not "waffle".
It's an indication of where we should look for good practice.

[alancalverd]

I think "subdifuge" may have come from the infamous PhD thesis that led to the disastrous invasion of Iraq: SUBterranean DIffusion and centgriFUGE plant for uranium enrichment.

It's a neat word, but AFAIK these are located in Iran, not Iraq, and you wouldn't expect a US president to know the difference.

[alancalverd]

People don't wear masks at home, and I cannot see anyone realistically entertaining that prospect in the near future.

When I were a lad, we wore gas masks whenever the sirens sounded. Seriously impeded the ingestion of jellied eels or tripe, depending on where you lived.

[Bored chemist]

you wouldn't expect a US president to know

That's a terrifyingly long list.

[set fair]

I understand population-weighted  density is a better metric than simply density. It measures how far, on average, people are from their nearest neighbour... I think, perhaps somebody can elaborate.

[alancalverd]

Even that isn't a great metric since the probability of A infecting B decreases roughly with the inverse square of the distance between them when A exhales. I live 5000 miles from one of my clients and thoroughly enjoyed my visits but we don't meet in the factory these days in  case someone breathes over someone else in the boardroom! 

On a more sensible scale, the population density in the London suburbs is fairly low but the probability of infection on a commuter train into the city is quite high.  Inter-urban commuting is a significant epidemiologial variable, and there's a lot more in the UK than in many other countries.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

I think "subdifuge" may have come from the infamous PhD thesis that led to the disastrous invasion of Iraq: SUBterranean DIffusion and centgriFUGE plant for uranium enrichment.

It's a neat word, but AFAIK these are located in Iran, not Iraq, and you wouldn't expect a US president to know the difference.

I'm guessing BC is posting BS again for you.