[Bored chemist]

Gonna disagree,

Disagreeing with facts makes you look like a troll.
People who are stuck at home in bed can't spread the bug very far.

[Bored chemist]

Asymptomatic people have a lower amount of virus and so don't propagate as much virus.

Or we can ignore the troll, and look at the facts.
"Conclusion Approximately one-fifth of the individuals without severe symptoms were asymptomatic, and their viral loads were comparable to those in symptomatic patients. A large proportion of mildly symptomatic patients with COVID-19 or asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 showed persistent positive upper respiratory RT-PCR results at follow-up."

from
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/76/1/61

Or
"Findings  In this cohort study that included 303 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection isolated in a community treatment center in the Republic of Korea, 110 (36.3%) were asymptomatic at the time of isolation and 21 of these (19.1%) developed symptoms during isolation. The cycle threshold values of reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic patients were similar to those in symptomatic patients."
From
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235

[evan_au]

The food market hypothesis is pretty much now dead in the water.

It would be more accurate to say "The food market hypothesis is now recognized as only part of the story."
- Undoubtedly, many of the early cases picked up COVID-19 through contacts who worked at the food market, or who had visited the food market. That's why it was shut down so quickly, early in the pandemic.
- But the WHO team asked for re-analysis of the earliest cases, and recognized nearly as many cases that did not have an obvious association with the food market.
- That means there was other cluster(s) of cases whose source has not yet been determined (and it will be pretty hard, a year later!)

virus 91% and 96% similar to sars cov2 in Bats in Cambodia and Thailand

It was identified quite early that the Hubei province (where Wuhan is located) is too cold to host significant populations of bat species year-round.
- The bat coronaviruses published by Wuhan/US researchers around 2015 came from warmer provinces to the south.
- Undoubtedly, other bat coronaviruses will be circulating in more tropical countries around China's southern border
- The illegal (and legal) wildlife trade does not respect national borders
- It just means that the food market is still considered as one epicenter of the human-transmissible COVID-19 outbreak.

Sick peoples immune systems are having a harder time responding

When you say "sick", the usual early viral symptoms of fever, malaise, tiredness, etc are a side-effect of interferons which are initial response of the body to a viral infection, ie part of the immune response.
- SARS-COV2 is unusual in that it has an interferon suppressor gene, that inhibits interferons, so you are less likely to feel "ill"
- This allows SARS-COV2 to grow and spread from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals (which has made it much harder to contain than the earlier SARS Coronavirus pandemic).
- So the people who immediately feel ill have a quicker immune response.

Whether you feel sick or not does not directly affect the virus replication and spread through breathing and talking - what it affects is whether you are likely to go outside and spread it
- However, people who get an interferon response have an early-warning signal to their immune system, so their immune system has a head-start in addressing the infection.

Many of the people who get severely ill with COVID-19 have damage to their lungs caused by:
- viral replication in their lungs
- the immune system attacking and killing infected cells in their lungs

Ironically, there are some people who can be severely ill without feeling ill
- The first symptom is that their family notices that their lip look a bit blue
- Or they collapse in the street
- A blood oxygen test shows that their blood oxygen content is very low
- Because their lung function is severely impaired - this shows up as a "ground glass" texture on X-Rays
- But they never had the traditional classic "viral" symptoms, caused by interferon

PS: There are some other symptoms that seem specific to SARS-COV2, around loss of sense of smell and taste. This is because SARS-COV2 sometimes attacks and kills the smell sensors in the nose. For some people, this is the only symptom; fortunately, anosmia is not immediately fatal.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

The food market hypothesis is pretty much now dead in the water.

It would be more accurate to say "The food market hypothesis is now recognized as only part of the story."
- Undoubtedly, many of the early cases picked up COVID-19 through contacts who worked at the food market, or who had visited the food market. That's why it was shut down so quickly, early in the pandemic.
- But the WHO team asked for re-analysis of the earliest cases, and recognized nearly as many cases that did not have an obvious association with the food market.
- That means there was other cluster(s) of cases whose source has not yet been determined (and it will be pretty hard, a year later!)

Another cluster that has nothing to do with the food market.

virus 91% and 96% similar to sars cov2 in Bats in Cambodia and Thailand

It was identified quite early that the Hubei province (where Wuhan is located) is too cold to host significant populations of bat species year-round.
- The bat coronaviruses published by Wuhan/US researchers around 2015 came from warmer provinces to the south.
- Undoubtedly, other bat coronaviruses will be circulating in more tropical countries around China's southern border
- The illegal (and legal) wildlife trade does not respect national borders
- It just means that the food market is still considered as one epicenter of the human-transmissible COVID-19 outbreak.

Still have to find the intermediary

Sick peoples immune systems are having a harder time responding

When you say "sick", the usual early viral symptoms of fever, malaise, tiredness, etc

Ok when I was referring to "sick" I was referring to people who were seeing greater cell infection and so greater viral replication, which the immune system was having trouble suppressing, this leading to greater viral production, compared to an immune response that managed the amount of cell infection better. But I take the point potentially people can be sick and not realise it.

That ofcourse suggests a variation amoung Asymptomatic people where some are actually sick but not showing any symptoms and others have a low viral load infection which the body is managing to suppress and destroy.

[Bored chemist]

Ok when I was referring to "sick" I was referring to people who were seeing greater cell infection and so greater viral replication, which the immune system was having trouble suppressing,

It hardly matters what you were referring to; you were wrong.

"Conclusion Approximately one-fifth of the individuals without severe symptoms were asymptomatic, and their viral loads were comparable to those in symptomatic patients. A large proportion of mildly symptomatic patients with COVID-19 or asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 showed persistent positive upper respiratory RT-PCR results at follow-up."

from
https://thorax.bmj.com/content/76/1/61

Or
"Findings  In this cohort study that included 303 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection isolated in a community treatment center in the Republic of Korea, 110 (36.3%) were asymptomatic at the time of isolation and 21 of these (19.1%) developed symptoms during isolation. The cycle threshold values of reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic patients were similar to those in symptomatic patients."
From
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2769235

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Back to bats, Chinese scientists have found a SARS cov virus 91% and 96% similar to sars cov2 in Bats in Cambodia and Thailand. Neither are adapted to human transmission,  but it could be either the initial virus used for gain of function research or the source of the virus that jumped to an intermediary somewhere in nature. The samples were found after re-examination of frozen samples kept in storage, so the virus was clearly recorded at some point in the past.

I suppose the WHO will be looking at Thailand ferret badger farms now.

[Petrochemicals]

08:51:40

Recently published Politco Article speaks of the Wuhan Laboratory as the most likley source of Covid19


https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322


Article talk about how diplomats in 2017 and 2018 had expressed concerns about the Wuhan Laboratory in terms of its activities and safety standards. All of which is rather hilarious when the American Laboratory also engaged in the same research actually had a leak and was closed yet isnt even mentioned.

Wuhan, I can see why this is in new theories.

Why is that?

The food market hypothesis is pretty much now dead in the water. Especially as the first recorded patient had no connection to the market at all.

My only point with regard to the article was that, while they argue for a laboratory release as the most likely source they simply ignore Fort Detrick which had a leak 4 months before we see the first cases

Wuhan is not a new theory, The first patient was probably retired as a guess, but I'm willing to be cOrrected. 66 percent of all carriers are asymptomatic, 99.9 percent of extreme cases are over 50.

[Bored chemist]

they simply ignore Fort Detrick which had a leak 4 months before we see the first cases

Because, if covid had leaked there, then there would have been an outbreak of covid there.

Unless you can explain how a virus "slept" for 4 months, you must rule our Fort Detrick.