[CliveG]

Timing, dear BC, timing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

The joke's pushing it but ... it illustrates a point.
For years, people have known out that  exposure to german measles causes a red rash all over and that exposure to the Sun causes melanoma.

You seem to be taking the view that the German officer should blame his walkie talkie for the rash.

Do you not see why that's absurd?

My wife has fair skin and a predisposition to melanoma. And the sun has made her predisposition to skin cancer worse. The question is "Was there a trigger?". If so, what could it be? When one looks at all the scientific studies about cell tower radiation there is a very high probability that the cell tower was the trigger.

If you have a predisposition to a car accident because you are a bad driver with nervous passengers and then a car goes through a red light and hits you in the rear as you are making your turn, how much is the other driver's fault and how much is yours?

You look for the tiniest of excuses to avoid the obvious. You may just be right because there are often multiple factors but what are the chances? Mostly slim to none.

[Bored chemist]

The question is "Was there a trigger?". If so, what could it be? When one looks at all the scientific studies about cell tower radiation there is a very high probability that the cell tower was the trigger.

No, for two reasons.
The first is that the evidence of cell towers causing cancer is- to be polite- sketchy.
And the evidence for sunlight triggering melanomas in fair skinned people is unequivocal.

You look for the tiniest of excuses to avoid the obvious.

And again; get yourself a mirror.

You are looking for tiny excuses to avoid the obvious. Sunlight is carcinogenic.

[Bored chemist]

Wiki, for example, is utterly clear on the issue.
"Melanomas are usually caused by DNA damage resulting from exposure to ultraviolet light from the sun."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanoma#Cause

[CliveG]

Wiki, for example, is utterly clear on the issue.
"Melanomas are usually caused by DNA damage resulting from exposure to ultraviolet light from the sun."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanoma#Cause

Note the qualification ("usually") in your statement We have been through this. Cancers are usually not a one time event but a series of events with multiple mutations until the type of mutation and the surrounding cells facilitate the unbounded growth the cancerous cell.

We have also been though the argument that while UV can indeed do direct double strand breaks, such damage only accounts for maybe 20 percent of the mutations, while Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) resulting from other damage the UV does is responsible for the rest.

ROS is increased by cell microwaves that are pulsed as in cell towers, and the usual radiation formulae also apply - greater duration and greater strength both increase the probability. A cell tower such as the one next to us gave high intensity (I measured it) and 24/7 exposure.

[CliveG]

The first is that the evidence of cell towers causing cancer is- to be polite- sketchy.

Cell company propaganda. Which you are happy to spread and subscribe to.

Do you still use your radium dial watch, and tell people that the small amount of radiation actually promotes well-being?  It does kill cancer cells does it not?

And do you still drive your leaded gasoline car because for eleven years the industry scientists were saying that the environmental lead being found had always been there?

[Bored chemist]

Cell company propaganda.

Show us the evidence.

(have you noticed that you get asked that a lot?)

Do you still use your radium dial watch,

No, but I'd not worry if I did.
It's an alpha emitter in an enclosed space. The external dose is pretty small.

And do you still drive your leaded gasoline car because for eleven years the industry scientists were saying that the environmental lead being found had always been there?

No
I actually looked at the evidence. The isotope ratios made it quite clear that the lead was from teh petrol.

That's the difference; I actually know enough stuff that I can assess evidence for myself.

While you simply ignore it.

All the evidence shows that sunlight causes cancer.

[alancalverd]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 10:44:05Wiki, for example, is utterly clear on the issue."Melanomas are usually caused by DNA damage resulting from exposure to ultraviolet light from the sun."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanoma#CauseNote the qualification ("usually") in your statement We have been through this.

And as with any cancer, there's strong genetic element in the statistics, with red-haired "Celtic" ancestry very significant, whilst "Scandinavian" blondes (who tend to bronze rather than burn in the sun) are less prone to melanoma. Check your wife's family tree!

[alancalverd]

Quote from: CliveG on Today at 11:12:41Do you still use your radium dial watch,No, but I'd not worry if I did.It's an alpha emitter in an enclosed space. The external dose is pretty small.

Though enough to reliably print the numbers on a nurse's film badge (she was wearing her mother's watch over the badge) and scare the willies out of a chiropractic client who kept his grandad's old aviator watch in the same drawer as his TLD badge.

[CliveG]

CNN. 300,000 cases globally. 13,045 deaths. Ratio is 4.35 percent. And this is while ICU and ventilators are available. BC, what evidence are you using to get less that 1%. 4.35 % is bad!

I said to my wife that the virus is targeting the older people, and this possibly a good reduction of the population. This might mean that God had a hand in not allowing worse viruses to mutate. Her response was "But then you lose a lot of the wise people". Hmm. No fool like an old fool, so there is some benefit. The corrupt SA politicians are old struggle veterans who live high on the hog and are not healthy.

Perhaps the test of the wise people is those who practice common sense measures like gargling with salt water, inhaling and sniffing colloidal silver spray, drinking colloidal silver, inhaling heated air, not using fever reducing drugs and staying warm, breathing deeply (restricted breathing brings on pneumonia which is why one does not bandage broken ribs), and praying (it reduces stress which helps immunity). They may not be cures which meet scientific study standards but I am sure they are helpful enough to perhaps survive.

Take an Excel spreadsheet and do the following.

Day 1  26,000 cases
Day 4 twice the day 1 number
Day 8 twice the day 4 number
and so on.
It takes 52 days to reach 110 million which may be where "herd immunity" kicks in.

So if left unchecked a third of the USA will be infected.  5 million will die.

If the curve is flattened so that it takes 8 days for doubling then it take twice as long to get 110 million. 104 days.

If 16 days for doubling then we have 208 days.

Flattening the curve simply stretches out the time. Hence the USA could be looking at a year or longer.

Socialism. Is that where the government takes over and issues money to "undeserving people too lazy to find a job and work"? One that ensures the "poor" are looked after? Universal health care and spreading the wealth? Is that what this pandemic is doing? Forcing social welfare and reducing inequity where the rich get richer and to heck with the rest?

God forbid some would say. But I say it is part of God's plan.

[CliveG]

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 10:44:05Wiki, for example, is utterly clear on the issue."Melanomas are usually caused by DNA damage resulting from exposure to ultraviolet light from the sun."https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melanoma#CauseNote the qualification ("usually") in your statement We have been through this.

And as with any cancer, there's strong genetic element in the statistics, with red-haired "Celtic" ancestry very significant, whilst "Scandinavian" blondes (who tend to bronze rather than burn in the sun) are less prone to melanoma. Check your wife's family tree!

You are quite right. She is genetically predisposed. But does that mean one can ignore environmental triggers (like sun radiation). I say there is sufficient evidence to include cell tower radiation.

[CliveG]

Quote from: CliveG on Today at 11:12:41Do you still use your radium dial watch,No, but I'd not worry if I did.It's an alpha emitter in an enclosed space. The external dose is pretty small.

Though enough to reliably print the numbers on a nurse's film badge (she was wearing her mother's watch over the badge) and scare the willies out of a chiropractic client who kept his grandad's old aviator watch in the same drawer as his TLD badge.

Nice anecdotes. The increase in cancers may be small but if you are the one who gets an avoidable cancer by not wearing a radium watch, you would be happy. It is all in the numbers.

Same with asbestos. My father got exposed to all sorts of carcinogens including asbestos and the sun (he was also fair), and yet he died at 95 because he refused to eat.

[Bored chemist]

Though enough to reliably print the numbers on a nurse's film badge (she was wearing her mother's watch over the badge)

That's hardly credible.
Scattering and distance would mean they were blurred out of existence..

[Bored chemist]

And as with any cancer, there's strong genetic element

Yes; she's white, and fair.
OK so sunlight is carcinogenic in fair skinned people.
We know that.

BC, what evidence are you using to get less that 1%.

Wrong tense, but here's the data I was using
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
For anyone under 50 (and that's most people) it's below 1%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
Happy?
"So if left unchecked a third of the USA will be infected.  5 million will die."
So that's 5 million dead out of about 300 million people. About 1.7%.

It's not as if our estimates are that different.

I said to my wife that the virus is targeting the older people,

Like practically every other virus, and indeed, illness known.

Don't you see why it's absurd to pretend that this is some "magical" god- given plague?

I am sure they are helpful enough to perhaps survive.

I say there is sufficient evidence to include cell tower radiation.

Then show it to us.
We keep asking.
You keep failing

[alancalverd]

That's hardly credible.Scattering and distance would mean they were blurred out of existence..

I saw the film. A ring of black blobs around two faint grey circles. There's very little scatter of radium gamma radiation (100 - 600 keV) in glass, or  even metals - it's been used for industrial radiography in the past. Sadly, I've lost the old pocket watch I used to use for assessing lead protection in x-ray rooms, and now have to lug a veterinary x-ray machine around. Had an interesting callout a year ago when a couple of ex-US Navy aviation sextants set off the alarms at Heathrow, and I remember some years back when we cleared out a cupboard at the National Physical Laboratory to discover the source of anomalous readings was a textbook that had been the personal property of Marie Curie, now in a lead box in the museum!     

[Bored chemist]

reliably print the numbers

A ring of black blobs

Catch hold of the goal posts there.

[CliveG]

That's hardly credible.Scattering and distance would mean they were blurred out of existence..

I saw the film. A ring of black blobs around two faint grey circles. There's very little scatter of radium gamma radiation (100 - 600 keV) in glass, or  even metals - it's been used for industrial radiography in the past. Sadly, I've lost the old pocket watch I used to use for assessing lead protection in x-ray rooms, and now have to lug a veterinary x-ray machine around. Had an interesting callout a year ago when a couple of ex-US Navy aviation sextants set off the alarms at Heathrow, and I remember some years back when we cleared out a cupboard at the National Physical Laboratory to discover the source of anomalous readings was a textbook that had been the personal property of Marie Curie, now in a lead box in the museum!     

I accepted what you stated, and had an image in my mind of what you are describing. I did not expect the numbers to be distinct but a ring of blobs seems reasonable.

I have very little to post today. A 45 year old neighbor died of throat cancer yesterday. The purchasers of our house have had their bond application approved but it will take a few weeks for the paperwork. I still pray that the corona does not shut down the process by shutting offices. They are so inefficient as it is. I am trying to wind up my uncle's wife's estate but the probate is taking forever due to incompetence and nit-picking.

I have to do some serious work at the sale home to get an electrical certificate of compliance. I was dreading doing that work because of the cell tower but the quote we got from an electrician was way too high. I will be wearing a mesh helmet and a mesh jacket to reduce my exposure. I feel like a worker being sent into Chernobyl.

Sorry - but the world is in a very chaotic state at the moment. My baby boom generation had the ideal time to grow up in. It was idyllic. The 60s and 70s - amazing music. There was work and home ownership. Everything was rosy.

The elite today just care about more profit and only pay lip-service to philanthropy. Corporations spread "green lies". If one want to truly see how badly off our planet is then watch some RT documentaries about deforestation, poverty, war, drug lords, corruption and the like. Some are on Al Jazeera and some on BBC. A very few on CNBC - but they are almost apologetic in taking away blame.

The US population takes the attitude that it is not their problem while the US made bombs fall in other countries. Some would claim that the corona virus is the pay-back. War in the homeland of the USA with an enemy that tanks and bombs cannot defeat. No wonder Trump wants to blame another country like China. Cuba and Russia and China sent supplies and doctors to Italy. SA had the Cuban doctors here. That was a great benefit to a socialist system - teachers and doctors were seen as valuable. Lessons to be learnt.

Capitalism is great - but the corporations have their begging bowls out for grants - not loans. "Just in time" manufacture and distribution is great but it cannot tolerate even small disruptions. Corporations claim to act in their shareholder interests by not having a cash reserve - so there is no fat for the lean years. Contrast Boeing and Airbus. They could learn from the Bible.

[CliveG]

Quote from: CliveG on Yesterday at 14:53:36

    BC, what evidence are you using to get less that 1%.

Wrong tense, but here's the data I was using
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
For anyone under 50 (and that's most people) it's below 1%
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
Happy?
"So if left unchecked a third of the USA will be infected.  5 million will die."
So that's 5 million dead out of about 300 million people. About 1.7%.

It's not as if our estimates are that different.

I keep saying your reading comprehension and your math needs some work.

My figure of 5 million deaths was based on 110 million infections (one third of 327 million). About 4.6%. The mortality rate is the number of deaths per infections, not total population.

[CliveG]

From an email I got from EHT.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-03-16/commentary-pollution-in-italy-china-and-iran-worsens-the-coronavirus-impact?utm_source=eht&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=covidpollution

Here are a some additional details that to add further context to the op-ed:

1) Tobacco smoking rates in Iran and Hebei, China are among the worst in the world. Numbers are telling: According to The Lancet, in 2015 while one in 10 men globally are Chinese, they smoke a third of all cigarettes in the world. If smoking patterns do not change — Professors Zhengming Chen and Richard Peto warn — China is on target to have more than 2 million lung cancer deaths within the next decade.

2) Air Pollution in Hebei: Real-Time Air Quality Index Visual Map shows that even with the reduced rate of production now, the center of steel-making Hebei regularly produces stifling levels of air pollution. It is notable that Chinese standards for declaring levels unhealthy or dangerous are much higher than standards in other nations.

3) Not only is factory production in China taking place under conditions that would never be accepted in most nations, especially in wintertime, air in both these areas regularly can contain levels of ultrafine particulate air pollution from straw and garbage burning, coal-burning, and diesel engine byproducts of incomplete combustion that would be illegal in most developed regions.

These citations do not at all mean that we are off the hook in the United States, but the lethality of COVID-19 could be lessened, especially if this nation comes together and takes very seriously the need for social distancing. If anything, the correlations strengthen the case for the U.S. keeping up its relatively effective environmental protections. 

As economists would note, there are major co-benefits from policies that reduce pollution. Among the co-benefits of the shutdowns necessitated by coronavirus restrictions will turn out to be major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

Wireless radiation is one of the many types of environmental pollution that can damage the immune system. The rollout of 5G is increasing our daily exposure to wireless microwave radiation from the new 5G/4G network antennas. Wireless microwave radiation increases the chances that cells will lose their capacity to repair damage that occurs everyday as a result of the normal processes of oxidation by increasing oxidative stress. Research has found continued oxidative stress can lead to chronic inflammation.

Scientist Nesrin Seyhan and her colleagues from Gazi University have shown that wireless radiation can damage tissues in the lung, heart, and liver. People with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease and cancer) are more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with any virus, including COVID-19. A large body of research indicates the 5G/4G network could contribute to a myriad of health problems.

Thus, it is more important than ever to halt 5G and to reduce our daily wireless exposure. 

https://ehtrust.org/?s=devra+davis

[CliveG]

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-michael-baden-coronavirus-lasting-damage-ventilators-lung-scar-tissue

"The deaths will occur largely because of the severe lung infection that coronavirus can cause. But, remember, 99 percent of people... from the statistics of deaths so far, will recover. Those who will die will largely die from lung infection," Baden told "America's News HQ."

"We don't know how many people will have scarring from the lungs that will be present five, 10, 15 years from now and cause shortness of breath and illness then. We only have about a month of experience here," he added.

The doctor has a point. My right lung is badly scarred by childhood pneumonia (which I never knew I had until New Zealand wanted to refuse me permanent resident status because they thought it was TB) and by the bat fungus. The world population MUST reduce to be sustainable. The book "Pandemics Progress" tells the story of humankind encroaching on animal habitats. The South American deforestation gave a number of clear examples of epidemics arsing from ecological changes.

In South Africa the story is told of the tribe that killed off the crocodiles because one ate a child - the village then suffered a malaria outbreak.

https://www.sabisabi.com/news/newsupdates/predators-at-play/
Predators can and should be considered the ultimate habitat managers. Take, for instance, the role that crocodiles play in aquatic environmental management. They may not be the most wanted viewing animal, but they are at the top of the pile in freshwater habitats. Mosquitos breed in water and in a natural ecosystem mosquito larvae are preyed on by fish such as barbs and tilapia. In turn the barbs and tilapia are eaten by catfish thus keeping their numbers in check. The staple diet of small to medium sized crocodiles is catfish. Thus, through an ‘eat and be eaten’ chain, populations of mosquito larvae, barbs, tilapia and catfish are kept in equilibrium. You may wonder what is keeping the crocodile population under control. Nature’s management skills of course! In the wild the mortality rate of young crocodiles is extremely high as storks, ground hornbills, monitor lizards and even fish eagles consume the eggs and young crocodiles – so, the population is kept in check.

If however we were to remove the apex predator, i.e the crocodile, from this fresh water ecosystem what would happen? In short, a ripple effect of considerable magnitude. Without crocodiles the catfish population would explode, which in turn would decimate the tilapia and barb populations. Due to the subsequent dearth of mosquito larvae predators a massive rise in the numbers of mosquitoes would ensue. If it were a malaria area this could potentially cause a rampant increase in the number of cases of malaria. So, although not immediately apparent, crocodiles help control malaria!

[Bored chemist]

I keep saying your reading comprehension and your math needs some work.

The mortality rate is the number of deaths per infections, not total population.

The thing that matters is how many people die, not how many get infected.
The death rate will be about 1 or 2%.

However, you seem to be grasping very tightly to the straw that 1% isn't the same as 2 or even 4, while ignoring the actual point.
(You can tell it's the point, because it's actually on topic)
Even a 5% death rate does not reduce reduce the population much, of for long.
So, if it's God's solution to overpopulation, it's incompetent.
Why do you praise such a rubbishy God?