India threatens to deprive Pakistan of Indus River's water

The Indus River sustains millions of people across India and Pakistan, weaving through one of the world’s most volatile regions. In 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty - an extraordinary agreement between these hostile neighbours - divided its waters. And the treaty has survived wars and diplomatic standoffs in the decades that have followed. But today, that fragile accord faces mounting threats. Recent terror attacks in Kashmir have reignited tensions; and the Indian leadership have hinted that, by way of reprisal, restricting the water flow to Pakistan could be on the cards. As dam projects accelerate and trust deteriorates, water is no longer just a resource: it's becoming a political weapon. Pakistan fears that, one day, the taps could be turned off entirely. We asked Sajjan Gohel, International Security Director at the Asia-Pacific Foundation and Chairman of NATO DEEP’s Global Threats Advisory Group, to explain what has put water at the heart of this heated dispute between India and Pakistan, and whether it really is scientifically feasible to cut off a whole country from such a massive water supply…

Sajjan - The Indus Water Treaty arrangement consists of six rivers. You have the eastern tributaries of the Indus, the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej and then you also have the western tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab. All of them are located in the Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir in the north of South Asia.

Chris - And who controls the terrain that they originate from and flow through?

Sajjan - While most of the Indus river system originated in India. They flow into Pakistan so that gives India the upstream control which has often at times caused tensions in the past. Both countries realise that potential prolonged disputes over the water could escalate into a war and what it could also mean is that tensions would always play out.

Chris - And how when that treaty came into being was the water divvied up? And is there a sort of a share? So one country is allowed a certain proportion, the other countries allowed the rest or is it just that they agree that someone's not going to dam the whole thing?

Sajjan - The treaty governs how India is allowed to use or restrict water especially from the western rivers that are primarily used by Pakistan. It's designed to ensure the free flow of water and India ultimately does control the flow of it. It is an example of how it has actually continued despite various conflicts that India and Pakistan has fought going back from the wars in 1965, 1971, 1999 and yet the Indus water treaty still continues to exist and the waters continue to flow.

Chris - In recent weeks though we've seen tensions escalate and now India is saying they may shut off the water supply. Is that actually feasible though? Have India got anywhere to put that much water? Because it's not trivial if you have that water flowing off the Himalaya, you can't just say we'll return the tap off.

Sajjan - There is potential for India to do some activity that could cause problems for Pakistan. Track back to 1948, just months after partition, India temporarily stopped water flow to some Pakistani canals from the Ferozepur Headworks. So that heightened tensions and demonstrated the urgent need for there to be some kind of formal agreement. But you're absolutely right, it's not like there's a tap that India could just switch off. It's also worth pointing out that India suspending the treaty doesn't mean that it's going to actively turn off the flow of the river system. It is perhaps a diplomatic move to put pressure on Pakistan after the terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir.

Chris - Do we know if India did do that? How many people are likely to be impacted?

Sajjan - Well, if India was to take action, this is something that would ultimately only be assessed over a period of weeks and months. It's not something that could be instantaneous. Keep in mind that as these rivers, particularly the ones that I was mentioning, the ones that flow into Pakistan, they are important for Pakistan's agricultural economy. It could have significant impact on Pakistan's farming industry, which is in many ways the breadbasket for the country, especially in the Punjab province. So it would have that impact. And the other aspect is that hydroelectric power is sometimes drawn from the Indus water treaty system. Pakistan experiences huge power shortages in any case, and this in turn could also have that knock-on effect.

Chris - And would there be environmental consequences? Because presumably if they hold this much water back, they've got to send it somewhere subsequently. So were they to let it all go again in one go, that could presumably trigger flooding or massive erosion downstream.

Sajjan - Well, it could definitely have some of those environmental consequences. Again, I think we have to just assess how this draws itself out politically and also militarily as well. I think anything that could cause damage to the environment could also have a knock-on effect to India itself. So I think in many ways, this has been seen as political pressure that's been put on Pakistan because of the fact that it has in many occasions turned a blind eye to the terrorist groups that operate within its borders and then launch these attacks into India. And that has been a major roadblock to peace and progress between both countries. So you're seeing a lot of maneuvering going on and the Indus water treaty has become one of those aspects in that diplomatic maneuvering.

Chris - Do you think India will do this? Or is it just posturing?

Sajjan - At the moment, I think it's premature to speculate that anything is imminent. I think what this is, is frustration that has come out from the corridors of power in India over the fact that terrorism from Pakistan is causing problems. And the attack itself, you have to factor in, caused a lot of commotion and a lot of emotions in India. There is an expectation for India to react. I would say that there is a greater chance that India may make a military move before it does anything significantly to the Indus water treaty.