Mpox crisis deepens, and liquid water on Mars
In the news, we speak to the WHO about the rise in cases of the new variant of Mpox. Also, the final piece of Stonehenge is traced back to its origin, and Nasa's InSight lander finds evidence of liquid water on Mars. Plus, how horses almost deceived scientists into believing they were less sharp than goldfish...
In this episode
01:03 - Mpox an international emergency, says WHO
Mpox an international emergency, says WHO
Maria van Kerkhove, WHO
The World Health Organization has made a major announcement, an international public health emergency over an accelerating outbreak of a new variant or “clade” of Monkeypox - or Mpox - in Africa. The viral infection, which is a close relative of smallpox and causes a painful, blistering rash, swollen glands and high fevers, has been gathering momentum in central Africa, chiefly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Alarmingly, the new clade, which seems to spread more efficiently, also has up to a 10% mortality rate, twenty times higher than the variant that caused an international outbreak two years ago. It’s already spread to neighbouring countries, and Sweden announced they had picked up a case in a returning traveller this week. I spoke to Maria van Kerkhove, director of emerging infection at the World Health Organisation to ask her how she sees the situation evolving…
Maria - The situation with Mpox is we're seeing an upsurge in cases across Africa and in particular in DRC and some neighbouring countries. The concern that we have is that we have this new clade, called clade 1b, which we know is more severe than clade 2, which was responsible for the global outbreak that occurred between 2022 and 2023 which was brought under control in many parts of the world. This clade 1b is more severe, and we have seen a rapid increase in cases in Eastern DRC, we've seen different modes of transmission, primarily through sexual contact. We know that this virus is circulating in sexual networks and it requires a really comprehensive precise response to bring that under control. Our director general declared a public health emergency of international concern, which is the highest alarm that we have over this upsurge in cases of Mpox.
Chris - In policy terms, what does that declaration mean? What action does that translate into on the part of countries around the world?
Maria - Well, what it does is that it triggers our member states, all countries of the world, to really escalate their attention to this and escalate their response. Mpox is very different to Covid. The way that Mpox is transmitting is this contact to contact, physical contact. What is alarming is around the sexual contact that we've seen. Once this virus gets into sexual networks, it's difficult to control but it can be controlled. I think what we need from our member states, from countries, is to really focus on, first of all, understanding the epidemiology, what's actually happening on the ground, increase surveillance, support patients who have Mpox, make sure that we do contact tracing so we can prevent the onward spread through risk communication, through targeted measures in at-risk groups, working with our civil society partners, working with non-governmental organisations, working with local partners to make sure those messages are actually out there to prevent the onward spread. We also want to see governments work together to use medical countermeasures, like diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines, in a targeted way, preventing spread, preventing deaths in the most at-risk groups in these key countries.
Chris - What's our vaccine capacity like? Because when this came along in 2022, obviously different clade but the same vaccines are going to work, there was a problem initially with scale up. Has that been solved or are we still facing a shortfall of vaccines?
Maria - We're still facing challenges on the vaccine front, but I do want to emphasise that vaccines are one intervention. There are so many other interventions that we can additionally use, like I mentioned before, related to the risk communication materials. We saw mainly this clade 2 outbreak, this global outbreak, be brought under control through communities, through risk communication and preventative measures. Vaccines were very helpful, but vaccines weren't really what brought it under control. In the current situation, which is driven by this clade 1b, we will use vaccination as part of the response, but we do see some challenges in terms of supply. We are working through our medical countermeasures group to be able to pull together partners, manufacturers, countries that have vaccines that want to donate those vaccines, or working with manufacturers on the supply to be able to pull that together, to understand the numbers of vaccines that are available when they expire, how we can set up an allocation mechanism based on risk and need to really deal with equity here. But it is a challenge.
Chris - Is the World Health Organisation, therefore, by its response concerned that we are going to see effectively outbreaks in other satellite parts of the world that are connected by travel to this place in Africa. We've already got a case in Sweden being declared now, that's good, it shows the system is working, it's being picked up, but is that the main worry here? That we're going to see this endemicising elsewhere around the world if this gets away from us?
Maria - The main concern we have is in Africa, and what we are seeing is certainly an escalation, an upsurge, an expanding outbreak. These viruses don't respect borders, they travel in people, and there's a lot that we can do to focus the support on individuals to make sure that they have the right information to protect themselves from getting infected. That's one of the key things we need to do right now, is to ensure that people have accurate information, they know where to get care, they know how to get tested, and they know how to prevent the onward spread. Certainly we could see cases popping up in other parts of the world but, as you said, this is showing that the surveillance system is in place. There's no reason why this clade 1 would become endemic in other parts of the world. What we really need to do is put the resources at the source, support the countries in doing what they are so that this expanding outbreak can start to retract. We could do that through a combination of effective measures.
07:22 - Stonehenge Altar Stone came from Scotland
Stonehenge Altar Stone came from Scotland
Anthony Clarke, Curtin University
Stonehenge, the 5000 year old stone circle on England’s Salisbury Plain, was constructed using a mixture of local and imported rocks: archaeologists had matched some of the key stones to volcanic deposits in neighbouring Wales, and others to Salisbury itself. But one rock - the enormous sandstone “Altar Stone” at the centre - is different. It isn’t local stone, and it isn’t Welsh. So where had it come from? Now, using a new analytical technique involving dissecting the rock grain by grain with a laser to understand its chemical profile, scientists at Western Australia’s Curtin University have come to the surprising conclusion that this key part of the structure has travelled a considerable distance to get to the centre of Stonehenge. PhD student Anthony Clarke is the lead author on the study…
Anthony - The people at Stonehenge didn't leave any written record, so we have to turn to the rocks or the megaliths themselves to understand their culture and motives and the history of prehistoric Britain. Stonehenge is actually made up of different kinds of rocks. The large upright sarsen stones are from the local area, near Stonehenge on the Salisbury Plain. The inner ring of upright bluestones are from West Wales in the Preseli mountains. That leaves the central rock called the Altar Stone. Previous work thought it might have come from Wales in the Brecon Beacons, but the ultimate origin was unknown. So it was the last remaining question in the Stonehenge story.
Chris - How do we know that the different stones came from the different areas? What tells us that they have different geographical origins?
Anthony - The large sarsens have a distinct chemistry that has been matched to rocks that are lying on the surface of the Salisbury Plain. The bluestones are igneous rocks, which means they formed from cooling and freezing magma deep beneath the Earth's surface. That allows us to figure out their age because we can figure out when this crystallising process happened. When we do that, we can figure out that they're from these particular mountains in West Wales. But the Altar Stone is a bit different, it's a sandstone, which means it's made up of squished together sand, much like sand on the beach. Now that means that the Altar Stone doesn't have one true age per se. It's lots of different grains of lots of different ages and chemical characteristics all squished together. So figuring out the age of the Altar Stone is a bit more tricky compared to the other rocks at Stonehenge.
Chris - How have you done it then?
Anthony - So if we analyse the Altar Stone, of course, we can't just go up to the Altar Stone and smash off a bit with a hammer, but we have samples collected from the Altar Stone during previous archeological digs in the early 20th century, and very thin slices of rock have been prepared from these samples. And we can look at them under the microscope and we can also hit them with a very microscopic laser, the width of a human hair. When we hit these grains within the Altar Stone, it ablates a very, very small portion of that grain. We can then analyse this gas that comes off from these grains and analyse its chemical and thus isotopic characteristics. Now isotopes let you figure out the age at which that tiny grain or mineral crystallised much like the bigger rocks at Stonehenge, the bluestones, but we are doing it on a grain by grain kind of scale.
Chris - But how do you then map that to where it came from? That gives you a sort of chemical and a structural fingerprint for that stone, how do you then take that away and say, I think it came from wherever.
Anthony - Yeah, that's right. You build up this profile, this fingerprint, it's like a DNA sequence for a rock so you can figure out the parent rocks, the mountain ranges that were eroding and shedding their unique age and chemical characteristics into the rock that would eventually become the Altar Stone. Once we build up this fingerprint of the Altar Stone, we can just simply compare it to rocks throughout Britain, Ireland and Northern Europe. When we did that, it really was so distinctly Scottish. It helped us match to the Orcadian Basin of Northeast Scotland, which is about 700 kilometres away from Stonehenge.
Chris - But that still means that someone thousands of years ago, a group, transported something weighing a huge amount, hundreds of kilometres. Why would they pick on that particular rock? Is there any kind of insight into why they liked that rock and brought it all that way?
Anthony - That's the really fascinating, perhaps unanswerable question in this story. If you look at the Altar Stone, I was there yesterday looking at the rock, it's this rather ordinary looking green/grey sandstone that's partially buried in the Earth. I wouldn't personally transport it over 700 kilometres away from Scotland. But rocks have always fascinated humans, we've always sought the perfect stone for our construction. Today, millionaires will adorn their bathrooms with Calcutta marble from Italy. I don't understand why they do that, and perhaps the average Neolithic Britain felt the same way about the Altar Stone.
Chris - Oh, I might get rid of my bathroom tiles then. But more seriously, Anthony, is there any other geological process that could have brought that stone to a nearer venue, and so they only had to transport it less far, perhaps. We know there were ice sheets and various glacial processes, could it have got there by chance? And then they just thought, well, that's a handy stone, and moved it from the near neighbourhood.
Anthony - That would've been very convenient for a Neolithic Britons, if vast sheets of ice had conveniently delivered it to Salisbury Plain. But if we look at glacial reconstructions during the previous million years or so, when the United Kingdom was a frozen tundra, ice was actually flowing northwards from the vast mountains of Scotland, and it was taking material away from the Salisbury Plain, so it really doesn't look like a natural process carried the Altar Stone. There's also no evidence of glacial movement in the Salisbury Plain, nor on the Altar Stone itself. We don't see any scratches of ice, we don't see evidence of it being carted 700 kilometres away in ice.
Chris - You began by saying that the people who built Stonehenge left us no written record. I suppose their writing is their creation of this interesting structure. What can we infer then, or deduce, about them, what they knew, what technologies they had, based on what you've now shown about the origin of this stone?
Anthony - These are really fascinating questions and it's going to really help us reconsider the connectivity of Neolithic Britain given that we have these two population centres on the Salisbury Plain. And then of course, up in Orkney, which has some really famous neolithic monuments. Skara Brae, the Ring of Brodgar, were these two population centres connected? For many archaeologists, Orkney, Northeast Scotland, was a centre of trade, population and farming. There is also evidence that points towards Neolithic Britain having quite capable shipping technology. We find evidence of amber, pottery and accents all throughout the North Sea area. That must have been delivered to these islands on boat. There's evidence of cattle being moved to Orkney. So if they're able to move substantial cattle, perhaps the Altar Stone was part and parcel.
15:42 - Liquid water on Mars discovered by InSight Lander
Liquid water on Mars discovered by InSight Lander
Michael Manga, University of California, Berkeley
But first, scientists in the United States have discovered a reservoir of liquid water on Mars. It follows analysis of data from Nasa’s Mars Insight Lander, which touched down on the planet in 2018. I’ve been speaking to Michael Manga from the University of California, Berkeley. I began by asking him where the water might have come from…
Michael - Mars was wet, at least episodically, 3, 4 billion years ago. So much of the drawing happened over the last 3 billion years. Where did water on the rocky planets come from? It's still the subject of active debate and controversy. Even for the Earth, we don't know where our water came from, but presumably Mars' water came from the same place: some of it when it first formed, and some from comets later on in its history. But deciphering that question is a really tough one.
Chris - So why do you think, or what sort of hypotheses have you got for where it went? Because if it had similar amounts of water to the Earth, which is not an unreasonable supposition is it? Why have we got so much and Mars is now a prune of a planet, relatively speaking?
Michael - Well, our conclusion is in fact that Mars may actually have as much liquid water in proportion to its size as the Earth. If we look at the surface of Mars right now, there's a large ice sheet at the North and South Pole, and we conclude that there's probably one to two kilometres depth of water in the mid crust of Mars, so not a dry planet by any means.
Chris - How have you been trying to get to the bottom of this or scratch beneath the surface to see where all this water is and if you are right, that there's ice and water within the substance of the surface of the planet.
Michael - Looking deep is difficult because we can't use light, but we can use other types of waves. When Mars quakes happened, they shake the ground, and the Insight Lander had an instrument called a seismometer that measures vibrations of the ground and the speed at which those seismic waves, those vibrations, travel depends on the properties of the material the waves are travelling through: the composition of the rock, whether the rocks are full of fractures, and then what's sitting inside those fractures. We find that they're best explained by having a crust full of cracks and then filling those cracks with liquid water.
Chris - What temperature would it be at then, do you estimate?
Michael - We're talking about depths of about 10 kilometres to 20 kilometres. At those high pressures, the boiling temperature of water is higher than 100 degrees Celsius. And I'm guessing that we're basically seeing temperatures from the top of the water that are about a 100 degrees Celsius down to maybe 200 degrees Celsius at the bottom of the water.
Chris - Was the water always there like that then, or has it retreated inside the planet at some point in its life?
Michael - If we think about how the water cycle and Earth works, we see water continually being exchanged between the atmosphere, the oceans, what we call groundwater, water that sits inside the crust, then water and lakes, rivers and streams. Water is continually being transferred between these different areas. There's no reason to think Mars was much different and what we're seeing now is just the leftover of that groundwater.
Chris - Do you think then the rest of it has boiled off, or been lost into space, for example?
Michael - For sure, some has been lost to space and we know that by measuring isotopes of the element hydrogen in both rocks excavated by impacts, meteorites, as well as the atmosphere. But the amount of water that would've been lost is very small compared to how much water we think we're seeing.
Chris - Now, if there is liquid water there, that obviously has a lot of implications, both geologically but also biologically if there were at some point or still are life processes happening on Mars. If the water's retreated into the crust, is it possible that life processes, life, could have retreated there with it and therefore could it still be in existence in there somewhere?
Michael - I want to make clear of course that we have not found any evidence for life, nor have we established that that water is a habitable environment. But at least on the Earth, where we see water deep underground, we also see microbial life. So if there was once life on Mars, and the subsurface is habitable, meaning there's also an energy source, then this could be one of the settings in which you might want to look for life.
Chris - When you say an energy source, what sorts of things could power life down at those sorts of depths?
Michael - One possibility would be gases such as methane that can reproduce by geochemical reactions, or hydrogen gas. These are some of the energy sources that microbial communities on earth take advantage of underground. Deep underground, you don't have access to light, so photosynthesis is not a great way to get energy.
Chris - We have seen also extreme bacteria deep underground, found in mines under South Africa, for example, that were thriving on radiation, uranium in the rocks. Is that a possible model on Mars as well?
Michael - I don't see any reason why not. We think the rocks on Mars are not that different from the rocks on the earth. And you're absolutely right, when we go deep underground in deep mines in South Africa and Canada, we do find evidence for life, microbial life.
Chris - So how are you going to take this forward then? You've got these observations, they seem to fit with the explanation that there is deep liquid water, it's at high temperature down there, but you've got all this water down there. What are you going to do next to flush out how this got there, whether it really is there and what it's doing?
Michael - One of the puzzles was that, as we go to more shallow depths, the crust gets colder and the liquid water would be frozen as ice. We did try and use the seismic data to look for evidence for the ice and we don't see it. I'm quite curious as to why there's no ice sitting on top of this water. I think the next step is to try and understand better the history of this water, how it connects to the surface environments, and how Mars could have evolved to a state that we see. I'm sure there's much to be learned from continued analysis of that data.
22:03 - Horses cannier than we first thought
Horses cannier than we first thought
Louise Evans, Nottingham Trent University
New research suggests that horses may be considerably smarter than we previously thought. The study - which was carried out by scientists at Nottingham Trent University - found that our equine friends were cognitively one step ahead of the researchers, who were initially baffled that the animals could learn a reward based task incredibly quickly, but then seemed to perform worse than a goldfish when the rules of the game changed. Until they realised that the horses had actually sussed that they didn’t need to cooperate in the next stage of the task, so they didn’t bother! Hoof’d have thought it! Louise Evans carried out the study…
Louise - I trained a group of 20 horses to touch a target, which was a piece of card. Whenever the horse touched the target with their nose, they got a treat. That motivated them to touch the target every time they saw it. To test whether they could control this impulse once they'd learnt it, I introduced a light cue. So I was wearing a cyclist's head torch and whenever the light was on, that was the horse's cue to stop, just like a stoplight on a traffic light system. When I switched the light back off again, they could touch the target and be rewarded with the food like normal.
Chris - And how quickly did they pick it up or did they not pick it up at all?
Louise - Well, that's the thing, Chris, they didn't pick it up very well at all. So we trained this group of horses for three weeks and all of our horses were doing really poorly, which was very concerning to us because we know that goldfish can do this.
Chris - For comparison purposes, how quickly did they learn the first task? As in, I present the target, if they come and touch it, I give them a reward.
Louise - They picked up that task within three training sessions. We were expecting them to be similar with this task. Actually, what we saw was that they were touching the target every single time, regardless of whether that stop light was on. We do ride horses, we sit on their backs, we put ourselves in dangerous positions with horses, so if they're not as smart as a goldfish, that is quite concerning.
Chris - Well, yeah. So what did you think was going on, then? Do you think they were just being obstinate or was there actually something about the training? They just couldn't learn this?
Louise - One of the ideas we had was, maybe horses just can't do this. They're just not able to control that urge to touch the target when there's food involved. We also thought maybe they just can't see the light very well, although we did think that was unlikely because it was quite bright. Our third possible explanation, which is what we wanted to test in this study, was whether horses had maybe figured out a clever way to cheat the game or to take part in this task in a lazy way. What I mean by that is, maybe the horses had figured out that actually, if they touch the target every single time, sometimes they get rewarded and sometimes they don't get rewarded, but nothing bad ever happens, they never get punished. Why would they bother expending the sort of mental energy it takes to pay attention to a light when they could just ignore the light and touch the target every time?
Chris - That means if you introduce some kind of bad outcome if they do it wrong, they touch the target when they shouldn't, will that motivate them more to then comply?
Louise - Well, that was exactly what we tested. We gave the horses another three training sessions, and this time when they ignored the stoplight and continued to touch the target, we gave them a ten second penalty: I stepped away from the horse and I removed the target from their reach so they couldn't access the game.
Chris - And then what happened? Did they learn it after that?
Louise - As soon as we introduced cost, the horses all started observing the light cue and following the rules and playing by the rules. What that suggested to us is that perhaps the horses had actually understood the task all along because if they were just learning from the introduction of that penalty, we would expect them to gradually improve their performance, whereas this was a very sudden switch in strategy that we observed.
Chris - It was more a case of who's playing with who by the sound of it, isn't it? They actually sussed you out. They knew what was going on, they knew the score. This elevates horses above goldfish, presumably. Does this mean you're seeing your horses in a totally new light now then?
Louise - Yeah, exactly. The really exciting part about this study is that we seem to have uncovered an ability that we didn't know horses could do. It's called model based learning. What that means is that the horse builds a mental model or a mental picture of the game, of the different actions they could take and the different outcomes that they might have. That's a really advanced skill. It's a little bit like a human playing chess. You build a mental model, a mental map of, well, if I move this piece here, then my opponent might be able to move his piece here. It's that forward thinking, couple of steps ahead that we didn't know horses were capable of.
Chris - Obviously they didn't evolve this behaviour with you coming along after millions of years of evolution to play a game with them. They must have evolved this to give them some kind of competitive advantage in the wild or in their evolutionary time.
Louise - That's what's really interesting about this, Chris, because horses don't really have to strategise in this way. In the wild, horses generally eat grass, which is available to them all of the time. They don't need to stalk and hunt prey or search for food very often. We're not quite sure yet why horses are able to do this or what benefit it might have to them. We're really hoping that we can do some more research into this and find out that answer to your question.
28:34 - What are the CO2 emissions of wildfires?
What are the CO2 emissions of wildfires?
James Tytko asked Jim Dale from British Weather Services to help with the answer...
Unfortunately, there can be no definitive answer to your question, Jon.
The first thing to say is every wildfire is different. Different locations, different combustible fuel, different meteorological factors, different acreage burned, and different actions taken to quell the fires, if any. The Canadian wildfires of last year and this were much bigger than the Athens fire of now, and even when the spread is curtailed the underlying moss/peat can continue to ‘quietly burn’, releasing further carbon and other gases over time.
We can’t yet assess the carbon release damage from the 2024 Athens fire or indeed the US & Canadian fires of this season as they are ongoing, but the 2023 Canadian wildfire that put masses of smoke into the Great Lakes area and North East US region was off the scale and produced as much greenhouse gas emissions in a single season as would normally occur over 10 seasons, according to the collated data.
The Canadian fires produced about 2bn tonnes of CO2 alone, or ¼ of the total global wildfire emissions. In 2023 it is estimated that 8.6bn tonnes of Carbon dioxide was released globally through wildfires alone, near doubling the estimated 4.8bn annual emissions of the US from all other sources.
So, on that comparison alone, wildfires as a result of climate change have the capacity to overhaul traditional emissions and undo all forms of manmade or even natural climate mitigation. However, in all the short term negatives there is a longer term positive in that the regrowth of vegetation across burned areas takes up much of the carbon released in the fires.
So, it’s very much an ongoing and ever changing situation. However, there is sound evidence that wildfires are potentially doubling the conventional carbon release of human beings worldwide. It’s a worrying scenario for all the reasons given and it’s very likely to become worse within our lifetimes.
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